• Title/Summary/Keyword: future weather

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Prediction of cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms in reservoir using machine learning and deep learning (머신러닝과 딥러닝을 이용한 저수지 유해 남조류 발생 예측)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon;Park, Jun Hyung;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1167-1181
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    • 2021
  • In relation to the algae bloom, four types of blue-green algae that emit toxic substances are designated and managed as harmful Cyanobacteria, and prediction information using a physical model is being also published. However, as algae are living organisms, it is difficult to predict according to physical dynamics, and not easy to consider the effects of numerous factors such as weather, hydraulic, hydrology, and water quality. Therefore, a lot of researches on algal bloom prediction using machine learning have been recently conducted. In this study, the characteristic importance of water quality factors affecting the occurrence of Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) were analyzed using the random forest (RF) model for Bohyeonsan Dam and Yeongcheon Dam located in Yeongcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do and also predicted the occurrence of harmful blue-green algae using the machine learning and deep learning models and evaluated their accuracy. The water temperature and total nitrogen (T-N) were found to be high in common, and the occurrence prediction of CyanoHABs using artificial neural network (ANN) also predicted the actual values closely, confirming that it can be used for the reservoirs that require the prediction of harmful cyanobacteria for algal management in the future.

Development of Demand Forecasting Model for Public Bicycles in Seoul Using GRU (GRU 기법을 활용한 서울시 공공자전거 수요예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Woon;Kwahk, Kee-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2022
  • After the first Covid-19 confirmed case occurred in Korea in January 2020, interest in personal transportation such as public bicycles not public transportation such as buses and subways, increased. The demand for 'Ddareungi', a public bicycle operated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government, has also increased. In this study, a demand prediction model of a GRU(Gated Recurrent Unit) was presented based on the rental history of public bicycles by time zone(2019~2021) in Seoul. The usefulness of the GRU method presented in this study was verified based on the rental history of Around Exit 1 of Yeouido, Yeongdengpo-gu, Seoul. In particular, it was compared and analyzed with multiple linear regression models and recurrent neural network models under the same conditions. In addition, when developing the model, in addition to weather factors, the Seoul living population was used as a variable and verified. MAE and RMSE were used as performance indicators for the model, and through this, the usefulness of the GRU model proposed in this study was presented. As a result of this study, the proposed GRU model showed higher prediction accuracy than the traditional multi-linear regression model and the LSTM model and Conv-LSTM model, which have recently been in the spotlight. Also the GRU model was faster than the LSTM model and the Conv-LSTM model. Through this study, it will be possible to help solve the problem of relocation in the future by predicting the demand for public bicycles in Seoul more quickly and accurately.

Improvement in Rice Cultural Techniques Against Unfavorable Weather Condition (기상재해와 수도재배상의 대책)

  • Ryu, I.S.;Lee, J.H.;Kwon, Y.W.
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.385-397
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    • 1982
  • The climatic impacts have been the environmental constraints with soil characteristics to achieve self sufficiency of food production in Korea. In this paper, the distribution and appearance of impacts and the changes in climatological status due to recent trend of early transplanting of rice are widely discussed to derive some countermeasures against the impacts, being focussed on cultural A long term analysis of the climatic impact appearances of the last 74 years showed that drought, strong wind, flood, cold spell and frost were the major impacts. Before 1970's, the drought damage was the greatest among the climatic impacts; however, the expansion and improvement of irrigation and drainage system markedly decreased the damage of drought and heavy rain. The appearance of cold damage became more frequent than before due to introduction of early transplanting for more thermophilic new varieties. Tongillines which were from Indica and Japonica crosses throw more attention to cold damage for high yields to secure high temperature in heading and ripening stages and lead weakness to cold and drought damage in early growth stage after transplanting. The plants became subject to heavy rain in ripening stage also. For the countermeasures against cold damage, the rational distribution of adequate varieties according to the regional climatic conditions and planting schedule should be imposed on the cultivation. A detoured water way to increase water temperature might be suggestable in the early growth stage. Heavy application of phosphate to boost rooting and tillering also would be a nutritional control method. In the heading and ripening stages, foliar application of phosphate and additional fertilization of silicate might be considerable way of nutritional control. Since the amount of solar radiation and air temperature in dry years were high, healthy plants for high yield could be obtained; therefere, the expansion of irrigation system and development of subsurface water should be performed as one of the national development projects. To minimize the damage of strong wind and rainfall, the rational distribution of varieties with different growing periods in the area where the damage occurred habitualy should be considered with installation of wind breaks. Not only vertical windbreaks but also a horizontal wind break using a net might be a possible way to decrease the white heads in rice field by dry wind. Finally, to establish the integrated countermeasures against the climatic impacts, the detailed interpretation on the regional climatic conditions should be conducted to understand distribution and frequency of the impacts. The expansion of observation net work for agricultural meteorology and development of analysis techniques for meteorological data must be conducted in future together with the development of the new cultural techniques.

