• 제목/요약/키워드: fuzzy probability theory

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건설공사의 리스크분석을 위한 퍼지평가모형 개발 (Development of Fuzzy Model for Analyzing Construction Risk Factors)

  • 박서영;강인석;김창학;손창백
    • 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건설관리학회 2001년도 학술대회지
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    • pp.519-524
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    • 2001
  • 국내·외적으로 건설공사의 리스크관리에 대한 중요성은 더욱 커져가고 있지만, 합리적인 리스크인자의 구축방법과 개별 리스크인자의 분석 및 정량화가 용이하지 않기 때문에 실무적 운용이 가능한 리스크분석시스템을 구축한 경우는 극히 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 전문가의 주관적 판단과 언어적 변량을 이용하여 리스크를 정량화하기 위한 퍼지분석방법을 제시한다. 본 퍼지분석방법은 건설공사의 리스크인자를 발생확률 발생강도, 발생빈도로 구분하여 평가하게 함으로서 그 적용성과 정확성을 높일 수 있도록 하였고, 언어적 변량을 이용하여 리스크를 정량화하기 때문에 복잡한 자료의 구축과 분석시간을 단축하였으며, 그 적용이 매우 쉽다는 장점을 갖게 된다.

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임무수행 경과에 따른 항공기 생존성 평가기법 연구 (A Study of the Evaluating Method for the Survivability of Aircraft during Mission Completion)

  • 윤봉수
    • 한국국방경영분석학회지
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.166-181
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    • 1996
  • Aircraft survivability is determined by the susceptibility and the vulnerability. The aircraft susceptibility and vulnerability depend upon the hardware and software factors. Each of the hardware and software factors consisted of the qualitative and quantitative attributes varies according to the time of the mission. In order to establish the mathermatical model to analyze and evaluate the aircraft survivability, qualitative factors have to be transformed into quantitative factors. Even if many researches in the area of dynamic concept analysis and conversion of qualitative factors into the quantitative factors has been insufficient. This research enhances these insufficient area by developing a reliable aircarft survivability analysis method. The major areas of this research are as follows. First, a method for the conversion of the qualitative factors into the quantitative factors is developed by combining the Fuzzy Set Theory concept and the Delphi Technique. Second, by using the stochastic network diagram for the dynamic survivability analysis, the aircraft survivability and the probability of kill are calculated from the state probability for the situation during mission. The advantage of the analysis technique developed in this research includes ease of use and flexibility. In other words, in any given aircraft's mission execution under any variable probability density function, the developed computer program is able to analyze and evaluate the aircraft survivability.

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Underutilization 문제를 해결한 퍼지 신경회로망 모델 (A Fuzzy Neural Network Model Solving the Underutilization Problem)

  • 김용수;함창현;백용선
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.354-358
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문에서는 underutilization 문제를 해결한 퍼지 신경회로망 모델을 제시한다. 이 퍼지 신경 회로망은 ART-1 신경회로망과 유사한 제어 구조를 가지고 있어 유연성이 있으면서도 안정성이 있다. 또한 연결강도의 초기화가 필요 없고 ART-1 신경회로망에 비하여 잡음에 민감하지 않다. 이 퍼지 신경회로망의 학습법칙은 코호넨의 학습법칙을 변형하고 퍼지화 하였으며 누설 경쟁학습의 퍼지화와 조건 확률의 퍼지화에 기반을 두고 있다. 출력 뉴런 중에서 승자를 정한 후에 행해지는 점검 테스트에서는 유사척도로 상대적 거리를 사용하였다. 이 상대적 거리는 유클리디안 거리와 함께 데이터와 클러스터들의 대푯값들 간의 상대적인 위치를 고려한 것이다. 본 논문에서 제안한 퍼지 신경회로망과 코호넨 자기 조직화 특징 지도의 성능을 비교하기 위하여 널리 사용되어온 IRIS 데이터와 가우시안 분포 데이터를 사용하였다.

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건설공사의 확률적 위험도분석평가 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Construction Projects)

  • 조효남;임종권;김광섭
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 1997년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 1997
  • Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.

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From Theory to Implementation of a CPT-Based Probabilistic and Fuzzy Soil Classification

  • Tumay, Mehmet T.;Abu-Farsakh, Murad Y.;Zhang, Zhongjie
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2008년도 춘계 학술발표회 초청강연 및 논문집
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    • pp.1466-1483
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    • 2008
  • This paper discusses the development of an up-to-date computerized CPT (Cone Penetration Test) based soil engineering classification system to provide geotechnical engineers with a handy tool for their daily design activities. Five CPT soil engineering classification systems are incorporated in this effort. They include the probabilistic region estimation and fuzzy classification methods, both developed by Zhang and Tumay, the Schmertmann, the Douglas and Olsen, and the Robertson et al. methods. In the probabilistic region estimation method, a conformal transformation is used to determine the soil classification index, U, from CPT cone tip resistance and friction ratio. A statistical correlation is established between U and the compositional soil type given by the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS). The soil classification index, U, provides a soil profile over depth with the probability of belonging to different soil types, which more realistically and continuously reflects the in-situ soil characterization, which includes the spatial variation of soil types. The CPT fuzzy classification on the other hand emphasizes the certainty of soil behavior. The advantage of combining these two classification methods is realized through implementing them into visual basic software with three other CPT soil classification methods for friendly use by geotechnical engineers. Three sites in Louisiana were selected for this study. For each site, CPT tests and the corresponding soil boring results were correlated. The soil classification results obtained using the probabilistic region estimation and fuzzy classification methods are cross-correlated with conventional soil classification from borings logs and three other established CPT soil classification methods.

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건설공사를 위한 위험분석기법 사례연구 (A Case Study on Risk Analysis of Large Construction Projects)

  • 김창학;박서영;곽중민;강인석
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1155-1162
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    • 2004
  • This research proposes a new risk analysis method in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The proposed risk analysis methods consists of four phases. First step, AHP model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Finally, Fuzzy theory suggests a risk management method for construction projects, which is using subjective knowledge of an expert and linguistic value, to analyze and quantify risk. The result of study is expected to improve the accuracy of risk analysis because three factors, such as probability, impact and exposure, for estimating membership function are introduced to quantify each risk factor. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

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APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1993년도 Fifth International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress 93
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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