• Title/Summary/Keyword: future water temperature

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Building a Nonlinear Relationship between Air and Water Temperature for Climate-Induced Future Water Temperature Prediction (기후변화에 따른 미래 하천 수온 예측을 위한 비선형 기온-수온 상관관계 구축)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.21-38
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    • 2014
  • In response to global warming, the effect of the air temperature on water temperature has been noticed. The change in water temperature in river environment results in the change in water quality and ecosystem, especially Dissolved Oxygen (DO) level, and shifts in aquatic biota. Efforts need to be made to predict future water temperature in order to understand the timing of the projected river temperature. To do this, the data collected by the Ministry of Environment and the Korea Meteororlogical Administration has been used to build a nonlinear relationship between air and water temperature. The logistic function that includes four different parameters was selected as a working model and the parameters were optimized using SCE algorithm. Weekly average values were used to remove time scaling effect because the time scale affects maximum and minimum temperature and then river environment. Generally speaking nonlinear logistic model shows better performance in NSC and RMSE and nonlinear logistic function is recommendable to build a relationship between air and water temperature in Korea. The results will contribute to determine the future policy regarding water quality and ecosystem for the decision-driving organization.

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Assessment of Runoff and Water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea (기상 관측자료 및 RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 용담댐 유입하천의 유량 및 수온변화 전망)

  • Yi, Hye-Suk;Kim, Dong-sup;Hwang, Man-Ha;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.173-182
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze climate change effects by using statistical trends and a watershed model in the Yongdam dam watershed. The annual average air temperature was found to increase with statistical significance. In particular, greater increases were observed in autumn. Also, this study was performed to evaluate the potential climate change in the streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model (HSPF) with RCP climate change scenarios. The streamflow of Geum river showed a decrease of 5.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in the baseline data for the 2040s and 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the streamflow showed a decrease in the summer and an increase in the winter. The water temperature of Geum river showed an average increase of 0.7~1.0℃. Especially, the water temperature of Geum river showed an increase of 0.3~0.5℃ in the 2040s and 0.5~1.2℃ in the 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the water temperature showed an increase in winter and spring, with a decrease in summer. Therefore, it was determined that a statistical analysis-based meteorological and quantitative forecast of streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model is necessary to assess climate change impact and to establish plans for future water resource management.

Long-term Simulation and Uncertainty Quantification of Water Temperature in Soyanggang Reservoir due to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 소양호의 수온 장기 모의 및 불확실성 정량화)

  • Yun, Yeojeong;Park, Hyungseok;Chung, Sewoong;Kim, Yongda;Ohn, Ilsang;Lee, Seoro
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.14-28
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    • 2020
  • Future climate change may affect the hydro-thermal and biogeochemical characteristics of dam reservoirs, the most important water resources in Korea. Thus, scientific projection of the impact of climate change on the reservoir environment, factoring uncertainties, is crucial for sustainable water use. The purpose of this study was to predict the future water temperature and stratification structure of the Soyanggang Reservoir in response to a total of 42 scenarios, combining two climate scenarios, seven GCM models, one surface runoff model, and three wind scenarios of hydrodynamic model, and to quantify the uncertainty of each modeling step and scenario. Although there are differences depending on the scenarios, the annual reservoir water temperature tended to rise steadily. In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the upper water temperature is expected to rise by 0.029 ℃ (±0.012)/year and 0.048 ℃ (±0.014)/year, respectively. These rise rates are correspond to 88.1 % and 85.7 % of the air temperature rise rate. Meanwhile, the lower water temperature is expected to rise by 0.016 ℃ (±0.009)/year and 0.027 ℃ (±0.010)/year, respectively, which is approximately 48.6 % and 46.3 % of the air temperature rise rate. Additionally, as the water temperatures rises, the stratification strength of the reservoir is expected to be stronger, and the number of days when the temperature difference between the upper and lower layers exceeds 5 ℃ increases in the future. As a result of uncertainty quantification, the uncertainty of the GCM models showed the highest contribution with 55.8 %, followed by 30.8 % RCP scenario, and 12.8 % W2 model.