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Quantitative Analysis of Microplastics in Coastal Seawater of Taean Peninsula using Fluorescence Measurement Technique (형광측정기법을 이용한 태안반도 연안 표층수의 미세플라스틱 정량분포 스크리닝)

  • Un-Ki Hwang;Hoon Choi;Ju-Wook Lee;Yun-Ho Park;Wonsoo Kang;Moonjin Lee
    • Journal of Marine Life Science
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.68-77
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we investigated the quantitative distribution of microplastics in the surface seawater at 8 points near the Taean Peninsula using fluorescence staining. The study revealed a detection range of microplastics from 0 to 360.5 particles/l, with an average of 149.7 ± 46.0 particles/l. When classifying the microplastics by size, it was found that particles smaller than 50 ㎛ were dominant, although there were differences at Site 3. Moreover, it was not possible to identify clear correlations when comparing the number of microplastics based on collection area and particle size. Various physical and chemical factors, including plastic material, dynamic ocean conditions (such as currents, wind, waves, tides), geological characteristics (topography, slope), sediment materials including coastal organisms, human activities (fishing, development, tourism), and weather conditions (floods, rainfall), affect the behavior of microplastics. Therefore, future efforts should focus on standardizing quantitative analysis methods and conducting fundamental research on microplastic monitoring, including the analysis of environmental factors.

A Study on the Re-establishment of the Accident Classification for Aids to Navigation (항로표지사고 분류체계의 재정립에 관한 연구)

  • Beom-Sik Moon;Tae-Goun Kim;Chae-uk Song;Young-Jin Kim
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.128-133
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    • 2023
  • In order for Aids to Navigation to provide sustainable services to users, it is possible when there is no Aids to Navigation accident. If an Aids to Navigation accident occurs, the manager should efficiently manage it to prevent the same accident. However, the current Aids to Navigation accident management only specifies the cause and type of the accident. There are no separate guidelines. Thus, the accident is recorded differently depending on the manager. Therefore, this study attempted to redefine Aids to Navigation accident. To this end, Aids to Navigation accidents that have occurred over the past 23 years (year 2000 to years 2022), IALA's Aids to Navigation information standard, S-201, and categories of accidents (traffic accidents and marine accidents) were analyzed. Causes of Aids to Navigation accidents were divided into internal and external causes. Accidents were divided into three types: Light tower accident, buoy accident, and equipment accident. By further subdividing primary items, the cause of accident was reestablished into 7 items such as mooring and bad weather and 11 items such as Light tower damage, buoy loss, and equipment breakdown. These research results can be used as basic data to provide future Aids to Navigation accident statistics.

