• Title/Summary/Keyword: kriging model

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The Study for Estimating Traffic Volumes on Urban Roads Using Spatial Statistic and Navigation Data (공간통계기법과 내비게이션 자료를 활용한 도시부 도로 교통량 추정연구)

  • HONG, Dahee;KIM, Jinho;JANG, Doogik;LEE, Taewoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.220-233
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    • 2017
  • Traffic volumes are fundamental data widely used in various traffic analysis, such as origin-and-destination establishment, total traveled kilometer distance calculation, congestion evaluation, and so on. The low number of links collecting the traffic-volume data in a large urban highway network has weakened the quality of the analyses in practice. This study proposes a method to estimate the traffic volume data on a highway link where no collection device is available by introducing a spatial statistic technique with (1) the traffic-volume data from TOPIS, and National Transport Information Center in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and (2) the navigation data from private navigation. Two different component models were prepared for the interrupted and the uninterrupted flows respectively, due to their different traffic-flow characteristics: the piecewise constant function and the regression kriging. The comparison of the traffic volumes estimated by the proposed method against the ones counted in the field showed that the level of error includes 6.26% in MAPE and 5,410 in RMSE, and thus the prediction error is 20.3% in MAPE.

Enhancement of Geomorphology Generation for the Front Land of Levee Using Aerial Photograph (항공영상을 연계한 하천 제외지의 지형분석 개선 기법)

  • Lee, Geun Sang;Lee, Hyun Seok;Hwang, Eui Ho;Koh, Deuk Koo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3D
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    • pp.407-415
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    • 2008
  • This study presents the methodology to link with aerial photos for advancing the accuracy of topographic survey data that is used to calculate water volume in urban stream. First, GIS spatial interpolation technique as Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) and Kriging was applied to construct the terrain morphology to the sand-bar and grass area using cross-sectional survey data, and also validation point data was used to estimate the accuracy of created topographic data. As the result of comparison, IDW ($d^{-2}_{ij}$, 2nd square number) in Sand-bar area and Kriging Spherical model in grass area showed more efficient results in the construction of topographic data of river boundary. But the differences among interpolation methods are very slight. Image classification method, Minimum Distance Method (MDM) was applied to extract sand-bar and grass area that are located to river boundary efficiently and the elevation value of extracted layers was allocated to the water level point value. Water volume with topographic data from aerial photos shows the advanced accuracy of 13% (in sand-bar) and 12% (in grass) compared to the water volume of original terrain data. Therefore, terrain analysis method in river linking with aerial photos is efficient to the monitoring about sand-bar and grass area that are located in the downstream of Dam in flooding season, and also it can be applied to calculate water volume efficiently.

The Study on Flood Runoff Simulation using Runoff Model with Gauge-adjusted Radar data (보정 레이더 자료와 유출 모형을 이용한 홍수유출모의에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Young-Hye;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2010
  • Changes in climate have largely increased concentrated heavy rainfall, which in turn is causing enormous damages to humans and properties. Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial-temporal features of rainfall. In this study, RADAR rainfall was used to calculate gridded areal rainfall which reflects the spatial-temporal variability. In addition, Kalman-filter method, a stochastical technique, was used to combine ground rainfall network with RADAR rainfall network to calculate areal rainfall. Thiessen polygon method, Inverse distance weighting method, and Kriging method were used for calculating areal rainfall, and the calculated data was compared with adjusted areal RADAR rainfall measured using the Kalman-filter method. The result showed that RADAR rainfall adjusted with Kalman-filter method well-reproduced the distribution of raw RADAR rainfall which has a similar spatial distribution as the actual rainfall distribution. The adjusted RADAR rainfall also showed a similar rainfall volume as the volume shown in rain gauge data. Anseong-Cheon basin was used as a study area and the RADAR rainfall adjusted with Kalman-filter method was applied in $Vflo^{TM}$ model, a physical-based distributed model, and ModClark model, a semi-distributed model. As a result, $Vflo^{TM}$ model simulated peak time and peak value similar to that of observed hydrograph. ModClark model showed good results for total runoff volume. However, for verifying the parameter, $Vflo^{TM}$ model showed better reproduction of observed hydrograph than ModClark model. These results confirmed that flood runoff simulation is applicable in domestic settings(in South Korea) if highly accurate areal rainfall is calculated by combining gauge rainfall and RADAR rainfall data and the simulation is performed in link to the distributed hydrological model.

