• 제목/요약/키워드: investment decision

Search Result 807, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.4
    • /
    • pp.43-71
    • /
    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

  • PDF

A Study of Improvement of School Health in Korea (학교보건(學校保健)의 개선방안(改善方案) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Soo Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
    • /
    • v.1 no.2
    • /
    • pp.118-135
    • /
    • 1988
  • This study is designed to analyze the problems of health education in schools and explore the ways of enhancing health education from a historical perspective. It also shed light on the managerial aspect of health education (including medical-check-up for students disease management. school feeding and the health education law and its organization) as well as its educational aspect (including curriculum, teaching & learning, and wishes of teachers). At the same time it attempted to present the ways of resolving the problems in health education as identified her. Its major findings are as follows; I. Colculsion and Summary 1. Despite the importance of health education, the area remains relatively undeveloped. Students spend a greater part of their time in schools. Hence the government should develop a keener awareness of the importance of health education and invest more in it to ensure a healthy, comfortable life for students. 2. At the moment the outcomes of medical-check-up for students, which constitutes the mainstay of health education, are used only as statistical data to report to the relevant authorities. Needless to say they should be used to help improve the wellbeing of students. Specifically, nurse-teachers and home-room teachers should share the outcomes of medical-check-up to help the students wit shortcomings in growth or development or other physical handicaps more clearly recognize their problems and correct them if possible. 3. In the area of disease management, 62.6, 30.3 and 23.0 percent of primary, middle, and highschool students, respectively, were found to suffer from dental ailments. By contrast 2.2, 7.8, and 11.5 percent of primary, middle and highschool students suffered from visual disorders. The incidence of dental ailments decreases while that of visual impairments increases as students grow up. This signifies that students are under tremendous physical strain in their efforts to be admitted by schools of higher grade. Accordingly the relevant authorities should revise the current admission system as well as improve lighting system in classrooms. 4. Budget restraints have often been cited as a major bottleneck to the expansion of school feeding. Nevertheless it should be extended at least, to all primary schools even at the expense of parents to ensure the sound growth of children by improving their diet. 5. The existing health education law should be revised in such a way as to better meet the needs of schools. Also the manpower for health education should be strengthened. 6. Proper curriculum is essential to the effective implementation of health education. Hence it is necessary to remove those parts in the current health education curriculum that overlaps with other subjects. It is also necessary to make health education a compulsory course in teachers' college at the same time the teachers in charge of health education should be given an in-service training. 7. Currently health education is being taught as part of physical education, science, home economics or other courses. However these subjects tend to be overshadowed by English, mathematics, and other subjects which carry heavier weight in admission test. It is necessary among other things, to develop an educational plan specifying the course hours and teaching materials. 8. Health education is carried out by nurse-teachers or home-room teachers. In connection with health education, they expressed the hope that health education will be normalized with newly-developed teaching material, expanded opportunity for in-service training and increased budget, facilities and supply of manpower. These are the mainpoints that the decision-makers should take into account in the formation of future policy for health education. II. Recommendations for the Improvement of Health Education 1. Regular medical check-up for students, which now is the mainstay of health education, should be used as educational data in an appropriate manner. For instance the records of medical check-up could be transferred between schools. 2. School feeding should be expanded at least in primary schools at the expense of the government or even parents. It will help improve the physical wellbeing of youths and the diet for the people. 3. At the moment the health education law is only nominal. Hence the law should be revised in such a way as to ensure the physical wellbeing of students and faculty. 4. Health education should be made a compulsory course in teachers' college. Also the teachers in service should be offered training in health education. 5. The curriculum of health education should be revised. Also the course hours should be extended or readjusted to better meet the needs of students. 6. In the meantime the course hours should be strictly observed, while educational materials should be revised in no time. 7. The government should expand its investment in facilities, budget and personnel for health education in schools at all levels.

