KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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v.36
no.5
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pp.791-803
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2016
Recently, frequency of extreme rainfall events in South Korea has been substantially increased due to the enhanced climate variability. Korea is prone to flooding due to being surrounded by mountains, along with high rainfall intensity during a short period. In the past three decades, an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events has been observed due to enhanced climate variability and climate change. This study aimed to analyze extreme rainfalls informed by their frequency of occurrences using a long-term rainfall data. In this respect, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution (Poisson-GPD) based rainfall frequency method which allows us to simultaneously explore changes in the amount and exceedance probability of the extreme rainfall events defined by different thresholds. Additionally, this study utilized a Bayesian approach to better estimate both parameters and their uncertainties. We also investigated the synoptic patterns associated with the extreme events considered in this study. The results showed that the Poisson-GPD based design rainfalls were rather larger than those of based on the Gumbel distribution. It seems that the Poisson-GPD model offers a more reasonable explanation in the context of flood safety issue, by explicitly considering the changes in the frequency. Also, this study confirmed that low and high pressure system in the East China Sea and the central North Pacific, respectively, plays crucial roles in the development of the extreme rainfall in South Korea.
According to recent researches on climate change, the global warming is obvious to increase rainfall intensity. Damage caused by extreme hydrologic events due to global change is steadily getting bigger and bigger. Recently, frequently occurring heavy rainfalls surely affect the trend of rainfall observations. Probability precipitation estimation method used in designing and planning hydrological resources assumes that rainfall data is stationary. The stationary probability precipitation estimation method could be very weak to abnormal rainfalls occurred by climate change, because stationary probability precipitation estimation method cannot reflect increasing trend of rainfall intensity. This study analyzed temporal variation of trend in rainfall time series at 51 stations which are not significant for statistical trend tests. After modeling rainfall time series with maintaining observed statistical characteristics, this study also estimated whether rainfall data is significant for the statistical trend test in near future. It was found that 13 stations among sample stations will have trend within 10 years. The results indicate that non-stationary probability precipitation estimation method must be applied to sufficiently consider increase trend of rainfall.
Kim, Seongwon;Jeong, Anchul;Lee, Giha;Jung, Kwansue
Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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v.19
no.12
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pp.15-23
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2018
The occurrence of soil erosions in Korea is mostly driven by flowing water which has a close relationship with rainfalls. The soil eroded by rainfalls flows into and deposits in the river and it polluted the water resources and making the rivers become difficult to be managed. Recently, the frequency of heavy rainfall events that are more than 30 mm/hr has been increasing in Korea due to the influence of climate change, which creating a favourable condition for the occurrence of soil erosion within a short time. In this study, we proposed a method to estimate the distribution of rainfall intensity and to calculate the energy produced by a single rainfall event using the cumulative distribution function that take into account of the physical characteristics of rainfall. The raindrops kinetic energy estimated by the proposed method are compared with the measured data from the previous studies and it is noticed that the raindrops kinetic energy estimated by the rainfall intensity variation is very similar to the results concluded from the previous studies. In order to develop an equation for estimating rainfall kinetic energy, rainfall particle size data measured at a rainfall intensity of 0.254~152.4 mm/hr were used. The rainfall kinetic energy estimated by applying the cumulative distribution function tended to increase in the form of a power function in the relation of rainfall intensity. Based on the equation obtained from this relationship, the rainfall kinetic energy of 1~80 mm/hr rainfall intensity was estimated to be $0.03{\sim}48.26Jm^{-2}mm^{-1}$. Based on the relationship between rainfall intensity and rainfall energy, rainfall kinetic energy equation is proposed as a power function form and it is expected that it can be used in the design of short-term operated facility such as the sizing of sedimentation basin that requires prediction of soil loss by a single rainfall event.
Kim, Min ji;Kim, Ji Eun;Park, Kyung Woon;Kim, Tae-Woong
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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v.42
no.3
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pp.333-342
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2022
Due to climate change, increased heavy rainfalls result in flood damage every year. To investigate the storm-runoff reduction effects of Low Impact Development (LID), this study performed runoff analyses using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for past and future representative storm events of the Yongdu Rainwater Pumping Station basin. As a result, the infiltration loss for representative future rainfalls increased by 3.17 %, and the surface runoff and peak runoff rate increased significantly by 32.50 %, and 128.77 %, respectively. To reduce the increased surface runoff and peak runoff rates, this study investigated the applicability of LID approaches, including a permeable pavement, green roof, and rain garden, by adjusting the LID parameters and the ratio of installation area. We identified the ranges of LID parameters that decreased peak runoff rate and surface runoff, and increased infiltration. In addition, when the application ratio of permeable pavement, green roof, and rain garden was 2:1:3, best performance was attained, leading to a reduction of peak runoff of 26.85 %, infiltration loss 12.01 %, surface runoff 15.11 %, and storage 509.47 %. Based on analyzing the effect of storm runoff reductions for various return periods, it was found that as the return period increased, the proportion of peak runoff and surface runoff increased and the proportion of infiltration loss and storage decreased.
