• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.4-24
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• 2009

This paper examined archaeological resources that discuss how Silla entered the Gangneung area, the coastal region along the East Sea that has been excavated most actively. Silla expanded its territories while organizing the its system as an ancient state and acquired several independent townships in various regions, stretching its forces to the East Sea area faster than any other ancient states of the time. In particular, many early relics and heritages of Silla have been found in Gangneung, the center of the East Sea area. Many archaeological resources prove these circumstances of that time and provide brief texts that are valuable for our interpretation of historical facts. In this respect, it was possible for me to examine these resources to answer my question as to why early relics and heritages of Silla are found in the Gangneung area. Based on my research on Silla's advancement into the Gangneung area, I have acquired the following results: How did Silla rule this area after conquering Yeguk in the Gangneung area? After conquering the Gangneung area, Silla attempted an indirect ruling at first. Later, Silla adopted a direct ruling system. I divided the indirect ruling period into two phases: introduction and settlement. In detail, Silla's earthenware and stone chamber tombs first appeared in Hasi-dong in the fourth quarter of the 4th Century and the tombs spread to Chodang-dong in the second quarter of the 5th Century. A belt with dragon pattern openwork, which seems to be from the second quarter of the 5th Century, was found to tell us that the Gangneung region began receiving rewards from Silla during this time. Thus, the period from the fourth quarter of the 4th Century to the second quarter of the 5th Century is designated as the 1st Phase (Introduction) of indirect ruling in terms of aechaeological findings. This is when Silla was first advanced to the Gangneung area and tolerated independent administration of the conquered. In the third and fourth quarters of the 5th Century, old mound tombs appeared and burials of relics that symbolized power emerged. In the third quarter of the 5th Century, stone chamber tombs were prevalent, but wooden chamber tombs, stone mounded wooden chamber tombs, and lateral entrance stone chamber tombs began to emerge. Also, tombs that were clustered in Hasi-dong and Chodang-dong began to scatter to Byeongsan-dong, Yeongjin-ri, and Bangnae-ri nearby. Steel pots were the symbol of power that emerged at this time. In the fourth quarter of the 5th Century, stone chamber tombs were still dominating, but wooden chamber tombs, stone mounded wooden chamber tombs, and lateral entrance stone chamber tombs became more popular. More crowns, crown ornaments, big daggers, and belts were bestowed by Silla, mostly in Chodang-dong and Byeongsan-dong. The period from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of the 5th Century was designated as the 2nd Phase (Settlement) of indirect ruling in terms of aechaeological findings. At this time, Silla bestowed items of power to the ruling class of the Gangneung area and gave equal power to the rulers of Chodang-dong and Byeongsan-dong to keep them restrained by each other. However, Silla converted the ruling system to direct ruling once it recognized the Gangneung area as the base of its expedition of conquest to the north. In the first quarter of the 6th Century, old mound tombs disappeared and small/medium-sized mounds appeared in the western inlands and the northern areas. In this period, the tunnel entrance stone chamber tombs were large enough for people to enter with doors. A cluster of several tunnel entrance stone chamber tombs was formed in Yeongjin-ri and Bangnae-ri at this time, probably with the influence of Silla's direct ruling. In the first quarter of the 6th Century, Silla dispatched officers from the central government to complete the local administration system and replaced the ruling class of Chodang-dong and Byeongsan-dong with that of Silla-friendly Yeonjin-ri and Bangnae-ri to reorganize the local administration system and gain full control of the Gangneung area.

