• 제목/요약/키워드: lagged effects

검색결과 80건 처리시간 0.026초

사례연구: 대구 파티마 병원 폐렴 입원 환자 수에 영향을 미치는 날씨 변수 선택 (Case study: Selection of the weather variables influencing the number of pneumonia patients in Daegu Fatima Hospital)

  • 최소현;이학래;박천건;이경은
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2017
  • 매년 폐렴 입원 환자 수는 증가하는 추세이며, 국내 질환 중 입원율 1위이기도 하다. 주로 박테리아와 바이러스가 주된 원인인 폐렴은 날씨의 영향을 받기도 한다. 본 연구에서는 날씨 변수로는 습도, 일조량, 일교차, 평균온도, 미세먼지 농도를 각각 1일 전부터 27일 전까지의 총 135개 변수를 고려하였다. 날씨와 입원 환자 수에 잠재적으로 영향을 미치는 위험 요인으로 연도 효과, 휴일 효과, 계절 효과를 추가적으로 고려하였다. 벌점화 일반화 선형 모형을 이용하여 폐렴 입원 환자 수와 관련된 변수를 선택하였다.

Analysis of the relationship between garlic and onion acreage response

  • Lee, Eulkyeong;Hong, Seungjee
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제43권1호
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2016
  • Garlic and onion are staple agricultural products to Koreans and also are important with regard to agricultural producers' income. These products' acreage responses are highly correlated with each other. Therefore, it is necessary to test whether there is a cointegration relationship between garlic acreage and onion acreage when one tries to estimate the acreage response's function. Based upon the test result of cointegration, it is confirmed that there is no statistically significant cointegration relationship between garlic acreage and onion acreage. In this case, vector autoregressive model is preferred to vector error correction model. This study investigated the dynamic relationship between garlic and onion acreage responses using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The estimated results of VAR acreage response models show that there is a statistically significant relationship between current and lagged acreage of more than one lag. Therefore, it is recommended that government should consider the long-run period's relationship of each product's acreage when it plans a policy for stabilizing the supply and demand of garlic and onion. For the price variables, garlic price only affects garlic acreage response while onion price affects not only onion acreage response but also garlic acreage response. This implies that the stabilizing policy for onion price could have bigger effects than that for garlic price stabilization.

수학 자기효능감과 수학성취도의 관계에서 학습전략의 매개효과 - 잠재성장모형의 분석 - (Mediating Effect of Learning Strategy in the Relation of Mathematics Self-efficacy and Mathematics Achievement: Latent Growth Model Analyses)

  • 염시창;박철영
    • 한국수학교육학회지시리즈A:수학교육
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    • 제50권1호
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    • pp.103-118
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    • 2011
  • The study examined whether the relation between mathematics self-efficacy and mathematics achievement was partially mediated by the learning strategies, using latent growth model analyses. It was also examined the auto-regressive, cross-lagged (ARCL) panel model for testing the stability and change in the relation of mathematics self-efficacy and learning strategy over time. The study analyzed the first-year to the third-year data of the Korean Educational Longitudinal Survey (KELS). The result of ARCL panel model analysis showed that earlier mathematics self-efficacy could predict later learning strategy use. There were linear trends in mathematics self-efficacy, learning strategy, and mathematics achievement. Specifically, mathematics achievement was increased over the three time points, whereas mathematics self-efficacy and learning strategies were significantly decreased. In the analyses of latent growth models, the mediating effects of learning strategies were overall supported. That is, both of initial status and change rate of rehearsal strategy partially mediated the relation of mathematics self-efficacy and mathematics achievement. However, in elaboration and meta-cognitive strategies, only the initial status of each variable showed the indirect relationship.

야간 냉각율을 이용한 우포늪의 기온변화 완화효과 평가 (Evaluation of Mitigation Effect of Upo-Swamp on the Air temperature Variation with Nighttime Cooling Rate)

  • 박명희;김해동
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.309-319
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we investigated the effects of Upo-swamp upon local thermal environment with nighttime cooling rate. To do this, we set up the AWS(Automatic Weather observation System) over the central part of Upo-swamp on the early October 2007. We conducted the study by comparing the AWS data with another weather data observed by several meteorological observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration located at the vicinity of Upo-swamp for one year. The air temperature of Upo-swamp was higher than that of the surrounding in cold-climate season. But it was opposite in warm-climate season. We confirmed that Upo-swamp roles to mitigate the daily and annual air temperature ranges. And the daily air temperature variation of Upo-swamp lagged behind the land one. This phenomenon represent that the heat reservoir capacity of Upo-swamp is much larger than that of the ground.

0세부터 3세까지 영유아의 부정적 정서성과 어머니의 온정성/반응성 간의 양방향적 관계 (Bidirectional Associations between the Negative Emotionality of 0-to 3-year-old Children and Maternal Warmth / Reactivity)

  • 김수정;정익중
    • 아동학회지
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the bidirectional relationship between the negative emotionality of 0-to 3-year-old and maternal parenting styles, focusing on warmth and reactivity. Four waves of panel data from the Korean Children Panel Study(KCPS) were analyzed in this study by means of autoregressive cross-lagged modeling. The results of this study were as follows. First, negative emotionality and maternal parenting styles were consistently stable for 0-to 3-year-old. Second, a bidirectional relationship between negative emotionality and maternal warmth parenting styles was confirmed according to the appearance of both parent and child effects. In other words, higher levels of negative emotionality was associated with lower maternal warmth parenting styles across time and in both directions. Additionally, the relationship between negative emotionality and maternal reactivity parenting styles were partially identified as being bidirectional in nature, whilst also being related to age. These findings suggested that parent education aimed at strengthening parenting skills, and programs designed to relieve negative emotionality of 0-to 3-year-olds are clearly needed.

