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Optimum Population in Korea : An Economic Perspective (한국의 적정인구: 경제학적 관점)

  • Koo, Sung-Yeal
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2005
  • The optimum population of a society or country can be defined as 'the population growth path that maximizes the welfare level of the society over the whole generations of both the present and the future, under the paths allowed by its endowments of production factors such as technology, capital and labor'. Thus, the optimum size or growth rate of population depends on: (i) the social welfare function, (ii) the production function, and (iii)demographic economic interrelationship which defines how the national income is disposed into consumption(birth and education of children included) and savings on the one hand and how the demographic and economic change induced thereby, in turn, affect production capacities on the other. The optimum population growth path can, then, be derived in the process of dynamic optimization of (i) under the constraints of (ii) and (iii), which will give us the optimum population growth rate defined as a function of parameters thereof. This paper estimates the optimum population growth rate of Korea by: specifying (i), (ii), and (iii) based on the recent development of economic theories, solving the dynamic optimization problem and inserting empirical estimates in Korea as the parametric values. The result shows that the optimum path of population growth in Korea is around TFR=1.81, which is affected most sensitively, in terms of the size of the partial elasticity around the optimum path, by the cost of children, share of capital income, consumption rate, time preference, population elasticity of utility function, etc. According to a survey implemented as a follow up study, there are quite a significant variations in the perceived cost of children, time preference rate, population elasticity of utility across different socio-economic classes in Korea, which implied that, compared to their counterparts, older generation and more highly educated classes prefer higher growth path for the population of Korea.

Formative Characteristics of Water Space and Scenic Spot of Baegun-dong Wonlim in Gangjin Aaun Village (강진 안운마을 백운동원림의 승경과 수공간의 조영 특성)

  • Park, Yool-Jin;Kim, Hong-Gyun;Rho, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Hwa-Ok;Goh, Yea-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2011
  • This study is aiming to acquire data for enhancing genuineness of restoration through reviewing external and internal scenery of Baegun-dong Wonlim such as Baegun-dong 8 Objects of Scenery(pines, bamboos, chrysanthemum, orchid, maehwa blossom, magnolia, fiddle and crane) and 12 Scenic Spots and reviewing internal and external scenery of Baegun-dong Wonlim such as views and scenery for plantation. For Baegun-dong 8 Young which sang songs about scenic spots of Baegun-dong Wonlim it seemed that its head words were formed through borrowing rhyming words from caption of Baegun-dong Yuseogi(白雲洞幽棲記). Accordingly it seemed these scenery secured its status of Wonlim from the beginning. Particularly the words of fiddle and crane in 琴棋書畵(Geumgisuhha) implied that playing Komungo and brushwriting were firmly rooted as romantic pursuits of classical scholars of that time. In consideration of distance upto Okpanbong which is one of 12 scenic spots of Baegun-dong radius of outer circumference is estimated to be around 1.6km. From Okgpanbong, the epicenter, Sandagyeong, Baegokmae, Hongokpok and Pungdan etc. correspond to transitional space. And inner scenery was formed with hub of thatched cottages and bowers surrounded with chrysanthemums, poenies, rhododendron, Phyllostachys bambusoides, pines and upper and lower water paths. Thus it seemed there was scenic structure of centrifugal nature as well as of multiplicity. Forms of majority of water paths with residual structure found in the country have streamlined forms on the other hand Baegun-dong water paths have straight line which almost dominate inner gardens in terms of scale and forms thus revealing its extraordinary idea and design. In order to promote genuine restoration of Baegun-dong Wonlim it will be necessary to have consideration from standpoint of managing perspective to assure presentation of gradual scenery with elements of scenic objects for outer view among 12 Scenic Spots.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

Haewon-sangsaeng Thought for the Future of Humanity and World (인간과 세계의 미래에 관한 해원상생사상 연구)