• 보존과학연구
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• s.25
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• pp.119-132
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• 2004

Annals of the Joseon Dynasty is the authentic record of the historical facts and events taken place throughout the entire period of 472 years(25 generations, 1392~1863)described in a chronological order. The tremendous volume of the records contains the factual events taken place in almost all the fields of the Joseon Dynasty ranging from politics, economy to history of the dynasty. Not only because of its affluent contents but also with the precision of its records, it was designated as the National Treasure No. 151 in1973 by the Korean government and also registered as the Memory of the World by UNESCO in October 1997.This study is to report a exhaustive investigation results on the conservation state of annals of the Joseon Dynasty, especially Mt. Jeongjoksan edition, under the storage of the Kyujanggak in order to obtain the current condition, and thereby to estimate the any deterioration of the waxed volumes in the future. According to results of the investigation, we are going to verify damage causes of annals of the Joseon Dynasty, and to consider scientific conservation methods for the permanent preservation of invaluable cultural heritage. The major problem with the preservation of annals has arisen particularly from the deterioration of the waxed volumes of the Mt. Jeongjoksan edition. In order to provide for the counter measures for this problem, we have conducted twice investigations(first :1998~1999, second : 2003) to the internal and external conditions of waxed volumes(Annals of King Taejo~Annals of King Myeongjong).The result of the investigation has indicated that the paper quality of the some of the waxed volumes (Annals of King Taejong~Annals of King Sejong) is cracked and folded and the pages are imbedded to each other due to the hardened or congealed wax on the paper. Some of the pages are even getting moldy. And in order to detect as to whether“ there has been any deterioration progressed to the waxed books in the modern storage facility of the Kyujanggak equipped with constant temperature and humidity condition, the first investigation(1998~1999) and the second investigation(2003) have recorded the values of acidity, whiteness and moisture rate of the waxed paper, reporting an observation that there has been no difference on the measuring items. This indicates that no virtual deterioration has been progressed so far to the waxed volumes preserved in the Kyujanggak. Also, except for the causes of deterioration to the paper by insects and microorganisms, the major cause for the paper damage seems to the change of moisture of the paper caused from the alteration of the temperature and humidity of the storage environment. With this understanding in mind, we have conducted an environmental investigation on the three selected points of the storage in the aspects of the temperature, humidity, air current, $CO_2$,HCHO, and $SO_2$.It has been observed that the temperature stood at $16.9^{\circ}C~20.2^{\circ}C$ and the humidity was stable between 53%~56% during the period of the investigation. The concentration of the carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide of the storage were very similar to those in the air. These data lead to presume that there is no problem in the aspect of carbon oxidization. But the concentration of sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide and formaldehyde of the storage were detected a little higher than those of standard. Therefore, we consider that it is necessary to ventilate the internal air of the store room by means of operating air purification devices.

• Journal of Korean Medical classics
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• v.5
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• pp.151-199
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• 1992

A study on Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n, one of the most widely-known Korean medicine books, has been conducted and the findings are as follows:the political and social background at the end of Yi-dynasty amidst the inflow of western civilization and the aggression of foreign forces can be seen as a historical period of trial, when civilization and independence had to be preserved at the same time, during the period, the social trend was to pursue a rapid practical solution rather than a profound theory. Responding to this trend, simple and easy medical science became to prevailand the representative medicine book of this kind was Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n. 1. Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n was written comprising the characteristics of simple and easy medical science with a view to popularizing-collection of logics, easy readability, medical science in time, etc. 2. Bang Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n, rich and grand in content, came out of Dong-$\breve{U}$i-Bo-Gam at the right moment as a pragmatic guide book of Korea medical practice symbolizing Korean spirit. 3. Do-yun Whang whose pen name was Hye-Am was born in Changwon, Kyungnam-do as the 18th descendant of Changwon Whang family. He engaged in medical practice in Seoul and wrote and edited Boo-Bang-Py$\breve{u}$n-Ram. $\breve{U}$i-Jong-Son-Ik, $\breve{U}$i-J$\breve{u}$ng-Son-Ik-Bu-Yeo, $\breve{U}$i-Bang-Whan-Tu, ect. and made his son, Pil-Su follow him and let him edit Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n, which put $\breve{U}$i-Bang-Whal-Tu and Son-Ik-Bon-Cho together. 4. The construct of Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n can be subdivied into three parts: herbs of 34 classes and 514 kinds were arranged on the upper part and $\breve{U}$i-Bang-Whal-Tu was arranged on the middle end lower part. Such arrangement can be very effective in clinics. 5. Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n as a curative book of Korean medical science has been a necessary another ego for many Korean medical practioners. It also played a great role of enhancing Korean oriental medical science to be widely used by Koreans. On the other hand, it produced a side effect of emergence of employed medical practioner who lacked in scholastic aptitude. 6. Tens or newly edited Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n have been issued. Among them, Jung-Jeong, Bang-Yak-Hap-py$\breve{u}$n, J$\breve{u}$ng-Mak-Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n. By$\breve{u}$n-J$\breve{u}$ng-Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n, and By$\breve{u}$n-J$\breve{u}$ng-Bang-Yak-Jung-Jeon have been widely known. Lately, Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n which includes more symptoms and remedies or is translated into Korean came out in several kinds. 7. The number of korea classical medicinal books quoted in Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n is 68, among which Dong-$\breve{U}$i-Bo-Gam Occupies the top in the list enlisting 69 medicinal treatment. This Shows that Dong-$\breve{U}$i-Bo-Gam gave birth to Bang-Yak-Hap-Py$\breve{u}$n.