  • PDF

Accounting Conservatism and Excess Executive Compensation (회계 보수주의와 경영자 초과보상)

  • Byun, Seol-Won;Park, Sang-Bong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.187-207
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study examines the negative relationship between accounting conservatism and excess executive compensation and examines whether their relationship increases as managerial incentive compensation intensity increases. For this purpose, a total of 2,755 company-years were selected for the analysis of the companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange from December 2012 to 2016 as the final sample. The results of this study are as follows. First, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between accounting conservatism and manager overpayment. This implies that managers' incentives to distort future cash flow estimates by over booking assets or accounting profits in order to maximize their compensation when manager compensation is linked to firm performance. In this sense, accounting conservatism can reduce opportunistic behavior by restricting managerial accounting choices, which can be interpreted as a reduction in overpayment to managers. Second, we found that the relationship between accounting conservatism and excess executive compensation increases with the incentive compensation for accounting performance. The higher the managerial incentive compensation intensity of accounting performance is, the more likely it is that the manager has the incentive to make earnings adjustments. Therefore, the high level of incentive compensation for accounting performance means that the ex post settling up problem due to over-compensation can become serious. In this case, the higher the managerial incentive compensation intensity for accounting performance, the greater the role and utility of conservatism in manager compensation contracts. This study is based on the fact that it presents empirical evidence on the usefulness of accounting conservatism in managerial compensation contracts theoretically presented by Watts (2003) and the additional basis that conservatism can be used as a useful tool for investment decision.

Economic Analysis of the Livestock Manure Treatment System Using Life-Cycle Cost Technique (LCC 기법을 통한 가축분뇨처리시설의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, J.H.;Cho, S.H.;Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Jeong, K.H.;Chung, U.S.;Chung, M.S.;Park, S.K.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
    • /
    • v.17 no.sup
    • /
    • pp.61-68
    • /
    • 2011
  • To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

WHICH INFORMATION MOVES PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM DAYS WITH DIVIDEND AND EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND INSIDER TRADING

  • Kim, Chan-Wung;Lee, Jae-Ha
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.233-265
    • /
    • 1996
  • We examine the impact of public and private information on price movements using the thirty DJIA stocks and twenty-one NASDAQ stocks. We find that the standard deviation of daily returns on information days (dividend announcement, earnings announcement, insider purchase, or insider sale) is much higher than on no-information days. Both public information matters at the NYSE, probably due to masked identification of insiders. Earnings announcement has the greatest impact for both DJIA and NASDAQ stocks, and there is some evidence of positive impact of insider asle on return volatility of NASDAQ stocks. There has been considerable debate, e.g., French and Roll (1986), over whether market volatility is due to public information or private information-the latter gathered through costly search and only revealed through trading. Public information is composed of (1) marketwide public information such as regularly scheduled federal economic announcements (e.g., employment, GNP, leading indicators) and (2) company-specific public information such as dividend and earnings announcements. Policy makers and corporate insiders have a better access to marketwide private information (e.g., a new monetary policy decision made in the Federal Reserve Board meeting) and company-specific private information, respectively, compated to the general public. Ederington and Lee (1993) show that marketwide public information accounts for most of the observed volatility patterns in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets. Company-specific public information is explored by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and Jennings and Starks (1985). They show that dividend and earnings announcements induce higher than normal volatility in equity prices. Kyle (1985), Admati and Pfleiderer (1988), Barclay, Litzenberger and Warner (1990), Foster and Viswanathan (1990), Back (1992), and Barclay and Warner (1993) show that the private information help by informed traders and revealed through trading influences market volatility. Cornell and Sirri (1992)' and Meulbroek (1992) investigate the actual insider trading activities in a tender offer case and the prosecuted illegal trading cased, respectively. This paper examines the aggregate and individual impact of marketwide information, company-specific public information, and company-specific private information on equity prices. Specifically, we use the thirty common stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and twenty one National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) common stocks to examine how their prices react to information. Marketwide information (public and private) is estimated by the movement in the Standard and Poors (S & P) 500 Index price for the DJIA stocks and the movement in the NASDAQ Composite Index price for the NASDAQ stocks. Divedend and earnings announcements are used as a subset of company-specific public information. The trading activity of corporate insiders (major corporate officers, members of the board of directors, and owners of at least 10 percent of any equity class) with an access to private information can be cannot legally trade on private information. Therefore, most insider transactions are not necessarily based on private information. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that market participants observe how insiders trade in order to infer any information that they cannot possess because insiders tend to buy (sell) when they have good (bad) information about their company. For example, Damodaran and Liu (1993) show that insiders of real estate investment trusts buy (sell) after they receive favorable (unfavorable) appraisal news before the information in these appraisals is released to the public. Price discovery in a competitive multiple-dealership market (NASDAQ) would be different from that in a monopolistic specialist system (NYSE). Consequently, we hypothesize that NASDAQ stocks are affected more by private information (or more precisely, insider trading) than the DJIA stocks. In the next section, we describe our choices of the fifty-one stocks and the public and private information set. We also discuss institutional differences between the NYSE and the NASDAQ market. In Section II, we examine the implications of public and private information for the volatility of daily returns of each stock. In Section III, we turn to the question of the relative importance of individual elements of our information set. Further analysis of the five DJIA stocks and the four NASDAQ stocks that are most sensitive to earnings announcements is given in Section IV, and our results are summarized in Section V.

