• Title/Summary/Keyword: generalized additive model (GAM)

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Acute Effects of PM10 on Asthma Hospitalization Among Children and Benefit Analysis at Four Major Cities in Korea (PM10이 소아천식 입원에 미치는 급성 영향 및 건강편익 평가 -서울, 인천, 부산, 울산 4개 도시를 중심으로-)

  • Bae, Hyun-Joo;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Lee, Ae-Kyung;Park, Jeong-Im
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2009
  • This study assessed the relationships between levels of $PM_{10}$ and hospitalization rates for asthma among children from 2003 to 2005 at four major cities in Korea. In addition, we estimated the reduced number of asthma hospitalization associated with an ambient $PM_{10}$ improvement to the acceptable levels as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risks (RR) of asthma hospitalization associated with changes in $PM_{10}$ The RRs of children's asthma hospitalization for every $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in $PM_{10}$ were 1.009(95% CI = 1.004-1.014) in Seoul, 1.013(95% CI = 1.006-1.021) in Incheon, 1.009(95% CI = 1.002-1.016) in Busan, and 1.021(95% CI = 1.005-1.037) in Ulsan. We assessed $PM_{10}$ related health benefits from implementing the WHO's guidelines (24-hour average $50{\mu}g/m^3$) using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program. The estimated benefits were 439(95% CI = 216-666) reduced asthma hospitalization in Seoul, 720(95% CI = 304-1,151) in Incheon, 260(95% CI = 66-459) in Busan, and 126(95% CI = 30-228) in Ulsan. It was concluded that improving $PM_{10}$ condition to the WHO guideline would make a significant contribution to the reduction in asthma hospitalization among children. Therefore, public health measures are still needed to improve air quality in Korea.

Health Risk Estimation for Daily Maximum Temperature in the Summer Season using Healthcare Big Data (보건의료빅데이터를 이용한 여름철 일최고기온에 대한 건강위험도 평가)

  • Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Oh, Inbo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2019
  • This study investigated the relationship between heat-related illnesses obtained from healthcare big data and daily maximum temperature observed in seven metropolitan cities in summer during 2013~2015. We found a statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0.4~0.6) between daily maximum temperature and number of the heat-related patients from Pearson's correlation analyses. A time lag effect was not observed. Relative Risk (RR) analysis using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) showed that the RR of heat-related illness increased with increasing threshold temperature (maximum RR = 1.21). A comparison of the RRs of the seven cities, showed that the values were significantly different by geographical location of the city and had different variations for different threshold temperatures. The RRs for elderly people were clearly higher than those for the all-age group. Especially, a maximum value of 1.83 was calculated at the threshold temperature of $35^{\circ}C$ in Seoul. In addition, relatively higher RRs were found for inland cities (Seoul, Gwangju, Daegu, and Daejeon), which had a high frequency of heat waves. These results demonstrate the significant risk of heat-related illness associated with increasing daily maximum temperature and the difference in adaptation ability to heat wave for each city, which could help improve the heat wave advisory and warning system.

The Relationship Between Tree Radial Growth and Topographic and Climatic Factors in Red Pine and Oak in Central Regions of Korea (중부지방 소나무와 참나무류의 반경생장량과 지형, 기후 인자의 관계)

  • Byun, Jae-Gyun;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Nor, Dae-Kyun;Kim, Sung-Ho;Choi, Jung-Kee;Lee, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.6
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    • pp.908-913
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzed the impact of climatic and topographic factors on tree radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. in central regions of Korea. To find the relationship between annual tree radial growth and climatic factors, we took the core samples from individual trees and measured the tree radial width. On the assumption that the tree radial growth is related to the tree age, we estimated the radial growth by the tree age as an independent variable. Also, we estimated the standard growth, defined as the radial growth of trees aged 30. As results, we found the spatial auto-correlation in the radial growth of the red pine. Moreover, we also found the relationships between climatic and topographic and the standard growth using the GAM (Generalized Additive Model). Increase of temperature has negative impacts on the radial growth of Pinus densiflora, while it has positive impacts on the radial growth of Quercus spp.. On the other hands, increase of precipitation has negative impacts on the radial growth of both species. Lastly, we predicted the spatial distribution changes of Pinus densiflora and Quercus spp. using the temperature increase scenario and the Geographic Information System (GIS) based forest type map. We could predict that Pinus densiflora is more vulnerable than Quercus spp. to climate change so that the habitats of Pinus densiflora will be gradually changed to the habitats of Quercus spp. in eastern coastal and southern regions of Korea after 60 years.