  • Bae, Kyu-han
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.30
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    • pp.1-57
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    • 2018
  • There are three purposes to this study: first, to understand comprehensively the meaning of Haewon-sangsaeng (Resolution of Grievances for Mutual Beneficence) Thought, which can be taken as representative thought regarding peace in Korean new religions. Next, Haewon-sangsaeng Thought and the works for Haewon (resolving grievances) will be examined as principles and practical mechanisms for building the paradise of the Later World and understanding the structure of this system of thought. Lastly, logical inferences will be made regarding the future of humanity and the world through the ideological characteristics implied by Haewon-sangsaeng Thought. Haewon-sangsaeng Thought contains the complicated concepts of Haewon and Sangsaeng. Haewon is the resolution of the enmity and grievances that have accumulated in the realms of humanity and deities. Sangsaeng indicates the action of mutually benefiting one another or a state wherein people live in prosperity and peace. In Daesoon Jinrihoe, the concept of Haewon-sangsaeng is expressed explicitly and has broad applications. It can be expanded for the global peace and the harmony of all humanity. As the result of an integrated analysis of previous studies, it can be stated that Haewon-sangsaeng has values and meanings in terms of principles, laws, ethics, and ideology all of which are commonly connected to Injon (Human Nobility), Sangsaeng, peace, harmony, the Later World, and paradise. This indicates that its valuable for the future of humanity and world is deeper and wider than its mere etymological meaning. The common factor among paired ideas such as human nobility and Sangsaeng, peace and harmony, and Later World and paradise is the realization of humanity's greatest wish. This is the reason why the value and meaning of Haewon-sangsaeng can be expanded globally. The works of Haewon were a religious act of Kang Jeungsan who resolved the grievances of the Former World which was under the rule of mutual conflict and built a Later World that will operate according to mutual beneficence. Therefore, the principle of Haewon-sangsaeng has a motivative power, through the Reordering Works of the Universe, which can transform the future of humanity and the world. In this study, it can be inferred that as Haewon-sangsaeng 'fulfills human desires' and forms a 'harmonious relations of Sangsaeng' between humans and world, humans will be transformed into Injon (Human Nobility) while the world turns into a paradise, and the future turns into period of peace. Therefore, Haewon-sangsaeng Thought works as a principle that changes society, the world, and the universe. The social actualization of Haewon-sangsaeng is tantamount to bringing the future of Injon, paradise, and peace into objective reality. Previous studies on Haewon-sangsaeng Thought had been carried out under difficult circumstances by a small number of scholars. For all the above reasons, I anticipate that there will be more and more studies made on the topic of Haewon-sangsaeng Thought, which seeks the realization of Haewon (the Resolution of Grievances), Sangsaeng (Mutual Beneficence), human nobility, paradise, and peace. I hope it will emerge as a main subject in global religious thought.

Confucian View of Self-realization and Context of Life: With a focus on Viewpoint of Confucius and Mencius (유교의 자아실현과 삶의 맥락 - 공자와 맹자의 시선을 중심으로 -)

  • Shin, Chang Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.29
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    • pp.153-178
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this research was to examine the traditional Confucian view of self-realization in East Asia and the meaning of life implied therein. The researcher closely reviewed the phase of self-realization of both Confucius and Mencius who are central in Confucianism, especially in the primordial Confucianism, and after investigating maturity of personality as well as educational characteristics thereof, the researcher tried to elicit its modern significance. In Analects, Confucius who is the founder of Confucianism mentioned about 'the pleasure of studying and practicing what he has learned'(學而時習 "Hagisiseup" in Korean), since after, his past was then just the process of self-realization that lasted throughout life. That is, the six phases of self-realization, to wit, 'bending on learning(志學, "Jihak")-'standing firm'(而立, "Irip")-'having no doubts'(不惑, "Bulhok")-'knowing the decrees of Heaven'(知天命, "Jicheonmyeong")-'ear being obedient organ for the reception of truth' (耳順, "Isun")-'able to follow what my heart desires without transgressing what is right'(從心, "Jongsim"), are lying hidden and undeveloped during lifetime, and, at the same time, these phases illustrate the state of enlightenment of life in an in-depth manner. By showing the process of living which is being sublimated in respect of quality, and by going through important process of self-innovation up to six times during lifetime, Confucius edifies us the activity of complete self-realization as well as the importance of education and learning. Meanwhile, these are connected to Mencius in a similar pattern, and strong influence of the characteristics of the learning of the mind and heart( 心學, "Simhak") based on his philosophy permeates the self-actualization phase of Mencius. Mencius' self-actualization phase is expressed in terms of six stages, viz., Person of Goodness(善人, "Seonin")-Trustworthy Person(信人, "Sinin")-Person of Beauty(美人, "Miin")-Great Person(大人, "Daein")-Sage(聖人, "Seongin")-Divine Person(神人, "Sinin"), and these six phases of self-actualization process are educational and learning model for people who dream actualization of perfect personality during their lifetime. Confucian and Mencian view of self-realization congruent with self-discipline internally, and it also reveals a stereotype of human externally. These are a process of performing organic ideals in order for cultivating oneself and regulating others(修己治人, pronounced 'sugichiin' in Korean) which has been pursued by Confucianism. Briefly, these self-realization phases are the arts of living that will lay foundation for "Being Born Human, pronounced Saramim' in Korean" and for becoming "Fully Human, 'Sarmadoem'" and finally for "Human Feelingness, 'Saramdaum'

Structure of Export Competition between Asian NIEs and Japan in the U.S. Import Market and Exchange Rate Effects (한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로)

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 1990
  • This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

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