• Title/Summary/Keyword: global model

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On the Change of Hydrologic Conditions due to Global Warming : 1. An Analysis on the Change of Temperature in Korea Peninsula using Regional Scale Model (지구온난화에 따른 수문환경의 변화와 관련하여 : 1. 국지규모 모형을 이용한 한반도 기온의 변화 분석)

  • An, Jae-Hyeon;Yun, Yong-Nam;Lee, Jae-Su
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.347-356
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    • 2001
  • Even though the increase of greenhouse gases such as $CO_2$ is thought to be the main cause for global warming, its impact on global climate has not been revealed clearly in rather quantitative manners. However, researches using Genral Circulation Model(GCM) has shown that the accumulation of greenhouse gases increases the global mean temperature, which in turn impacts on the global water circulation pattern. A climate predictive capability is limited by lack of understanding of the different process governing the climate and hydrologic systems. The prediction of the complex responses of the fully coupled climate and hydrologic systems can be achieved only through development of models that adequately describe the relevant process at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. These models must ultimately couple the atmospheres, oceans, and lad and will involve many submodels that properly represent the individual processes at work within the coupled components of systems. So far, there are no climate and related hydrologic models except local rainfall-runoff models in Korea. The purpose of this research is to predict the change of temperature in Korean Peninsula using regional scale model(IRSHAM96 model) and GCM data obtained from the increasing scenarios of $CO_2$ Korean Peninsula increased by $2.5^{\circ}C$ and the duration of Winter in $lxCO_2$ condition would be shorter the $2xCo_2$ condition due to global warming.

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The Impact of Satellite Observations on the UM-4DVar Analysis and Prediction System at KMA (위성자료가 기상청 전지구 통합 분석 예측 시스템에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Juwon;Lee, Seung-Woo;Han, Sang-Ok;Lee, Seung-Jae;Jang, Dong-Eon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2011
  • UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) is a grid model applicable for both global and regional model configurations. The Met Office has developed a 4D-Var data assimilation system, which was implemented in the global forecast system on 5 October 2004. In an effort to improve its Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system, Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has adopted the UM system since 2008. The aim of this study is to provide the basic information on the effects of satellite data assimilation on UM performance by conducting global satellite data denial experiments. Advanced Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS), Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) data, Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPSRO) data, Air Craft (CRAFT) data, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data were assimilated in the UM global system. The contributions of assimilation of each kind of satellite data to improvements in UM performance were evaluated using analysis data of basic variables; geopotential height at 500 hPa, wind speed and temperature at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure. The statistical verification using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) showed that most of the satellite data have positive impacts on UM global analysis and forecasts.

Empirical Prediction Models of 1-min Rain Rate Distribution for Various Integration Time

  • Jung, Myoung-Won;Han, Il-Tak;Choi, Moon-Young;Lee, Joo-Hwan;Pack, Jeong-Ki
    • Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.84-89
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    • 2008
  • In a wireless channel above microwave frequency, rain attenuation is very important. In order to predict rain attenuation, 1-min. rain rate distribution is required. This paper discusses appropriate conversion methods to estimate 1-minute rain rate from that of other integration time. Based on the measurement data filed in ITU-R WP3J including ETRI data for 6 consecutive years, distributions of rain rate with 1-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-minute integration time were analyzed, both on the global and regional basis, and the parametric relationship between the statistical characteristics of 1-minute and other measurement data were investigated to deduce the conversion methods. It is shown that the global model works good with good accuracy for 5-, 10-, 20-min integration time, and the global model is also applicable globally with good accuracy for 5-, 10-, 20-min integration time. The global conversion model was adopted last year as an ITU-R document for new recommendation. The regional conversion model would also be very useful for locations of similar climatic zone.

Proposal of Modified Correlation to Calculate the Horizontal Global Solar Irradiance for non-Measuring Cloud-cover Regions (운량 비측정 지역을 위한 수평면전일사량 예측 상관식의 수정모델 제안)

  • Cho, Min-Cheol;Kim, Jeongbae
    • Journal of Institute of Convergence Technology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the authors of this paper proposed newly the correlation model to calculate the horizontal global solar radiation in Korea based the Zhang-Huang (ZH) model proposed in 2002 for China. Previous study was pronounced the correlation with a new term of the duration of sunshine proved as being closely related with the hourly solar radiation in Korea into ZH model. And then another modified correlation for the regions without measuring cloud cover was proposed and evaluated the accuracy and validity for those regions. So, this study was performed to propose modified correlation to calculate the horizontal global solar irradiance of non-measuring cloud-cover regions. Finally, this study proposed the new correlation that could well predict hourly and daily total solar radiation for all regions, various seasons, and various weather conditions including overcast and clear, with higher accuracy and lower error than other models proposed ever before in Korea for non-measuring cloud-cover regions.

