• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.15-26
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• 2005

The bootstrap is a method of computational inference that simulates the creation of new data by resampling from a single data set. We propose a new job for the bootstrap: generating inputs from one historical trace using Threshold Bootstrap. In this regard, the most important quality of bootstrap samples is that they be functionally indistinguishable from independent samples of the same stochastic process. We describe a quantitative measure of difference between two time series, and demonstrate the sensitivity of this measure for discriminating between two data generating processes. Utilizing this distance measure for the task of generating inputs, we show a way of tuning the bootstrap using a single observed trace. This application of the threshold bootstrap will be a powerful tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulation analysis relies on built-in input generators. These generators make unrealistic assumptions about independence and marginal distributions. The alternative source of inputs, historical trace data, though realistic by definition, provides only a single input stream for simulation. One benefit of our method would be expanding the number of inputs achieving reality by driving system models with actual historical input series. Another benefit might be the automatic generation of lifelike scenarios for the field of finance.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.155-165
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• 1998

Cultural-historical places, due to their strong symbolic sense of place shared in various people, have important impacts on people's cognitive and emotional reactions. Especially, the visual characteristics of surrounding areas of cultural -historical places directly influence the way the places are perceived, because they function as a visual background of the places. This study examined how the visual characteristics of surrounding landscape of cultural-historical places nfluenced the perception of the places. The visual characteristics of the surrounding landscape was minipulated by a computer simulation in the two aspects; quality and scale. The quality of the simulated landscape was divided by two kinds : natural and artificial . The scale of the simulated landscape was classified by three kinds : 1/3 of the middle ground, 2/3, and 3/3. Specifically, in each photo simulation, simulated natural or artificial background was introduced up to 1/3, 2/3 or the full height of historic monument. After a computer simulation, people's cognitive and emotional reactions to the simulated slides were investigated. The results showed that the quality of surrounding landscape have a great impact on all the cognitive and emotional reactions investigated. On the vontrary, the scale of surrounding landscape was found to habve an impact on partial reactions, such as all the emotions, part of the cognitions, and visiting preference only. The results revealed that the visual characteristics of surrounding landscape should be considered as the crucial elements in planning of cultural-historical places. Based on the study results, several suggestions were made for the landscape planning and conservation for cultural-historical places and historic cities.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.3 no.2 s.10
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• pp.107-113
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• 2002

The processes for management of historical data in construction have many problems according to construction firm$^{\circ}{\phi}$s participating in some of the processes. This study analyzed about current process and provided improved processes with IDEF method and simulation. The proposed $\lceil$To-Be$\rfloor$ model is more effective than $\lceil$As-Is$\rfloor$ model according to the result of simulation performance. It is revealed that the productivity in the construction company is more improved than that of the owner from the results of the system simulation.

• Water for future
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.71-77
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• 1974

This paper reviews several different single site generation models for further development of a model for generating the Synthetic sequences of streamflow in the continuous streams like main streams in Korea. Initially the historical time series is looked using a time series technique, that is correlograms, to determine whether a lag one Markov model will satisfactorily represent the historical data. The single site models which were examined include an empirical model using the historical probability distribution of the random component, the linear autoregressive model(Markov model, or Thomas-Fiering model) using both logarithms of the data and Matala's log-normal transformation equations, and finally gamma distribution model.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.59-69
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• 2021

Historical records of earthquakes are generally used as a basis to extrapolate the instrumental earthquake catalog in time and space during the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the historical catalogs' input parameters determined through historical descriptions rather than any quantitative measurements are accompanied by considerable uncertainty in PSHA. Therefore, quantitative assessment to verify the historical earthquake parameters is essential for refining the reliability of PSHA. This study presents an approach and its application to constrain reliable ranges of the magnitude and corresponding epicenter of historical earthquakes. First, ranges rather than specific values of ground motion intensities are estimated at multiple locations with distances between each other for selected historical earthquakes by reviewing observed co-seismic natural phenomena, structural damage levels, or felt areas described in their historical records. Based on specific objective criteria, this study selects only one earthquake (July 24, 1643), which is potentially one of the largest historical earthquakes. Then, ground motion simulations are performed for sufficiently broadly distributed epicenters, with a regular grid to prevent one from relying on strong assumptions. Calculated peak ground accelerations and velocities in areas with the historical descriptions on corresponding earthquakes are converted to intensities with an empirical ground motion-intensity conversion equation to compare them with historical descriptions. For the ground motion simulation, ground motion prediction equations and a frequency-wavenumber method are used to consider the effects of possible source mechanisms and stress drop. From these quantitative calculations, reliable ranges of epicenters and magnitudes and the trade-off between them are inferred for the earthquake that can conservatively match the upper and lower boundaries of intensity values from historical descriptions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.11a
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• pp.141-142
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• 2012

