• Title/Summary/Keyword: inherent uncertainty

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Uncertainty of Agricultural product Prices by Information Entropy Model using Probability Distribution for Monthly Prices (월별 가격의 확률분포를 이용한 정보엔트로피 모델에 의한 농산물가격의 불확정성)

  • Eun, Sang-Kyu;Jung, Nam-Su;Lee, Jeong-Jae;Bae, Yeong-Joung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2012
  • To analyze any given situation, it is necessary to have information on elements which affect the situation. Particularly, there is greater variability in both frequency and magnitude of agricultural product prices as they are affected by various unpredictable factors such as weather conditions etc. This is the reason why it is difficult for the farmers to maintain their stable income through agricultural production and marketing. In this research, attempts are made to quantify the entropy of various situations inherent in the price changes so that the stability of farmers' income can be increased. Through this research, we developed an entropy model which can quantify the uncertainties of price changes using the probability distribution of price changes. The model was tested for its significance by comparing its simulation outcomes with actual ranges and standard deviations of price variations of the past using monthly agricultural product prices data. We confirmed that the simulation results reflected the features of the ranges and standard deviations of actual price variations. Also, it is possible for us to predict standard deviations for changed prices which will occur after a certain time using the information entropy obtained from relevant agricultural product price data before the time.

A Study on Computing Stochastic Capacity of Energy Storage Systems using Monte Carlo Simulations (몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션 기반 변동성을 고려한 에너지 저장 시스템 용량 계산에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Soowhan;Ryu, Jun-Hyung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.424-429
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    • 2020
  • An Energy Storage System (ESS) is recently drawing an increasing attention as an efficient tool to cope with variation in the energy system. In order to take the best utilization of ESS, the inherent variation of energy supply and demand should be properly addressed. This paper is concerned with computing the stochastic capacity of ESS in the face of such variations by way of Monte Carlo simulation. The issue of uncertainty in energy systems will be given further focus. More works are expected to be followed to address the issues in academia and industry.

Particle Filter Localization Using Noisy Models (잡음 모델을 이용한 파티클 필터 측위)

  • Kim, In-Cheol;Kim, Seung-Yeon;Kim, Hye-Suk
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.19B no.1
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    • pp.27-30
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    • 2012
  • One of the most fundamental functions required for an intelligent agent is to estimate its current position based upon uncertain sensor data. In this paper, we explain the implementation of a robot localization system using Particle filters, which are the most effective one of the probabilistic localization methods, and then present the result of experiments for evaluating the performance of our system. Through conducting experiments to compare the effect of the noise-free model with that of the noisy state transition model considering inherent errors of robot actions, we show that it can help improve the performance of the Particle filter localization to apply a state transition model closely approximating the uncertainty of real robot actions.

A critical study on best methodology to perform UQ for RIA transients and application to SPERT-III experiments

  • Dokhane, A.;Vasiliev, A.;Hursin, M.;Rochman, D.;Ferroukhi, H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.1804-1812
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this paper is to assess the reliability and accuracy of the PSI standard method, used in many previous works, for the quantification of ND uncertainties in the SPERT-III RIA transient, by quantifying the discrepancy between the actual inserted reactivity and the original static reactivity worth and their associated uncertainties. The assessment has shown that the inherent S3K neutron source renormalization scheme, introduced before starting the transient, alters the original static reactivity worth of the transient CR and reduces the associated uncertainty due to the ND perturbation. In order to overcome these limitations, two additional methods have been developed based on CR adjustment. The comparative study performed between the three methods has showed clearly the high sensitivity of the obtained results to the selected approach and pointed out the importance of using the right procedure in order to simulate correctly the effect of ND uncertainties on the overall parameters in a RIA transient. This study has proven that the approach that allows matching the original static reactivity worth and starting the transient from criticality is the most reliable method since it conservatively preserves the effect of the ND uncertainties on the inserted reactivity during a RIA transient.

Comparing type-1, interval and general type-2 fuzzy approach for dealing with uncertainties in active control

  • Farzaneh Shahabian Moghaddam;Hashem Shariatmadar
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.199-212
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays fuzzy logic in control applications is a well-recognized alternative, and this is thanks to its inherent advantages. Generalized type-2 fuzzy sets allow for a third dimension to capture higher order uncertainty and therefore offer a very powerful model for uncertainty handling in real world applications. With the recent advances that allowed the performance of general type-2 fuzzy logic controllers to increase, it is now expected to see the widespread of type-2 fuzzy logic controllers to many challenging applications in particular in problems of structural control, that is the case study in this paper. It should be highlighted that this is the first application of general type-2 fuzzy approach in civil structures. In the following, general type-2 fuzzy logic controller (GT2FLC) will be used for active control of a 9-story nonlinear benchmark building. The design of type-1 and interval type-2 fuzzy logic controllers is also considered for the purpose of comparison with the GT2FLC. The performance of the controller is validated through the computer simulation on MATLAB. It is demonstrated that extra design degrees of freedom achieved by GT2FLC, allow a greater potential to better model and handle the uncertainties involved in the nature of earthquakes and control systems. GT2FLC outperforms successfully a control system that uses T1 and IT2 FLCs.

