• Architectural research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.41-48
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• 2008

Construction projects have frequently exceeded their schedule despite reliable estimates at the start of a project. This problem was attributed to unpredictable causes at the beginning and to shortage of proper tools to accurately predict project completion date. To supplement this difficulty, project managers need a comprehensive system that can be employed to monitor the progress of an ongoing project and to evaluate potential delay for achieving the goal on time. This paper proposed a progressive-based expert system for quantitative assessments of project delay at the early stages of the execution. Furthermore, the system is used to inspect the change of the uncertainty on completion date and its magnitude. The proposed expert system is helpful for furnishing project managers a warning signal as a project is going behind schedule and for tracking the changed uncertainty at a desired confidence level. The main objectives of this paper are to offer a new system to overcome the difficulties of conventional forecasting tools and to apply a construction project into the system to illustrate its effectiveness. This paper focuses on construction phase of project development and is intended for the use by project managers.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.60-66
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• 2010

In the view of robust design optimization, RAE2822 airfoil was designed to achieve not only the maximum lift-to-drag ratio but also insensitivity of that. While the RAE2822 is flying at the cruise speed, Mach variation is considered as the operational uncertainty. In order to explore the design space, metamodels were introduced instead of consecutively computing the gradient. Also a metamodel was used to represent the sigma space. Using the metamodel, an optimum value was searched in the view of global optimization.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.149-165
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• 2014

This paper has studied whether cultural factors have an effect on privacy concern of Internet users in Korea and China. The result has shown that power distance, individualism, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation are positively related to privacy concern, while masculinity is negatively related to privacy concern. This study has also found some similarities and differences between the two countries. First, privacy concern of Korean Internet users is significantly higher than that of Chinese users. Second, individualism and uncertainty avoidance significantly affect privacy concern in both Korea and China, although individualism in Korea has stronger effect than that in China. Third, long term orientation has a significant effect in only Korea while power distance is significant only in China. These results suggest that an online company doing businesses in multiple countries should have country-specific privacy policies to deal with the privacy concern of Internet users in different countries.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.153-167
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• 2011

Traditional design methods of bearing capacity of shallow foundations are deterministic in the sense that they do not explicitly consider the inherent uncertainty associated with the factors affecting bearing capacity. To account for such uncertainty, available deterministic methods rather employ a fixed global factor of safety that may lead to inappropriate bearing capacity predictions. An alternative stochastic approach is essential to provide a more rational estimation of bearing capacity. In this paper, the likely distribution of predicted bearing capacity of strip footings subjected to vertical loads is obtained using a stochastic approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach accounts for the uncertainty associated with the soil shear strength parameters: cohesion, c, and friction angle, ${\phi}$, and the cross correlation between c and ${\phi}$. A set of stochastic design charts that assure target reliability levels of 90% and 95%, are developed for routine use by practitioners. The charts negate the need for a factor of safety and provide a more reliable indication of what the actual bearing capacity might be.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.234-239
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• 2003

In recent decades, many countries have introduced competition in the electricity industry. Now, unit commitment becomes not a problem to be solved by a monopoly company but the one to be tackled by each generation company(GENCO). Its aim has been altered from the global cost minimization to the each GENCO's profit maximization. In this paper, the author proposes the scheme of unit commitment of a GENCO to maximize profit considering the uncertainty of market clearing price. The type of the assumed market is a uniform price market. A genetic algorithm is used for the maximization of the profit.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.15 no.8
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• pp.1-12
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• 2024

Purpose: Marketing networks are essential for firms to gain new information and resources, yet their effect on innovation performance under uncertainty remains unclear. This study aims to elucidate the effects of technological and demand variability on the innovation performance of first-tier suppliers, considering different levels of structural holes. It particularly explores how structural holes moderate the relationship between uncertain factors and innovation performance. Research design, data and methodology: To assess the hypotheses, a survey was conducted with the first-tier suppliers. The survey targeted internal networks and the relationships between manufacturers, suppliers, and subsuppliers. Structural equation modeling was employed to validate the hypotheses using measures from previous research. Results: The findings indicate that the impact of technological uncertainty and demand variability on innovation performance varies based on the extent of structural holes in the network. Conclusions: This study provides both theoretical and practical insights for distribution channels, highlighting the competitive advantage of interfirm networks in uncertain conditions. However, the focus on the engineering industry may limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research should explore a broader range of industries to improve result applicability.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1067-1078
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• 2018

Water resources projection typically consists of several stages including emission scenarios, global circulation models (GCMs), downscaling techniques, and hydrological models, and each stage is a source of total uncertainty in water resources projection. Several studies proposed methods to quantify the relative contribution of each stage to total uncertainty, and we call such analysis uncertainty decomposition. Uncertainty decomposition enables us to investigate the stages yielding large uncertainties and to establish the uncertainty reduction plan that reflects them. Interactions between stages is one of the important issues to be considered in uncertainty decomposition. This study suggests a new uncertainty decomposition method considering interaction effect. The proposed method has an advantage of decomposing the total uncertainty to the uncertainty from each stage considering both the main and interactions effects. We apply the proposed method to streamflow projection for Chungju Dam basin. The results show that the uncertainties from the main effects are larger than the uncertainties from interaction effects in both summer and winter. Using the proposed uncertainty decomposition method, we show that the GCM stage is the largest source of the total uncertainty in summer and the downscaling technique stage is the one in winter among the following four stages: emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling techniques, and hydrological models.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.153-166
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• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.40-40
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• 2009

Construction firms have long sought success in the global construction market through diversifying revenue sources and project portfolios. The volume of international contracts has contributed to firms' sustained growth by mitigating the impact of the domestic market's cyclical nature. In spite of the importance of international construction, the uncertainty and dynamic changes surrounding global construction pose serious threats to global contactors. Over the last decade, the international construction industry has changed drastically in many ways, particularly including financial resource diversity, competition rules for the selection of contractors, and the terms of delivery systems requiring more competent total service providers. This paper investigates the important changes for global contractors through various documentation analysis as well as in-depth interviews with industry experts. This paper then analyzes the common strategies and lessons obtained from the cases of leading global contractors that have sustained their growth in the competitive global construction during the last decade. In addition, the authors further analyzed the comparisons between those firms and Korean contractors to discern any difference in sustaining their growth in the competitive market. It was found that those leading firms were quite proactive and responsive to changing markets by diversifying their market revenues to stabilize their revenue structure and enhancing their competency through a wide range of 'business convergence'. In addition, they significantly increased their upstream/downstream functional capabilities; hence becoming more competent service providers, able to grow in these rapidly changing market conditions. Finally, this paper benchmarks the critical strategies that support growth, which in turn can provide a strategic guideline for expansion into the global construction market.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.462-468
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• 2019

Offshore oil production faces several difficulties caused by oil price decline and unexpected changes in the global petroleum logistics. This paper suggests a stochastic model for optimizing the offshore oil production under uncertainty. The proposed model incorporates robust optimization and restricted recourse framework, and uses the lower partial mean as the measure of variability of the recourse profit. Some computational experiments and results based on the proposed model using scenario-based data on the crude oil price and demand under uncertainty are examined and presented. This study would be meaningful in decision-making for the offshore oil production problem considering risks under uncertainty.