• Sijohaknonchong
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• v.21
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• pp.77-110
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• 2004

This study is an exploration of a Korean-American writer, Hong-Eun's Mong-yu siga. Hong-Eun immigrated to the United States during the colonial rule of the Japanese government. He was a publisher of The New Korea Times, and contributed various literary works to it. The purpose of this study is to analyze his two Mong-yu sigas published in 1935 and 1947 and elucidate their meanings. Using dream as a primary motif, the intention of Mong-yu mode is to achieve desire which is impossible to reach in reality. While his staying in the United States, Hong-Eun could not return his home country for two reasons, that is, political and financial ones. To return Korea desperately, he wrote sigas by adopting Mong-yu mode. His first attempt was reflected as eight pieces of consecutive poetries titled This Mountain In My Dream, I am Home. This Mountain was published on the 25th of April, 1935 and In My Dream, I am Home was contributed from May the 9th of 1935 to July the fourth of the same year. These works were published in the The New Korea Times' poetry column under the pen name of Donghae-soboo , Representing gasa of the enlightenment era, this poetry depicts historical identity of Chosun dynasty, especially focusing on before and after the 1900s. As a result of it, the poetry sketches the ideology of the Middle Ages. His second attempt was A Country and Hometown written as a form of prelude on the 25th of September, 1947. In addition, A Country in My Dream was published as a form of six pieces of consecutive poetry from October the second to November the sixth of 1947. He chose sijo as a major form of poetry, and the image of the poetry seemed to be the continuation of his first attempt. Confronting the reality of the his own country which is divided, the writer expresses his antagonism toward America and Russia. Although he could eventually return his country later, he rationalized himself by saying that his it is not the ideal place to go. Mong-yu mode is a traditional poetic technique which the intellectuals of the Middle Age used to use as one pattern of allegory. In addition to this, in the period of the enlightenment of Korea, Mong-yu was used to avoid the Japanese censorship and experiment on the diverse ways of writing. In terms of literary history, the significance of Hong-Eun's creation of Mong-yu sigas is that Hong-Eun shares the same intention with Korean intellectuals of the enlightenment period.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.108-125
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• 2015

The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.115-128
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• 2019

