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The Characteristics of Rural Population, Korea, 1960~1995: Population Composition and Internal Migration (농촌인구의 특성과 그 변화, 1960~1995: 인구구성 및 인구이동)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.77-105
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    • 1996
  • The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

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A study on the second edition of Koryo Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock (고려재조대장목록고)

  • Jeong Pil-mo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.17
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    • pp.11-47
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    • 1989
  • This study intends to examine the background and the procedure of the carving of the tablets of the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock­Lock(재조대장목록). the time and the route of the moving of the tablets. into Haein-sa, and the contents and the system of it. This study is mainly based on the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock. But the other closely related materials such as restored first. edition of the Dae- Jang-Mock-Lock, Koryo Sin-Jo-Dae-Jang-Byeol-Lock (고려신조대장교정별록). Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock (개원석교록). Sok-Kae­Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock (속개원석교록). Jeong-Won-Sin-Jeong-Seok-Kyo­Lock(정원신정석교록), Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock(속정원석교록), Dea-Jung-Sang-Bu-Beob-Bo-Lock(대중상부법보록), and Kyeong-Woo-Sin-Su-Beob-Bo-Lock(경우신수법보록), are also analysed and closely examined. The results of this study can be summarized as follows: 1. The second edition of Tripitaka Koreana(고려대장경) was carved for the purpose of defending the country from Mongolia with the power of Buddhism, after the tablets of the first edition in Buin-sa(부이사) was destroyed by fire. 2. In 1236. Dae-Jang-Do-Gam(대장도감) was established, and the preparation for the recarving of the tablets such as comparison between the content, of the first edition of Tripitalk Koreana, Gal-Bo-Chik-Pan-Dae­Jang-Kyeong and Kitan Dae- Jang-Kyeong, transcription of the original copy and the preparation of the wood, etc. was started. 3. In 1237 after the announcement of Dae-Jang-Gyeong-Gak-Pan-Gun­Sin-Gi-Go-Mun(대장경핵판군신석고문), the carving was started on a full scale. And seven years later (1243), Bun-Sa-Dae-Jang-Do-Gam(분사대장도감) was established in the area of the South to expand and hasten the work. And a large number of the tablets were carved in there. 4. It took 16 years to carve the main text and the supplements of the second edition of Tripitaka Koreana, the main text being carved from 1237 to 1248 and the supplement from 1244 to 1251. 5. It can be supposed that the tablets of the second edition of Tripitaka Koreana, stored in Seon-Won-Sa(선원사), Kang-Wha(강화), for about 140 years, was moved to Ji-Cheon-Sa(지천사), Yong-San(용산), and to Hae-In-Sa(해인사) again, through the west and the south sea and Jang-Gyeong-Po(장경포), Go-Ryeong(고령), in the autumn of the same year. 6. The second edition of Tripitaka Koreana was carved mainly based on the first edition, comparing with Gae-Bo-Chik-Pan-Dae-Jang-Kyeong(개보판대장경) and Kitan Dae-Jang-Kyeong(계단대장경). And the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock also compiled mainly based on the first edition with the reference to Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock and Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock. 7. Comparing with the first edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock, in the second edition 7 items of 9 volumes of Kitan text such as Weol-Deung­Sam-Mae-Gyeong-Ron(월증삼매경론) are added and 3 items of 60 volumes such as Dae-Jong-Ji-Hyeon-Mun-Ron(대종지현문논) are substituted into others from Cheon chest(천함) to Kaeng chest(경함), and 92 items of 601 volumes such as Beob-Won-Ju-Rim-Jeon(법원주임전) are added after Kaeng chest. And 4 items of 50 volumes such as Yuk-Ja-Sin-Ju-Wang-Kyeong(육자신주왕경) are ommitted in the second edition. 8. Comparing with Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock, Cheon chest to Young chest (영함) of the second edition is compiled according to Ib-Jang-Lock(입장록) of Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock. But 15 items of 43 vol­umes such as Bul-Seol-Ban-Ju-Sam-Mae-Kyeong(불설반주삼매경) are ;added and 7 items of 35 volumes such as Dae-Bang-Deung-Dae-Jib-Il­Jang-Kyeong(대방등대집일장경) are ommitted. 9. Comparing with Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock, 3 items of the 47 volumes (or 49 volumes) are ommitted and 4 items of 96 volumes are ;added in Caek chest(책함) to Mil chest(밀함) of the second edition. But the items are arranged in the same order. 10. Comparing with Dae- Jung-Sang-Bo-Beob-Bo-Lock, the arrangement of the second edition is entirely different from it. But 170 items of 329 volumes are also included in Doo chest(두함) to Kyeong chest(경함) of the second edition, and 53 items of 125 volumes in Jun chest(존함) to Jeong chest(정함). And 10 items of 108 volumes in the last part of Dae-Jung-Sang-Bo-Beob-Bo-Lock are ommitted and 3 items of 131 volumes such as Beob-Won-Ju-Rim-Jeon(법원주임전) are added in the second edition. 11. Comparing with Kyeong-Woo-Sin-Su-Beob-Bo-Lock, all of the items (21 items of 161 volumes) are included in the second edition without ;any classificatory system. And 22 items of 172 volumes in the Seong­Hyeon-Jib-Jeon(성현집전) part such as Myo-Gak-Bi-Cheon(묘각비전) are ommitted. 12. The last part of the second edition, Joo chest(주함) to Dong chest (동함), includes 14 items of 237 volumes. But these items cannot be found in any other former Buddhist catalog. So it might be supposed as the Kitan texts. 13. Besides including almost all items in Kae-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock and all items in Sok-Jeong-Won-Seok-Kyo-Lock, Dae-Jung-Sang-Bo­Beob-Bo-Lock, and Kyeong-Woo-Sin-Su-Beob-Bo-Lock, the second edition of Dae-Jang-Mock-Lock includes more items, at least 20 items of about 300 volumes of Kitan Tripitaka and 15 items of 43 volumes of traditional Korean Tripitake that cannot be found any others. Therefore, Tripitaka Koreana can be said as a comprehensive Tripitaka covering all items of Tripitakas translated in Chinese character.

