• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

Korea is expected to become a super-aged society by 2050. Given an aging population and the increasing pressure for the early retirement, a sufficient social safety net for elderly population becomes important. The Korean government introduced public reverse mortgage program in 2007, which is a product for aging seniors and the elderly, The number of reverse mortgage subscribers has also steadily grown. The demand continues to grow, but the reverse mortgage over a long period of time is a highly uncertain and risky product in the position of guarantee or lending institution. Thus, suitable demand prediction of the reverse mortgage subscribers is necessary for stable and sustainable operation. This study uses a Bass diffusion model to forecast the long-term demand for reverse mortgage and provides insight into reverse mortgage by forecasting demand for stability and substantiality of the loan product. We represent the projections of new subscribers on the basis of the data obtained from Korea Housing Finance Corporation. Results show that potential market size of Korean reverse mortgage reaches approximately 760,000-1,160,000 households by 2020. We validate the results by comparing the estimate of the cumulative number of subscribers with that found in literature.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.101-112
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• 2010

최근, 미국에서 발생한 주택담보대출시장 비우량대출 부실로 인한 세계 금융위기에 따라, 우리나라 주택시장 또한 침체를 겪고 있다. 이에 대한 대응으로 정부는 주택 수요 활성화를 위한 다양한 규제 완화 정책을 시도 하고 있다. 특히, 주택담보대출비율(LTV) 및 총부채상환비율(DTI) 와 같은 주택담보대출 기준의 완화를 통해 주택수요 및 주택 거래의 활성화를 기대하고 있으며, 2차 주택담보대출시장을 활성화하여 주택 수요의 지속적인 발생을 유도하고자 한다. 그러나 이러한 정책은 비우량 대출 부실로 시작된 세계 금융위기에 역행하는 시도가 될 수 있다. 이러한 상황에서, 시장에 대한 예측은 대부분 단편적인 시각으로 이루어지고 있어, 향후 주택시장의 변화에 대한 종합적이고 체계적인 예측 방법론에 대한 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는, 주택시장 및 주택담보대출시장을 구성하는 기본 요소를 바탕으로 통합된 관점의 주택시장 시스템다이내믹스 연구 모형을 작성한다. 또한, 연구 모형을 통해 정부의 주택담보대출 규제완화가 시장 참여자에 미치는 영향을 알아본다. 이는 수요 자극을 통해 침체된 주택시장의 주택거래 활성화 효과를 기대하고 있으나, 제 2 주택담보대출 시장의 형성 및 부실 파생상품 생성 가능성을 높일 위험을 갖고 있다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제12권7호
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• pp.197-203
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• 2014

본 논문은 주택연금과 주택담보대출을 비교하면서 부동산금융 활성화 방안을 분석하였다. 구체적으로는 이론적 고찰과 선행연구를 토대로 한 설문을 통해 조사를 실시한 후 인식을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 주택연금 활성화를 위해서는 모든 부동산으로 대상 확대, 세제혜택 다양화, 1가구 1주택 제한 폐지를, 주택담보대출 활성화를 위해서는 금리유형의 다양화, 상환방법의 확대, 15년 세제혜택 조건 완화, 저소득가구에 대한 혜택 등을 우선적인 방안으로 인식했다. 본 연구는 인식분석 결과를 통해 이상의 합리적인 개선점과 활성화 방안을 제시함으로써 국민복지 제도가 가미된 선진금융 정책 실현을 위한 기초자료1)를 제공하고 국민주거안정에 기여함에 그 의의를 가진다.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.31-39
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• 2012

This study has analyzed the effect of the housing affordability improvement of the residents in the metropolitan areas, applying Transit Supportive Home Loan (TSHL) which extends the loan amount according to the transportation cost saving based on Location Efficiency Mortgage (LEM) System in the USA. The previous studies focused on introducing LEM system to Korea, whereas this study has analyzed TSHL effect for the first time, taking into account the situation in Korea. For analysis, The Transportation Savings (TS) is calculated and Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is drawn by applying increased TS and DTI (Debt to Income), so the improvements of housing purchasing ability is examined by HAI's improvement. As a result, transit commute 1 (having own car) and transit commute 2 (without having own cars) respectively produce the TS of monthly average 36 thousand won and 110 thousand won in comparison with car using commute. Each additional loan (TSHL) amounts to 16.57 million won and 54.07 million won. As the distance is farther and the house price cheaper, the improvement of HAI is more outstanding. City hall area showed the highest improvements of HAI by 9.3% (transit commute 1) and 21.9% (transit commute 2) increase, in comparison with car using commute.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.1-32
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• 2021

