• Title/Summary/Keyword: internal standard method

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Application of Westgard Multi-Rules for Improving Nuclear Medicine Blood Test Quality Control (핵의학 검체검사 정도관리의 개선을 위한 Westgard Multi-Rules의 적용)

  • Jung, Heung-Soo;Bae, Jin-Soo;Shin, Yong-Hwan;Kim, Ji-Young;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.115-118
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The Levey-Jennings chart controlled measurement values that deviated from the tolerance value (mean ${\pm}2SD$ or ${\pm}3SD$). On the other hand, the upgraded Westgard Multi-Rules are actively recommended as a more efficient, specialized form of hospital certification in relation to Internal Quality Control. To apply Westgard Multi-Rules in quality control, credible quality control substance and target value are required. However, as physical examinations commonly use quality control substances provided within the test kit, there are many difficulties presented in the calculation of target value in relation to frequent changes in concentration value and insufficient credibility of quality control substance. This study attempts to improve the professionalism and credibility of quality control by applying Westgard Multi-Rules and calculating credible target value by using a commercialized quality control substance. Materials and Methods : This study used Immunoassay Plus Control Level 1, 2, 3 of Company B as the quality control substance of Total T3, which is the thyroid test implemented at the relevant hospital. Target value was established as the mean value of 295 cases collected for 1 month, excluding values that deviated from ${\pm}2SD$. The hospital quality control calculation program was used to enter target value. 12s, 22s, 13s, 2 of 32s, R4s, 41s, $10\bar{x}$, 7T of Westgard Multi-Rules were applied in the Total T3 experiment, which was conducted 194 times for 20 days in August. Based on the applied rules, this study classified data into random error and systemic error for analysis. Results: Quality control substances 1, 2, and 3 were each established as 84.2 ng/$dl$, 156.7 ng/$dl$, 242.4 ng/$dl$ for target values of Total T3, with the standard deviation established as 11.22 ng/$dl$, 14.52 ng/$dl$, 14.52 ng/$dl$ respectively. According to error type analysis achieved after applying Westgard Multi-Rules based on established target values, the following results were obtained for Random error, 12s was analyzed 48 times, 13s was analyzed 13 times, R4s was analyzed 6 times, for Systemic error, 22s was analyzed 10 times, 41s was analyzed 11 times, 2 of 32s was analyzed 17 times, $10\bar{x}$ was analyzed 10 times, and 7T was not applied. For uncontrollable Random error types, the entire experimental process was rechecked and greater emphasis was placed on re-testing. For controllable Systemic error types, this study searched the cause of error, recorded the relevant cause in the action form and reported the information to the Internal Quality Control committee if necessary. Conclusions : This study applied Westgard Multi-Rules by using commercialized substance as quality control substance and establishing target values. In result, precise analysis of Random error and Systemic error was achieved through the analysis of 12s, 22s, 13s, 2 of 32s, R4s, 41s, $10\bar{x}$, 7T rules. Furthermore, ideal quality control was achieved through analysis conducted on all data presented within the range of ${\pm}3SD$. In this regard, it can be said that the quality control method formed based on the systematic application of Westgard Multi-Rules is more effective than the Levey-Jennings chart and can maximize error detection.