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A Study on the Meaning and Future of the Moon Treaty (달조약의 의미와 전망에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Taek
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.215-236
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    • 2006
  • This article focused on the meaning of the 1979 Moon Treaty and its future. Although the Moon Treaty is one of the major 5 space related treaties, it was accepted by only 11 member states which are non-space powers, thus having the least enfluences on the field of space law. And this article analysed the relationship between the 1979 Moon Treay and 1967 Space Treaty which was the first principle treaty, and searched the meaning of the "Common Heritage of Mankind(hereinafter CHM)" stipulated in the Moon treaty in terms of international law. This article also dealt with the present and future problems arising from the Moon Treaty. As far as the 1967 Space Treaty is concerned the main standpoint is that outer space including the moon and the other celestial bodies is res extra commercium, areas not subject to national appropriation like high seas. It proclaims the principle non-appropriation concerning the celestial bodies in outer space. But the concept of CHM stipulated in the Moon Treaty created an entirely new category of territory in international law. This concept basically conveys the idea that the management, exploitation and distribution of natural resources of the area in question are matters to be decided by the international community and are not to be left to the initiative and discretion of individual states or their nationals. Similar provision is found in the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention that operates the International Sea-bed Authority created by the concept of CHM. According to the Moon Treaty international regime will be established as the exploitation of the natural resources of the celestial bodies other than the Earth is about to become feasible. Before the establishment of an international regime we could imagine moratorium upon the expoitation of the natural resources on the celestial bodies. But the drafting history of the Moon Treaty indicates that no moratorium on the exploitation of natural resources was intended prior to the setting up of the international regime. So each State Party could exploit the natural resources bearing in mind that those resouces are CHM. In this respect it would be better for Korea, now not a party to the Moon Treaty, to be a member state in the near future. According to the Moon Treaty the efforts of those countries which have contributed either directly or indirectly the exploitation of the moon shall be given special consideration. The Moon Treaty, which although is criticised by some space law experts represents a solid basis upon which further space exploration can continue, shows the expression of the common collective wisdom of all member States of the United Nations and responds the needs and possibilities of those that have already their technologies into outer space.