A study on the crop switching of farmers in Jeju Islands related to the climate changes - focused on the citrus farms of the graduates of the KNCAF - (제주지역의 기후변화에 따른 농가의 작목전환 실태 -한농대 졸업생 감귤 농가를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, J.S.;Kang, S.K.
    • Journal of Practical Agriculture & Fisheries Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.163-179
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    • 2015
  • The aim of this study is to investigate to which degree farmers did the crop switching and cultivar renewal as a confrontational strategy to climate change, and which problems they had in that process, and then to provide the supporting plans for them. We conducted a questionnaire survey of 15 citrus farmers of the KNCAP graduates in Jeju Island. Most of the survey respondents agreed to the climate change of Jeju Island and the subtropical climate of its coastal area. The farmers have experienced irregular weather such as abnormal high temperature, frequent rain, and droughts, resulting in the harmful insects and new weeds attack. As the climate change strategies, they are adopting a greenhouse culture system, improving a soil drainage using reorganization of planting space, making a new pest management program, and trying to switch a crop to subtropical fruits. It is expected that 50% of the survey respondents have changed their crops or will do; and 73 % of them have changed cultivar or have a plan to do. Only a few farmers directly pointed to a reason for their efforts to change the crops or to renew the cultivars as the anti-climate change strategy, however, most farmers answered the reason was to increase profitability by meeting their consumers' tastes. Presently, it is not the anti-climate change strategy but increase of profitability by meeting the consumers' needs the reason why most of the survey respondents have changed their crops or renewed the cultivars, while a few of them switched their crops to a subtropical fruit trees due to climate change. On the crop switching, they had some difficulties such as a labor shortage, availability of land, operating costs and instable income. On the cultivar renewal, also, they encountered the lack of cultivating techniques for new cultivars and the dim future for the new market. In long-term perspective, Jeju's farmers need new information and educational programs about the effect of climate change on agriculture of Jeju, and cultivation techniques for new crops and new cultivars.

Evaluation of Growth and Yield on Transplanting time and Plant Density in ItalianRyegrass

  • Yun-Ho Lee;Hyeon-Soo Jang;Jeong-Won Kim;Bo-kyeong Kim;Deauk-Kim;Jong-Tak Youn
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.101-101
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, due to climate change, the livestock industry has become more interested in the production of forage crops. In Korea, more than 74% of forage crops are cultivated in winter rice fields. In particular, Italian ryegrass (IRG) is depends on imports for more than 70% of its seeds. In generally, the IRG rapeseed cultivation method involves sowing from early October to mid-October by drill sowing seeding or spot seedling. However, the sowing period is delayed due to frequent rainfall during. And, same period require a lot of seeds. However, raising seedlings and transplanted IRG will overcome weather conditions and reduce the amount of seeds. This study was intended to be applied to the domestic IRG seed industry in the future through growth and quantity evaluation according to transplant time and planting density for the production of good quality IRG seeds in rice paddy fields. In this study, transplanting time (October 20, October 30, November 10) and planting density (50, 70, and 80) were cultivated at the National Institute of Crop Science in 2021. The amount of fertilizer applied was adjusted to (N-P2O5-K2O) 4.5-12-12 (kg/10a), and then 2.2(kg/10a) of nitrogen was added each year. For the growth survey, leaf area, canopy coverage, plant length, and seed yield were investigated. Along with the transplanting time, the plant length was higher on October 20 than on October 30 and November 10. On the other hand, leaf area index changes differed depending on the transplanting time and planting density, and were particularly high on October 20, 80 density and 70 density, but similar on October 30 and November 10. 1000 seed weight showed no difference with transplanting time and planting density. On the other hand, the seed yield was 215(kg/10a) for 80 density on October 20, 211(kg/10a) for 70 density, 118(kg/10a) for 50 density, and 80 density for October 30 and November 10. and 70 density did not differ. On the other hand, the 50 density on October 30 and November 10 were 164(kg/10a) and 147(kg/10a) respectively. As can be seen from this study, the earlier the transplant, the higher the seed yield. However, the 50 density was reduced in yield compared to the 70 density and 80 density.

