• 제목/요약/키워드: joint probability

Search Result 296, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Probabilistic Evaluation of Fatigue Life in High Frequency Electric Resistance Welded Joint of the Pipe (고주파 전기저항용접부 강관에서의 피로수명의 확률론적 평가)

  • Seo, Young-Bum;Kim, Choong-Myeong;Kim, Chul-Su;Kim, Jung-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
    • /
    • 2004.04a
    • /
    • pp.400-405
    • /
    • 2004
  • In this study, the optimal welding condition of the input power was selected experimentally through the ERW simulator, which is equal to welding status of ERW part in pipe. This condition is the input power 250kW in the heat treatment of the $900^{\circ}C$ normalizing derived from the nondestructive technique and impact energy. In order to evaluate the variation of the fatigue life in the pipe, fatigue surface crack growth test of base and optimal welded metal were performed statistically. As stress intensity factor range (${\Delta}K_s$) increases, the fatigue crack propagation rate (da/aN) of the base metal is faster than that of the welded joint. The variation of the fatigue life in the ERW pipe was estimated statistically using Monte-Carlo simulation with the standard deviation of material constants (C and m) of the paris law in the specimen.

  • PDF

Effect of Tai Chi Exercise on Fatigue, Anxiety, and Sleep Patterns in Nursing Students (타이치 운동이 간호대학생의 피로, 불안 및 수면양상에 미치는 효과)

  • Park, Young Ju;Kim, Ja Ok
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.61-69
    • /
    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the Tai Chi exercise program (Sun style 31 forms) on fatigue, anxiety, and sleep patterns in nursing students. Methods: A quasi-experimental study with a non-equivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used. Nursing students who participated in this study were assigned to an experimental group (n=24), and a control group (n=26). The experimental group participated in Tai Chi exercise program for 60 minutes per session, and 3 times a week for 7 weeks. The Tai Chi exercise program consisted of 10 minutes for warm-up, 45 minutes for main session, and 5 minutes for cooling down exercises. The data were collected prior and after the intervention using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, $x^2$-test, Fisher's exact probability, t -test, and the general linear model. Results: After the application of the program, the experimental group showed a significant difference in fatigue (F=20.62, p<.001), anxiety (F=16.96, p<.001), and sleep pattern (F=15.70, p<.001) scores. Conclusion: These findings show that the Tai Chi exercise program can be an effective nursing intervention to improve sleep pattern and to reduce fatigue and anxiety in nursing students.

Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Pakistan Using a Bivariate Copula Model

  • Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Kim, Ji Eun;Park, Ji Yeon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2019.05a
    • /
    • pp.151-151
    • /
    • 2019
  • Because drought is a complex and stochastic phenomenon in nature, statistical approaches for drought assessment receive great attention for water resource planning and management. Generally drought characteristics such as severity, duration and intensity are modelled separately. This study aims to develop a relationship between drought characteristics using a bivariate copula model. To achieve the objective, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data at 6 rain gauge stations for the period of 1961-1999 in Jehlum River Basin, Pakistan, and investigated the drought characteristics. Since there is a significant correlation between drought severity and duration, they are usually modeled using different marginal distributions and joint distribution function. Using exponential distribution for drought severity and log-logistic distribution for drought duration, the Galambos copula was recognized as best copula to model joint distribution of drought severity and duration based on the KS-statistic. Various return periods of drought were calculated to identify time interval of repeated drought events. The result of this study can provide useful information for effective water resource management and shows superiority against univariate drought analysis.

