• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.171-171
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• 2020

Decision making strategies should consider both adaptiveness and robustness in order to deal with two main characteristics of climate change: non-stationarity and deep uncertainty. Especially, robust strategies are different from traditional optimal strategies in the sense that they are satisfactory over a wider range of uncertainty and may act as a key when confronting climate change. In this study, a new framework named Robust Stochastic Dynamic Programming (R-SDP) is proposed, which couples previously developed robust optimization (RO) into the objective function and constraint of SDP. Two main approaches of RO, feasibility robustness and solution robustness, are considered in the optimization algorithm and consequently, three models to be tested are developed: conventional-SDP (CSDP), R-SDP-Feasibility (RSDP-F), and R-SDP-Solution (RSDP-S). The developed models were used to derive optimal monthly release rules in a single reservoir, and multiple simulations of the derived monthly policy under inflow scenarios with varying mean and standard deviations are undergone. Simulation results were then evaluated with a wide range of evaluation metrics from reliability, resiliency, vulnerability to additional robustness measures. Evaluation results were finally visualized with advanced visualization tools that are used in multi-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework. As a result, RSDP-F and RSDP-S models yielded more risk averse, or conservative, results than the CSDP model, and a trade-off relationship between traditional and robustness metrics was discovered.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.122-122
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• 2021

전 세계적인 기후변화로 인해 태풍과 집중호우의 빈도와 규모가 증가하고 있으며 그로 인해 수재해 대응과 수자원 관리에 많은 어려움이 따른다. 댐 운영은 이러한 수자원 관리의 중요한 요소이며 정확한 댐 유입량의 예측은 효율적인 댐 운영과 관리의 필수적인 부분이다. 최근에는 여러 분야에서 활용되고 있는 딥러닝 모델을 활용하여 댐 유입량 예측에 관한 다수의 연구들이 수행되고 있다. 특히, 수문 시계열의 장기적인 특성과 비선형적인 관계를 고려하기 위해 연속형 모의를 기반으로 하는 딥러닝 모델의 적용 및 평가와 관련 연구의 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 연속형 모의를 기반으로 하는 딥러닝 모델을 활용하여 댐 유입량 예측을 수행하고자 하며 이의 적용성을 평가하고자 한다. 적용 대상 지역으로는 안동댐 상류 유역을 선정하였으며 2006년부터 2020년까지의 시 단위 강우 및 댐 유입량 자료를 활용하였다. 선행시간(1~6시간)별 예측 유입량과 관측 유입량의 비교를 통한 정량적 평가를 수행하였다. 또한 입력 자료에 대한 과거 기간, 모델 구성, 손실함수 등에 대한 조건별 평가를 통해 예측 정확도의 변화에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 본 연구결과를 통해, 딥러닝 기반의 댐 유입량 예측 정확도에 대한 향상과 실시간 예측을 위한 딥러닝 모델의 활용성 증대에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. 향후, 강우 예보 자료를 연계한 딥러닝 기반의 실시간 댐 유입량 예측 기법을 제안하고 이의 활용성을 평가하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2010.09a
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• pp.800-807
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• 2010

In this study, a series of numerical analyses has been performed in order to evaluate the performance of a full-scale closed-loop vertical ground heat exchanger constructed in Wonju. The circulation pipe HDPE, borehole and surrounding ground were modeled using FLUENT, a finite-volume method (FVM) program, for analyzing the heat transfer process of the system. Two user-defined functions (UDFs) accounting for the difference in the temperatures of the circulating inflow and outflow water and the change of the surrounding ground temperature with depth were adopted in the FLUENT model. The thermal properties of materials estimated in laboratory were used in the numerical analyses to compare the thermal efficiency of the cement grout with that of the bentonite grout used in the construction. The results of the simulation provide a verification of the in situ thermal response test data. The numerical model with the ground thermal conductivity of 4W/mK yielded the simulation result closer to the in-situ thermal response test than with the ground thermal conductivity of 3W/mK. From the results of the numerical analyses, the effective thermal conductivities of the cement and bentonite grouts were obtained to be 3.32W/mK and 2.99 W/mK, respectively.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.63-70
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• 2014