Estimating the productivity of labor has relied on the experience and intuition of an estimator, or productivity data, such as standard in practical estimation. However, when new technologies and new construction methods employed in the construction industry, Dependence of a quantity surveyor's intuition is increased. This is because of the lack of a systematic methodology which models, estimates, and measures the labor productivity, Due to the historical productivity data is unavailable. Even thought project history data contains information that is important to predict the performance of a project, It can not provide valuable information to model, estimate, and measure the labor productivity. This is because 1) the absence of the productivity measurement system with consistency, 2) the difficulty of reusability of historical data collected. Therefor, this study suggests a methodology which build a productivity model by measuring the productivity of labor and collecting the historical data systematically. In addition, this methology is applied to develop a productivity model of shop-drawing and manufacturing process using descrete event simulation.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.247-259
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• 2008

The potential use of Cu-based shape memory alloys (SMA) in retrofitting historical monuments is investigated in this paper. This study is part of the ongoing work conducted in Tunisia within the framework of the FP6 European Union project (WIND-CHIME) on the use of appropriate modern seismic protective systems in the conservation of Mediterranean historical buildings in earthquake-prone areas. The present investigation consists of a finite element simulation, as a preliminary to an experimental study where a cantilever masonry wall, representing a part of a historical monument, is subjected to monotonic and quasi-static cyclic loadings around a horizontal axis at the base level. The wall was retrofitted with an array of copper SMA wires with different cross-sectional areas. A new model is proposed for heat-treated copper SMAs and is validated based on published experimental results. A series of nonlinear finite element analyses are then performed on the wall for the purpose of assessing the SMA device retrofitting capabilities. Simulation results show an improvement of the wall response for the case of monotonic and quasi-static cyclic loadings.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.393-399
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• 2009

This paper introduces an automated tool named Advanced Stochastic Schedule Simulation System (AS4). The system automatically integrates CPM schedule data exported from Primavera Project Planner (P3) and historical activity duration data obtained from a project data warehouse, computes the best fit probability distribution functions (PDFs) of historical activity durations, assigns the PDFs identified to respective activities, computes the optimum number of simulation runs, simulates the schedule network for the optimum number of simulation runs, and estimates the best fit PDF of project completion times (PCTs). AS4 improves the reliability of simulation-based scheduling by effectively dealing with the uncertainties of the activities' durations, increases the usability of the schedule data obtained from commercial CPM software, and effectively handles the variability of the PCTs by finding the best fit PDF of PCTs. It is designed as an easy-to-use computer tool programmed in MATLAB. AS4 encourages the use of simulation-based scheduling because it is simple to use, it simplifies the tedious and burdensome process involved in finding the PDFs of the many activities' durations and in assigning the PDFs to the many activities of a new network under modeling, and it does away with the normality assumptions used by most simulation-based scheduling systems in modeling PCTs.

• Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.431-442
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• 2015

Currently, a BIM-based quantity takeoff (QTO) system is mainly focused on architectural projects. To perform this, diverse quantity takeoff methods such as an object-based automatic quantity takeoff, manual quantity and base functions of calculation have widely been utilizing. However, since BIM library for road projects includes structural elements associated with alignment, it is necessary to establish cost estimation system interlocked with historical cost using 3D library by each unit length. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to develop cost estimation model with using a historical cost approach so that it can be utilized in construction planning based on the BIM library for road projects. For this, based on the BIM library for road, the standardized quantity is estimated, and a process for calculating historical cost and a verification model with a 5D simulation was developed by mapping a WBS code with each BIM library object. This can be applied during the approximate cost estimation process in a project planning and an initial design phase for road projects. Besides, it is expected that these results will be utilized in constructing an optimal historical cost estimation process for project libraries.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.763-777
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• 2002

The objective of this study is to develop computer simulation model that produces precipitation patterns from stochastic model. The hourly precipitation process consists of the precipitation occurrence and precipitation amounts. In this study, an event cluster model developed by Lee and Lee(2002) is used to describe the occurrence process of events, and the hourly precipitation amounts within each event is described by a nonstationary form of a first-order autoregressive process. The complete stochastic model for hourly precipitation is fitted to historical precipitation data by estimating the model parameters. An analysis of historical and simulated hourly precipitation data for Seoul indicates that the stochastic model preserves many of the features of historical precipitation. The autocorrelation coefficients of the historical and simulated data are nearly identical except for lags more than about 3 hours. The precipitation intensity, duration, marginal distributions, and conditional distributions for event characteristics for the historical and simulated data showed in general good agreement with each other.