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System Development for Measuring Group Engagement in the Art Center (공연장에서 다중 몰입도 측정을 위한 시스템 개발)

  • Ryu, Joon Mo;Choi, Il Young;Choi, Lee Kwon;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2014
  • The Korean Culture Contents spread out to Worldwide, because the Korean wave is sweeping in the world. The contents stand in the middle of the Korean wave that we are used it. Each country is ongoing to keep their Culture industry improve the national brand and High added value. Performing contents is important factor of arousal in the enterprise industry. To improve high arousal confidence of product and positive attitude by populace is one of important factor by advertiser. Culture contents is the same situation. If culture contents have trusted by everyone, they will give information their around to spread word-of-mouth. So, many researcher study to measure for person's arousal analysis by statistical survey, physiological response, body movement and facial expression. First, Statistical survey has a problem that it is not possible to measure each person's arousal real time and we cannot get good survey result after they watched contents. Second, physiological response should be checked with surround because experimenter sets sensors up their chair or space by each of them. Additionally it is difficult to handle provided amount of information with real time from their sensor. Third, body movement is easy to get their movement from camera but it difficult to set up experimental condition, to measure their body language and to get the meaning. Lastly, many researcher study facial expression. They measures facial expression, eye tracking and face posed. Most of previous studies about arousal and interest are mostly limited to reaction of just one person and they have problems with application multi audiences. They have a particular method, for example they need room light surround, but set limits only one person and special environment condition in the laboratory. Also, we need to measure arousal in the contents, but is difficult to define also it is not easy to collect reaction by audiences immediately. Many audience in the theater watch performance. We suggest the system to measure multi-audience's reaction with real-time during performance. We use difference image analysis method for multi-audience but it weaks a dark field. To overcome dark environment during recoding IR camera can get the photo from dark area. In addition we present Multi-Audience Engagement Index (MAEI) to calculate algorithm which sources from sound, audience' movement and eye tracking value. Algorithm calculates audience arousal from the mobile survey, sound value, audience' reaction and audience eye's tracking. It improves accuracy of Multi-Audience Engagement Index, we compare Multi-Audience Engagement Index with mobile survey. And then it send the result to reporting system and proposal an interested persons. Mobile surveys are easy, fast, and visitors' discomfort can be minimized. Also additional information can be provided mobile advantage. Mobile application to communicate with the database, real-time information on visitors' attitudes focused on the content stored. Database can provide different survey every time based on provided information. The example shown in the survey are as follows: Impressive scene, Satisfied, Touched, Interested, Didn't pay attention and so on. The suggested system is combine as 3 parts. The system consist of three parts, External Device, Server and Internal Device. External Device can record multi-Audience in the dark field with IR camera and sound signal. Also we use survey with mobile application and send the data to ERD Server DB. The Server part's contain contents' data, such as each scene's weights value, group audience weights index, camera control program, algorithm and calculate Multi-Audience Engagement Index. Internal Device presents Multi-Audience Engagement Index with Web UI, print and display field monitor. Our system is test-operated by the Mogencelab in the DMC display exhibition hall which is located in the Sangam Dong, Mapo Gu, Seoul. We have still gotten from visitor daily. If we find this system audience arousal factor with this will be very useful to create contents.