With CB data in South Korea, this study examines whether the credit risk of borrowers changes when the regulation on bank mortgage supply is relaxed. We analyze the effect of deregulation on LTV and DTI limits in the Seoul-metropolitan area in August 2014 with a difference-in-difference approach. We find that the probability of delinquency is lower in the Seoul metropolitan area after the deregulation than in other urban areas. The effect is noticeable among low-income and low-credit borrowers. We also find that borrowers change their debt structure to reduce the interest costs utilizing their improved access to bank mortgages. The findings suggest the necessity to consider the burden of the high interest costs of unsecured loans for debtors with low incomes and low credit ratings in designing housing finance regulations.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.1-34
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 국내 최초로 총 2,210만명의 개인신용 전수미시자료에 기초하여 차주별 특성 및 금융업권별로 부채상환능력을 비교 분석하고, 거시경제 충격에 따른 금융권역별 총부채상환비율(DTI)과 불량률의 변화, 차환위험 분석 등을 통해 가계부채의 건전성을 평가하였다. 실증분석 결과, 차주별로는 저소득 근로자와 고소득 자영업자의 부채상환부담이 상대적으로 높고, 금융업권별로는 캐피탈 및 카드사의 저소득 차주군, 상호저축은행의 고소득 차주군, 은행과 제2금융권 금융회사로부터 복수의 부채를 보유한 차주군의 부채상환능력이 특히 취약한 것으로 분석되었다. 시나리오 분석 결과, 향후 연간 금리 상승폭이 3%p, 소득감소율이 5% 수준 이내인 경우 가계의 부채상환부담 및 불량률 상승효과는 금융권이 현재의 자기자본으로 충분히 흡수할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 세부 권역별로는 캐피탈, 카드사, 상호저축은행 등 이미 차주의 DTI가 높은 제2금융권을 중심으로 가계부채의 부실화 가능성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 최근 가계부채 증가가 고소득층의 주택담보대출을 중심으로 이루어져서 상대적으로 안전하다는 견해가 있으나 고소득 차주군, 특히 자영업 고소득 차주군의 DTI 및 고위험군 비중이 높게 나타나, 향후 DTI 규제, 금리 상승 등으로 만기도래하는 일시상환형 주택담보대출의 차환이 어려울 경우 주택가격 하락과 함께 가계부실이 증가할 수 있음에 유의할 필요가 있다. 본 분석 결과는 기존의 거시총량지표를 이용한 가계부실위험 모니터링과 더불어 CB 등 미시자료를 이용한 차주 단위 분석을 결합하여 거시건전성 감독 차원에서 보다 심층적인 가계부채의 위험관리가 필요함을 시사한다.

• 토지주택연구
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.13-30
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• 2019

Parking lot within housing site contains public interest of relieving parking space shortage problem and subject to public restriction. If auctioned off at higher price by excessive competition in general competitive bid for land bidders, the development of parking lot will be made against its original purpose supply. The core issue is that a bid price is quite often to be blown out of proportion by 150%~ 250% due to extreme competition and, could face serious problem if a winning bidder runs sale business. If it is rental business, although about 30% of the total floor space of the whole building to be used as neighborhood facilities, too high winning bid price cause to lose transparency. In case of sale at aggregate buildings, most business operators would sell 30% of the neighborhood facilities, spare the parking lot and manages thereof separately. According to Aggregate Buildings Act, neighborhood facilities are allowed for individual registration and ownership of parking lot by business operator or designated person by business operator. In this case, the parking lot becomes 70% of the total floor space of the whole building and 70% of the land share which makes the mortgage very valuable and easier for business operator to get financial loan. There used to be many cases such as owners of neighborhood facilities (aggregate buildings partial owners) who run parking lot to repay their loan running parking lot to repay loan, but found that very tough and reached auction and relatively disadvantaged. For parking lot within housing site, it is recommend to exclude the public factors that land has and take into account of public restriction in area (housing site). Business opportunity for operators and protection of property rights for buyers in aggregate buildings, land supply method is recommended to replace from highest bid method into draw or private contract. In terms of price, supply at estimated price (construction price) and restriction on usage (Co-ownership of parking lot) proposals are submitted.