  • PDF

A Study on Users' Resistance toward ERP in the Pre-adoption Context (ERP 도입 전 구성원의 저항)

  • Park, Jae-Sung;Cho, Yong-Soo;Koh, Joon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.77-100
    • /
    • 2009
  • Information Systems (IS) is an essential tool for any organizations. The last decade has seen an increasing body of knowledge on IS usage. Yet, IS often fails because of its misuse or non-use. In general, decisions regarding the selection of a system, which involve the evaluation of many IS vendors and an enormous initial investment, are made not through the consensus of employees but through the top-down decision making by top managers. In situations where the selected system does not satisfy the needs of the employees, the forced use of the selected IS will only result in their resistance to it. Many organizations have been either integrating dispersed legacy systems such as archipelago or adopting a new ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) system to enhance employee efficiency. This study examines user resistance prior to the adoption of the selected IS or ERP system. As such, this study identifies the importance of managing organizational resistance that may appear in the pre-adoption context of an integrated IS or ERP system, explores key factors influencing user resistance, and investigates how prior experience with other integrated IS or ERP systems may change the relationship between the affecting factors and user resistance. This study focuses on organizational members' resistance and the affecting factors in the pre-adoption context of an integrated IS or ERP system rather than in the context of an ERP adoption itself or ERP post-adoption. Based on prior literature, this study proposes a research model that considers six key variables, including perceived benefit, system complexity, fitness with existing tasks, attitude toward change, the psychological reactance trait, and perceived IT competence. They are considered as independent variables affecting user resistance toward an integrated IS or ERP system. This study also introduces the concept of prior experience (i.e., whether a user has prior experience with an integrated IS or ERP system) as a moderating variable to examine the impact of perceived benefit and attitude toward change in user resistance. As such, we propose eight hypotheses with respect to the model. For the empirical validation of the hypotheses, we developed relevant instruments for each research variable based on prior literature and surveyed 95 professional researchers and the administrative staff of the Korea Photonics Technology Institute (KOPTI). We examined the organizational characteristics of KOPTI, the reasons behind their adoption of an ERP system, process changes caused by the introduction of the system, and employees' resistance/attitude toward the system at the time of the introduction. The results of the multiple regression analysis suggest that, among the six variables, perceived benefit, complexity, attitude toward change, and the psychological reactance trait significantly influence user resistance. These results further suggest that top management should manage the psychological states of their employees in order to minimize their resistance to the forced IS, even in the new system pre-adoption context. In addition, the moderating variable-prior experience was found to change the strength of the relationship between attitude toward change and system resistance. That is, the effect of attitude toward change in user resistance was significantly stronger in those with prior experience than those with no prior experience. This result implies that those with prior experience should be identified and provided with some type of attitude training or change management programs to minimize their resistance to the adoption of a system. This study contributes to the IS field by providing practical implications for IS practitioners. This study identifies system resistance stimuli of users, focusing on the pre-adoption context in a forced ERP system environment. We have empirically validated the proposed research model by examining several significant factors affecting user resistance against the adoption of an ERP system. In particular, we find a clear and significant role of the moderating variable, prior ERP usage experience, in the relationship between the affecting factors and user resistance. The results of the study suggest the importance of appropriately managing the factors that affect user resistance in organizations that plan to introduce a new ERP system or integrate legacy systems. Moreover, this study offers to practitioners several specific strategies (in particular, the categorization of users by their prior usage experience) for alleviating the resistant behaviors of users in the process of the ERP adoption before a system becomes available to them. Despite the valuable contributions of this study, there are also some limitations which will be discussed in this paper to make the study more complete and consistent.