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Production of Digital Climate Maps with 1km resolution over Korean Peninsula using Statistical Downscaling Model (통계적 상세화 모형을 활용한 한반도 1km 농업용 전자기후도 제작)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Kyo-Moon Shim;Sera Jo;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.404-414
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    • 2023
  • In this study, digital climate maps with high-resolution (1km, daily) for the period of 1981 to 2020 were produced for the use as reference data within the procedures for statistical downscaling of climate change scenarios. Grid data for the six climate variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation was created over Korean Peninsula using statistical downscaling model, so-called IGISRM (Improved GIS-based Regression Model), using global reanalysis data and in-situ observation. The digital climate data reflects topographical effects well in terms of representing general behaviors of observation. In terms of Correlation Coefficient, Slope of scatter plot, and Normalized Root Mean Square Error, temperature-related variables showed satisfactory performance while the other variables showed relatively lower reproducibility performance. These digital climate maps based on observation will be used to downscale future climate change scenario data as well as to get the information of gridded agricultural weather data over the whole Korean Peninsula including North Korea.

Calculating Sea Surface Wind by Considering Asymmetric Typhoon Wind Field (비대칭형 태풍 특성을 고려한 해상풍 산정)

  • Hye-In Kim;Wan-Hee Cho;Jong-Yoon Mun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.770-778
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    • 2023
  • Sea surface wind is an important variable for elucidating the atmospheric-ocean interactions and predicting the dangerous weather conditions caused by oceans. Accurate sea surface wind data are required for making correct predictions; however, there are limited observational datasets for oceans. Therefore, this study aimed to obtain long-period high-resolution sea surface wind data. First, the ERA5 reanalysis wind field, which can be used for a long period at a high resolution, was regridded and synthesized using the asymmetric typhoon wind field calculated via the Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model of the numerical model named ADvanced CIRCulation model. The accuracy of the asymmetric typhoon synthesized wind field was evaluated using data obtained from Korea Meteorological Administration and Japan Meteorological Administration. As a result of the evaluation, it was found that the asymmetric typhoon synthetic wind field reproduce observations relatively well, compared with ERA5 reanalysis wind field and symmetric typhoon synthetic wind field calculated by the Holland model. The sea surface wind data produced in this study are expected to be useful for obtaining storm surge data and conducting frequency analysis of storm surges and sea surface winds in the future.

Comparative Analysis of Blue Carbon Stock Spatial Data in the Estuaries and Coastal Areas of the Geum and Nakdong Rivers (금강 및 낙동강 하구·연안의 블루카본 저장량 공간정보 비교)

  • Ji-Ae Jung;Bong-Oh Kwon;Hyun-Jung Hong;Jong-Ho Ahn;Moung-Jin Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_1
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    • pp.1505-1515
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    • 2023
  • As extreme weather events caused by climate change are occurring around the world, blue carbon has recently been gaining attention as a carbon sink. Blue carbon has been officially recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a means of reducing greenhouse gases, and various studies are underway to discover new blue carbon sources both domestically and internationally. Domestic blue carbon research is centered on carbon absorption and storage in tidal flats, which account for most of the coastal wetlands, but there is a lack of research on spatial information. This study utilized the carbon storage of tidal flats from previous studies and converted it into location and spatial information for each basin of the Geumgang and Nakdong rivers. In addition, a proxy value of carbon storage per area by basin was calculated to compare and analyze the total carbon storage of various tidal flats in Korea and abroad. As a result of the analysis, both the Geumgang and Nakdong River basins showed different amounts of carbon storage depending on the tidal flats data, with the highest amount in the Geumgang basin coming from the National Ocean Survey (469,810.1 Mg C) and the highest amount in the Nakdong River basin coming from the Ministry of Environment (217,145.01 Mg C). The results of this study can be used as a basis for future research on the establishment of domestic blue carbon spatial information.