안면도 국제 꽃박람회가 지역개발에 미치는 파급효과 (International Flower Exhibition in Anmyon Island and Its Impacts on Regional Development)

  • 권용대
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2000
  • Taean county region has been economically lagged behind compared with other areas in Chungnam Province mainly due to disadvantages of the location such as traffic accessibility, social infrastructure and industrial complex. However, recently Taean region has been emerged as newly prospective area because west coastal highway will be constructed to connect Seoul urban area to famous beach sites, recreational facilities along the seaside of Taean county, where International Flower Exhibition will also be held in Anmyon Island for the year of 2002. This Paper aims to explore how International Flower Exhibition is contributing to the development of local economy of Taean County area and to suggest the strategies for the development of this area through promoting spread effects of these international events. It is estimated that although there will be loss of 32,987 thousands won during the period of international flower festival based on the cash flow analysis, long run profits would be 108 trillion won, when calculating indirect benefits derived from the sight seeing, flower sales and other incomes from various activities. In order to maximize post benefits of international flower event, it is suggested that Taean county should pursue the strategies for specializing in cultural events such as family recreational events, beach festival and traditional cultural events, improving the social infrastructure and promoting the local industry such as flower, tourism and advanced technological enterprises.

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CSR Impact on the Firm Market Value: Evidence from Tour and Travel Companies Listed on Chinese Stock Markets

  • LEE, Jung Wan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권7호
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2020
  • The study examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activity on the firm market value, in particular, market capitalization of tour operators listed on Chinese stock markets. This study employs panel data analysis methods to examine endogeneity concerns in observational data. The balanced panel data includes a total of 1,296 observations with 27 cross-sections of tour operators listed on Chinese stock markets and with 48 time-specific periods from March 2006 to December 2017. The results indicate that CSR activity has a negative impact on the market value of the firm for the concurrent period, but from one-period time lag and afterwards CSR activity has a strong positive impact on the market value and sustains its positive impact on the market value even for a two-period time lag. The findings suggest that the economic effect of CSR activity on the firm market value tends to take some degree of lagged effects to be fully showcased in the market capitalization of tour operators and travel companies listed on Chinese stock markets. The findings suggest that, though CSR activity may carry some financial risk for an immediate short-term, tour operators must put a lot of time and effort into making CSR actions effective.

COVID-19, Remittance Inflows, and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

  • QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;KARIM, Salma;JAHAN, Ishrat
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.265-275
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    • 2021
  • This study's motivation is to investigate the association between the stock market, remittance, and the pandemic of COVID-19 for the period from March 3, 2020, to December 14, 2020. For evaluating the impact of COVID-19 and remittances on stock market behaviour during the pandemic, the study applies Autoregressive Distributed lagged (ARDL) for magnitudes estimation and directional association through the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Study findings from ARDL estimation revealed that COVID-19 measured by detecting new cases negatively influences the stock market both in the long-term and short-term. Remittance positively influences the stock market behaviour, particularly in the long-term. Furthermore, the directional causality test disclosed unidirectional causal effects between COVID-19 and the stock market behaviour, which establishes all proxy measures for the equation's stock market. The hypothesis results explain the causal relationship between remittance inflows and the stock market in Bangladesh. The study's application will help policymakers rethink the policies for channelizing remittances for productive investment areas. Furthermore, the study's findings will reinstate the widely perceived notions, which is the critical role of remittance in the economy even though the economy passes through a great pandemic.

The Role of Remittances in Financial Development: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Asymmetric Causality

  • MEHTA, Ahmed Muneeb;QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;SERFRAZ, Ayesha;ALI, Asad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.139-154
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    • 2021
  • This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

The Relationship Between Despotic Leadership and Employee Outcomes: An Empirical Study from Pakistan

  • KHAN, Hafiz Ghufran Ali;AHMED, Irshad;Ul AIN, Qurat;MUMTAZ, Roohi;IKRAM, Memoona
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권6호
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    • pp.331-341
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    • 2022
  • Through emotional exhaustion, this study empirically tests followers' behavioral responses to autocratic leaders. The current research focuses on effects caused by despotic leadership on followers' emotional exhaustion, which leads to employee outcomes such as interpersonal deviances and indirect aggression. The association between despotic leadership and results (employee interpersonal deviance and indirect violence) is investigated in this study. In this study, emotional exhaustion is used as a mediator. Furthermore, negative affectivity is used as a moderator between despotic leadership and emotional exhaustion. A time-lagged framework is employed with a sample of 255 respondents. Age, qualification, marital status, gender, grade, type of organization, department, and job experience are among the eight demographical questions in this study. After evaluating the data for normality, correlation analysis was performed, followed by moderation and mediation analysis. The current study explores the link between despotic leadership and emotional exhaustion among followers, arguing that a despotic leader will leave followers exhausted at work. Emotional exhaustion was also linked to interpersonal deviances, such as indirect aggression, in a significant and positive way. Employee outcomes, such as interpersonal deviances and indirect aggressiveness through emotional exhaustion, will be influenced by a despotic leader, according to the findings.