Lee, Seungmin;Baek, Seonuk;Lee, Junhak;Kim, Kyungtak;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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v.56
no.4
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pp.261-272
/
2023
In recent years, natural disasters such as heavy rainfall and typhoons have occurred more frequently, and their severity has increased due to climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) currently uses the same criteria for all regions in Korea for watch and warning based on the maximum cumulative rainfall with durations of 3-hour and 12-hour to reduce damage. However, KMA's criteria do not consider the regional characteristics of damages caused by heavy rainfall and typhoon events. In this regard, it is necessary to develop new criteria considering regional characteristics of damage and cumulative rainfalls in durations, establishing four stages: blue, yellow, orange, and red. A classification model, called DSCM (Disaster Severity Classification Model), for the four-stage disaster severity was developed using four machine learning models (Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost). This study applied DSCM to local governments of Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province province. To develop DSCM, we used data on rainfall, cumulative rainfall, maximum rainfalls for durations of 3-hour and 12-hour, and antecedent rainfall as independent variables, and a 4-class damage scale for heavy rain damage and typhoon damage for each local government as dependent variables. As a result, the Decision Tree model had the highest accuracy with an F1-Score of 0.56. We believe that this developed DSCM can help identify disaster risk at each stage and contribute to reducing damage through efficient disaster management for local governments based on specific events.
PARK, Jong-Young;LEE, Jung-Sik;LEE, Jin-Deok;LEE, Won-Woo
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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v.21
no.1
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pp.12-22
/
2018
In order to improve the vulnerability of current cities due to climate change, the disaster vulnerability analysis manual for various disasters is provided. Depending on the spatial units, the disaster vulnerability levels, and the conditions of the climatic factors, the results of the disaster vulnerability analysis will have a significant impact. In this study, relative assessments are conducted by adding the eup, myeon and dong unit in addition to census output area unit to analyze the impact on the spatial unit, and relative changes are analyzed according to the classification stages by expanding the natural classification, which is standardized at level four stage, to level two, four and six stage. The maximum rainfalls(10min, 60min, 24hr) are added for the two limited rainfall characteristics to determine the relativity of disaster vulnerable districts by index. The relative assessment results of heavy rainfall vulnerability index showed that the area ratio of disaster areas by spatial unit was different and the correlation analysis showed that the space analysis between the eup, myeon and dong unit in addition to census output area unit was not consistent. And it can be seen that the proportion of disaster vulnerable districts is relatively different a lot due to indexes of rainfall characteristics, spatial unit analysis and disaster vulnerability level stage. Based on the above results, it can be seen that the ratios of disaster vulnerable districts differ relatively significantly due to the level of the disaster vulnerability class, and the indexes of rainfall characteristics. This suggests that the impact of the disaster vulnerable districts depending on indexes is relatively large, and more detailed indexes should be selected when setting up the disaster vulnerabilities analysis index.
Chang-Hoi Ho;Byung-Gon Kim;Baek-Min Kim;Doo-Sun R. Park;Chang-Kyun Park;Seok-Woo Son;Jee-Hoon Jeong;Dong-Hyun Cha
Atmosphere
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v.33
no.2
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pp.223-246
/
2023
This paper summarized the research papers on weather extremes that occurred in the Republic of Korea, which were published in the domestic and foreign journals during 1963~2022. Weather extreme is defined as a weather phenomenon that causes serious casualty and property loss; here, it includes typhoon, heavy rain, drought, heat wave, cold surge, heavy snow, and strong gust. Based on the 2011~2020 statistics in Korea, above 80% of property loss due to all natural disasters were caused by typhoons and heavy rainfalls. However, the impact of the other weather extremes can be underestimated rather than we have actually experienced; the property loss caused by the other extremes is hard to be quantitatively counted. Particularly, as global warming becomes serious, the influence of drought and heat wave has been increasing. The damages caused by cold surges, heavy snow, and strong gust occurred over relatively local areas on short-term time scales compared to other weather hazards. In particularly, strong gust accompanied with drought may result in severe forest fires over mountainous regions. We hope that the present review paper may remind us of the importance of weather extremes that directly affect our lives.