Introduction to Simulation Activity for CMDPS Evaluation Using Radiative Transfer Model

  • Shin, In-Chul;Chung, Chu-Yong;Ahn, Myoung-Hwan;Ou, Mi-Lim
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.282-285
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    • 2007
  • Satellite observed brightness temperature simulation using a radiative transfer model (here after, RTM) is useful for various fields, for example sensor design and channel selection by using theoretically calculated radiance data, development of satellite data processing algorithm and algorithm parameter determination before launch. This study is focused on elaborating the simulation procedure, and analyzing of difference between observed and modelled clear sky brightness temperatures. For the CMDPS (COMS Meteorological Data Processing System) development, the simulated clear sky brightness temperatures are used to determine whether the corresponding pixels are cloud-contaminated in cloud mask algorithm as a reference data. Also it provides important information for calibrating satellite observed radiances. Meanwhile, simulated brightness temperatures of COMS channels plan to be used for assessing the CMDPS performance test. For these applications, the RTM requires fast calculation and high accuracy. The simulated clear sky brightness temperatures are compared with those of MTSAT-1R observation to assess the model performance and the quality of the observation. The results show that there is good agreement in the ocean mostly, while in the land disagreement is partially found due to surface characteristics such as land surface temperature, surface vegetation, terrain effect, and so on.

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GLOBAL THRESHOLD DYNAMICS IN HUMORAL IMMUNITY VIRAL INFECTION MODELS INCLUDING AN ECLIPSE STAGE OF INFECTED CELLS

  • ELAIW, A.M.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.137-170
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we propose and analyze three viral infection models with humoral immunity including an eclipse stage of infected cells. The incidence rate of infection is represented by bilinear incidence and saturated incidence in the first and second models, respectively, while it is given by a more general function in the third one. The neutralization rate of viruses is giv0en by bilinear form in the first two models, while it is given by a general function in the third one. For each model, we have derived two threshold parameters, the basic infection reproduction number which determines whether or not a chronic-infection can be established without humoral immunity and the humoral immune response activation number which determines whether or not a chronic-infection can be established with humoral immunity. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions we have proven the global asymptotic stability of all equilibria of the models. For the third model, we have established a set of conditions on the threshold parameters and on the general functions which are sufficient for the global stability of the equilibria of the model. We have performed some numerical simulations for the third model with specific forms of the incidence and neutralization rates and have shown that the numerical results are consistent with the theoretical results.

Fatigue life prediction for radial truck tires using a global-local finite element method

  • Jeong, Kyoung Moon;Beom, Hyeon Gyu;Kim, Kee-Woon;Cho, Jin-Rae
    • Interaction and multiscale mechanics
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2011
  • A global-local finite element modeling technique is employed in this paper to predict the fatigue life of radial truck tires. This paper assumes that a flaw exists inside the tire, in the local model. The local model uses an FEM fracture analysis in conjunction with a global-local technique in ABAQUS. A 3D finite element local model calculates the energy release rate at the belt edge. Using the analysis of the local model, a study of the energy release rate is performed in the crack region and used to determine the crack growth rate analysis. The result considers how different driving conditions contribute to the detrimental effects of belt separation in truck tire failure. The calculation of the total mileage on four sizes of radial truck tires has performed on the belt edge separation. The effect of the change of belt width design on the fatigue lifetime of tire belt separation is discussed.

International Diesel Price Prediction Model based on Machine Learning with Global Economic Indicators (세계 경제 지표를 활용한 머신러닝 기반 국제 경유 가격 예측 모델 개발)

  • A-Rin Choi;Min Seo Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.251-256
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    • 2023
  • International diesel prices play a crucial role in various sectors such as industry, transportation, and energy production, exerting a significant impact on the global economy and international trade. In particular, an increase in international diesel prices can burden consumers and potentially lead to inflation. However, previous studies have primarily focused on gasoline. Therefore, this study aims to propose an international diesel price prediction model. To achieve this goal, we utilize various global economic indicators and train a linear regression model, which is one of the machine learning methodologies. This model clearly identifies the relationship between global economic indicators and international diesel prices while providing highly accurate predictions. It is expected to aid in understanding overall economic trends including market changes.