Analysis of the Weight of SWOT Factors of Korean Venture Companies Based on the Industry 4.0 (4차 산업혁명 기반 한국 벤처기업의 SWOT요인에 대한 중요도 분석)

  • Lee, Dongik;Lee, Sangsuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.115-133
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study examines the concept and related technologies of the 4th industrial revolution that has been mixed so far and examines the socio-economic changes and influences resulting from it, and the cases of responding to the 4th industrial revolution in major countries. Based on this, by deriving SWOT factors and calculating the importance of each factor for Korean venture companies to prepare for the forth industrial revolution, it was intended to help the government and policymakers in suggesting directions for establishing related policies. Furthermore, the purpose of this study was to suggest a direction for securing global competitiveness to Korean venture entrepreneurs and to help with basic and systematic analysis for further academic in-depth research. For this study, a total of 21 items derived through extensive literature research and data research to understand what are the necessary competency factors for internal and external environmental changes in order for Korean venture companies to have global competitiveness in the era of the 4th Industrial Revolution. After reviewing SWOT factors by three expert groups and confirming them through Delphi survey, the importance of each item was analyzed by using AHP, a systematic decision-making technique. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that Strength(48%), Opportunity(25%), Threat(16%), Weakness(11%) were considered important in order. In terms of sub-items, 'quick and flexible commercialization capability', 'platform/big data/non-face-to-face service activation', and 'ICT infrastructure and it's utilization' were shown to be of the comparatively high importance. On the other hand, in the lower three items, 'macro-economic stability and social infrastructure', 'difficulty in entering overseas markets due to global protectionism', and 'absolutely inferior in foreign investment' were found to have low priority. As a result of the correlation verification by item to see differences in opinions by industry, academia, and policy expert groups, there was no significant difference of opinion, as industry and academic experts showed a high correlation and industry experts and policy experts showed a moderate correlation. The correlation between the academic and policy experts was not statistically significant (p<0.01), so it was analyzed that there was a difference of opinion on importance. This was due to the fact that policy experts highly valued 'quick and flexible commercialization', which are strengths, and 'excellent educational system and high-quality manpower' and 'creation of new markets' which are opportunity items, while academic experts placed great importance on 'support part of government policy', which are strengths. The implication of this study is that in order for Korean venture companies to secure competitiveness in the field of the 4th industrial revolution, it is necessary to have a policy that preferentially supports the relevant items of strengths and opportunity factors. The difference in the details of strength factors and opportunity factors, which shows a high level of variability, suggests that it is necessary to actively review it and reflect it in the policy.