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Report for Development of Korean Portable Cardiopulmonary Bypass II. Experimental Study of Portable Cardiopulmonary Bypass for Emergency Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation after Cardiac Arrest in Normal Dogs (한국형 이동식 심폐소생기 개발 보고 II. 응급소생술을 위한 이동식 심폐소생기의 동물 실험 연구)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Mook;Lee, In-Sung;Baek, Man-Jong;Sun, Kyung;Kim, Kwang-Taik;Lee, Hye-Won;Lee, Kyu-Back;Chang, Jun-Kuen;Kim, Chong-Won;Kim, Hark-Jei
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1147-1158
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    • 1998
  • Background: Portable cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) technique has been used increasingly as a potent and effective option for emergency cardiopulmonary resuscitation(CPR) because it can maintain more stable hemodynamics and provide better survival than conventional CPR techniques. This study was designed to develop a prototype of Korean portable CPB system and, by applying it to CPR, to discriminate whether it would be superior to standard open-chest CPR. Material and Method: By using adult mongrel dogs, open-chest CPR(OCPR group, n=4) and portable-CPB CPR(CPB group, n=4) were compared with respects to restoration of spontaneous circulation(ROSC), hemodynamics, effects on blood cells, blood gas patterns, biochemical markers, and survivals. Ventricular fibrillation-cardiac arrest(VF-CA) of arrest(VF-CA) of 4 minutes followed by basic life support(BLS) of 15 minutes was applied in either group, which was standardized by the protocol of American Heart Association. Then, advanced life support(ALS) was applied to either group under the support of internal cardiac massage or CPB. ALS was maintained until ROSC was achieved but not longer than 30 minutes regardless of the presence of ROSC. All of the measured values were expressed as means±SD percent change from baseline. Result: During the early ALS, higher mean arterial pressure was maintained in CPB group than in OCPR group(90±19 vs. 71±32 %; p<.05) and lower mean pulmonary arterial pressure was also maintained in CPB group than in OCPR group(105±24 vs. 146±6%; p<.05). ROSC was achieved in all dogs. Post-ROSC levels of hematocrit, RBC, and platelet were decreased and plasma free hemoglobin was increased significantly in CPB group compared to OCPR group(p<.05). Changes in blood gas patterns, lactate, and CK-MB levels were not different between groups. Early mortality was seen in 3 dogs in OCPR group(survival time 31±36 hours) and 2 in CPB group(228±153 hours, p=ns). The remainders in both groups showed prolonged survival. Conclusion: These findings indicate that portable CPB can be effective to maintain stable hemodynamics during cardiac arrest, to achieve ROSC and to prolong survival. Further study is needed to refine the portable CPB system and to meet clinical challenges.

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Early and Mid-Term Results of MIDCAB (최소 침습적 관상 동맥 우회술의 중단기 성적)

  • 손호성;방영호;황진욱;민병주;조양현;박성민;이성호;김광택;선경
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.827-832
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    • 2004
  • Background: The significance of MIDCAB is emerging topics recently as OPCAB is going to be universalized, and long-term outcome of bypass graft surgery was proved to be more excellent than balloon dilation or stent insertion. We report our MIDCAB results in 73 patients in the last three years. Material and Method: Retrospective analysis of medical records was done from November 1, 2000 through November 31, 2003. There were 47 males and 26 females ranging in age from 31 years to 79 years (average $61.3\pm9.8$ years). Observation periods after operative procedures were 10 to 1238 days (average $763\pm319.8$ days). Left longitudinal parasternal incision as a standard procedure was done to approach the heart after dissection of the left internal thoracic artery by partial or total resection of 3rd to 5th ribs. Result: Of those patients, 46 patients were transferred to ICU after extubation at operation room and 58 patients were extubated within 3 hours after operation. Average ICU staying periods was $26.8\pm11.5$ hours. Follow-up angiography during admission was done in 36 patients and showed 100% patency. Only one patient died on the 10$^{th}$ post operative day because of sudden CVA. Complications included wound problems in 4 patients, and constructing pericardial window using thoracoscopy due to continuous pericardial effusion in 1. Permanent pacemaker was inserted in one patient owing to sick sinus syndrome. In one patient with recurrence of angina 8 months after operation, stenosis at anastomic site was found and improved with balloon dilatation. Conclusion: We were satisfied with our results of MIDCAB in single and multi-vessel coronary artery disease. These results have made the cardiologists tried to operate positively and we expect widening operative indications including hybrid revascularization.