The Classification System and Information Service for Establishing a National Collaborative R&D Strategy in Infectious Diseases: Focusing on the Classification Model for Overseas Coronavirus R&D Projects (국가 감염병 공동R&D전략 수립을 위한 분류체계 및 정보서비스에 대한 연구: 해외 코로나바이러스 R&D과제의 분류모델을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Doyeon;Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-pyo;Kim, Keun-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.127-147
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    • 2020
  • The world is suffering from numerous human and economic losses due to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). The Korean government established a strategy to overcome the national infectious disease crisis through research and development. It is difficult to find distinctive features and changes in a specific R&D field when using the existing technical classification or science and technology standard classification. Recently, a few studies have been conducted to establish a classification system to provide information about the investment research areas of infectious diseases in Korea through a comparative analysis of Korea government-funded research projects. However, these studies did not provide the necessary information for establishing cooperative research strategies among countries in the infectious diseases, which is required as an execution plan to achieve the goals of national health security and fostering new growth industries. Therefore, it is inevitable to study information services based on the classification system and classification model for establishing a national collaborative R&D strategy. Seven classification - Diagnosis_biomarker, Drug_discovery, Epidemiology, Evaluation_validation, Mechanism_signaling pathway, Prediction, and Vaccine_therapeutic antibody - systems were derived through reviewing infectious diseases-related national-funded research projects of South Korea. A classification system model was trained by combining Scopus data with a bidirectional RNN model. The classification performance of the final model secured robustness with an accuracy of over 90%. In order to conduct the empirical study, an infectious disease classification system was applied to the coronavirus-related research and development projects of major countries such as the STAR Metrics (National Institutes of Health) and NSF (National Science Foundation) of the United States(US), the CORDIS (Community Research & Development Information Service)of the European Union(EU), and the KAKEN (Database of Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research) of Japan. It can be seen that the research and development trends of infectious diseases (coronavirus) in major countries are mostly concentrated in the prediction that deals with predicting success for clinical trials at the new drug development stage or predicting toxicity that causes side effects. The intriguing result is that for all of these nations, the portion of national investment in the vaccine_therapeutic antibody, which is recognized as an area of research and development aimed at the development of vaccines and treatments, was also very small (5.1%). It indirectly explained the reason of the poor development of vaccines and treatments. Based on the result of examining the investment status of coronavirus-related research projects through comparative analysis by country, it was found that the US and Japan are relatively evenly investing in all infectious diseases-related research areas, while Europe has relatively large investments in specific research areas such as diagnosis_biomarker. Moreover, the information on major coronavirus-related research organizations in major countries was provided by the classification system, thereby allowing establishing an international collaborative R&D projects.

Analysis of Success Cases of InsurTech and Digital Insurance Platform Based on Artificial Intelligence Technologies: Focused on Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. in China (인공지능 기술 기반 인슈어테크와 디지털보험플랫폼 성공사례 분석: 중국 평안보험그룹을 중심으로)

  • Lee, JaeWon;Oh, SangJin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.71-90
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the global insurance industry is rapidly developing digital transformation through the use of artificial intelligence technologies such as machine learning, natural language processing, and deep learning. As a result, more and more foreign insurers have achieved the success of artificial intelligence technology-based InsurTech and platform business, and Ping An Insurance Group Ltd., China's largest private company, is leading China's global fourth industrial revolution with remarkable achievements in InsurTech and Digital Platform as a result of its constant innovation, using 'finance and technology' and 'finance and ecosystem' as keywords for companies. In response, this study analyzed the InsurTech and platform business activities of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. through the ser-M analysis model to provide strategic implications for revitalizing AI technology-based businesses of domestic insurers. The ser-M analysis model has been studied so that the vision and leadership of the CEO, the historical environment of the enterprise, the utilization of various resources, and the unique mechanism relationships can be interpreted in an integrated manner as a frame that can be interpreted in terms of the subject, environment, resource and mechanism. As a result of the case analysis, Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. has achieved cost reduction and customer service development by digitally innovating its entire business area such as sales, underwriting, claims, and loan service by utilizing core artificial intelligence technologies such as facial, voice, and facial expression recognition. In addition, "online data in China" and "the vast offline data and insights accumulated by the company" were combined with new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data analysis to build a digital platform that integrates financial services and digital service businesses. Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. challenged constant innovation, and as of 2019, sales reached $155 billion, ranking seventh among all companies in the Global 2000 rankings selected by Forbes Magazine. Analyzing the background of the success of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. from the perspective of ser-M, founder Mammingz quickly captured the development of digital technology, market competition and changes in population structure in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, and established a new vision and displayed an agile leadership of digital technology-focused. Based on the strong leadership led by the founder in response to environmental changes, the company has successfully led InsurTech and Platform Business through innovation of internal resources such as investment in artificial intelligence technology, securing excellent professionals, and strengthening big data capabilities, combining external absorption capabilities, and strategic alliances among various industries. Through this success story analysis of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd., the following implications can be given to domestic insurance companies that are preparing for digital transformation. First, CEOs of domestic companies also need to recognize the paradigm shift in industry due to the change in digital technology and quickly arm themselves with digital technology-oriented leadership to spearhead the digital transformation of enterprises. Second, the Korean government should urgently overhaul related laws and systems to further promote the use of data between different industries and provide drastic support such as deregulation, tax benefits and platform provision to help the domestic insurance industry secure global competitiveness. Third, Korean companies also need to make bolder investments in the development of artificial intelligence technology so that systematic securing of internal and external data, training of technical personnel, and patent applications can be expanded, and digital platforms should be quickly established so that diverse customer experiences can be integrated through learned artificial intelligence technology. Finally, since there may be limitations to generalization through a single case of an overseas insurance company, I hope that in the future, more extensive research will be conducted on various management strategies related to artificial intelligence technology by analyzing cases of multiple industries or multiple companies or conducting empirical research.

