• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.151-165
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• 2017

This study investigates the effect of revenue recognition by percentage of completion method on financial analysts' earnings forecasting information in order industry. Specifically, we examines how the analysts' earnings forecast errors and biases differ according to whether or not to report the unbilled revenue account balance and the level of unbilled revenue account balance. The sample consists of 453 firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange during the period from 2010 to 2014 since the information on unbilled revenue accounts can be obtained after the adoption of K-IFRS. The results are as follows. First, we find that the firms with unbilled revenue account balances have lower analysts' earnings forecast accuracy than the firms who do not report unbilled revue account balances. In addition, we find that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts decreases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. Unbilled revenue account balances occur when the revenue recognition of the contractor is faster than the client. There is a possibility that managerial discretionary judgment and estimation may intervene when the contractor calculates the progress rate. The difference between the actual progress of the construction and the progress recognized by the company lowers the predictive value of financial statements. Our results suggest that the analysts' earnings forecasts may be more difficult for the firms that report unbilled revenue balances as applying the revenue recognition method based on the progress criteria. Second, we find that the firms reporting unbilled revenue account balances tend to have higher the optimistic biases in analysts' earnings forecast than the firms who do not report unbilled revenue account balances. And we find that the analysts' earnings forecast biases are increases as the amount of unbilled revenue increases. This study suggests an effort to reduce the arbitrary adjustment and estimation in the measurement of the progress as well as the introduction of the progress measurement method which can reflect the actual progress. Investors are encouraged to invest and analyze the characteristics of the order-based industry accounting standards. In addition, the results of this study empower the accounting transparency enhancement plan for order industry proposed by the policy authorities.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.21 no.1 s.23
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• pp.70-81
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• 1988

To measure the birth registration rate and the validity of birth registration data in rural area, all of the 4,014 married women under 49 years of age who had not been sterilized in Gunwee county of Kyungpook province were followed by Myun health workers for 2 years from April 1, 1985 to March 31, 1987 and 766 births were detected. All of the birth registration records of Myun offices were reviewed on September 30, 1987 and 944 births which occurred within the above mentioned period were found. Actual birth date obtained by follow-up study were compared with the birth date on registration card. Among 766 births detected by follow-up study,576 births(75.2%) which were reported within 6 months after birth were ascertained on the official registration records and 96 births(12.5%) were not found on the records although mother stated that the birth was registered. The registration rate within legal due date was 61.3% among 576 births detected by follow-up study and also ascertained on the official records. The registration rate within legal due date was lower in mothers under 20 years of age and above 35 years and in mothers who had only primary education. It was decreased as the birth order increased. The registration rate was higher in births occurred from October to March than births occurred from April to September. All of the births of 7 neonatal deaths were not reported. The registered birth date was consistent with the actual birth date in 78.0%. Birth date on record was earlier than the actual birth date in 6.8% and later in 15.3%. The consistency rate was lower in mothers above 35 years of age(54.5%), and in infants of 4th birth order and above(56.3%). The rate was increased as the maternal education level increased. The rate of boys was higher than that of girls. A higher percentage(17.4%) of infants born in March was registered with earlier date than the actual birth date and most of these registered birth dates were lunar calendar date. This might be related with the age for entering the primary school. The study findings revealed that the birth registration rate within legal due date and accuracy of report have been increased in recent years, but the infant mortality rate derived from the birth registration seems to be very inaccurate. It is suggested to let the medical personnel who delivered the baby report the birth by mail directly to the current address of parent while infants delivered at home without professional attendant may comply with the present registration system.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.402-410
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• 2006

This paper presents a method for feature based block motion estimation that uses multi -resolution image sequences to obtain the panoramic images in the continuous ultrasound image sequences. In the conventional block motion estimation method, the centers of motion estimation blocks are set at the predetermined and equally spaced locations. This requires the large blocks to include at least one feature, which inevitably requires long estimation time. In this paper, we propose an adaptive method which locates the center of the motion estimation blocks at the feature points. This make it possible to reduce the block size while keeping the motion estimation accuracy The Harris-Stephen corner detector is used to get the feature points. The comer points tend to group together, which cause the error in the global motion estimation. In order to distribute the feature points as evenly as Possible, the image is firstly divided into regular subregions, and a strongest corner point is selected as a feature in each subregion. The ultrasound Images contain speckle patterns and noise. In order to reduce the noise artifact and reduce the computational time, the proposed method use the multi-resolution image sequences. The first algorithm estimates the motion in the smoothed low resolution image, and the estimated motion is prolongated to the next higher resolution image. By this way the size of search region can be reduced in the higher resolution image. Experiments were performed on three types of ultrasound image sequences. These were shown that the proposed method reduces both the computational time (from 77ms to 44ms) and the displaced frame difference (from 66.02 to 58.08).