Mineralogical Characteristics of the Lower Choseon Supergroup in the Weondong Area (원동지역 하부 조선누층군의 광물학적 특성)

  • Kim, Ha;Sim, Ho;Won, Moosoo;Kim, Myeong-Ji;Lee, Ju-Ho;Song, Yun-Goo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.349-360
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    • 2016
  • This study determined mineralogical characteristics and discussed the meaning of mineralogical changes of the lower Choseon Supergrouop in the Weondong area based on the field geological investigation and the drilling core description using X-ray diffraction (XRD) mineral quantification and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observation. 100 samples with depth were collected from the core (250 m long) at a site in the study area. Especially, to investigate the changes from the upper Daegi Formation to the lower Hwajeol Formation, the samples were collected closely with the interval of about 0.3 m at this section. All samples were made into power using mortar for XRD. Mineral quantitative analysis was executed using Relative Intensity Ratio (RIR) method with corundum as an internal standard phase. Calcite, $2M_1$ illite and quartz are main constituents in most of samples. Dolomite and siderite are significantly observed in the Sesong Formation. As the results of quantitative analysis for the major minerals, the upper Daegi Formation is dominated by calcite with over 80%. The Sesong Formation includes high percentage of dolomite and siderite with the intercalation of thin layers containing high calcite and $2M_1$ illite contents. Hwajeol Formation is characterized by the alternation between thin layers of $2M_1$ illite and quartz-dominated layer (IQDL) and calcite-dominated layer (CDL). IQDL is more frequent in the lower part, whereas CDL is more common in the upper part. The boundary between Daegi Formation and the Sesong Formation is distinct, whereas the boundary between the Sesong Formation and the Hwajeol Formation tends to be changed gradually in mineralogy. The result of SEM observation shows that quartz and $2M_1$ illite are detrital, and a significant amount of calcite also shows detrital form with some recrystallized one, indicating that the repeated influx of terrestrial materials had changed the mineralogy of the shallow sea depositional environment in the early Paleozoic era.

Artifactual Perfusion Defects due to the Parameters of Reconstruction Filter in Tc-99m-MIBI Myocardial SPECT Images (Tc-99m-MIBI 심근 SPECT 영상에서 재구성 필터에 의한 인위적 관류결손에 관한 연구)

  • Kwark, Cheol-Eun;Lee, Kyung-Han;Lee, Dong-Soo;Park, Yong-Woo;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Seo, Joung-Don;Koh, Chang-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 1995
  • Tc-99m-MIBI(Sestamibi) myocardial SPECT along with T1-201 tomographic imaging has demonstrated wide application and high image qualify sufficient for the diagnosis of myocardial perfusion defect, which consequently reflects regional myocardial blood flow, The qualitative values of myocardial SPECT with Tc-99m-MIBI as well as the quantitative cases depend in some degree on the reconstruction techniques of multiple projections. Filtered backprojection(FBP) is the common standard for reconstruction rather than the complicated and time-consuming arithmetic methods. In FBP it Is known that the distribution of radioactivity in reconstructed transverse slices varies with the selected filter parameters such as cutoff frequencies and order(Butterworth case). The cutoff frequencies basically remove and decrease the true radioactive distribution and alter the pixel counts, which lead to underestimation of true counts in specific myocardial regions. In this study, we have investigated the effect of cutoff frequencies of reconstruction filter on the artifactually induced perfusion defects, which are often demonstrated near inferior and/or inferoseptal cardiac walls due to the intense hepatic uptake of Tc-99m-MIBI. A computerized method for identifying the relative degree of artifactual perfusion defect and for comparing those degrees along with the relative amount of hepatic uptake to myocardium was developed and patient images were studied to observe the quantitative degree of underestimation of myocardial perfusion, and to propose some reasonable thresh-old of cutoff frequency in the diagnosis of perfusion defect quantitatively. We concluded that from the quantitative viewpoint cutoff frequencies may be used as high as possible with the sacrifice of homogeneity of image quality, and those frequencies lower than the common 0.3 Nyquist frequency would reveal severe degradation of radio-active distribution near inferior and/or Inferoseptal myocardium when applying Butterworth or low pass filter.