The Effects of Pergola Wisteria floribunda's LAI on Thermal Environment (그늘시렁 Wisteria floribunda의 엽면적지수가 온열환경에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Nam-Hyong;Lee, Chun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2017
  • This study was to investigate the user's thermal environments under the pergola($L\;7,200{\times}W\;4,200{\times}H\;2,700mn$) covered with Wisteria floribunda(Willd.) DC. according to the variation of leaf area index(LAI). We carried out detailed measurements with two human-biometeorological stations on a popular square Jinju, Korea($N35^{\circ}10^{\prime}59.8^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, $E\;128^{\circ}05^{\prime}32.0^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, elevation: 38m). One of the stations stood under a pergola, while the other in the sun. The measurement spots were instrumented with microclimate monitoring stations to continuously measure air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed, shortwave and longwave radiation from the six cardinal directions at the height of 0.6m so as to calculate the Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI) from $9^{th}$ April to $27^{th}$ September 2017. The LAI was measured using the LAI-2200C Plant Canopy Analyzer. The analysis results of 18 day's 1 minute term human-biometeorological data absorbed by a man in sitting position from 10am to 4pm showed the following. During the whole observation period, daily average air temperatures under the pergola were respectively $0.7{\sim}2.3^{\circ}C$ lower compared with those in the sun, daily average wind speed and relative humidity under the pergola were respectively 0.17~0.38m/s and 0.4~3.1% higher compared with those in the sun. There was significant relationship in LAI, Julian day number and were expressed in the equation $y=-0.0004x^2+0.1719x-11.765(R^2=0.9897)$. The average $T_{mrt}$ under the pergola were $11.9{\sim}25.4^{\circ}C$ lower and maximum ${\Delta}T_{mrt}$ under the pergola were $24.1{\sim}30.2^{\circ}C$ when compared with those in the sun. There was significant relationship in LAI, reduction ratio(%) of daily average $T_{mrt}$ compared with those in the sun and was expressed in the equation $y=0.0678{\ln}(x)+0.3036(R^2=0.9454)$. The average UTCI under the pergola were $4.1{\sim}8.3^{\circ}C$ lower and maximum ${\Delta}UTCI$ under the pergola were $7.8{\sim}10.2^{\circ}C$ when compared with those in the sun. There was significant relationship in LAI, reduction ratio(%) of daily average UTCI compared with those in the sun and were expressed in the equation $y=0.0322{\ln}(x)+0.1538(R^2=0.8946)$. The shading by the pergola covered with vines was very effective for reducing daytime UTCI absorbed by a man in sitting position at summer largely through a reduction in mean radiant temperature from sun protection, lowering thermal stress from very strong(UTCI >$38^{\circ}C$) and strong(UTCI >$32^{\circ}C$) down to strong(UTCI >$32^{\circ}C$) and moderate(UTCI >$26^{\circ}C$). Therefore the pergola covered with vines used for shading outdoor spaces is essential to mitigate heat stress and can create better human thermal comfort especially in cities during summer. But the thermal environments under the pergola covered with vines during the heat wave supposed to user "very strong heat stress(UTCI>$38^{\circ}C$)". Therefore users must restrain themselves from outdoor activities during the heat waves.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Study of East Asia Climate Change for the Last Glacial Maximum Using Numerical Model (수치모델을 이용한 Last Glacial Maximum의 동아시아 기후변화 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Joong;Park, Yoo-Min;Lee, Bang-Yong;Choi, Tae-Jin;Yoon, Young-Jun;Suk, Bong-Chool
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.20 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2006
  • The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in northeast Asia is simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model of NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. Modern climate is simulated by a prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice provided from NCAR, and contemporary atmospheric CO2, topography, and orbital parameters, while LGM simulation was forced with the reconstructed CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, sea ice distribution, ice sheet topography, reduced $CO_2$, and orbital parameters. Under LGM conditions, surface temperature is markedly reduced in winter by more than $18^{\circ}C$ in the Korean west sea and continental margin of the Korean east sea, where the ocean exposed to land in the LGM, whereas in these areas surface temperature is warmer than present in summer by up to $2^{\circ}C$. This is due to the difference in heat capacity between ocean and land. Overall, in the LGM surface is cooled by $4{\sim}6^{\circ}C$ in northeast Asia land and by $7.1^{\circ}C$ in the entire area. An analysis of surface heat fluxes show that the surface cooling is due to the increase in outgoing longwave radiation associated with the reduced $CO_2$ concentration. The reduction in surface temperature leads to a weakening of the hydrological cycle. In winter, precipitation decreases largely in the southeastern part of Asia by about $1{\sim}4\;mm/day$, while in summer a larger reduction is found over China. Overall, annual-mean precipitation decreases by about 50% in the LGM. In northeast Asia, evaporation is also overall reduced in the LGM, but the reduction of precipitation is larger, eventually leading to a drier climate. The drier LGM climate simulated in this study is consistent with proxy evidence compiled in other areas. Overall, the high-resolution model captures the climate features reasonably well under global domain.

