• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.81-88
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• 2010

최근 들어 기상 이변에 따라 단시간 동안에 특정 소유역에 집중하는 호우 또는 초과우량에 의한 국지성 돌발홍수가 빈번히 발생함에 따라, 이로 인한 인명과 재산의 상당한 위험과 손실은 전 세계적인 것으로서 우리나라도 증가일로에 있다. 돌발홍수는 일반적으로 급경사 소유역에서 집중적인 강우에 의해 발생하여 빠른 유출과 토석류를 동반하기 때문에, 홍수피해를 대비하기 위한 사전 홍수예보시간이 부족할 정도로 급격히 빠른 홍수의 특성을 보인다. 본 연구의 목적은 대상유역의 확률강우량으로부터 돌발홍수지수(flash flood index, FFI)를 산정하여 돌발홍수의 심각성 정도를 정량적으로 분석하고자 한다. 특히 미계측 유역하천에서의 지역 홍수예 경보를 위한 기초자료를 제공할 수 있도록, 대상유역에 대하여 상대적인 돌발홍수심도를 제시할 수 있는 FFI-D-F(돌발홍수지수-지속시간-빈도) 관계곡선을 개발하였다. 또한 FFI-D-F 관계곡선은 현존 및 계획 방재시설물의 돌발홍수 대응능력 및 잔여홍수위험 평가에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.1871-1885
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 다양한 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 GCM으로부터 생산된 기상자료를 이용하여 남한지역 미래가뭄의 시공간적인 분포를 전망하였다. 가뭄을 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)를 가뭄지수로 이용하였으며 가뭄빈도해석을 통하여 54개 기상관측소별 SDF(Severity-Duration-Fraquency) 곡선을 유도하여 남한지역의 지속기간별, 재현기간별 가뭄우심지역을 지도화하였다. 가뭄우심도에 의한 미래 가뭄전망 결과, 낙동강, 섬진강 유역이 과거와 동일하게 다른 유역에 비하여 가뭄이 심화될 것으로 전망되었으며 한강유역 역시 가뭄이 심화될 것으로 나타났다. 미래의 경우 A2 시나리오에서는 과거에 비해 낙동강 동해 유역에도 가뭄이 심화되는 지역이 확장되는 것으로 나타났으며 RCP8.5 시나리오에서는 중부지역에 위치한 한강유역의 가뭄이 심화될 것으로 예측되었다. 연구결과를 통해 미래 가뭄은 과거와 같이 남부지방에 국한되지 않고 한반도 전역에 걸쳐 광범위하게 나타날 것으로 전망되었고 기후변화 시나리오별, 기후모델별로 다소의 전망 차이를 나타내었다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.17-22
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 지진해일에 의한 원자력발전소의 확률론적 안전성 평가를 위하여 필수적으로 도출해야 하는 지진해일 재해도 곡선을 도출하기 위한 연구를 수행하였다. 1900년도 이후에 기록된 동해안에서의 지진해일 기록과 1900년도 이전에 역사지진기록에서 찾을 수 있는 지진해일 기록을 이용하여 지진해일에 의한 최대파고에 대한 재현주기를 산정하고자 하였다. Power law, upper-truncated power law 그리고 지수함수에 의해서 추세선을 작성하였으며 그 결과를 비교하였다. 동해안에서 발생한 지진해일의 기록이 10건 내외에 불과하므로 기록에 의한 지진해일 재해도 곡선추정 연구에 제한이 있으나 국내에는 지진해일의 재해도곡선 추정에 관한 연구가 전무한 현실이므로 지진해일 확률론적 안전성 평가를 위한 초석을 놓은 것으로 판단된다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.471-493
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• 2013

This paper presents a framework for seismic damage evaluation for Algerian buildings adapted from HAZUS approach (Hazard-United States). Capacity and fragility curves were adapted to fit the Algerian building typologies (Reinforced Concrete structures, Confined or Non-Confined Masonry, etc). For prediction purposes, it aims to estimate the damages and potential losses that may be generated by a given earthquake in a prone area or country. Its efficiency is validated by comparing the estimated and observed damages in Boumerd$\grave{e}$s city, in the aftermath of Boumerd$\grave{e}$s earthquake (Algeria: May $21^{st}$ 2003; $M_w$ = 6.8). For this purpose, observed damages reported for almost 3,700 buildings are compared to the theoretical predictions obtained under two distinct modelling of the seismic hazard. In one hand, the site response spectrum is built according to real accelerometric records obtained during the main shock. In the other hand, the effective Algerian seismic code response spectrum (RPA 99) in use by the time of the earthquake is considered; it required the prior fitting of Boumerd$\grave{e}$s site PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) provided by Ambraseys' attenuation relationship.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.89-97
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 현재 및 미래기후에서의 가뭄심도-영향면적-지속기간 곡선의 비교를 통하여 극한 가뭄사상의 시공간적 거동에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 살펴보았다. 미래기후는 CGCM3.1-T63과 CSIRO-MK3.0으로부터 획득되었다. 분석 결과 CGCM3.1-T63의 경우에는 미래가뭄이 현재와 비슷할 것으로 예측되었으나, CSIRO-MK3.0의 경우에는 연강수량 총량의 변화가 거의 없음에도 불구하고 미래가뭄이 현재보다 더 극심해질 것으로 예측되었다. 이에 따라 현재의 수자원 공급 시스템에 대한 기후변화 취약성 평가가 시급함을 제시하고 있다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.285-295
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• 2018

