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Analysis of Marginal Count Failure Data by using Covariates

  • Karim, Md.Rezaul;Suzuki, Kazuyuki
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2003
  • Manufacturers collect and analyze field reliability data to enhance the quality and reliability of their products and to improve customer satisfaction. To reduce the data collecting and maintenance costs, the amount of data maintained for evaluating product quality and reliability should be minimized. With this in mind, some industrial companies assemble warranty databases by gathering data from different sources for a particular time period. This “marginal count failure data” does not provide (i) the number of failures by when the product entered service, (ii) the number of failures by product age, or (iii) information about the effects of the operating season or environment. This article describes a method for estimating age-based claim rates from marginal count failure data. It uses covariates to identify variations in claims relative to variables such as manufacturing characteristics, time of manufacture, operating season or environment. A Poisson model is presented, and the method is illustrated using warranty claims data for two electrical products.

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Analysis of Forestry Structure and Induced Output Based on Input - output Table - Influences of Forestry Production on Korean Economy - (산업관련표(産業關聯表)에 의(依)한 임업구조분석(林業構造分析)과 유발생산액(誘發生産額) -임업(林業)이 한국경제(韓國經濟)에 미치는 영향(影響)-)

  • Lee, Sung-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.4-14
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    • 1974
  • The total forest land area in Korea accounts for some 67 percent of the nation's land total. Its productivity, however, is very low. Consequently, forest production accounts for only about 2 percent of the gross national product and a minor proportion of no more than about 5 percent versus primary industry. In this case, however, only the direct income from forestry is taken into account, making no reference to the forestry output induced by other industrial sectors. The value added Or the induced forestry output in manufacturing the primary wood products into higher quality products, makes a larger contribution to the economy than direct contribution. So, this author has tried to analyze the structure of forestry and compute the repercussion effect and the induced output of primary forest products when utilized by other industries for their raw materials, Hsing the input-output table and attached tables for 1963 and 1966 issued by the Bank of Korea. 1. Analysis of forestry structure A. Changes in total output Durng the nine-year period, 1961-1969, the real gross national product in Korea increased 2.1 times, while that of primary industries went up about 1. 4 times. Forestry which was valued at 9,380 million won in 1961, was picked up about 2. 1 times to 20, 120 million won in 1969. The rate of the forestry income in the GNP, accordingly, was no more than 1.5 percent both in 1961 and 1962, whereas its rate in primary industries increased 3.5 to 5.4 percent. Such increase in forestry income is attributable to increased forest production and rise in timber prices. The rate of forestry income, nonetheless, was on the decrease on a gradual basis. B. Changes in input coefficient The input coefficient which indicates the inputs of the forest products into other sectors were up in general in 1966 over 1963. It is noted that the input coefficient indicating the amount of forest products supplied to such industries closely related with forestry as lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture, showed a downward trend for the period 1963-1966. On the other hand, the forest input into other sectors was generally on the increase. Meanwhile, the input coefficient representing the yolume of the forest products supplied to the forestry sector itself showed an upward tendency, which meant more and more decrease in input from other sectors. Generally speaking, in direct proportion to the higher input coefficient in any industrial sector, the reinput coefficient which denotes the use of its products by the same sector becomes higher and higher. C. Changes in ratio of intermediate input The intermediate input ratio showing the dependency on raw materials went up to 15.43 percent m 1966 from 11. 37 percent in 1963. The dependency of forestry on raw materials was no more than 15.43 percent, accounting for a high 83.57 percent of value added. If the intermediate input ratio increases in any given sector, the input coefficient which represents the fe-use of its products by the same sector becomes large. D. Changes in the ratio of intermediate demand The ratio of the intermediate demand represents the characteristics of the intermediary production in each industry, the intermediate demand ratio in forestry which accunted for 69.7 percent in 1963 went up to 75.2 percent in 1966. In other words, forestry is a remarkable industry in that there is characteristics of the intermediary production. E. Changes in import coefficient The import coefficient which denotes the relation between the production activities and imports, recorded at 4.4 percent in 1963, decreased to 2.4 percent in 1966. The ratio of import to total output is not so high. F. Changes in market composition of imported goods One of the major imported goods in the forestry sector is lumber. The import value increased by 60 percent to 667 million won in 1966 from 407 million won in 1963. The sales of imported forest products to two major outlets-lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture-increased to 343 million won and 31 million won in 1966 from 240million won and 30 million won in 1963 respectively. On the other hand, imported goods valued at 66 million won were sold to the paper products sector in 1963; however, no supply to this sector was recorded in 1963. Besides these major markets, primary industries such as the fishery, coal and agriculture sectors purchase materials from forestry. 