In the present study, CFD simulations were conducted for investigating intra-aneurysmal flow characteristics with different stent porosities ($C_{\alpha}$ = 80%, 74%, and 64%), and the simulation results were compared with experimental data. Using a quadratic tetrahedral element-based finite element scheme, we estimated velocity fields and wall shear stress. The intra-aneurysmal velocity reduction ratios obtained via simulation agree well with published experimental data. It was found that a stent with a porosity of 80%, which is highest in the present study, is able to effectively reduce flow into the aneurysm, which causes intra-aneurysmal stasis, and that stents with lower porosities afford only incremental benefits in reducing inflow to an aneurysm.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.75-96
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• 2008

A better understanding of tornado-induced wind loads is needed to improve the design of typical structures to resist these winds. An accurate understanding of the loads requires knowledge of near-ground tornado winds, but observations in this region are lacking. The first goal of this study was to verify how well a CFD model, when driven by far field radar observations and laboratory measurements, could capture the flow characteristics of both full scale and laboratory-simulated tornadoes. A second goal was to use the model to examine the sensitivity of the simulations to various parameters that might affect the laboratory simulator tornado. An understanding of near-ground winds in tornadoes will require coordinated efforts in both computational and physical simulation. The sensitivity of computational simulations of a tornado to geometric parameters and surface roughness within a domain based on the Iowa State University laboratory tornado simulator was investigated. In this study, CFD simulations of the flow field in a model domain that represents a laboratory tornado simulator were conducted using Doppler radar and laboratory velocity measurements as boundary conditions. The tornado was found to be sensitive to a variety of geometric parameters used in the numerical model. Increased surface roughness was found to reduce the tangential speed in the vortex near the ground and enlarge the core radius of the vortex. The core radius was a function of the swirl ratio while the peak tangential flow was a function of the magnitude of the total inflow velocity. The CFD simulations showed that it is possible to numerically simulate the surface winds of a tornado and control certain parameters of the laboratory simulator to influence the tornado characteristics of interest to engineers and match those of the field.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.95-102
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• 1994

The series of the papers consist of three parts to describe the development, calibration, and applications of the flood forecasting models for the Youngsan Estuarine Dam located at the mouth of the Youngsan river. And this paper discusses the hydrologic model for inflow simulation at Naju station, which constitutes 64 percent of the drainage basin of 3521 .6km$^2$ in area. A simplified TANK model was formulated to simulate hourly runoff from rainfall And the model parameters were optirnized using historical storm data, and validated with the records. The results of this paper were summarized as follows. 1. The simplified TANK model was formulated to conceptualize the hourly rainfall-run-off relationships at a watershed with four tanks in series having five runoff outlets. The runoff from each outlet was assumed to be proportional to the storage exceeding a threshold value. And each tank was linked with a drainage hole from the upper one. 2. Fifteen storm events from four year records from 1984 to 1987 were selected for this study. They varied from 81 to 289rn'm The watershed averaged, hourly rainfall data were determined from those at fifteen raingaging stations using a Thiessen method. Some missing and unrealistic records at a few stations were estimated or replaced with the values determined using a reciprocal distance square method from abjacent ones. 3. An univariate scheme was adopted to calibrate the model parameters using historical records. Some of the calibrated parameters were statistically related to antecedent precipitation. And the model simulated the streamflow close to the observed, with the mean coefficient of determination of 0.94 for all storm events. 4. The simulated streamflow were in good agreement with the historical records for ungaged condition simulation runs. The mean coefficient of determination for the runs was 0.93, nearly the same as calibration runs. This may indicates that the model performs very well in flood forecasting situations for the watershed.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.111-122
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• 1989