  • PDF

Optimal user selection and power allocation for revenue maximization in non-orthogonal multiple access systems

  • Pazhayakandathil, Sindhu;Sukumaran, Deepak Kayiparambil;Koodamannu, Abdul Hameed
    • ETRI Journal
    • /
    • v.41 no.5
    • /
    • pp.626-636
    • /
    • 2019
  • A novel algorithm for joint user selection and optimal power allocation for Stackelberg game-based revenue maximization in a downlink non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) network is proposed in this study. The condition for the existence of optimal solution is derived by assuming perfect channel state information (CSI) at the transmitter. The Lagrange multiplier method is used to convert the revenue maximization problem into a set of quadratic equations that are reduced to a regular chain of expressions. The optimal solution is obtained via a univariate iterative procedure. A simple algorithm for joint optimal user selection and power calculation is presented and exhibits extremely low complexity. Furthermore, an outage analysis is presented to evaluate the performance degradation when perfect CSI is not available. The simulation results indicate that at 5-dB signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), revenue of the base station improves by at least 15.2% for the proposed algorithm when compared to suboptimal schemes. Other performance metrics of NOMA, such as individual user-rates, fairness index, and outage probability, approach near-optimal values at moderate to high SNRs.

Evaluation of full-order method for extreme wind effect estimation considering directionality

  • Luo, Ying;Huang, Guoqing;Han, Yan;Cai, C.S.
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.32 no.3
    • /
    • pp.193-204
    • /
    • 2021
  • The estimation of the extreme wind load (effect) under a mean recurrence interval (MRI) is an important task in the wind-resistant design for the structure. It can be predicted by either first-order method or full-order method, depending on the accuracy and complexity requirement. Although the first-order method with the consideration of wind directionality has been proposed, less work has been done on the full-order method, especially with the wind directionality. In this study, the full-order method considering the wind directionality is proposed based on multivariate joint probability distribution. Meanwhile, considering two wind directions, the difference of the corresponding results based on the first-order method and full-order method is analyzed. Finally, based on the measured wind speed data, the discrepancy between these two methods is investigated. Results show that the difference between two approaches is not obvious under larger MRIs while the underestimation caused by the first-order method can be larger than 15% under smaller MRIs. Overall, the first-order method is sufficient to estimate the extreme wind load (effect).

Comparative Effects and Ranks of Repositioning for Pressure Ulcer Prevention in Adults: A Network Meta-analysis (욕창예방을 위한 체위변경 중재 효과의 비교순위: 네트워크 메타분석)

  • Ko, Ji Woon
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.18-27
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose: A network meta-analysis was conducted to assess the comparative effects and ranks of repositioning for pressure ulcer prevention in adults. Methods: A network meta-analysis was performed in a frequency method, using the "netmeta" package of R software version 4.1. The effects of repositioning intervention were confirmed by the odds ratio. The comparative ranking of the repositioning effects was confirmed using the cumulative probability (P-score). Results: Seven intervention studies were included in this study. Based on the P-score, the use of the repositioning system was ranked as the most effective among all interventions (P-score 78.7%). Next was 3~4-hour repositioning combined with memory foam mattress use (P-score 77.2%), use of wearable sensor (P-Score 61.4%), 2-hour repositioning combined with memory foam mattress use (P-score 59.1%), 2-hour repositioning combined with powered air pressure redistribution mattress use (P-score 18.0%), and 4-hour repositioning combined with powered air pressure redistribution mattress use (P-score 18.0%). Conclusion: This study provides information on the relative comparative value of various repositioning interventions to prevent pressure ulcers using network meta-analysis. This is expected to be useful for nurses' decision-making when applying repositioning interventions in clinical practice

Research on improvement of target tracking performance of LM-IPDAF through improvement of clutter density estimation method (클러터밀도 추정 방법 개선을 통한 LM-IPDAF의 표적 추적 성능 향상 연구)

  • Yoo, In-Je;Park, Sung-Jae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.99-110
    • /
    • 2017
  • Improving tracking performance by estimating the status of multiple targets using radar is important. In a clutter environment, a joint event occurs between the track and measurement in multiple target tracking using a tracking filter. As the number increases, the joint event increases exponentially. The problem to be considered when multiple target tracking filter design in such environments is that first, the tracking filter minimizes the rate of false track alarmsby eliminating the false track and quickly confirming the target track. The purpose is to increase the FTD performance. The second consideration is to improve the track maintenance performance by allocating each measurement to a track efficiently when an event occurs. Through two considerations, a single target tracking data association technique is extended to a multiple target tracking filter, and representative algorithms are JIPDAF and LM-IPDAF. In this study, a probabilistic evaluation of many hypotheses in the assignment of measurements was not performed, so that the computation amount does not increase nonlinearly according to the number of measurements and tracks, and the track existence probability based on the track density The LM-IPDAF algorithm was introduced. This paper also proposes a method to reduce the computational complexity by improving the clutter density estimation method for calculating the track existence probability of LM-IPDAF. The performance was verified by a comparison with the existing algorithm through simulation. As a result, it was possible to reduce the simulation processing time by approximately 20% while achieving equivalent performance on the position RMSE and Confirmed True Track.