Robust seismic retrofit design framework for asymmetric soft-first story structures considering uncertainties

  • Assefa Jonathan Dereje;Jinkoo Kim
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.86 no.2
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2023
  • The uncertainties involved in structural performances are of importance when the optimum number and property of seismic retrofit devices are determined. This paper proposes a seismic retrofit design framework for asymmetric soft-first-story buildings, considering uncertainties in the soil condition and seismic retrofit device. The effect of the uncertain parameters on the structural performance is used to find a robust and optimal seismic retrofit solution. The framework finds a robust and optimal seismic retrofit solution by finding the optimal locations and mechanical properties of the seismic retrofit device for different realizations of the uncertain parameters. The structural performance for each realization is computed to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty parameters on the seismic performance. The framework utilizes parallel processing to decrease the computationally intensive nonlinear dynamic analysis time. The framework returns a robust design solution that satisfies the given limit state for every realization of the uncertain parameters. The proposed framework is applied to the seismic retrofit design of a five-story asymmetric soft-first-story case study structure retrofitted with a viscoelastic damper. Robust optimal parameters for retrofitting a structure to satisfy the limit state for the different realizations of the uncertain parameter are found using the proposed framework. According to the performance evaluation results of the retrofitted structure, the developed framework is proved effective in the seismic retrofit of the asymmetric structure with inherent uncertainties.

Prediction of Ground Condition and Evaluation of its Uncertainty by Simulated Annealing (모의 담금질 기법을 이용한 지반 조건 추정 및 불확실성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu Dong-Woo
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.15 no.4 s.57
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    • pp.275-287
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    • 2005
  • At the planning and design stages of a development of underground space or tunneling project, the information regarding ground conditions is very important to enhance economical efficiency and overall safety In general, the information can be expressed using RMR or Q-system and with the geophysical exploration image. RMR or Q-system can provide direct information of rock mass in a local scale for the design scheme. Oppositely, the image of geophysical exploration can provide an exthaustive but indirect information. These two types of the information have inherent uncertainties from various sources and are given in different scales and with their own physical meanings. Recently, RMR has been estimated in unsampled areas based on given data using geostatistical methods like Kriging and conditional simulation. In this study, simulated annealing(SA) is applied to overcome the shortcomings of Kriging methods or conditional simulations just using a primary variable. Using this technique, RMR and the image of geophysical exploration can be integrated to construct the spatial distribution of RM and to evaluate its uncertainty. The SA method was applied to solve an optimization problem with constraints. We have suggested the practical procedure of the SA technique for the uncertainty evaluation of RMR and also demonstrated this technique through an application, where it was used to identify the spatial distribution of RMR and quantify the uncertainty. For a geotechnical application, the objective functions of SA are defined using statistical models of RMR and the correlations between RMR and the reference image. The applicability and validity of this application are examined and then the result of uncertainty evaluation can be used to optimize the tunnel layout.

A Study on Stability of Marine Embankment Using Reliability Analysis (신뢰성해석을 이용한 호안제체의 안정성에 관한 연구)

  • 박준모;장연수;오세웅
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2003.03a
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    • pp.789-796
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    • 2003
  • A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from the limited in-situ samples and the inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of piping for the marine embankment near shore. The result are compared with those of the deterministic piping stability analysis performed using the fininte element flow analysis. The random variables used are hydraulic conductivity of the ground subsurface and embankment, and the water level of both internal and external side of the embankment. The probability of piping is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of internal water level of the embankment among the random variables included in the reliability analysis. It is found that the lower limits of internal water level which satisfies the allowable proability of piping failure for the embankment studied were E.L(-) 1.83m and E.L(-) 1.48m during and after the construction of the embankment, respectively.

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Precise Measurement of High Current Shunt Resistance (대전류 분류기 저항의 정밀측정)

  • Kim K.-T.;Han K.-S.;Kwon S.-W.;Kim M.-S.;Jeong J.Y.;Kim I.S.
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers C
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.403-406
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    • 2005
  • Precise measurement of extremely low resistance shunt is important for characterization and calibration of high current instruments. We tested resistance measurement method for extremely high current shunt (up to 140 kA), where resistance is determined by precise measurement of voltage drop at 10 A test current in the frequency range of 40 Hz to 10 kHz. For the extremely low ac voltage to be precisely measured, a verification of the measurement method was also carried, where the inherent noise is systematically evaluated. The measurement uncertainty was estimated to be $1\;\%\;at\;95\;\%$ confidence level (k=2) for about 50 $\mu\Omega$.

Color Data Clustering Algorithm using Fuzzy Color Model (퍼지컬러 모델을 이용한 컬러 데이터 클러스터링 알고리즘1)

  • Kim, Dae-Won;Lee, Kwang H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.119-122
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    • 2002
  • The research Interest of this paper is focused on the efficient clustering task for an arbitrary color data. In order to tackle this problem, we have tiled to model the inherent uncertainty and vagueness of color data using fuzzy color model. By laking a fuzzy approach to color modeling, we could make a soft decision for the vague regions between neighboring colors. The proposed fuzzy color model defined a three dimensional fuzzy color ball and color membership computation method with the two inter-color distance measures. With the fuzzy color model, we developed a new fuzzy clustering algorithm for an efficient partition of color data. Each fuzzy cluster set has a cluster prototype which is represented by fuzzy color centroid.

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