Huam-dong is a representative area from the Japanese colonial period and is the space where most Japanese-style buildings remain in Seoul. Interest in modern cultural heritage continues to increase, including the registration of cultural properties in 2001, building assets in 2015, and the registration of cultural property units in 2018. As the debate continues over the necessity of preserving cultural heritage that reminds us of the Japanese colonial, there is a need for research to grasp the perceptions of stakeholders along with the perceived value of such spaces. This study identified the subjective perception types of the stakeholders concerned with the Japanese-style building group in Huam-dong, analyzed characteristics by types, and debated the issues. For this purpose, Q methodology, which is a statistical technique for measuring human self-subjectivity and extracting common human perspectives, was used. A literature study on the values of Huam-dong and modern cultural heritage was conducted, and a Q questionnaire based on five aspects of modern cultural heritage values (historical, architectural, sociocultural, landscape, and economic) was applied. The results of the study depicted three types of cognition and showed different attitudes toward the Japanese building group. This study found a conflict comparing the perceptional differences between the types of cognition. This study is meaningful in that it provides an in-depth approach to the perspectives of the stakeholders concerned with the Japanese-style buildings clustered in central Seoul. It is also meant to present a theoretical framework that can be applied to the use area as sustainable cultural heritage through the establishment of preservation and utilization of Japanese-style areas and conflict resolution.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.5
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• pp.101-118
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• 1993

Generally there is no law and liability system which applies particulary to commercial space ventures. There are several international treaties and national statutes which deal with space ventures, but their impact on the liability of commercial space ventures has not been significant. Every state law in the United States will impose both tort and contract liability on those responsible for injuries or losses caused by defective products or by services performed negligently. As with the providers of other products and services, those who participate in commercial space ventures have exposure to liability in both tort and contract which is limited to the extent of the resulting damage The manufacturer of a small and cheap component which caused a satellite to fail to reach orbit or to operate nominally has the same exposure to liability as the provider of launch vehicle or the manufacturer of satellite into which the component was incorporaded. Considering the enormity of losses which may result from launch failure or satellite failure, those participated in commercial space ventures will do their best to limit their exposure to liability by contract to the extent permitted by law. In most states of the United States, contracts which limit or disclaim the liability are enforceable with respect to claims for losses or damage to property if they are drafted in compliance with the requirements of the applicable law. In California an attempt to disclaim the liability for one's own negligence will be enforceable only if the contract states explicitly that the parties intend to have the disclaimer apply to negligence claims. Most state laws of the United States will refuse to enforce contracts which attempt to disclaim the liability for gross negligence on public policy grounds. However, the public policy which favoured disclaiming the liability as to gross negligence for providers of launch services was pronounced by the United States Congress in the 1988 Amendments to the 1984 Commercial Space Launch Act. To extend the disclaimer of liability to remote purchasers, the contract of resale should state expressly that the disclaimer applies for the benefit of all contractors and subcontractors who participated in producing the product. This situation may occur when the purchaser of a satellite which has failed to reach orbit has not contracted directly with the provider of launch services. Contracts for launch services usually contain cross-waiver of liability clauses by which each participant in the launch agrees to be responsible for it's own loss and to waive any claims which it may have against other participants. The crosswaiver of liability clause may apply to the participants in the launch who are parties to the launch services agreement, but not apply to their subcontractors. The role of insurance in responding to many risks has been critical in assisting commercial space ventures grow. Today traditional property and liability insurance, such as pre-launch, launch and in-orbit insurance and third party liability insurance, have become mandatory parts of most space projects. The manufacture and pre-launch insurance covers direct physical loss or damage to the satellite, its apogee kick moter and including its related launch equipment from commencement of loading operations at the manufacture's plant until lift off. The launch and early orbit insurance covers the satellite for physical loss or damage from attachment of risk through to commissioning and for some period of initial operation between 180 days and 12 months after launch. The in-orbit insurance covers physical loss of or damage to the satellite occuring during or caused by an event during the policy period. The third party liability insurance covers the satellite owner' s liability exposure at the launch site and liability arising out of the launch and operation in orbit. In conclusion, the liability in commercial space ventures extends to any organization which participates in providing products and services used in the venture. Accordingly, it is essential for any organization participating in commercial space ventures to contractually disclaim its liability to the extent permitted by law. To achieve the effective disclaimers, it is necessary to determine the applicable law and to understand the requirements of the law which will govern the terms of the contract. A great deal of funds have been used in R&D for commercial space ventures to increase reliability, safety and success. However, the historical reliability of launches and success for commercial space ventures have proved to be slightly lower than we would have wished for. Space insurance has played an important role in reducing the high risks present in commercial space ventures.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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• v.20
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• pp.31-47
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• 1993

