• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.541-554
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• 2014

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and 2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and $4.6^{\circ}C$ in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about $0.3mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP4.5 scenario and $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The $2^{nd}$ mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above $30^{\circ}C$ per year ($DAY_{TX30}$) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above $20mm\;day^{-1}$ per year ($DAY_{PR20}$) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.187-194
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• 2011

This study analyzed the A1B climate change scenario provided by National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Korea, to investigate potential climate changes in watersheds of 15 multi-purpose dams in South Korea. The A1B climate change scenario is produced by Regional Climate Model (RCM) with 27 km horizontal grid spacings using a one-way nesting technique with Global Climate Model (GCM). Relative to present climate conditions (1971~ 2000), the modeled 10-year averaged daily temperatures at the watersheds of the 15 multi-purpose dams continuously increased to year 2100, whereas precipitation changes were varied regionally (north, central, and south regions of South Korea). At two watersheds located in Gangwon-province (north region), the modeled temporal variations of precipitation rapidly increased in the 2090's after a slow decrease that had occurred since the 2050's. At seven watersheds in the central region, including Gyeongsangbuk-province to Jeollanam-province, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increase showed 10-year periodic changes. At six watersheds in the south region, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increased since the 2070's after a rapid decrease in the 2060's. Compared to the climate conditions of the late of 20th century (1971~2000), the number of rainy days and precipitation intensity increased (3% and 6~12%, respectively) in the late 21st century (2071~2100). The frequency of precipitation events tended to increase with precipitation intensity in all regions. The frequency of heavy precipitation events (>50 mm $d^{-1}$) increased with >100% in the north region, 60~100% in the central region, and 20~60% in the south region.

• Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.53-70
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• 2014

This study was performed in order to suggest the future model of Asian universities that could be used in the planning of the global competitive strategy. Futurologists forecasted the future of higher education using Harman Fan Scenario as like this. First, most current universities will be 'the satellite university' until 2015. Second, they also will replace 'the bookless university' until 2020. Third, they will be 'no calendar university' until 2025. And then they may be 'all have access university' until 2030. After 2030, futurologists prospected that almost universities based on off-line campus will be disappeared into the history. The analysis method of Harman fan scenario and applied scenarios were also used to "A study on the future scenario of Korean university". The predictive model and the alternative models were explored in a view point of students, enterprise, and government. Individuality with educational excellence are standardized for learner, profit and effectiveness are applied for enterpriser, and equality with welfare are adapted for national leader. Asian universities need to focus on bringing up the practical ability based on conscious and emotional education instead of knowledge based on memory. Also they need to enforce the specialized education that can create new jobs through convergence of interdisciplinary. Especially, Asian nations need to explore, to find the strengthen area of their universities compared with USA. And these area should be specialized. The convergency strategy between oriental medicine and informatics is a meaningful sample. Based on this point, a predicted with 3 alternative scenarios in a view point of equality were suggested for the future of Asian universities.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.3B
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• pp.269-276
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• 2010

Climatic disasters are globally soaring due to recent acceleration of global warming. Especially the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfalls is increasing since the rainfall intensity is increasing due to the change of rainfall pattern, This study proposed the non-stationary frequency analysis for estimating design rainfalls in a design target year, considering the change of rainfall pattern through the climatic change scenario. The annual rainfalls, which are regionally downscaled from the BCM2 (A2 scenario) and NCEP data using a K-NN method, were used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution in a design target year, based on the relationship between annual mean rainfalls and distribution parameters. A Gumbel distribution with a probability weighted method was used in this study. Seoul rainfall data, which are the longest observations in Korea, were used to verified the proposed method. Then, rainfall data at 7 stations, which have statistical trends in observations in 2006, were used to estimate the design rainfalls in 2020. The results indicated that the regional annual rainfalls, which were estimated through the climate change scenario, significantly affect on the design rainfalls in future.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.131-141
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• 2013

Many studies have related the recent variations of wildfire regime such as the increasing number of occurrances, their patterns and timing changes, and the severity of their extreme cases with global warming. However, there are only a few numbers of wildfire studies to assess how the future wildfire regime will change in the interactions between land and atmosphere with climate change especially over East Asia. This study was performed to estimate the future changing aspect of wildfire danger with global warming, using Haines Index (HI). Calculated from atmospheric instability and dryness, HI is the potential of an existing fire to become a dangerous wildfire. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two separated 5-year simulations of current (1995~1999) and far future (2095~2099) were performed and analyzed. Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) model outputs were utilized for the model inputs for the past and future over East Asia; future prediction was driven under the IPCC A1B scenario. The results indicate changes of the wildfire danger regime, showing overall decreasing the wildfire danger in the future but intensified regional deviations between north and south. The overall changes of the wildfire regime seems to stem from atmospheric dryness which is sensitive to soil moisture variation. In some locations, the future wildfire danger overall decreases in summer but increases in winter or fall when the actual fire occurrence are generally peaked especially in South China.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.393-402
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• 2018

