• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.763-771
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• 2008

Uncertainties are pervasive in engineering geological problems. Therefore, the presence of uncertainties and their significance in analysis and design of slopes have been recognized. Since the uncertainties cannot be taken into account by the conventional deterministic approaches in slope stability analysis, the probabilistic analysis has been considered as the primary tool for representing uncertainties in mathematical models. However, some uncertainties are caused by incomplete information due to lack of information, and those uncertainties cannot be handled appropriately by the probabilistic approach. For those uncertainties, the theory of fuzzy sets is more appropriate. Therefore, in this study, fuzzy reliability analysis has been proposed in order to deal with the uncertainties which cannot be quantified in the probabilistic analysis due to the limited information. For the practical example, a slope is selected in this study and both the probabilistic analysis and the fuzzy reliability analysis have been carried out for planar failure. In the fuzzy reliability analysis, the dip angle and internal friction angle of discontinuity are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers since the random properties of the variables cannot be obtained completely under the conditions of limited information. In the study, the fuzzy reliability index and the probabilities of failure are evaluated from fuzzy arithmetic and compared to those from the probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation and point estimate method. The analysis results show that the fuzzy reliability analysis is more appropriate for the condition that the uncertainties arise due to incomplete information.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.492-500
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• 2003

By means of the transformation from the problem of fuzzy reliability to the problem of general reliability, a model for analyzing fuzzy reliability is introduced in this paper Because of the complexity of the Problem of the fuzzy reliability, generally speaking, the analytical equations for calculating fuzzy reliability indexes of machine part cannot be obtained in most cases. Therefore, in this paper, an approach is given wherein progressions are employed to calculate them, or a simulation approach is used to estimate them by expressing general reliability indexes as progressions. By utilizing the approach put forwards in the paper, the calculating quantity for analyzing the fuzzy reliability will be reduced : even substantially reduced sometimes. Some examples are taken to explain the feasibility of the model and a simulation approach.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.103-114
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• 2003

This paper aims to propose a method that helps maintenance engineers to evaluate the damage states of bridge structure systems by using a Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis. It may be stated that Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis may be very useful for the systematic and rational fuzzy reliability assessment for real bridge structure systems problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related bridge structural element damages in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically experts experiences and subjective judgement. This paper considers these uncertainties by providing a fuzzy reliability-based framework and shows that the identification of the optimum maintenance scenario is a straightforward process. This is achieved by using a computer program for LIFETIME. This program can consider the effects of various types of actions on the fuzzy reliability index profile of a deteriorating structures. Only the effect of maintenance interventions is considered in this study. However. any environmental or mechanical action affecting the fuzzy reliability index profile can be considered in LIFETIME. Numerical examples of deteriorating bridges are presented to illustrate the capability of the proposed approach. Further development and implementation of this approach are recommended for future research.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.61-68
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• 1998

It has become important to evaluate the qualitive reliability and condition assessment of existing structural systems in order to establish a rational program for repair and maintenance. Since most of if existing structural system may suffer from defect corrosion and damage, it is necessary to account for their effects in fuzzy reliability analysis, In this paper, an attempt is made to develope a reliability analysis for damaged structural systems using failure possibility theory. Damage state is specified in terms of linguistic valiables using natural language information and numerical information, which are defined by fuzzy sets. Using a subjective condition index of failure possibility and information of the damage state is introduced into the calculation of failure probability. The subjective condition index of quantitative and qualitative analysis method is newly proposed based on the fuzzy set operations, namely logical product, drastic product, logical sum and drastic sum

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.47-54
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• 2016

Microgrids offer several reliability benefits, such as the improvement of load-point reliability and the opportunity for reliability-differentiated services. The primary goal of this work is to investigate the impacts of operating condition on the reliability index for microgrid system. It relies on a component failure rate model which quantifies the relationship between component failure rate and state variables. Some parameters involved are characterized by subjective uncertainty. Thus, fuzzy numbers are introduced to represent such parameters, and an optimization model based on Fuzzy Chance Constrained Programming (FCCP) is established for reliability index calculation. In addition, we present a hybrid algorithm which combines scenario enumeration and fuzzy simulation as a solution tool. The simulations in a microgrid test system show that reliability indices without considering operating condition can often prove to be optimistic. We also investigate two groups of situations, which include the different penetration levels of microsource and different confidence levels. The results support the necessity of considering operating condition for achieving accurate reliability evaluation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.665-683
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• 2006