Effect of Ambient Air Pollution on Years of Life Lost from Deaths due to Injury in Seoul, South Korea (대기오염물질이 손상으로 인한 손실수명연수에 미치는 영향: 서울특별시를 중심으로)

  • Sun-Woo Kang;Subin Jeong;Hyewon Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2023
  • Background: Injury is one of the major health problems in South Korea. Few studies have evaluated both intentional and unintentional injury when investigating the association between exposure to air pollutants and injury. Objectives: We aimed to explore the association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and years of life lost (YLLs) due to injury. Methods: Data on daily YLLs for 2002~2019 were obtained from the the Death Statistics Database of the Korean National Statistical Office. This study estimated short-term exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 ㎛ (PM10), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <2.5 ㎛ (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3). This time series study was conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a Gaussian distribution. We also evaluated a delayed effect of ambient air pollution by constructing a lag structure up to seven days. The best-fitting lag was selected based on smallest generalized cross validation (GCV) value. To explore effect modification by intentionality of injury (i.e., intentional injury [self-harm, assault] and unintentional injury), we conducted stratified subgroup analyses. Additionally, we stratified unintentional injury by mechanism (traffic accident, fall, etc.). Results: During the study period, the average daily YLLs due to injury was 307.5 years. In the intentional injury, YLLs due to self-harm and assault showed positive association with air pollutants. In the unintentional injury, YLLs due to fall, electric current, fire and poisoning showed positive association with air pollutants, whereas YLLs due to traffic accident, mechanical force and drowning/submersion showed negative associations with air pollutants. Conclusions: Injury is recognized as preventable, and effective strategies to create a safe society are important. Therefore, we need to establish strategies to prevent injury and consider air pollutants in this regard.

Modelling of a Spatial Distribution of the Species Richness of Fishes, Plants, and Birds Using Environmental Factors on a Wide-Ranging Scale1 - Focusing on the Major Drainage Systems in Japan - (광역스케일의 환경 인자를 이용한 어류, 식물, 조류 종수의 공간적 분포에 대한 모델링 - 일본의 주요수계를 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Mi-Deok;Lee, Gi-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.347-355
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the species richness of fish, plant, and bird and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables based on data collected from 109 major drainage systems in Japan from 1990 until 2005. As a result, the most parts of the distributions of the fish, plant, and bird species richness were clarified by the average annual atmospheric temperature, dimension of drainage areas, and annual rainfall, respectively. In addition, this study predicted the value of each organism species distributed in national drainage areas in Japan using GAMs(Generalized Additive Models) for each organism model created by environmental factors on a wide-ranging scale, and also mapped out the value. Mapping out the predicted value could make it easier for its managers to newly set up the areas needing to be protected to obtain diversity of the organism species and to assess their availability of conservation for bio-diversity.

Effects of Short-term Exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 on Mortality in Seoul (서울시 미세먼지(PM10)와 초미세먼지(PM2.5)의 단기노출로 인한 사망영향)

  • Bae, Hyun-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.346-354
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: Although a number of epidemiologic studies have examined the association between air pollution and mortality, data limitations have resulted in fewer studies of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ${\leq}2.5{\mu}m$ ($PM_{2.5}$). We conducted a time-series study of the acute effects of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ${\leq}10{\mu}m$($PM_{10}$) and $PM_{2.5}$ on the increased risk of death for all causes and cardiovascular mortality in Seoul, Korea from 2006 to 2010. Methods: We applied the generalized additive model (GAM) with penalized splines, adjusting for time, day of week, holiday, temperature, and relative humidity in order to investigate the association between risk of mortality and particulate matter. Results: We found that $PM_{10}$ and $PM_{2.5}$ were associated with an increased risk of mortality for all causes and of cardiovascular mortality in Seoul. A $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in the concentration of $PM_{10}$ corresponded to 0.44% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.25-0.63%), and 0.95% (95% CI: 0.16-1.73%) increase of all causes and of cardiovascular mortality. A $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in the concentration of $PM_{2.5}$ corresponded to 0.76% (95% CI: 0.40-1.12%), and 1.63% (95% CI: 0.89-2.37%) increase of all causes and cardiovascular mortality. Conclusion: We conclude that $PM_{10}$ and $PM_{2.5}$ have an adverse effect on population health and that this strengthens the rationale for further limiting levels of $PM_{10}$ and $PM_{2.5}$ in Seoul.