Spatial Variability of Soil Properties using Nested Variograms at Multiple Scales

  • Chung, Sun-Ok;Sudduth, Kenneth A.;Drummond, Scott T.;Kitchen, Newell R.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.377-388
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Determining the spatial structure of data is important in understanding within-field variability for site-specific crop management. An understanding of the spatial structures present in the data may help illuminate interrelationships that are important in subsequent explanatory analyses, especially when site variables are correlated or are a combined response to multiple causative factors. Methods: In this study, correlation, principal component analysis, and single and nested variogram models were applied to soil electrical conductivity and chemical property data of two fields in central Missouri, USA. Results: Some variables that were highly correlated, or were strongly expressed in the same principal component, exhibited similar spatial ranges when fitted with a single variogram model. However, single variogram results were dependent on the active lag distance used, with short distances (30 m) required to fit short-range variability. Longer active lag distances only revealed long-range spatial components. Nested models generally yielded a better fit than single models for sensor-based conductivity data, where multiple scales of spatial structure were apparent. Gaussian-spherical nested models fit well to the data at both short (30 m) and long (300 m) active lag distances, generally capturing both short-range and long-range spatial components. As soil conductivity relates strongly to profile texture, we hypothesize that the short-range components may relate to the scale of erosion processes, while the long-range components are indicative of the scale of landscape morphology. Conclusion: In this study, we investigated the effect of changing active lag distance on the calculation of the range parameter. Future work investigating scale effects on other variogram parameters, including nugget and sill variances, may lead to better model selection and interpretation. Once this is achieved, separation of nested spatial components by factorial kriging may help to better define the correlations existing between spatial datasets.

Design Optimization of Fan-shaped Film Cooling Hole Array on Pressure Side Surface of High Pressure Turbine Nozzle (고압터빈 노즐 압력면에서의 확장 형상 막냉각 홀 배열 최적설계)

  • Lee, Sanga;Rhee, Dong-Ho;Kang, Young-Seok;Kim, Jinuk;Seo, Do-Young;Yee, Kwanjung
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 2014
  • In the present work, design optimization of film-cooling hole array on the pressure side of high pressure turbine nozzle was conducted. There are four rows of fan-shaped film cooling holes on the nozzle pressure side surface and each row has a straight array of holes in the spanwise direction for baseline model. For design optimization, hole distributions in streamwise and spanwise directions for three rows of holes except first row are parameterized as a 2nd-order shape function. Three-dimensional compressible RANS equations are used for flow and thermal analysis around the nozzle surface and optimization technique using Design of Experiment, Kriging surrogate model and Genetic Algorithm is used. The results shows that averaged adiabatic wall temperature at the whole nozzle surface decreases about 2.7% and averaged film cooling effectiveness at the pressure side of nozzle increased about 8.2%.

Sensitivity Approach of Sequential Sampling Using Adaptive Distance Criterion (적응거리 조건을 이용한 순차적 실험계획의 민감도법)

  • Jung, Jae-Jun;Lee, Tae-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.9 s.240
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    • pp.1217-1224
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    • 2005
  • To improve the accuracy of a metamodel, additional sample points can be selected by using a specified criterion, which is often called sequential sampling approach. Sequential sampling approach requires small computational cost compared to one-stage optimal sampling. It is also capable of monitoring the process of metamodeling by means of identifying an important design region for approximation and further refining the fidelity in the region. However, the existing critertia such as mean squared error, entropy and maximin distance essentially depend on the distance between previous selected sample points. Therefore, although sufficient sample points are selected, these sequential sampling strategies cannot guarantee the accuracy of metamodel in the nearby optimum points. This is because criteria of the existing sequential sampling approaches are inefficient to approximate extremum and inflection points of original model. In this research, new sequential sampling approach using the sensitivity of metamodel is proposed to reflect the response. Various functions that can represent a variety of features of engineering problems are used to validate the sensitivity approach. In addition to both root mean squared error and maximum error, the error of metamodel at optimum points is tested to access the superiority of the proposed approach. That is, optimum solutions to minimization of metamodel obtained from the proposed approach are compared with those of true functions. For comparison, both mean squared error approach and maximin distance approach are also examined.

