• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2022

Purpose: This study aims to investigate whether AIS data can be used as a supporting indicator or as an initial signal to describe Indonesia's export-import conditions in real-time. Research design, data, and methodology: This study performs several stages of data selection to obtain indicators from AIS that truly reflect export-import activities in Indonesia. Also, investigate the potential of AIS indicators in producing forecasts of the value and volume of Indonesian export-import using conventional statistical methods and machine learning techniques. Results: The six preprocessing stages defined in this study filtered AIS data from 661.8 million messages to 73.5 million messages. Seven predictors were formed from the selected AIS data. The AIS indicator can be used to provide an initial signal about Indonesia's import-export activities. Each export or import activity has its own predictor. Conventional statistical methods and machine learning techniques have the same ability both in forecasting Indonesia's exports and imports. Conclusions: Big data AIS can be used as a supporting indicator as a signal of the condition of export-import values in Indonesia. The right method of building indicators can make the data valuable for the performance of the forecasting model.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.17-27
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• 2024

Purpose: The renminbi (RMB) has appreciated alongside the elevation of China's economic status, leading to increased exchange rate volatility. Moreover, China's medical industry saw a surge in import and export trade volume, with trade related to epidemic prevention and control in the medical sector significantly increasing its share. The medical device trade, in particular, occupies a substantial portion of this trade. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the import and export value of medical devices in the medical industry as a case study to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export trade of the medical industry during the pandemic. Additionally, it investigates whether the import and export trade of the medical industry can be a contributing factor to the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Results: Through an empirical study on the import and export values of medical devices in the medical industry over the past three years, as well as the RMB exchange rate, this paper establishes a VAR model and conducts a series of tests including stationarity tests and cointegration tests. Conclusions: The conclusion is that fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have a long-term impact on China's medical industry's import and export trade.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.53 no.1
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• pp.55-72
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• 2022

The domestic catch of squid is decreasing every year. Import volume is increasing to replace these domestic products. Import volume is expected to increase in the future, so it is necessary to study import substitution. Therefore, in this study, after selecting frozen squid, which accounts for the majority of imported squid, as the target fish species, China, Chile and Peru, which account for the majority of frozen squid imports, will be selected as the target countries for analysis. Then, the demand function of squid is estimated using the Rotterdam model, the inverse Rotterdam model, AIDS and inverse AIDS, which are the simultaneous equation demand types, and then elasticity is derived. After that, these models are compared in terms of significance, theoretical fit and practical fit.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.19-28
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• 2024

Purpose: In the era of global economic integration, China's doors of openness have widened, leading to increasingly frequent economic and trade exchanges between countries. Exchange rates, as a crucial economic lever for regulating foreign markets, play a vital role in the balanced development of a nation's international trade. Therefore, the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign trade has garnered widespread attention. Research design, data and methodology: This study utilizes import and export trade data between China and five ASEAN countries from 1998 to 2019. It employs regression analysis to examine the specific impact of the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi on China's import and export trade with these ASEAN nations. Results: The empirical analysis yields the following conclusions: Firstly, the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi exhibits a long-term stable relationship with China's import and export trade with the five ASEAN countries. Renminbi appreciation contributes to an increase in export trade volume but is detrimental to import trade. While this conclusion may deviate from classical trade theories, it aligns with the practical realities of China's foreign trade. Secondly, the coefficients before Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all display positive values, indicating that the growth of total economic demand has a stimulating effect on China's import and export trade.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2009

This study predicted Port trade volume by considering Korea's export to China and import Com China separately using ARIMA model (Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model). We predicted monthly Port trade volumes for 27 months from October 2008 to December 2010 using monthly data from September 2008 to January 2001 using monthly data. As a result of prediction, we found that the export volume decreased in January, February, August and September while the import volume decreased in February, March, August and September. As the decrease period was clearly differentiated, it was possible to predict export and import volumes. Therefore, it is believed that the results of this study will generate useful basic data for policy makers or those working for export and import enterprises when they set up policies and management plans. And to improve competitive power of Port trade, this study suggests privatization of Port, improvement of information capability, improvement of competitive power of Port management companies, support for Port distribution companies, plans for active encouragement of transshipment, and management of added value creation policy.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.239-245
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• 2023

This study examined the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput in Korea. With a high trade-to-GDP ratio, Korea has an open economy. The vast majority of its exports and imports are serviced by maritime transport. Therefore, cargo volume of Korean seaports is highly likely to be affected by changes in global economy resulting from escalation in geopolitical risk. In this regard, this study investigated the relationship between geopolitical risk and port throughput in Korea during the period of 1995-2022. Results indicated that the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput was not statistically significant. However, the relationship varied by export, import, and ports. Especially, it was revealed that cargo volume of Korean ports was negatively associated with the level of geopolitical risk. In addition, it was also found that geopolitical risk had a negative impact on the unit price of Korean import..

