• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.43-54
• /
• 2013

This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.48 no.6
• /
• pp.879-896
• /
• 2013

The assessed land values and housing prices have been widely utilized as a basic information for the land and house trades and for evaluating governmental and local taxes. However, there exists a price difference in actual markets between the assessment level and assessed land values or housing prices. This paper emphasizes the spatial mismatch between the assessed land values and housing market prices and particularly addresses the following two aspects by focusing on spatial effects of the modifiable areal units, which would substantially affect the estimation of the assessed land values and housing prices. First, we examine the spatial distributions of the assessed land values and housing market prices, and the gap between those prices, on the basis of the aggregated spatial units(i.e., aggregation districts). Second, we explore the scale effect of the MAUP(modifiable areal unit problem) generally embedded in estimating the prices of the sampled standard lands and houses, and calibrating the correction index for the land values and housing prices for the individuals. For the application, we analysed the land values and housing prices in Seoul utilizing GIS and statistical software. As a result, some spatial clusters that the housing market prices are significantly higher than the assessed land values were identified at a finer geographic level. Also, it was empirically revealed that the statistical results from the regression of regional variables on the assessed land values for the individuals are significantly affected by the aggregation levels of the spatial units.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.19 no.6
• /
• pp.133-141
• /
• 2021

Governments of each country are actively implementing fiscal expansion policies to recover the real economy after Corona 19. In Korea, the stock market and housing market are greatly affected as liquidity in the market increases due to the implementation of disaster subsidies and welfare policies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between stock market and housing market trends and liquidity. Data were collected by the Bank of Korea and Kookmin Bank. The analysis period is from January 2000 to December 2020, and monthly data are used. For empirical analysis, the rate of change from the same month of the previous year was calculated for each variable, and numerical analysis, index analysis, and model analysis were performed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the stock index showed a positive(+) relationship with the house price, while a negative(-) relationship with M2. Previous studies have suggested that, in general, an increase in liquidity affects the stock market and the housing market, and inflation also rises. In this study, it was found that the stock market and the housing market had an effect on each other. However, it was investigated that liquidity showed an inverse relationship with the stock market and had no relationship with the housing market. Through this, this study estimated that there is a time difference in the relationship between liquidity and the stock market & housing market.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.57-69
• /
• 2020