A Bayesian Approach to Geophysical Inverse Problems (베이지안 방식에 의한 지구물리 역산 문제의 접근)

  • Oh Seokhoon;Chung Seung-Hwan;Kwon Byung-Doo;Lee Heuisoon;Jung Ho Jun;Lee Duk Kee
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.262-271
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    • 2002
  • This study presents a practical procedure for the Bayesian inversion of geophysical data. We have applied geostatistical techniques for the acquisition of prior model information, then the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was adopted to infer the characteristics of the marginal distributions of model parameters. For the Bayesian inversion of dipole-dipole array resistivity data, we have used the indicator kriging and simulation techniques to generate cumulative density functions from Schlumberger array resistivity data and well logging data, and obtained prior information by cokriging and simulations from covariogram models. The indicator approach makes it possible to incorporate non-parametric information into the probabilistic density function. We have also adopted the MCMC approach, based on Gibbs sampling, to examine the characteristics of a posteriori probability density function and the marginal distribution of each parameter.

Design and Performance Analysis of Propeller for Solar-powered HALE UAV EAV-3 (고고도 장기체공 태양광 무인기 EAV-3의 프로펠러 설계 및 성능해석)

  • Park, Donghun;Hwang, Seungjae;Kim, Sanggon;Kim, Cheolwan;Lee, Yunggyo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.9
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    • pp.759-768
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    • 2016
  • Design and performance analysis of propeller for solar-powered HALE UAV, EAV-3 are conducted. Experiment points of design variables are obtained by using Design of Experiment(DOE) and Kriging meta-model is generated for objective and constraints function. The geometry of propeller is designed by evaluating the response surface with requirement and restrictions. The validity of the design is verified by meta-model based optimization. Computational analyses are carried out by using commercial CFD code and the results are compared with those from a design code and wind tunnel test. The results showed good agreement with predictions of the design code at the design altitude. Also, it is confirmed that the blockage effect due to the measurement device and support strut is included in the test data and the results including this effect compare well with the test data.

Evaluation on Sensitivity and Approximate Modeling of Fire-Resistance Performance for A60 Class Deck Penetration Piece Using Heat-Transfer Analysis and Fire Test

  • Park, Woo Chang;Song, Chang Yong
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2021
  • The A60 class deck penetration piece is a fire-resistance apparatus installed on the deck compartment to protect lives and to prevent flame diffusion in the case of a fire accident in a ship or offshore plant. In this study, the sensitivity of the fire-resistance performance and approximation characteristics for the A60 class penetration piece was evaluated by conducting a transient heat-transfer analysis and fire test. The transient heat-transfer analysis was conducted to evaluate the fire-resistance design of the A60 class deck penetration piece, and the analysis results were verified via the fire test. The penetration-piece length, diameter, material type, and insulation density were used as the design factors (DFs), and the output responses were the weight, temperature, cost, and productivity. The quantitative effects of each DF on the output responses were evaluated using the design-of-experiments method. Additionally, an optimum design case was identified to minimize the weight of the A60 class deck penetration piece while satisfying the allowable limits of the output responses. According to the design-of-experiments results, various approximate models, e.g., a Kriging model, the response surface method, and a radial basis function-based neural network (RBFN), were generated. The design-of-experiments results were verified by the approximation results. It was concluded that among the approximate models, the RBFN was able to explore the design space of the A60 class deck penetration piece with the highest accuracy.

A Comparative Study on Approximate Models and Sensitivity Analysis of Active Type DSF for Offshore Plant Float-over Installation Using Orthogonal Array Experiment (직교배열실험을 이용한 해양플랜트 플로트오버 설치 작업용 능동형 DSF의 민감도해석과 근사모델 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hun-Gwan;Song, Chang Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.187-196
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    • 2021
  • The paper deals with comparative study for characteristics of approximation of design space according to various approximate models and sensitivity analysis using orthogonal array experiments in structure design of active type DSF which was developed for float-over installation of offshore plant. This study aims to propose the orthogonal array experiments based design methodology which is able to efficiently explore an optimum design case and to generate the accurate approximate model. Thickness sizes of main structure member were applied to the design factors, and output responses were considered structure weight and strength performances. Quantitative effects on the output responses for each design factor were evaluated using the orthogonal array experiment. Best design case was also identified to improve the structure design with weight minimization. From the orthogonal array experiment results, various approximate models such as response surface model, Kriging model, Chebyshev orthogonal polynomial model, and radial basis function based neural network model were generated. The experiment results from orthogonal array method were validated by the approximate modeling results. It was found that the radial basis function based neural network model among the approximate models was able to approximate the design space of the active type DSF with the highest accuracy.