2. Analysis of repercussion effect on production The repercussion effect of final demand in any given sector upon the expansion of the production of other sectors was analyzed, using the inverse matrix coefficient tables attached to the the I.O. Table. A. Changes in intra-sector transaction value of inverse matrix coefficient. The intra-sector transaction value of an inverse matrix coefficient represents the extent of an induced increase in the production of self-support products of the same sector, when it is generated directly and indirectly by one unit of final demand in any given sector. The intra-sector transaction value of the forestry sector rose from 1.04 in 1963 to 1, 11 in 1966. It may well be said, therefore, that forestry induces much more self-supporting products in the production of one unit of final demand for forest products. B. Changes in column total of inverse matrix coefficient It should be noted that the column total indicates the degree of effect of the output of the corresponding and related sectors generated by one unit of final demand in each sector. No changes in the column total of the forestry sector were recorded between the 1963 and 1966 figures, both being the same 1. 19. C. Changes in difference between column total and intra-sector transaction amount. The difference between the column total and intra-sector transaction amount by sector reveals the extent of effect of output of related industrial sector induced indirectly by one unit of final demand in corresponding sector. This change in forestry dropped remarkable to 0.08 in 1966 from 0.15 in 1963. Accordingly, the effect of inducement of indirect output of other forestry-related sectors has decreased; this is a really natural phenomenon, as compared with an increasing input coefficient generated by the re-use of forest products by the forestry sector. 3. Induced output of forestry A. Forest products, wood in particular, are supplied to other industries as their raw materials, increasng their value added. In this connection the primary dependency rate on forestry for 1963 and 1966 was compared, i. e., an increase or decrease in each sector, from 7.71 percent in 1963 to 11.91 percent in 1966 in agriculture, 10.32 to 6.11 in fishery, 16.24 to 19.90 in mining, 0.76 to 0.70 in the manufacturing sector and 2.79 to 4.77 percent in the construction sector. Generally speaking, on the average the dependency on forestry during the period 1963-1966 increased from 5.92 percent to 8.03 percent. Accordingly, it may easily be known that the primary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries increased from 16, 109 million won in 1963 to 48, 842 million won in 1966. B. The forest products are supplied to other industries as their raw materials. The products are processed further into higher quality products. thus indirectly increasing the value of the forest products. The ratio of the increased value added or the secondary dependency on forestry for 1963 and 1966 showed an increase or decrease, from 5.98 percent to 7.87 percent in agriculture, 9.06 to 5.74 in fishery, 13.56 to 15.81 in mining, 0.68 to 0.61 in the manufacturing sector and 2.71 to 4.54 in the construction sector. The average ratio in this connection increased from 4.69 percent to 5.60 percent. In the meantime, the secondary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries rose from 12,779 million Wall in 1963 to 34,084 million won in 1966. C. The dependency of tertiary industries on forestry showed very minor ratios of 0.46 percent and 0.04 percent in 1963 and 1966 respectively. The forestry output induced by tertiary industry also decreased from 685 million won to 123 million won during the same period. D. Generally speaking, the ratio of dependency on forestry increased from 17.68 percent in 1963 to 24.28 percent in 1966 in primary industries, from 4.69 percent to 5.70 percent in secondary industries, while, as mentioned above, the ratio in the case of tertiary industry decreased from 0.46 to 0.04 percent during the period 1963-66. The mining industry reveals the heaviest rate of dependency on forestry with 29.80 percent in 1963 and 35.71 percent in 1966. As it result, the direct forestry income, valued at 8,172 million won in 1963, shot up to 22,724 million won in 1966. Its composition ratio lo the national income rose from 1.9 percent in 1963 to 2.3 per cent in 1966. If the induced outcome is taken into account, the total forestry production which was estimated at 37,744 million won in 1963 picked up to 105,773 million won in 1966, about 4.5 times its direct income. It is further noted that the ratio of the gross forestry product to the gross national product. rose significantly from 8.8 percent in 1963 to 10.7 percent in 1966. E. In computing the above mentioned ratio not taken into consideration were such intangible, indirect effects as the drought and flood prevention, check of soil run-off, watershed and land conservation, improvement of the people's recreational and emotional living, and maintenance and increase in the national health and sanitation. F. In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that the forestry sector exercices an important effect upon the national economy and that the effect of induced forestry output is greater than its direct income.