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.101-124
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• 2018

Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.161-177
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• 2014

Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.241-247
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• 2006

Recently, interests and utilization on Computed Radiography(CR) and Digital Radiography(DR) tends to increase owing to an introduction of Picture Archiving and Communication System(PACS) and an accuracy control of special medical equipment for a breast imaging examination. This study was intended to compare and analyze a detector's imaging quality by each system to be used for the breast imaging examination by using ACR Phantom used at the accuracy control. As an evaluation method, a significance and reliability of image's value using the ACR Phantom was analyzed by using SPSS program. The results are followed. 1. For the fiber, there was 3.9 score in Screen-Film, 4.2 score in CR($50{\mu}m$), 3.2 score in CR($100{\mu}m$), and 4.2 score in DR. There was the high score in the order of CR($50{\mu}m$), DR, Screen-Film, and CR($100{\mu}m$)(P<0.05). 2. For the calcification, there was 2.7 score in Screen-Film, 2.5 score in CR($50{\mu}m$), 2.0 score in CR($100{\mu}m$), and 2.9 score in DR. There was the high score in the order of DR, Screen-Film, CR($50{\mu}m$), and CR($100{\mu}m$).(0.025(P<0.05). 3. For Mass, there was 3.8 score in Screen-Film, 3.8 score in CR($50{\mu}m$), 3.6 score in CR($100{\mu}m$), and 4.5 score in DR. There was the high score in the order of DR, CR($50{\mu}m$), Screen-Film, and CR($100{\mu}m$) (P<0.1). 4. As the total score, there was 10.4 score in Screen-Film, 10.6 score in CR($50{\mu}m$), 8.7 score in CR($100{\mu}m$), and 11.3 score in DR. There was the high score in the order of DR, $CR(50{\mu}m$), Screen-Film, and $CR(100{\mu}m$). As shown in the above results, it can be known that DR and Screen-Film System has higher image quality than CR. But, DR has unstability caused by element, and Screen-Film has the low image quality caused by artifact as disadvantages. When Dual-Side CR($50{\mu}m$) was used among CR systems which had the problem of low image quality, it was indicated that there was no difference with Screen-Film System. Because the radiation imaging examination tends to become digitalized, each system for the breast imaging examination will need to be developed and supplemented.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.64 no.2
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• pp.80-86
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• 2008

Background: Park et al. developed the Korean reference equation for the measurement of diffusing capacity in 1985. However, the equation has not been widely used in Korea and foreign reference equations have been popularly used. We intended to compare the clinical usefulness and the accuracy of the the Korean reference equation (Park's equation) with that of the foreign equation (Burrows' equation) that is commonly used in Korea. Methods: 1. Evaluation of clinical usefulness; Among 1,584 patients who underwent diffusing capacity ($D_LCO$) at the Asan Medical Center from July to December 2006, group A subjects included 276 patients who had different interpretations of $D_LCO$ in trials employing Burrows' equation and Park's equation. Clinical assessment was decided by consensus of two respiratory physicians. In order to evaluate the clinical usefulness of Burrows' equation and Park's equation, agreement of clinical assessment and $D_LCO$ interpretation were measured. 2. Evaluation of accuracy; Group B subjects were 81 patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) and 39 normal subjects. The 81 ILD patients were diagnosed following a surgical lung biopsy. The accuracy of diagnosing ILD as well as sensitivity and specificity were evaluated according to the use of the reference equations (Burrows' equation and Park's equation) for $D_LCO$. Results: Agreement between clinical assessment and interpretation of $D_LCO$ was 22% for the use of Burrows' equation and 78% for the use of Park's equation. The sensitivity and specificity of the Burrows' equation for diagnosing ILD were 64.2% and 100%. The sensitivity and specificity of the Park's equation for diagnosing ILD were 90.1% and 100%. The sensitivity of the Park's equation for diagnosing ILD was significantly higher than that of Burrows' equation (p<0.001). Conclusion: The Korean reference equation (Park's equation) was more clinically useful and had higher sensitivity for diagnosing ILD than the foreign reference equation (Burrows' equation).

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.6B
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• pp.399-406
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• 2012

The objective of this research is to develop greenhouse gas generation models and estimation method of their parameters for solid waste landfills. Two models obtained by differentiating the Modified Gompertz and Logistic models were employed to evaluate two parameters of a first-order decay model, methane generation potential ($L_0$) and methane generation rate constant (k). The parameters were determined by the statistical comparison of predicted gas generation rate data using the two models and actual landfill gas collection data. The values of r-square obtained from regression analysis between two data showed that one model by differentiating the Modified Gompetz was 0.92 and the other model by differentiating the Logistic was 0.94. From this result, the estimation methods showed that $L_0$ and k values can be determined by regression analysis if landfill gas collection data are available. Also, new models based on two models obtained by differentiating the Modified Gompertz and Logistic models were developed to predict greenhouse gas generation from solid waste landfills that actual landfill generation data could not be available. They showed better prediction than LandGEM model. Frequency distribution of the ratio of Qcs (LFG collection system) to Q (prediction value) was used to evaluate the accuracy of the models. The new models showed higher accuracy than LandGEM model. Thus, it is concluded that the models developed in this research are suitable for the prediction of greenhouse gas generation from solid waste landfills.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.1661-1670
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• 2016

In this paper, we present a risk prediction system and customized evacuation pathfinding algorithm in fire scenarios. For the risk prediction, we apply a multi-level clustering mechanism using collected temperature at sensor nodes throughout the network in order to predict the temperature at the time that users actually evacuate. Based on the predicted temperature and its reliability, we suggest an evacuation pathfinding algorithm that finds a suitable evacuation path from a user's current location to the safest exit. Simulation results based on FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator) of NIST for a wireless sensor network consisting of 47 stationary nodes for 1436.41 seconds show that our proposed prediction system achieves a higher accuracy by a factor of 1.48. Particularly for nodes in the most reliable group, it improves the accuracy by a factor of up to 4.21. Also, the customized evacuation pathfinding based on our prediction algorithm performs closely with that of the ground-truth temperature in terms of the ratio of safe nodes on the selected path, while outperforming the shortest-path evacuation with a factor of up to 12% in terms of a safety measure.