While interacting with a sloping structure, an ice floe may fracture in different patterns. For example, it can be local bending failure or global splitting failure depending on the contact properties, geometry and confinement of the ice floe. Modelling these different fracture patterns as a natural outcome of numerical simulations is rather challenging. This is mainly because the effects of crack propagation, crack branching, multi fracturing modes and eventual fragmentation within a solid material are still questions to be answered by the on-going research in the Computational Mechanic community. In order to simulate the fracturing of ice floes with arbitrary geometries and confinement; and also to simulate the fracturing events at such a large scale yet with sufficient efficiency, we propose a semi-analytical/empirical and semi-numerical approach; but with focus on the global splitting failure mode in this paper. The simulation method is validated against data we collected during the Oden Arctic Technology Research Cruise 2015 (OATRC2015). The data include: 1) camera images based on which we specify the exact geometry of ice floes before and after an impact and fracturing event; 2) IMU data based on which the global dynamic force encountered by the icebreaker is extracted for the impact event. It was found that this method presents reasonably accurate results and realistic fracturing patterns upon given ice floes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.623-634
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• 2000

This study describes results of numerical simulations on river flow response due to global warming. Forecasts of changes in climatic conditions are required to estimate the hydrologic effects of increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere. However, reliable forecasts of regional climate change are unavailable. In there absence, various approaches to the development of scenarios of future climatic conditions are used. The approach in this study is to prescribe climatic changes for a river basin in a simplified manner. As a rule, such scenarios specify air temperature increases from $0^{\circ}C\;to\;4.0^{\circ}C$ and precipitation change (increase or decrease) in the range of 0% to 15%. On the basis of acceptable supposition of warming scenarios. future daily streamflow is simulated using rainfall-runoff model in the Andong Dam basin. The numerical experiments have quantitatively revealed the change of discharge at 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2050 for each warming scenarios and compared it with the results for a non-warmmg scenano.cenano.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.112-123
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• 2018

The C-ARS(Cooperative Automated Roadway System) refers to a road infrastructure system that links automated vehicles with road infrastructure and communicates with each other via V2X communication to support automated vehicles. The purpose of this study is to suggest a performance evaluation method of C-ARS service. This study exemplifies the 'Work zone information service' among I2V service that provide information to automated vehicles in road infrastructure. First, we define the requirements and service scope needed to check the use case analysis and service performance of the service, and propose an evaluation system for performance evaluation of these services. In addition, the evaluation system was used to verify the feasibility of evaluation through the field test of 'Work zone information service'.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.251-254
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• 2002

In the design of mobile wireless communication system, the location of BTS(Base Transciver Stations), RSC(Base Station Controllers), and MSC(Mobile Switching Center) is one of the most important parameters. Designing wireless communication system, the cost of equipment is need to be made low by combining various, complex parameters. We can solve this problem by combinatorial optimization algorithm, such as Simulated Annealing, Tabu Search, Genetic Algorithm, Random Walk Algorithm that have been extensively used for global optimization. This paper shows the four kind of algorithms which are applied to the location optimization of BTS, BSC, and MSC in designing mobile communication system and then we compare with these algorithms. And also we analyze the experimental results and shows the optimization process of these algorithms. As a the channel of a CDMA system is shared among several users, the receivers face the problem of multiple-access interference (MAI). Also, the multipath scenario leads to intersymbol interference (ISI). Both components are undesired, but unlike the additive noise process, which is usually completely unpredictable, their space-time structure helps to estimate and remove them.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.269-281
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• 2011

In this review, numerical model results from global and regional climate models are introduced to regional detailed climate changes over East Asia and Korea. In particular, regional climate change scenarios in this region, which are created by several research groups in Korea based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC 4th assessment report are introduced and characteristics of the scenarios are investigated. Despite slight differences in intensity, all scenarios reveal prominent warming over the Korean peninsula in future climate. Changes in precipitation amount vary with given scenarios and periods, but the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation generally tend to increase in all scenarios. South Korea except for mountainous regions is expected to change into subtropical climate in future, which accompanies distinct changes in ecosystems and seasons.