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Development of the Regulatory Impact Analysis Framework for the Convergence Industry: Case Study on Regulatory Issues by Emerging Industry (융합산업 규제영향분석 프레임워크 개발: 신산업 분야별 규제이슈 사례 연구)

  • Song, Hye-Lim;Seo, Bong-Goon;Cho, Sung-Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.199-230
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    • 2021
  • Innovative new products and services are being launched through the convergence between heterogeneous industries, and social interest and investment in convergence industries such as AI, big data-based future cars, and robots are continuously increasing. However, in the process of commercialization of convergence new products and services, there are many cases where they do not conform to the existing regulatory and legal system, which causes many difficulties in companies launching their products and services into the market. In response to these industrial changes, the current government is promoting the improvement of existing regulatory mechanisms applied to the relevant industry along with the expansion of investment in new industries. This study, in these convergence industry trends, aimed to analysis the existing regulatory system that is an obstacle to market entry of innovative new products and services in order to preemptively predict regulatory issues that will arise in emerging industries. In addition, it was intended to establish a regulatory impact analysis system to evaluate adequacy and prepare improvement measures. The flow of this study is divided into three parts. In the first part, previous studies on regulatory impact analysis and evaluation systems are investigated. This was used as basic data for the development direction of the regulatory impact framework, indicators and items. In the second regulatory impact analysis framework development part, indicators and items are developed based on the previously investigated data, and these are applied to each stage of the framework. In the last part, a case study was presented to solve the regulatory issues faced by actual companies by applying the developed regulatory impact analysis framework. The case study included the autonomous/electric vehicle industry and the Internet of Things (IoT) industry, because it is one of the emerging industries that the Korean government is most interested in recently, and is judged to be most relevant to the realization of an intelligent information society. Specifically, the regulatory impact analysis framework proposed in this study consists of a total of five steps. The first step is to identify the industrial size of the target products and services, related policies, and regulatory issues. In the second stage, regulatory issues are discovered through review of regulatory improvement items for each stage of commercialization (planning, production, commercialization). In the next step, factors related to regulatory compliance costs are derived and costs incurred for existing regulatory compliance are calculated. In the fourth stage, an alternative is prepared by gathering opinions of the relevant industry and experts in the field, and the necessity, validity, and adequacy of the alternative are reviewed. Finally, in the final stage, the adopted alternatives are formulated so that they can be applied to the legislation, and the alternatives are reviewed by legal experts. The implications of this study are summarized as follows. From a theoretical point of view, it is meaningful in that it clearly presents a series of procedures for regulatory impact analysis as a framework. Although previous studies mainly discussed the importance and necessity of regulatory impact analysis, this study presented a systematic framework in consideration of the various factors required for regulatory impact analysis suggested by prior studies. From a practical point of view, this study has significance in that it was applied to actual regulatory issues based on the regulatory impact analysis framework proposed above. The results of this study show that proposals related to regulatory issues were submitted to government departments and finally the current law was revised, suggesting that the framework proposed in this study can be an effective way to resolve regulatory issues. It is expected that the regulatory impact analysis framework proposed in this study will be a meaningful guideline for technology policy researchers and policy makers in the future.

Evaluation Method for the Creativity Elements and Emotional design (창의성요소와 감성디자인의 평가방법 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Pil;Hong, Jung-Pyo
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.259-268
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    • 2010
  • This modern society is said to be more typical of an emotional society. In such a society, emotional design adds value to products, hence bringing about value-enhanced products. Despite many claims of little substance about emotional design, there have been only a few researches that have identified what criteria to be applied to distinguish between emotional products and generic products or even have clearly defined what emotional products are. This leads to a clear need for providing more definite criteria for defining and classifying design elements useful and available for users. To fill the gap, the purpose of this study is, first, to explore the relationship between evaluation elements for creative design and emotional design, and, based on that, identify some of the most importantly valued elements, and secondly, to examine how the images importantly used for expression relate to creativity evaluation elements according to classified types of design. In this study, chosen products were presented to selected users so that they can choose what they think possesses emotional design elements. Then the products so chosen were classified according to design type for examination of their respective relationship with creativity evaluation elements. In addition, the identification was performed of perceived design images about the selected products and the relationship between those images and creativity evaluation elements. This study is expected to provide a chance to be aware of the fact that essential creativity evaluation elements can vary depending on changing times, environments, and users, and as well, to offer an insight into what images design should be possessive of for it to be preferred by consumers.