Fundamental Economic Feasibility Analysis on the Transition of Production Structure for a Forest Village in LAO PDR (라오스 산촌마을의 생산구조전환을 위한 투자 경제성 기초 분석)

  • Lee, Bohwe;Kim, Sebin;Lee, Joon-Woo;Rhee, Hakjun;Lee, Sangjin;Lee, Joong-goo;Baek, Woongi;Park, Bum-Jin;Koo, Seungmo
    • The Journal of the Korean Institute of Forest Recreation
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.11-22
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study analyzes the economic feasibility on the transition of production structure to increase income for a local forest village in Laos PDR. The study area was the Nongboua village in Sangthong district where the primary product is rice from rice paddy. Possible strategies were considered to increase the villagers' revenue, and Noni (Morinda citrifolia) was production in the short-term. We assumed that the project period was for 20 years for the analysis, and a total of 1,100 Noni tree was planted in 1 ha by $3m{\times}3m$ spacing. This study classified basic scenario one, scenario two, scenario three by the survival rate and purchase pirce of Noni. Generally Noni grows well. However, the seedlings' average survival rate (= production volume) was set up conservatively in this study to consider potential risks such as no production experience of Noni and tree disease. The scenario one assumed that the survival rate of Noni seedlings was 50% for 0-1 years, 60% for 0-2 years, and 70% for 3-20 years; the scenario two, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, and 60%; and the scenario three, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, 60% and purchase price 10% less, i.e., $0.29 to $0.26, respectively. Our analysis showed that all 3 scenarios resulted in economically-feasible IRR (internal rate of return) of 24.81%, 19.02%, and 16.30% of with a discounting rate of 10%. The B/C (benefit/cost) ratio for a unit area (1ha) was also analyzed for the three scenarios with a discounting rate of 10%, resutling in the B/C ratio of 1.71, 1.47, and 1.31. The study results showed that the Nongboua village would have a good opportunity to improve its low-income structure through planting and managing alternative crops such as Noni. Also the results can be used as useful decision-making information at a preliminary analysis level for planning other government and public investment projects for the Nonboua village.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.237-262
    • /
    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Active Seniors' Organizational and Functional Entrepreneurial Competencies: Discovering Unobserved Heterogeneous Relationships between Entrepreneurial Efficacy and Entrepreneurial Intention using PLS-POS (액티브 시니어의 조직적과 기능적 창업역량: PLS-POS를 이용한 창업 효능감과 창업의지의 이질성 관계 확인)

  • Shin, Hyang Sook;Bae, Jee-eun;Chao, Meiyu;Lee, Yong-Ki
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.15-31
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to suggest a start-up policy that includes start-up education and support for active seniors with various careers who try to change their careers before and after retirement. From this point of view, this study divided the factors affecting the entrepreneurial will of active seniors into entrepreneurship organizational and functional competency and identified the effect of these competencies on entrepreneurial efficacy and entrepreneurial intention. In the proposed model, start-up competency is divided into organizational competency (leadership, creativity problem-solving, communication, decision-making) and functional competency (management strategy, marketing, business plan). And this study examined the mediating role of entrepreneurial efficacy in the relationship between entrepreneurial competency factors and entrepreneurial intention. Meanwhile, PLS-POS analysis was performed to uncover the heterogeneity and pattern in the proposed structural model. The survey was conducted with the help of an online survey company from November 27 to December 15, 2020 for the active senior age group from 40 to under 65 years old. Data were collected from a total of 433 panelists and analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and SmartPLS 3.3.7 programs. The findings are as follows. First, the finding shows that the entrepreneurial organizational and functional competencies of active seniors had significant positive(+) effects on entrepreneurial efficacy. Second, the result shows that entrepreneurial organizational and functional competencies of active seniors had significant positive(+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Third, the findings show that entrepreneurship efficacy had a significantly positive(+) effect on entrepreneurial intention. The findings of PLS-POS show that entrepreneurship education needs to be carried out by identifying the needs that require entrepreneurial organizational and functional competency when training for entrepreneurship competency. In summary, the findings of the current study are to determine what the competency factors are for the government (local government) to increase the policy direction necessary for establishing and implementing entrepreneurship education and training programs to develop policies to enhance the economic activity participation rate of active seniors.