In this study, the effect of local site conditions (site class and site amplifications) and structural variability are investigated on fragility functions of typical building structures. The study area is chosen as Eastern Turkey. The fragility functions are developed using site-specific uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The site-specific UHS is obtained based on simulated ground motions. The implementation of ground motion simulation into seismic hazard assessment has the advantage of investigating detailed local site effects. The typical residential buildings in Erzincan are represented by equivalent single degree of freedom systems (ESDOFs). Predictive equations are accomplished for structural seismic demands of ESDOFs to derive fragility functions in a straightforward manner. To study the sensitivity of fragility curves to site class, two sites on soft and stiff soil are taken into account. Two alternative site amplification functions known as generic and theoretical site amplifications are examined for these two sites. The reinforced concrete frames located on soft soil display larger fragilities than those on stiff soil. Theoretical site amplification mostly leads to larger fragilities than generic site amplification more evidently for reinforced concrete buildings. Additionally, structural variability of ESDOFs is generally observed to increase the fragility especially for rigid structural models.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권5호
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• pp.699-706
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• 2014

The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권7호
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• pp.2396-2406
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• 2021

The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center has been developing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) methodology, which is based on explicit determination of performance, e.g., monetary losses, in a probabilistic manner where uncertainties in earthquake ground motion, structural response, damage estimation, and losses are explicitly considered. To carry out the PEER PBEE procedure for a component of the nuclear power plant (NPP) such as the cable tray system, hazard curve and spectra were defined for two hazard levels of the ground motions, namely, operation basis earthquake, and safe shutdown earthquake. Accordingly, two sets of spectral compatible ground motions were selected for dynamic analysis of the cable tray system. In general, the PBEE analysis of the cable tray in NPP was introduced where the resulting floor motions from the time history analysis (THA) of the NPP structure should be used as the input motion to the cable tray. However, for simplicity, a finite element model of the cable tray was developed for THA under the effect of the selected ground motions. Based on the structural analysis results, fragility curves were generated in terms of specific engineering demand parameters. Loss analysis was performed considering monetary losses corresponding to the predefined damage states. Then, overall losses were evaluated for different damage groups using the PEER PBEE methodology.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권12호
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• pp.7117-7120
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• 2013

Background: This study hypothesized living in a poor neighborhood decreased the cause specific survival in individuals suffering from carcinoid carcinomas. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) carcinoid carcinoma data were used to identify potential socioeconomic disparities in outcome. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socioeconomic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for carcinoid carcinomas. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze time to events and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to compare survival curves. The Cox proportional hazard method was employed for multivariate analysis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were computed to screen the predictors for further analysis. Results: There were 38,546 patients diagnosed from 1973 to 2009 included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 68.1 (70.7) months. SEER stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.79). 16.4% of patients were un-staged. Race/ethnicity, rural urban residence and county level family income were significant predictors of cause specific survival on multivariate analysis, these accounting for about 5% of the difference in actuarial cause specific survival at 20 years of follow up. Conclusions: This study found poorer cause specific survival of carcinoid carcinomas of individuals living in poor and rural neighborhoods.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.101-117
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• 2014

This paper presents a reliability-based analysis on seismic performance of timber-steel hybrid shear wall systems. Such system is composed of steel moment resisting frame and infill wood frame shear wall. The performance criteria of the hybrid system with respect to different seismic hazard levels were determined through a damage assessment process, and the effectiveness of the infill wood shear walls on improving the seismic performance of the hybrid systems was evaluated. Performance curves were obtained by considering different target non-exceedance probabilities, and design charts were further established as a function of seismic weight. Wall drift responses and shear forces in wood-steel bolted connections were used as performance criteria in establishing the performance curves to illustrate the proposed design procedure. It was found that the presence of the infill wood shear walls significantly reduced the non-performance probabilities of the hybrid wall systems. This study provides performance-based seismic evaluations on the timber-steel hybrid shear walls in support of future applications of such hybrid systems in multi-story buildings.