Purpose - This study examines what are the asset market fluctuations in Europe and how each economic variable affects major variables, and explore the dynamics of housing and stock market through Greece. The variables under consideration are balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), M3, real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). We investigate the functional and causal relationships between housing and stock market. Research design, data, and methodology - Vector error correction model (VECM) is used to figure out the dynamic relationships among variables. This study also contains the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root, cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis by EViews 11.0. Results - The statistical tests show that all variables under consideration have one unit root and there is a longterm equilibrium relationship among variables for Greece. GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN can be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market, while GDP, LOAN, M3, BCA and HOUSING can bring direct effects to stock market in Greece. Conclusions - It can be judged that the policy that affects the lending policy of financial institutions may be more effective than the indirect variable such as monetary interest rate.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.18 no.11
• /
• pp.43-49
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting the housing market by setting household loans and M2, which are liquidity indicators, and the industrial production index reflecting economic fluctuations, as variables, and to determine the effect of expected housing prices. An empirical analysis was conducted based on the data from January 2005 to May 2020, and the HP filter was applied to the real house price as the expected house price variable. As a result of the analysis, it was found that real household loans, real M2, and so on, had an effect on house prices, and expectations for past house prices and house prices increased the house prices in the present period. These results show that even though the liquidity expansion is aimed at revitalizing the economy, it can affect housing prices as well.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.4 no.4
• /
• pp.361-370
• /
• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to appraise Bogeumzari Housing Program(BHP) which is providing public housing of different types for the target brackets on a matching system basis. Especially, on government's announcing BHP plan with the designation of several Bogeumzari districts in Seoul Metropolitan area, they raised a question about target groups' receiving the benefits of BHP plan and this paper focuses on the question. We tried to analyze two topics. First one is about the exorbitant windfall profits to the future potential residents derived from low price or rental cost of Bogeumzari Housing in comparison with neighborhood's market price. Second one is the low possibility of low-moderate income household's access to absolutely high price Bogeumzari Housing that is because the market price is so high in some area. BHP includes not only long-term public rental hosing(Permeant rental housing, National rental housing) for low income households but also other types of public rental housing(10-year rental housing, shared-ownership rental housing) for moderate income households. So, in this study we tried to find out the affordability of each bracket in three public housing types, which are public sales housing(condominium), 10-year rental housing and shared-ownership rental housing. Through analyzing the housing affordability by types, regions, size, we tried to seek the answer to the controversy and propose policy implications related to the future public housing programs.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.461-471
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this paper is to visualize the housing market dynamics with ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis) using MATLAB toolbox, in terms of the modeling housing market dynamics in the Busan Metropolitan City. The data are used the real housing price transaction records in Busan from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2009. Hedonic house price model, which is not reflecting spatial autocorrelation, has been a powerful tool in understanding housing market dynamics in urban housing economics. This study considers spatial autocorrelation in order to improve the traditional hedonic model which is based on OLS(Ordinary Least Squares) method. The study is, also, investigated the comparison in terms of $R^2$, Sigma Square(${\sigma}^2$), Likelihood(LR) among spatial econometrics models such as SAR(Spatial Autoregressive Models), SEM(Spatial Errors Models), and SAC(General Spatial Models). The major finding of the study is that the SAR, SEM, SAC are far better than the traditional OLS model, considering the various indicators. In addition, the SEM and the SAC are superior to the SAR.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.91-105
• /
• 2015

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) was introduced in 1999 in order to stabilize housing market and prevent potential speculation. However, research on MBS is limited, so this paper try to narrow the gap by focusing on the factors relating the pre-payment risk of MBS. We used Granger Causality Validation, Vector Auto Regressive, and HP-filtering with time-series data from 2004 to 2014. This paper shows that the prepayment rate of MBS increases as Mortgage rate decreases because borrowers tend to refinance existing MBS with new lower-rate MBS. In addition, it reveals that the rate increases as housing price increases. This outcome support the hypothesis that introduction of low-rate MBS invites more investment or speculation, and hence the housing price rises. The relationship between the MBS pre-payment rate and housing price is yet a peculiar characteristic of the MBS in Korea.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.15 no.3
• /
• pp.263-283
• /
• 2011

As China has achieved continuous high growth, innovative housing system and rapid growth of housing finance for thirty years since its reforming and opening, Chinese real estate industry has developed rapidly, investment in real estate has increased remarkably and price of real estate has increased continuously. In particular, as China joined WTO in 2001, overseas companies have expanded investment in Chinese real estate market with chances of potential profit. Recently, management of foreign capital real estate companies has expanded from housing to office buildings and luxury shops. Besides, management has expanded from real estate development to various tasks such as management, brokerage service, lease management and financial investment. In order to measure relationship between FDI in Chinese real estate and Chinese housing price, this document utilizes not only various data such as housing price, FDI to real estate, domestic loan of real estate, interest rate and exchange rate in 35 major cities across China but also previous researches to set an empirical analysis model and analyze effects of foreigners' direct investment in Chinese real estate on Chinese housing price.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.119-128
• /
• 2006

This study was conducted to determine the realistic value for the apartment view which has been vaguely known until now. Six apartment complexes in Dae-gu metropolitan city were selected to obtain the basic data for the study. The view value included in apartment price was analyzed using few elements such as picture-data establishment, declared- and market-price and questionnaire date from residents. The result of this study appeared that the qualitative-value of the apartment view was realistically varied with several factors such as story/side, plot planning of apartment complex and view element. The result obtained from the study will be widely used to declared-price and new apartment price.