• 한국인구학
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.65-86
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• 1985

Korean population is ecpected to reach about 50 million by year 2000. And per capita GNP might attain the $5,000 level. This is bound to have profound impact on housing. For one thing, population and income growth will accelerate new household formation thus increasing new housing needs. On the other, changes in the housing preference function in association with income growth and new way of life would mean increasing demand for better dwelling environment. In addition, by year 2000, there will be many more elderly households necessitating new approaches to housing. The question is whether or not Korea could cope with new housing perspectives. If Korean housing has made in the past some progress in housing quality, it has not been able to tackle the mounting housing shortage. This is attributable to the concentration of effective housing demand in the hands of upper income groups in association with skewed income distribution and sustained dwelling price hike. Korea needs some basic changes in housing policy. The public sector should produce much more small dwellings either for sales or renting. Second, mortgage loans should be expanded so as to increase the access to housing. Third, every thing must be done to cut down the dwelling price through tax cut, relaxation of some requlations, cyclical stabilization of dwelling construction and loan subsidies.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제42권6호
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• pp.869-877
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• 2022

본 연구의 목적은 주택연금 중도해지자의 재가입 소요기간 결정요인을 실증분석하는 것이다. 실증분석을 위하여 주택연금을 운용 중인 한국주택금융공사 DB에서 2007년 7월부터 2021년 6월까지 중도해지 후 재가입자에 관한 정보를 추출하였다. 순서형로짓모형을 통한 실증분석 결과, 첫째, 가입자 개인 특성 중 연령대 변동, 부부에서 독신으로 변동, 독신 유지, 최초가입 유지기간 변수들이 통계적으로 유의하였고, 이 중 최초가입 유지기간이 재가입 소요기간을 단축시키는 요인으로 추정되었다. 둘째, 담보주택 특성 중 주택가격 변동과 소유형태 변동 변수들이 통계적으로 유의하였고, 이 중 소유형태 변동이 재가입 소요기간을 단축시키는 요인으로 추정되었다. 셋째, 계약 특성 중 지급방식 변동과 지급유형 변동변수들이 통계적으로 유의하였고, 이 두 변수들은 모두 재가입 소요기간을 증가시키는 요인으로 추정되었다. 실증분석 결과를 바탕으로 재가입 소요기간을 증가시키는 요인에 초점을 맞춘 제도개선을 통하여 중도해지자의 재가입을 유도하는 것과 동시에 소요기간을 단축시키는 것이 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.41-52
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• 2021

Purpose: This study aims to provide implications for the government's housing supply policy by analyzing the factors that determine the type of real estate holding and household debt. This study started from the awareness that the determinants of household debt differ depending on the type of real estate holding. Research design, data and methodology: Real estate ownership type was classified and analyzed into 4 models: model 1 (1 household 1 house and self-resident), model 2 (1 household multiple real estate ownership and self-resident), model 3 (1 household 1 house and rent residence), model 4 (1 household holds a large number of real estate and rent residence). The analysis method used multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable was household total debt. As independent variables, household debt, annual gross household income, financial assets, real estate net assets, annual repayment, demographic & residential characteristics were used. Results: 1) Model 4 has the highest household debt and the highest gross income, Model 2 has the most real estate mortgage loans and real estate net asset, and Model 1 has the highest real estate mortgage payments. 2) The positive factor of common household debt determinants is real estate net assets, and the negative factor is financial assets. 3) It was the net assets of real estate that acted as a positive factor in common for the four models. In other words, the more financial assets, the less household debt. It was analyzed that the more net assets of real estate, the more household debt. The annual repayment of financial liabilities had no influence on household debt, while the annual repayment of loan liabilities and household debt had a positive relationship. Conclusions: 1) It is necessary to introduce benefits and systems that can increase the proportion of household financial asset. Specific alternatives include tax benefits and reduced fees for financial asset investment. 2) In the case where a homeless person prepares one house for one household, it is necessary to prepare various support measures according to the income level. The specific alternative is to give additional points for pre-sale or apply an interest rate cut incentive for mortgage loans.