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CLINCAL ANALYSIS OF SKELETAL STABILITY AFTER BSSRO FOR CORRECTION OF SKELETAL CLASS III MALOCCLUSION PATIENTS WITH ANTERIR OPEN BITE (전치부 개방교합을 동반한 골격성 제3급 부정교합 환자에 대한 양측 하악지 시상분할 골절단술후 안정성에 관한 임상적 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Soo;Kwon, Tae-Geon;Lee, Sang-Han;Kim, Chin-Su;Kang, Dong-Hwa;Jang, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.152-161
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted to patients visited oral maxillo-facial surgery, KNUH and the purpose of the study was to assess skeletal and dento-alveolar stability after surgical-orthodontic correction treated by skeletal Class III malocclusion patients with open bite versus non-open bite. This retrospective study was based on the examination of 40 patient, 19 males and 21 females, with a mean age 22.3 years. The patients were divided into two groups based on open bite and non-open bite skeletal Class III malocclusion patients. The cephalometric records of 40 skeletal Class III malocclusion patients (open bite: n = 18, non-open bite: n = 22) were examined at different time point, i.e. before surgery(T1), immediately after surgery(T2), one year after surgery(T3). Bilateral sagittal split ramus osteotomy was performed in 40 patients. Rigid internal fixation was standard method used in all patient. Through analysis and evaluation of the cephalometric records, we were able to achieve following results of post-surgical stability and relapse. 1. There was no significant statistical differences between open bite and non-open bite with skeletal Class III malocclusion patients in maxillary occlusal plane angle of pre-operative stage(p>0.05). 2. Mean vertical relapses of skeletal Class III malocclusion patients with open bite were $0.02{\pm}1.43mm$ at B point and $0.42{\pm}1.56mm$ at Pogonion point. In skeletal Class III malocclusion patients with non-open bite, $0.12{\pm}1.55mm$ at B point and $0.08{\pm}1.57mm$ at Pogonion point. There was no significant statistical differences between open bite and non-open bite with skeletal Class III malocclusion patients in vertical relapse(p>0.05). 3. Mean horizontal relapses of skeletal Class III malocclusion patients with open bite were $1.22{\pm}2.21mm$ at B point and $0.74{\pm}2.25mm$ at Pogonion point. In skeletal Class III malocclusion patients with non-open bite, $0.92{\pm}1.81mm$ at B point and $0.83{\pm}2.11mm$ at Pogonion point. There was no significant statistical differences between open bite and non-open bite with skeletal Class III malocclusion patients in horizontal relapse(p>0.05). 4. There were no significant statistical differences between open bite and non-open bite with skeletal Class III malocclusion patients in post-surgical mandibular stability(p>0.05). and we believe this is due to minimized mandibular condylar positional change using mandibular condylar positioning system and also rigid fixation using miniplate 5. Although there was no significant relapse tendency observed at chin points, according to the Pearson correlation analysis, the mandibular relapse was influenced by the amount of vertical and horizontal movement of mandibular set-back(p=0.05, r>0.304).

The Comorbidity of Periodic Limb Movements Disorder in Patients with Sleep-Related Breathing Disorder (수면관련 호흡장애 환자에서의 수면중 주기성 사지운동장애의 동반이환율)

  • Yang, Chang-Kook;Son, Choon-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.1039-1046
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    • 1998
  • Background: Sleep-related breathing disorders(SRBD) and periodic leg movements disorder(PLMD) are both common, and are considered as separate sleep disorders. However, both disorders show high comorbidity. SRBD and PLMD can result in excessive daytime sleepiness and insomnia due to frequent sleep fragmentation. So, it is very important to consider the presence of PLMD, when we are dealing with the diagnosis and management of SRBD. The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of PLMD in patients with SRBD, and to describe any differences between patients with and without PLMD. Method: The authors reviewed the sleep recordings of 106 patients with a final diagnosis of SRBD(obstructive sleep apnea or upper airway resistance syndrome), who underwent full nocturnal polysomnography, including the monitoring of the anterior tibialis electromyogram. All sleep records were recorded and scored using the standard criteria. The data was analyzed by the student t-test. Result: 106 patients(M=76, F=30) were included in the analysis. Data revealed a mean age of $49.5{\pm}13.6$ years, a respiratory disturbance index(RDI) of $22.3{\pm}25.4$/hour sleep, a lowest oxygen saturation of $84.9{\pm}11.3%$, a maximal esophageal pressure of $-41.0{\pm}19.1cmH_2O$, and PLM index(PLMI) of $13.1{\pm}22.4$movements/hour sleep. Forty four percent(47 of 106 patients) had a PLMI of greater than 5 on this study. The mean age of the patients with PLMD was significantly higher than that of the patients without PLMD(p<0.005). Female patients with SRBD accompanied more PLMD(p<0.05). The apnea index of the patients with PLMD was significantly lower than that of the patients without PLMD(p<0.01). The percentage of stage 1 sleep in the patients with PLMD was significantly lower than that of the patients without PLMD(p<0.05). Conclusion: The prevalence of PLMD in the patients with SRBD was high at 44.3%. The patients with PLMD were older and had more high RDI in comparison to the patients without PLMD, which was consistent with previous findings. The authors recommend that more careful consideration of PLMD is required when diagnosing and treating SRBD.