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.293-309
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• 2022

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the import and export volume of Jeollabuk-do to establish a plan to activiation Saemangeum New Port. To this end, this study utilized the HHI(Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), LQ(Location Quotient) analysis using the annual data set from the Korea Trade Statistics Promotion Institution between 2015 to 2020. As a result, it has been confirmed that the degree of export volume concentration (HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)) in Jeollabuk-do has been increasing over the past 5 years. According to results of LQ(Location Quotient) analysis, Brazil had the highest index in the case of exporting countries, and Meat, edible meat offal (HS 2) had the highest index in the case of export items. This paper is meaningful in analyzing the export structure using import and export volumes and proposing a plan to improve the competitiveness of Saemangeum New Port.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.8
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• pp.133-152
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of commodity trade in Korea and China and to examine the implications of China's GVC shift from export to domestic market on its impact on Korea's trade. Design/methodology - This study selected 30 major trading partner countries. The dependent variable is the trade volume, and the independent variables are general economic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, distance, and FTA. Findings - The trade pattern of Korea's commodities shows that GDP has a positive relationship with trade, import, and export. Distance has a significant negative relationship with total trade, import, and export. FTA is significant for import but it is not significant for total trade and export. The trade pattern of China's commodities shows that GDP has a significant positive relationship with total trade, import, and export. Distance has a negative relationship with trade, import, and export. GDP per capita is not significant for total trade and import, but it is significant for export. FTA is significant for total trade and export, but it is not significant for import. Originality/value - Existing papers were studied mainly in certain industrial sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, automobile industry and steel industry. This paper attempts to collects vast amounts of data about the 30 countries of Korea and China respectively and analyzes by Random Effect Model dividing the goods (0 to 9) in units of STIC (Rev. 4). The major contribution is that the decision factors affecting commodity trade can be analyzed in SITC units (0-9) to obtain analysis results that are subdivided by product group and organized by product.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.37
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• pp.161-185
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• 2008

In 2006, the share of fisheries distribution in Busan amounted to 1.9 million ton, which was 41 percent of the whole country. In details, coastal fishery 334 thousand ton(14% of the whole country), deep sea fishery 452 thousand ton(82%), import fishery 964 thousand ton(70%), export fishery 157 thousand ton(43%) were distributed in Busan region, respectively. According to distribution share, import(50%), deep sea fishery(24%), coastal fishery(18%), export(8%) are main category of fisheries distribution in Busan. After the institutional changes in 1997, that is, from monopoly to the competitive systems are implemented, the share of sales volume through a home trust market decreased gradually since 2000. Especially, the share of direct sales in farming fisheries sector amounted to 73.8 percent of total production volume, 80.7 percent of production value in 2005. Furthermore, the share of fisheries sale through e-commerce is increasing owing to the growth of IT and competitive price of its products. and the sale share of large discount store is also on the 10% more increase. Hereafter these structure changes of fisheries distribution in Busan will be more intensified. Therefore, after reflecting the change in distribution policy of Busan Fisheries, the directions of distribution policy should be established, as follows. $\cdot$ Distribution policy to prepare for increasing of non-trust market sales $\cdot$ Fisheries distribution policy to prepare for increasing of direct transaction like e-commerce $\cdot$ Distribution policy to prepare for increasing of sales ratio in large discount store $\cdot$ Distribution policy for making up sound purchasing circumstance of Fisheries $\cdot$ Distribution policy for reducing the fisheries distribution cost $\cdot$ Distribution policy to prepare for increasing of direct carrying the deep sea fisheries and import fisheries to Seoul and $Inch'{\breve{o}}n$ section $\cdot$ Distribution policy for implementing the information system for managing fisheries transaction $\cdot$ Distribution policy for advancing the export & import management of fisheries $\cdot$ Distribution policy for establishing transaction principle reflecting the peculiarity in fishery distribution(to enacting independent fishery law)

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.7
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• pp.29-37
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• 2023

Due to climate change, interest in crop production and distribution is increasing, and attempts are being made to use bigdata and AI to predict production volume and control shipments and distribution stages. Prediction of agricultural product imports not only affects prices, but also controls shipments of farms and distributions of distribution companies, so it is important information for establishing marketing strategies. In this paper, we create an artificial intelligence prediction model that predicts the future import volume based on the wholesale market melon import volume data disclosed by the agricultural statistics information system and evaluate its accuracy. We create prediction models using three models: the Neural Prophet technique, the Ensembled Neural Prophet model, and the GRU model. As a result of evaluating the performance of the model by comparing two major indicators, MAE and RMSE, the Ensembled Neural Prophet model predicted the most accurately, and the GRU model also showed similar performance to the ensemble model. The model developed in this study is published on the web and used in the field for 1 year and 6 months, and is used to predict melon production in the near future and to establish marketing and distribution strategies.