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The Effects of Products Characteristics, Consumers Characteristics on Products Attitudes and Purchasing Intention of Import Agency Shopping Malls -Focused on the Moderating Effect of Perceived Risk- (수입대행쇼핑몰의 제품 특성과 소비자 특성이 제품태도 및 구매의도에 미치는 영향 -지각된 위험의 조절효과를 중심으로-)

  • Song, Sun-Yok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.340-348
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    • 2016
  • This study, through a review of advanced research, first, examined the attitudes to products traded in import agency shopping malls and the characteristic variables(product characteristic, customer characteristic) that influence the purchasing intention to understand influencing relationship. Second, the role of adjustment in the relationship between the attitude to the products and the purchasing intention was examined by putting the perceived risk to the moderating variables. Third, efficient controllable basic data in the characteristic variables capable of influencing the management of and import agency shopping mall based on the implications was obtained from the above research result. The 126 responses collected from a questionnaire were analyzed using the SPSS 23.0 statistics package, and the analysis result can be summarized as follows. First, the main cause that influences the attitude of treated products in an import agency shopping mall is the country of origin, national image, innovativeness and price perception, not the brand image. Second, the attitude of the products influences the purchasing intention of the import agency shopping mall. Third, the perceived risk partially plays a role as a moderating variable in the relationship between the attitude of products and the purchasing intention.

A study on the Improvement of Facility-Wide Quality Assurance Technique for Quality Management of Military Product (군수품 품질경영 효율화를 위한 사업장 단위 품질 보증 개선 방안 연구)

  • Kang, In-Myun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.613-619
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the development and production of weapons systems for military products have been increasing. Therefore, there is a need for an efficient quality control method suitable for limited resources and manpower for the manufactured military products. Military munitions are characteristically developed and produced as business contract units. In addition, business and quality control are done by contract. For this reason, many contracts are concluded in one producer and similar products are often produced. Business and quality control also require extensive manpower and effort. If a company produces several similar products, a more efficient management approach is required. This study therefore examines these problems in an attempt to present solutions by analyzing the types of munitions contracts and the characteristics of products produced by one company. Based on the results, a method is proposed to manage the contract-specific management methods by company, that is, by business site. The method is applied to an engine manufacturing company and the integrated management plan is verified and its effectiveness confirmed. The effect of facility-wide method was a reduction of QA manpower and an improvement in maintaining quality assurance and stability through management of the workforce and contract grouping method.

Practice of industrial strain improvement (제 1차 한.중 생명공학 심포지움)

  • Lei, Zhao-zu
    • The Microorganisms and Industry
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.34-41
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    • 1993
  • Industrial strain improvement is concerned with developing or modifying microorganisms used in production of commercially important fermentation products. The aim is to reduce the production cost by improving productivity of a strain and manipulating specific characteristics such as the ability to utilize cheaper raw materials or resist bacteriophages. The traditional empirical approach to strain improvement is mutation combined with selection and breeding techniques. It is still used by us to improve the productivity of organisms in amino acids, organic acids and enzymes production. The breeding of high L-lysine-producing strain Au112 is one of the outstanding examples of this approach. It is a homoserine auxotroph with AEC, TA double metabolic analogue resistant markers. The yield reaches 100 g/l. Besides, the citric acid-producing organism Aspergillus niger, Co827, its productivity reaches the advanced level in the world, is also the result of a series mutations especially with $^60Co{\gamma}$-radiation. The thermostable .alpha.-amylase producing strain A 4041 is the third example. By combining physical and chemical mutations, the strain A 4041 becomes an asporogenous, catabolite derepressed mutant with rifamycin resistant and methionine, arginine auxotroph markers. The .alpha.-amylase activity reaches 200 units/ml. The fourth successful example of mutation in strain improvement is the glucoamylase-producing strain Aspergillus niger SP56, its enzyme activity is 20,000 units/ml, 4 times of that of the parental strain UV-11. Recently, recombinant DNA approach provides a worthwhile alternative strategy to industrial strain improvement. This technique had been used by us to increase the thermostable .alpha.-amylase production and on some genetic researches.