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A Mobile Landmarks Guide : Outdoor Augmented Reality based on LOD and Contextual Device (모바일 랜드마크 가이드 : LOD와 문맥적 장치 기반의 실외 증강현실)

  • Zhao, Bi-Cheng;Rosli, Ahmad Nurzid;Jang, Chol-Hee;Lee, Kee-Sung;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, mobile phone has experienced an extremely fast evolution. It is equipped with high-quality color displays, high resolution cameras, and real-time accelerated 3D graphics. In addition, some other features are includes GPS sensor and Digital Compass, etc. This evolution advent significantly helps the application developers to use the power of smart-phones, to create a rich environment that offers a wide range of services and exciting possibilities. To date mobile AR in outdoor research there are many popular location-based AR services, such Layar and Wikitude. These systems have big limitation the AR contents hardly overlaid on the real target. Another research is context-based AR services using image recognition and tracking. The AR contents are precisely overlaid on the real target. But the real-time performance is restricted by the retrieval time and hardly implement in large scale area. In our work, we exploit to combine advantages of location-based AR with context-based AR. The system can easily find out surrounding landmarks first and then do the recognition and tracking with them. The proposed system mainly consists of two major parts-landmark browsing module and annotation module. In landmark browsing module, user can view an augmented virtual information (information media), such as text, picture and video on their smart-phone viewfinder, when they pointing out their smart-phone to a certain building or landmark. For this, landmark recognition technique is applied in this work. SURF point-based features are used in the matching process due to their robustness. To ensure the image retrieval and matching processes is fast enough for real time tracking, we exploit the contextual device (GPS and digital compass) information. This is necessary to select the nearest and pointed orientation landmarks from the database. The queried image is only matched with this selected data. Therefore, the speed for matching will be significantly increased. Secondly is the annotation module. Instead of viewing only the augmented information media, user can create virtual annotation based on linked data. Having to know a full knowledge about the landmark, are not necessary required. They can simply look for the appropriate topic by searching it with a keyword in linked data. With this, it helps the system to find out target URI in order to generate correct AR contents. On the other hand, in order to recognize target landmarks, images of selected building or landmark are captured from different angle and distance. This procedure looks like a similar processing of building a connection between the real building and the virtual information existed in the Linked Open Data. In our experiments, search range in the database is reduced by clustering images into groups according to their coordinates. A Grid-base clustering method and user location information are used to restrict the retrieval range. Comparing the existed research using cluster and GPS information the retrieval time is around 70~80ms. Experiment results show our approach the retrieval time reduces to around 18~20ms in average. Therefore the totally processing time is reduced from 490~540ms to 438~480ms. The performance improvement will be more obvious when the database growing. It demonstrates the proposed system is efficient and robust in many cases.