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An Analysis of the Moderating Effects of User Ability on the Acceptance of an Internet Shopping Mall (인터넷 쇼핑몰 수용에 있어 사용자 능력의 조절효과 분석)

  • Suh, Kun-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.27-55
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    • 2008
  • Due to the increasing and intensifying competition in the Internet shopping market, it has been recognized as very important to develop an effective policy and strategy for acquiring loyal customers. For this reason, web site designers need to know if a new Internet shopping mall(ISM) will be accepted. Researchers have been working on identifying factors for explaining and predicting user acceptance of an ISM. Some studies, however, revealed inconsistent findings on the antecedents of user acceptance of a website. Lack of consideration for individual differences in user ability is believed to be one of the key reasons for the mixed findings. The elaboration likelihood model (ELM) and several studies have suggested that individual differences in ability plays an moderating role on the relationship between the antecedents and user acceptance. Despite the critical role of user ability, little research has examined the role of user ability in the Internet shopping mall context. The purpose of this study is to develop a user acceptance model that consider the moderating role of user ability in the context of Internet shopping. This study was initiated to see the ability of the technology acceptance model(TAM) to explain the acceptance of a specific ISM. According to TAM. which is one of the most influential models for explaining user acceptance of IT, an intention to use IT is determined by usefulness and ease of use. Given that interaction between user and website takes place through web interface, the decisions to accept and continue using an ISM depend on these beliefs. However, TAM neglects to consider the fact that many users would not stick to an ISM until they trust it although they may think it useful and easy to use. The importance of trust for user acceptance of ISM has been raised by the relational views. The relational view emphasizes the trust-building process between the user and ISM, and user's trust on the website is a major determinant of user acceptance. The proposed model extends and integrates the TAM and relational views on user acceptance of ISM by incorporating usefulness, ease of use, and trust. User acceptance is defined as a user's intention to reuse a specific ISM. And user ability is introduced into the model as moderating variable. Here, the user ability is defined as a degree of experiences, knowledge and skills regarding Internet shopping sites. The research model proposes that the ease of use, usefulness and trust of ISM are key determinants of user acceptance. In addition, this paper hypothesizes that the effects of the antecedents(i.e., ease of use, usefulness, and trust) on user acceptance may differ among users. In particular, this paper proposes a moderating effect of a user's ability on the relationship between antecedents with user's intention to reuse. The research model with eleven hypotheses was derived and tested through a survey that involved 470 university students. For each research variable, this paper used measurement items recognized for reliability and widely used in previous research. We slightly modified some items proper to the research context. The reliability and validity of the research variables were tested using the Crobnach's alpha and internal consistency reliability (ICR) values, standard factor loadings of the confirmative factor analysis, and average variance extracted (AVE) values. A LISREL method was used to test the suitability of the research model and its relating six hypotheses. Key findings of the results are summarized in the following. First, TAM's two constructs, ease of use and usefulness directly affect user acceptance. In addition, ease of use indirectly influences user acceptance by affecting trust. This implies that users tend to trust a shopping site and visit repeatedly when they perceive a specific ISM easy to use. Accordingly, designing a shopping site that allows users to navigate with heuristic and minimal clicks for finding information and products within the site is important for improving the site's trust and acceptance. Usefulness, however, was not found to influence trust. Second, among the three belief constructs(ease of use, usefulness, and trust), trust was empirically supported as the most important determinants of user acceptance. This implies that users require trustworthiness from an Internet shopping site to be repeat visitors of an ISM. Providing a sense of safety and eliminating the anxiety of online shoppers in relation to privacy, security, delivery, and product returns are critically important conditions for acquiring repeat visitors. Hence, in addition to usefulness and ease of use as in TAM, trust should be a fundamental determinants of user acceptance in the context of internet shopping. Third, the user's ability on using an Internet shopping site played a moderating role. For users with low ability, ease of use was found to be a more important factors in deciding to reuse the shopping mall, whereas usefulness and trust had more effects on users with high ability. Applying the EML theory to these findings, we can suggest that experienced and knowledgeable ISM users tend to elaborate on such usefulness aspects as efficient and effective shopping performance and trust factors as ability, benevolence, integrity, and predictability of a shopping site before they become repeat visitors of the site. In contrast, novice users tend to rely on the low elaborating features, such as the perceived ease of use. The existence of moderating effects suggests the fact that different individuals evaluate an ISM from different perspectives. The expert users are more interested in the outcome of the visit(usefulness) and trustworthiness(trust) than those novice visitors. The latter evaluate the ISM in a more superficial manner focusing on the novelty of the site and on other instrumental beliefs(ease of use). This is consistent with the insights proposed by the Heuristic-Systematic model. According to the Heuristic-Systematic model. a users act on the principle of minimum effort. Thus, the user considers an ISM heuristically, focusing on those aspects that are easy to process and evaluate(ease of use). When the user has sufficient experience and skills, the user will change to systematic processing, where they will evaluate more complex aspects of the site(its usefulness and trustworthiness). This implies that an ISM has to provide a minimum level of ease of use to make it possible for a user to evaluate its usefulness and trustworthiness. Ease of use is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the acceptance and use of an ISM. Overall, the empirical results generally support the proposed model and identify the moderating effect of the effects of user ability. More detailed interpretations and implications of the findings are discussed. The limitations of this study are also discussed to provide directions for future research.