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Mathematical Model for Revenue Management with Overbooking and Costly Price Adjustment for Hotel Industries

  • Masruroh, Nur Aini;Mulyani, Yun Prihantina
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 2013
  • Revenue management (RM) has been widely used to model products characterized as perishable. Classical RM model assumed that price is the sole factor in the model. Thus price adjustment becomes a crucial and costly factor in business. In this paper, an optimal pricing model is developed based on minimization of soft customer cost, one kind of price adjustment cost and is solved by Lagrange multiplier method. It is formed by expected discounted revenue/bid price integrating quantity-based RM and pricing-based RM. Quantity-based RM consists of two capacity models, namely, booking limit and overbooking. Booking limit, built by assuming uncertain customer arrival, decides the optimal capacity allocation for two market segments. Overbooking determines the level of accepted order exceeding capacity to anticipate probability of cancellation. Furthermore, pricing-based RM models occupancy/demand rate influenced by internal and competitor price changes. In this paper, a mathematical model based on game theoretic approach is developed for two conditions of deterministic and stochastic demand. Based on the equilibrium point, the best strategy for both hotels can be determined.

Property of the Spheroidized Zr Powder by Radio Frequency Plasma Treatment (RF 플라즈마 처리법에 기반한 기계적 밀링된 Zr 분말의 구형화에 따른 특성 변화)

  • Lee, Yukyeong;Choi, Mi-Sun;Park, Eon Byeong;Oh, Jeong Seok;Nam, Taehyun;Kim, Jung Gi
    • Journal of Powder Materials
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.97-102
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    • 2021
  • Powder quality, including high flowability and spherical shape, determines the properties of additively manufactured products. Therefore, the cheap production of high-quality powders is critical in additive manufacturing. Radio frequency plasma treatment is an effective method to fabricate spherical powders by melting the surface of irregularly shaped powders; in the present work, mechanically milled Zr powders are spheroidized by radio frequency plasma treatment and their properties are compared with those of commercial Zircaloy-2 alloy powder. Spherical Zr particles are successfully fabricated by plasma treatment, although their flowability and impurity contents are poorer than those of the commercial Zircaloy-2 alloy powder. This result shows that radio-frequency plasma treatment with mechanically milled powders requires further research and development for manufacturing low-cost powders for additive manufacturing.

Development of Value-Added Products Using Seaweeds (해조류 가공식품 및 부산물을 이용한 제품 개발)

  • Park, Yang-Kyun;Kang, Seong-Gook;Jung, Soon-Teck;Kim, Dong-Han;Kim, Seon-Jae;Pak, Jae-In;Kim, Chang-Hyeug;Rhim, Jong-Whan;Kim, Jung-Mook
    • Journal of Marine Bioscience and Biotechnology
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2007
  • There are produced more than 600,000 tons of seaweeds every year along the coast of the Korea. Jeonnam province, south-west coast area, of Korea is producing 93% of total amounts of seaweeds. The laver, sea mustard, and tangleweed maintain stability in the output and has been exported as a simple product processing through drying or salting. It was evaluated the low value-added products and limited the expansion for the consumption of seaweeds. The seaweeds contains 40-60% carbohydrate and structurally different compared with land plant. The dietary fiber from seaweeds has been known the function of facilitating the bowl movement, excretion the heavy metal in the body, lowering the blood cholesterol level, anti-coagulant of blood, and anticancer. Especially, brown algae including sea mustard, seaweed fusiforme, and tangleweed contains alginic acid, laminarin, mannitol, fucoidan which are lowering the blood cholesterol level, lowering blood pressure, and fusion of blood clot. Agar-agar, carrageenan, and porphyran compound in red algae are known to antimutagenicity and anticoagulant function. In spite of potential of seaweed as a main bio-resource, there are lack of research to facilitate the consumption with its functional properties and consumers are unsatisfied with simple processing products. Also, the seaweed by-product dump into the sea and cause pollution of the seawater. Therefore, there are needed the scheme to promote the consumption of seaweeds. The development of value-added products, finding functional properties from seaweeds, development the functional feed for animal using seaweed by-products, and utilization of unused algae for food or other industrial uses will increase fisherman's income as well as serve as an aid for the people health due to its functional properties. Using by-product of seaweed and unexploited seaweed are needed to development of bio-degradable food packaging material and functional feed for animal.

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