1. The relationship between Korea and Buk-Song had maintained for 164 years(964 1126 A.D). The period of relationship was from KwangJong Year 13(4years after establishing Buk-Song), Song Tae-Cho 1 year, to HeumJong Cheong Dang 1st year(InJong 4years in Koran). Author divides into three periodic terms, and remarkable diplomatic facts are as follows. 1) KwangJong year 13(963 A.D) SungJong year 13(994 A.D) : Normal relations, Song needed Korea's armed support. 2) MokJong year 6(1003 A.D) HyunJong year 9(1018 A.D) : Not steady relations and broke up, by MunJong year 26, Dang requested to resume the diplomatic relations. 3) MunJong year 25(1017 A.D) InJong 4(1126 A.D) : Song utilized Korea as a back supporter, but Song destructed by Keum. 2. Korea was donated knightage without offcial clothing by BukSong 10 times(KwangJong year 13 SungJong year 11). However during 164 years. Song presented some clothings Korea friendly. 3. Even though Korea cound not continue the steady diplomatic relations, Korea had been influenced the social systems including cloth-ing systems by Dang. Song dynasty. 4. The author studys historical materials which show that TongilSh-Shinra adapted social systems of Dang dynasty including clothing systems, which was succeeded to Korea for 200 years. Details are as follows ; 1) Original clothing color-systems which were Ja(purpil), Cheong(blue), Hwang(yellow), Pi, called 4-clored-system, of Tongil-Shinra, was suceeded to Korea, Above mentioned clothing systems of three countries of Korean peninsula. 2) When Korea unified the certificate of Pisam holders were superior from those of Tongil-Shinra and Hoo-Bakjae. There two classes used same seried-color 'ja, (Dan, Pi), Cheong(blue), Hwang(yellow)', or 'ja, (Dan, Pi), Cheong' and lasted to KwangJong year10 as a of-ficial clothing. 3) KwangJong year 7, according to the three colored official clothing system of Hooju, accepted Hooju's KwangJong year 11, that shifted 'Ja, (Dan, Pi), Cheong, Hwang', or, Ja, (Dan, Pi) Cheong', to 'Ja, Dan, Pi, Rok(green)'. 4) The clothing systems which are ja, (Dan, Pi), Rok which established KwangJong year 11 shifted to Song's, Ja, Ju(orange), Rok, Cheong, which had happened SungJong year 14 to MokJong 1st year. 5) 4-colored systems ('Ja, Pi, Rok, Cheong (distictable : sky blue, ocean blue)' shifted to 3 colored system which established Song ShingJong 1st year, which succeeded to Nam-Song and Keum. 5. The relationship between Korea and Yo had maintained for 207 years(918 1125 A.D). The period of relationship was from TaeJo 1st year to InJong year 3. 6. Yo, and Korea were called for king(15 times), prince(7 times). 7. Korea was donated knightage by Yo. The time when HyunJong year 13, Yo donated official clothing. From that time had used to do. The author divides into three periodic terms and discrives the shifting the formal clothing systems. Details were as follows ; 1) HyunJong year 13 MunJong year 8 : Even donating clothing systems from Yo had maintained for 35 years, Yeo, Song, Yo, three countries had not have formal cloth-ing, because they had been on the strug-gling. So that Korea had followed the same way of informal clothing. 2) MunJong year 918 : Yo donated the formal clothing to Korea for the King. Diplomatic condition was in the control, so that whole three countries used formal clothing. 3) MunJong year 19 YeaJong year 3 : Korea was donated 'Kuryumyun Kujangbokje', which became the formal clothings vs China.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.61-71
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• 2009

Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.