A Study on the Tree Surgery Problem and Protection Measures in Monumental Old Trees (천연기념물 노거수 외과수술 문제점 및 보존 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jong Soo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.122-142
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    • 2009
  • This study explored all domestic and international theories for maintenance and health enhancement of an old and big tree, and carried out the anatomical survey of the operation part of the tree toward he current status of domestic surgery and the perception survey of an expert group, and drew out following conclusion through the process of suggesting its reform plan. First, as a result of analyzing the correlation of the 67 subject trees with their ages, growth status. surroundings, it revealed that they were closely related to positional characteristic, damage size, whereas were little related to materials by fillers. Second, the size of the affected part was the most frequent at the bough sheared part under $0.09m^2$, and the hollow size by position(part) was the biggest at 'root + stem' starting from the behind of the main root and stem As a result of analyzing the correlation, the same result was elicited at the group with low correlation. Third, the problem was serious in charging the fillers (especially urethane) in the big hollow or exposed root produced at the behind of the root and stem part, or surface-processing it. The benefit by charging the hollow part was analyzed as not so much. Fourth, the surface-processing of fillers currently used (artificial bark) is mainly 'epoxy+woven fabric+cork', but it is not flexible, so it has brought forth problems of frequent cracks and cracked surface at the joint part with the treetextured part. Fifth, the correlation with the external status of the operated part was very high with the closeness, surface condition, formation of adhesive tissue and internal survey result. Sixth, the most influential thing on flushing by the wrong management of an old and big tree was banking, and a wrong pruning was the source of the ground part damage. In pruning a small bough can easily recover itself from its damage as its formation of adhesive tissue when it is cut by a standard method. Seventh, the parameters affecting the times of related business handling of an old and big tree are 'the need of the conscious reform of the manager and related business'. Eighth, a reform plan in an institutional aspect can include the arrangement of the law and organization of the old and big tree management and preservation at an institutional aspect. This study for preparing a reform plan through the status survey of the designated old and big tree, has a limit inducing a reform plan based on the status survey through individual research, and a weak point suggesting grounds by any statistical data. This can be complemented by subsequent studies.

DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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