The strength behaviors of Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP) Composites can be greatly influenced by the properties of constitutive materials, the laminate structures, and load conditions etc, accompanied by many uncertainty factors. So the reliability study on FRP is an important subject of research. Many achievements have been made in reliability studies based on the probability theory, but little has been done on the roles played by fuzzy variables. In this paper, a fuzzy reliability model for FRP laminates is established first, in which the loads are considered as random variables and the strengths as fuzzy variables. Then a numerical model is developed to assess the fuzzy reliability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to compute the reliability of laminas under the maximum stress criterion. In the second part of this paper, a generalized fuzzy reliability model (GFRM) is proposed. By virtue of the fact that there may exist a series of states between the failure state and the function state, a fuzzy assumption for the structure state together with the probabilistic assumption for strength parameters is adopted to construct the GFRM of composite materials. By defining a generalized limit state function, the problem is converted to the conventional reliability formula that enables the first-order reliability method (FORM) applicable in calculating the reliability index. Several examples are worked out to show the validity of the models and the efficiency of the methods proposed in this paper. The parameter sensitivity analysis shows that some of the mean values of the strength parameters have great influence on the laminated composites' reliability. The differences resulting from the application of different failure criteria and different fuzzy assumptions are also discussed. It is concluded that the GFRM is feasible to use, and can provide an effective and synthetic method to evaluate the reliability of a system with different types of uncertainty factors.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.5A no.3
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• pp.260-268
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• 2005

This paper proposes an improved investment pnonty decision method of facilities considering the reliability of distribution networks. The proposed method decides an investment order of the facilities combining, by fuzzy rules, the investment priority decision by KEPCO and that by reliability evaluation indices. The reliability evaluation indices are SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index) and SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index). The reliability analysis method of distribution networks applied in this paper utilizes the analytic method, where the used reliability data is the historical data of KEPCO. Particularly, we assumed that the failure rate increases as the equipment ages. To verify the performance of the proposed method, we applied it with the planned projects to reinforce the weak electrical facilities in KEPCO in 2004. The evaluation result showed that, under a limited budget, the reliability of KEPCO in the Busan region using the proposed method could be enhanced if used rather than the conventional method typically in place. Therefore, the results verify that the proposed method can be efficiently used in the actual priorities method for investing in the electrical facilities.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.455-460
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• 2003

A new cluster validity index is proposed that determines the optimal partition and optimal number of clusters for fuzzy partitions obtained from the fuzzy c-means algorithm. The proposed validity index exploits an overlap measure and a separation measure between clusters. The overlap measure is obtained by computing an inter-cluster overlap. The separation measure is obtained by computing a distance between fuzzy clusters. A good fuzzy partition is expected to have a low degree of overlap and a larger separation distance. Testing of the proposed index and nine previously formulated indexes on well-known data sets showed the superior effectiveness and reliability of the proposed index in comparison to other indexes.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.177-184
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• 2005

This paper proposes a improved investment priority decision method of the facilities considering the reliability of distribution networks. The proposed method decides a investment order of the facilities combining, by fuzzy rules, the investment priority decision of KEPCO and the priority decision considering reliability evaluation indices. Where reliability evaluation indices are SAIFI(System Average Interruption Frequency Index) and SAIDI(System Average Interruption Duration Index), as referred to evaluation index for sustained interruption. The reliability analysis method of distribution networks applied in this paper utilizes analytic method, where the used reliability data is historical data of KEPCO. Particularly, we assumed that the failure rate increased as the equipment ages. To verify the performance of the proposed method, we applied it with the planned projects to reinforce the weak facility electrical facilities in KEPCO in 2004. The evaluation result showed that, under a limited budget, the reliability of the KEPCO in the Busan region using the proposed method can be enhanced than using the conventional KEPCO's method. Therefore, the results verify the proposed method can be efficiently used in the actual priorities method for investing the electrical facilities.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.5B
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• pp.415-429
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• 2011

Quantitative evaluation indexes for flood control effect of a multi-purpose reservoir used widely in Korea are the discharge control rate, reservoir release rate, reservoir storage rate, and flood control storage utilization rate. Because these indexes usually use and compare inflow, release, and storage data directly, the uncertainties included in these data are not considered in evaluation process, and the downstream flood control effects are not assessed properly. Also, since the acceptable partial failure in a design of water resources system is not considered, the development of a new flood control effect evaluation index is required. Fuzzy set theory is therefore applied to the development of the index in order to consider the data uncertainty, the downstream flood control effect, and the acceptable partial failure. In this study, the flood control effect of a multi-purpose reservoir is evaluated using the flood control effect index developed by applying fuzzy set theory. The Chungju reservoir basin was selected as a study basin and the storm events of July, 2006 are used to study the applicability of the developed index. The related factors for flood control effect are fuzzified, the acceptable failure region is divided from the system state to evaluate the flood control effect using developed flood control effect index. The flood control effect index were calculated by applying to the study basin and storm events. The results show that the developed index can represent the flood control effect of a reservoir more realistically and objectively than the existing index.