Impact of Weather on Prevalence of Febrile Seizures in Children (소아의 열성경련에 날씨가 미치는 영향)

  • Woo, Jung Hee;Oh, Seok Bin;Yim, Chung Hyuk;Byeon, Jung Hye;Eun, Baik-Lin
    • Journal of the Korean Child Neurology Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Febrile seizure (FS) is the most common type of seizure in children between 6 months to 5 years of age. A family history of febrile seizures can increase the risk a child will have a FS. Yet, prevalence of FS regarding external environment has not been clearly proved. This study attempts to determine the association between prevalence of FS and weather. Methods: This study included medical records from the Korea National Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Data were collected from 29,240 children, born after 2004, diagnosed with FS who were admitted to one of the hospitals in Seoul, Korea, between January 2009 and December 2013. During the corresponding time period, data from the Korea Meteorological Administration on daily monitoring of four meteorological factors (sea-level pressure, amount of precipitation, humidity and temperature) were collected. The relationships of FS prevalence and each meteorological factor will be designed using Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). Also, the contributory effect of viral infections on FS prevalence and weather will be discussed. Results: The amount of precipitation was divided into two groups for comparison: one with less than 5 mm and the other with equal to or more than 5 mm. As a result of Poisson GAM, higher prevalence of FS showed a correlation with smaller amount of precipitation. Smoothing function was used to classify the relationships between three variables (sea-level pressure, humidity, and temperature) and prevalence of FS. FS prevalence was correlated with lower sea-level pressure and lower humidity. FS prevalence was high in two temperature ranges (-7 to $-1^{\circ}C$ and $18-21^{\circ}C$). Conclusion: Low sea-level pressure, small amount of precipitation, and low relative air humidity may increase FS prevalence risk.

Influence of Climate Factors and PM10 on Rotaviral Infection: A Seasonal Variation Study (Rotavirus 감염의 연도별 유행시기의 변동양상 및 기후요소와 PM10과의 관계)

  • Im, Hae-Ra;Jeon, In-Sang;Tchah, Hann;Im, Jeong-Soo;Ryoo, Eell;Sun, Yong-Han;Cho, Kang-Ho;Im, Ho-Joon;Lee, Gwang-Hoon;Lee, Hak-Soo;Kang, Yune-Jeung;Noh, Yi-Gn
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.120-128
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: Recently, while the authors were experiencing that the epidemic period of rotaviral infection happened more in the early spring, we tried to find out how the outbreaks of rotaviral infection are changing in detail depending on the weather condition since it has something to do with the climate factors and PM10. Methods: Fourteen hundreds seventy nine patients who were proved to be positive to rotavirus were chosen among children less than 5 years old from January 1995 to June 2003. Among various climate factors, monthly average temperature, humidity, rainfall and PM10 were selected. Results: Rotaviral infection was most active in 2002 as 309 (20.9%) patients. It has been the spring that is the most active period of rotaviral infection since 2000. The temperature (RR=0.9423, CI=0.933424~0.951163), rainfall (RR=1.0024, CI=1.001523~1.003228) and PM10 (RR=1.0123, CI=1.009385~1.015248) were significantly associated with the monthly distribution of rotaviral infection. Conclusion: Through this study we determined that the epidemic period of rotaviral infection is changed to spring, which is different from the usual seasonal periods such as late fall or winter as reported in previous articles. As increased PM10 which could give serious influence to the human body, and changing pattern of climate factors such as monthly average temperature and rainfall have something to do with the rotaviral infection, we suppose that further study concerning this result is required in the aspects of epidemiology, biology and atmospheric science.

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