The collapses of retaining walls or embankments, the soil erosion and landslides around urban areas are occurring by heavy rainfalls because of the recent climate change. This study conducts the soil erosion modeling, while applying the spatial information such as soil maps, DEM and landcover maps to the RUSLE model. Especially this study draws up the soil erosion grade map and the unit soil erosion grade map by parcels through coupling the soil erosion with the cadastral map, and by that can calculate the number of parcels by soil erosion grades. Also the sediment disaster information system based on the mobile GIS is developed to identify the soil erosion grades of site in the urban plannings and the construction fields. The sediment disaster information system can identify the present conditions of the registers of lands, buildings and roads, and confirm the RUSLE factors, the soil erosion, the sediment disaster grades by parcels. Also it is anticipated that this system can support the sediment disaster work of site effectively through searching the locations and attributes of the specific parcels by Administrative Dong and the soil erosion grades.
Coliforms is currently being used as the standard of environmental water qualify to evaluate the level of source water quality especially condition of fecal contamination. However, not properly applied to water quality management. So in this study, in addition to Coliforms, fecal contamination indicator bacteria turk at Feral Coliforms(FC), E. coli, Fecal streptococci(FS), Clostridium and environmental parameters related with it's distribution were investigated on a monthly basis in 6 water intakes of Han River. The mean of BOD, DO, SS and pH, benchmarks of source water management were maintained the second grade of environmental water quality standard applied to Han River but Coliforms exceeded it. Distribution of Coliforms ranged from 1.0×10¹ to 2.7 10/sup 5/ CFU/ml, FC ranged from ND to 5.3×10¹ CFU/ml, E. coli ranged from ND to 9.2×10¹ CFU/ml, FS ranged from ND to 2.5×10¹CFU/ml, they were steepy rise on July and August in common when rainfalls was heavy and water temperature was high, but Clostridium perfringens ranged from 1.7×10¹to 1.7×10¹CFU/ml not fluctuate by month. Statistical analysis of sampling data showed that most significant correlations occurred among FC and Coliforms(r = 0.840), E. coli(r = 0.792), FS(r = 0.687) and environmental parameters(temperature, turbidity, SS, rotor were all r > 0.60) while no significant correlation was observed between ammonia generally recognized fecal contamination indicator and bacteria. Identification of the coliforms showed that Enterobacter, Klebsiella, Citrobacter were comprised of 32%, 24%, 16% respectively, and E. coli were 7% of it. while E. coli was made up 85.9% of FC. The mean value of FC/Coliforms ratio, 5.2(0.1-42) were higher in Amsa, Guui than Jayang. Fecal coliforms, as those are able to reflect more particularly the extent of the fecal contamination, were considered useful in deciding the level of water treatment while monitoring the fecal contamination from the source of water supply. Therefore, it is expected that the water quality is going to be managed more efficiently by using fecal coliforms supplementarily to total coliforms which are current standard item of water-quality environment.
Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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v.15
no.4
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pp.441-455
/
1999
Meteorological characteristics of three high-ozone episodes in the Greater Seoul Area, selected on the basis of morning-average wind direction and speed for the 1990~1997 period, were investigated. Three high-ozone episodes thus selected were seven days of July 3~9, 1992, nine days of July 21~29, 1994, and three days of August 22~24, 1994. Along with surface meteorological data from the Seoul Weather Station, surface and 850-hPa wind fields over the Northest Asia around the Korean Peninsula were used for the analysis. In the July 1992 episode, westerly winds were most frequent as a result of the influence of a high-pressure system in the west behind the trough. In contrast, in the July 1994 episode, easterly winds were most frequent due to the effect of a typhoon moving north from the south of Japan. Despite different prevailing wind directions in the two episodes, the peak ozone concentration of each episode always occurred when a sea-land breeze developed in association with weak synoptic forcing. The August 1994 episode, selected as being representative of calm conditions, was another typical example in which peak ozone concentration rose to 322 ppb under the well-developed sea-land breeze. All three high-ozone episodes were terminated by precipitation, and subsequent rises in ozone concentrations were also suppressed by a series of precipitation afterwards. In particular, two heavy rainfalls were the main reason why the August 1994 episode, with the highest and second-highest ozone concentrations during the 1990~1997 period, lasted for only a few days.
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