Influence of Statistical Compilation of Meteorological Data on Short-Term Atmospheric Dispersion Factors in a Hypothetical Accidental Release of Nuclear Power Plants (기상자료의 통계처리방법이 원자력발전소의 가상 사고시 단기 대기확산인자에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Won-Tae;Kim, Eun-Han;Jeong, Hae-Sun;Jeong, Hyo-Joon;Han, Moon-Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.37 no.3
    • /
    • pp.116-122
    • /
    • 2012
  • A short-term atmospheric dispersion factor (${\chi}/Q$) is an essential element for radiological dose assessment following a hypothetical accidental releases of light-water nuclear power plants. The U. S. NRC developed PAVAN program to comply with the U. S. NRC's Regulatory Guide 1.145. Meteorological data is an essential element for atmospheric dispersion, and PAVAN uses a joint frequency distribution data, which represents the occurrence probability of wind speed and wind direction for atmospheric stability. Using the meteorological data measured at Kori and Wolsung sites for the last 5 years (from 2006 to 2010), a variety of joint frequency distribution data were prepared to evaluate ${\chi}/Q$ values with different wind speed classifications (U. S. NRC's recommendation and even distribution of occurrence probability) and periods of meteorological data to be analyzed (1 year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year, 5 year). As a result, it was found that the influence of the wind speed classification on ${\chi}/Q$ values is little, while the influence of the periods of meteorological data to be analyzed is relatively significant, representing more than 1.5 times in the ratio of maximum to minimum values.

Reliability Analysis of Plane Failure in Rock Slope (암반사면의 평면파괴에 대한 신뢰성해석)

  • 장연수;오승현;김종수
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.119-126
    • /
    • 2002
  • A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from few in-situ samples and inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of failure for a rock cut slope. The results are compared with those of deterministic slope stability analysis. The random variables used are unit weight of the rock, the angle of potential slope of failure, and cohesion and internal friction angle of joints. It was found that the rock slope in which the factor of safety satisfied the minimum safety factor in the deterministic analysis has high probability of failure in the reliability analysis when the weak geological strata are involved in the cut slope. The probability of failure of rock slope is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of cohesion in rock joint among the random soil parameters included in the reliability analysis. Sensitivities of the mean values are larger than those of standard deviations, which means that accurate estimation of the mean for the in-situ geotechnical properties is important.

A probabilistic information retrieval model by document ranking using term dependencies (용어간 종속성을 이용한 문서 순위 매기기에 의한 확률적 정보 검색)

  • You, Hyun-Jo;Lee, Jung-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.32 no.5
    • /
    • pp.763-782
    • /
    • 2019
  • This paper proposes a probabilistic document ranking model incorporating term dependencies. Document ranking is a fundamental information retrieval task. The task is to sort documents in a collection according to the relevance to the user query (Qin et al., Information Retrieval Journal, 13, 346-374, 2010). A probabilistic model is a model for computing the conditional probability of the relevance of each document given query. Most of the widely used models assume the term independence because it is challenging to compute the joint probabilities of multiple terms. Words in natural language texts are obviously highly correlated. In this paper, we assume a multinomial distribution model to calculate the relevance probability of a document by considering the dependency structure of words, and propose an information retrieval model to rank a document by estimating the probability with the maximum entropy method. The results of the ranking simulation experiment in various multinomial situations show better retrieval results than a model that assumes the independence of words. The results of document ranking experiments using real-world datasets LETOR OHSUMED also show better retrieval results.