• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.33-56
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper explains how free trade agreements (FTAs) work as a building block to achieve global free trade and be better than other trade regimes. Design/methodology - This paper utilizes a trade liberalization game setup. Three countries choose a trade agreement strategy based on a given trade regime. Trade agreement is made only when all member countries agree. The paper evaluates each trade regime concerning FTAs and customs union (CU) by area size of global free trade equilibrium on the technology or demand gap between countries. Findings - FTAs make global free trade easier. In this game, there are two main reasons for failure to reach global free trade. First, a trade regime with FTAs makes non-member face difficulties in refusing trade agreements in the existence of a technology gap than a trade regime without FTAs. Also, a trade regime with FTAs causes it harder to exclude non-members in the existence of a demand gap than a trade regime with only CUs. Therefore, a trade regime with FTAs can work better in reaching global free trade. Originality/value - The concept of "implicit coordination" was used, which assumes that FTA members keep external tariffs for non-members the same as before an FTA. Without this consideration, FTA members lower their tariffs to non-members, and it makes non-member refuse free trade easier. FTA can prevent it sufficiently only with implicit coordination. This makes the trade regime with FTAs more effective to reach global free trade.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.17-39
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• 2015

This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.217-218
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• 2004

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.147-149
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• 2003

The wetness, a function of precipitation and temperature etc, and the warmth, a function of temperature, are the dominant factor for global vegetation distribution. This paper employs the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), warmth index (WAI), and wetness index (WEI), and focuses on an essential climate-vegetation relationship at global scale. The NDVI was acquired from ‘Twenty-year global 4-minute AVHRR NDVI dataset.’ The WEI is defined as the fraction of the precipitation to the potential evaporation. The WAI was calculated by accumulating the monthly mean temperature of the portion exceeded 5$^{\circ}C$ throughout the year. Meteorological data for the WEI and WAI calculation were obtained from the ISLSCP CD-ROM. All analyses were conducted for 1 ${\times}$ 1 degree grid box on the terrestrial area of the Earth, and on annual value basis averaged in 1987 and 1988. The result of analyses demonstrated that there are two regimes in their relations, that is, a regime in which NDVIs vary depending on the WEI, and a regime in which NDVIs vary depending on the WAI. These two regimes appeared to correspond to the wetness dominant and warmth dominant vegetation, respectively. The geographical distributions of two regimes were mapped. Most of the world vegetation is categorized into wetness dominant, while warmth dominant vegetation is seen in the high-latitude area mainly to the north of 60$^{\circ}$N in the Northern Hemisphere and high-altitude areas.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.203-211
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• 2010

This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.131-141
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• 2013

Many studies have related the recent variations of wildfire regime such as the increasing number of occurrances, their patterns and timing changes, and the severity of their extreme cases with global warming. However, there are only a few numbers of wildfire studies to assess how the future wildfire regime will change in the interactions between land and atmosphere with climate change especially over East Asia. This study was performed to estimate the future changing aspect of wildfire danger with global warming, using Haines Index (HI). Calculated from atmospheric instability and dryness, HI is the potential of an existing fire to become a dangerous wildfire. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two separated 5-year simulations of current (1995~1999) and far future (2095~2099) were performed and analyzed. Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) model outputs were utilized for the model inputs for the past and future over East Asia; future prediction was driven under the IPCC A1B scenario. The results indicate changes of the wildfire danger regime, showing overall decreasing the wildfire danger in the future but intensified regional deviations between north and south. The overall changes of the wildfire regime seems to stem from atmospheric dryness which is sensitive to soil moisture variation. In some locations, the future wildfire danger overall decreases in summer but increases in winter or fall when the actual fire occurrence are generally peaked especially in South China.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.514.1-514.1
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• 2004

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.43 no.11 s.353
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• pp.1-7
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• 2006

This paper consider a code-division multiple-access(CDMA) wireless ad-hoc network in low-SINR regime. In previous research [6], there has been proposed a algorithm for achieving global optimum at high SINR regime, but has not been fully investigated at low-SINR regime. In this paper, we focus on a case where SINR is much smaller than 1, and propose a algorithm that is suitable for low-SINR regime.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.511-517
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• 2013

UNFCCC was adopted in 1992 in order to prevent global warming. However, as a lack of concrete reduction goal and implementation plan, UNFCCC could not have effectiveness. In 1997, Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC was adopted and UNFCCC regime started practically binding on the parties. Global warming takes the leading role in changing marine environment such as the rising of water level and sea water temperature. Also, Ocean plays the vital role in storing carbon to prevent global warming. Meanwhile ships which get the propulsion generated by consuming the fossil fuel are identified as GHG source and the discussions regarding the control of GHG emitted from ships are still in progress in IMO. IMO instrument has some legal conflicts with UNFCCC in principle. Therefore, this paper reviews the present UNFCCC regime and UNCLOS. Also, it surveys activities of IMO and analyze the Amendment to MARPOL73/78 Annex VI which entered into force on January 1, 2013. Finally, conclusions suggest the improvements in order to ensure effectiveness the new Amendment to MARPOL73/78 practically.

• Korea and Global Affairs
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.131-156
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• 2018

This paper is mainly an attempt to approach and rethink regionalism and regional organizations, as a new political phenomenon of our modern world politics, by focusing on the way regime types influence the identity building of Maghreb Arab Unionregional organization in North Africa. The focus of this paper will be on the importance of domestic politics as a non-conventional way of studying regionalism. And unlike many studies of regionalism, generally emphasized by realists and liberalists that focus either on security or economy as an outcome of the old regionalism paradigm, this paper will emphasize domestic politics as a guiding line to understand the regional one.