A multiple box model which is suitable for the prediction of water quality in shallow lakes with active mixing is a water quality model expected to be used widely in estuary reservoir. In this study, a multiple box water quality model for estuary reservoirs (MBQER) was developed arid the applicability of the MBQER was tested by applying data obtained from Asan-estuary reservoir. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. 1. The MBQER, dynamic water quality model, was developed to estimate 10-day water qualities of estuary reservoirs. For the proper analysis and the application of hydraulics needed to build a model, lake hydraulics was simplified by condisering only hydrological inflow and lake mixing currents. The box division in the MBQER is longitudinal one dimension for upper and middle part, and two layers for lower part of the reservoir. 2. The methods of box division for the multiple box model were ekamined and applied to Asan-estuary reservoir. For determining the number of boxes, Pe number and Pk number were used. In case of three boxes, the error by the model simplification would be estimated about 5 % Therefore, in Asan reservoir, the proper number of boxes was three. 3. The MBQER was calibrated and verified using measured data in Asan-estuary reservoir from 1986 to 1988. The Root Mean Squares(RMS) for the differences between measured data and simulated results by the MBQER were 1.10$^{\circ}$C C for water temperature, 75.8mg/1 for salinity, 0.082mg/1 for total-phosphorus showing good estimations. 4. Through the simulation of water temperature and salinity by the MBQER, the exchange flow and the mixing coefficients for the estuary lake were determined. As a result of simulation, the horizontal mixing coefficients in Asan-estuary reservoir were in the range of 1.07X 105 to 1.12X 105 cm$^2$/sec and vertical mixing coefficient was 2.90X 10-1 cm$^2$/sec.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.116-129
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• 1990

A rational management of water resources in estuary reservoirs necessiates the prediction of water quality. In this study, a multiple box model for the water quality prediction was developed as a tool for the purpose of examining an adequate way to improve and maintain the water quality. Some submodels that are suitable for simulating the mixing behavior of pollutant materials in a lake were considered in this model. The model was appiled for predicting water qualities of Haenam Esturay Reservoir. The result from this study can be summarized as follows : 1.A water quality simulation model that can predict the 10-day mean value of water qualities was developed by adding some submodels that simulate the concentrations of chlorophyll-a, BOD, T-P and T-N to the existing Multiple Box Model representing the mixing and circulating of materials by the hydarulic action. 2.As input data for the model developed, the climatic data including precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, cloudness, wind speed and relative humidity, and the water buget records including the pumping discharge and the releasing discharge by drainage gate were ollected. The hydrologic data for the inflow discharge from the watershed was obtained by simulation with the aid of USDAUL-74/SNUA watershed model. Also the water quality data were measured at streams and the reservoir. 3.As a result of calibration and verification test by using four comonents of water quality such as Chlorophyll-a, BOD, T-P and T-N, it was found that the correlation coefficeints between the observed and the simulated water qualities showed greater than 0.6, therefore the capability of the model to simulate the water quality was proved. 4.The result based on the model application showed that the water quality of the Haenam Estuary Reservoir varies seasonally with the harmonic trend, however the water quality is good in winter and get worse in summer. Also it may be concluded that the current grarde of water quality in the Heanam Esutary Reservoir is ranked as grade 4 suitable only for the agricultutal use.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.809-824
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• 2009

Hydrological system forecasting, which is the short term runoff historical data during the limited period in dam site, is a conditional precedent of hydrological persistence by stochastic analysis. We have forecasted the monthly hydrological system from Andong dam basin data that is the rainfall, evaporation, and runoff, using the seasonal ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. Also we have conducted long term runoff simulations through the forecasted results of TANK model and ARIMA+TANK model. The results of analysis have been concurred to the observation data, and it has been considered for application to possibility on the stochastic model for dam inflow forecasting. Thus, the method presented in this study suggests a help to water resource mid- and long-term strategy establishment to application for runoff simulations through the forecasting variables of hydrological time series on the relatively short holding runoff data in an object basins.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2012

In this paper, we study the relationship between FDI(Foreign Direct Investment) and economic growth in Kazakhstan. For this research, we, first, investigate the factors that affect FDI infow to Kazakhstan since its independence and determine the degree of their influence. Second, we study the impact of FDI per capita on GDP per capita. To achieve these goals, an empirical study is conducted with 18 years data from 1992 to 2009 from World Bank Database. Data are analyzed using multiple linear regression, time series analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that the determinant of FDI is GDP and economic freedom index in Kazakhstan. Economic growth is affected by FDI, too. Specially, FDI is positively related to GDP and economic freedom index. FDI per capita's impact on GDP per capita is 30.4 dollars increase in GDP per capita by one dollar increase in FDI per capital inflow. The results provides useful information for policy makers to improve obtaining large amount of investments and facilitate economic growth.