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water in Nakdong-river Watershed (기후변화에 따른 낙동강 유역 농업용수 영향 분석)

  • Jee, Yong-Keun;Lee, Jin-Hee;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2012
  • For the systemic management and planning of future agricultural water resources, deriving and analyzing the various results of climate change are necessary to respond the uncertainties of climate change. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the rainfall, temperature, and agricultural water requirement targeting in the Nakdong-river's basin periodically according to socioeconomic driving factors under the scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) through the various IPCC GCMs. As a result of future rainfall change (2011~2100), increasing or decreasing tendency of rainfall change for future periods did not show a clear trend for three rainfall observatories, Daegu, Busan and Gumi. The characteristics of the temperature change consistently show a tendency to increase, and in the case of Daegu observatory, high temperature growth was shown. Especially, it was increased by 93.3 % in the period of future3 (2071~2100) for A2 scenario. According to the scenario and periodic analyses on the agricultural water demand, which was thought to be dependent on rainfall and temperature, the agricultural water demand increased at almost every period except during the Period Future1 (2011~2040) with different increase sizes, and the scenario-specific results were shown to be similar. As for areas, the agricultural water demand showed more changes in the sub-basin located by the branch of Nakdong-river than at the mainstream of the River.

Effects of Increased CO2 and Temperature on the Growth of Four Diatom Species (Chaetoceros debilis, Chaetoceros didymus, Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii) in Laboratory Experiments

  • Hyun, Bonggil;Choi, Keun-Hyung;Jang, Pung-Guk;Jang, Min-Chul;Lee, Woo-Jin;Moon, Chang-Ho;Shin, Kyoungsoon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1003-1012
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    • 2014
  • We examined the combined impacts of future increases of $CO_2$ and temperature on the growth of four marine diatoms (Skeletonema costatum, Chaetoceros debilis, Chaetoceros didymus, Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii). The four strains were incubated under four different conditions: present ($pCO_2$: 400ppm, temperature: $20^{\circ}C$), acidification ($pCO_2$: 1000ppm, temperature: $20^{\circ}C$), global warming ($pCO_2$: 400ppm, temperature: $25^{\circ}C$), and greenhouse ($pCO_2$: 1000ppm, temperature: $25^{\circ}C$) conditions. Under the condition of higher temperatures, growth of S. costatum was suppressed, while C. debilis showed enhanced growth. Both C. didymus and T. nodenskioldii showed similar growth rates under current and elevated temperature. None of the four species appeared affected in their cell growth by elevated $CO_2$ concentrations. Chetoceros spp. showed increase of pH per unit fluorescence under elevated $CO_2$ concentrations, but no difference in pH from that under current conditions was observed for either S. costatum or T. nodenskioeldii, implying that Chetoceros spp. can take up more $CO_2$ per cell than the other two diatoms. Our results of cell growth and pH change per unit fluorescence suggest that both C. debilis and C. didymus are better adapted to future oceanic conditions of rising water temperature and $CO_2$ than are S. costatum and T. nodenskioeldii.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Temperature of the Streams in Han-River Basin (기후변화 시나리오별 한강유역의 수계별 수온상승 가능성)

  • Kim, Minhee;Lee, Junghee;Sung, Kyounghee;Lim, Cheolsoo;Hwang, Wonjae;Hyun, Seunghun
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2022
  • Climate change has increased the average air temperature. Rising air temperature are absorbed by water bodies, leading to increasing water temperature. Increased water temperature will cause eutrophication and excess algal growth, which will reduce water quality. In this study, long-term trends of air and water temperatures in the Han-river basin over the period of 1997-2020 were discussed to assess the impacts of climate change. Future (~2100s) levels of air temperature were predicted based on the climate change scenarios (Representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). The results showed that air and water temperatures rose at an average rate of 0.027℃ year-1 and 0.038℃ year-1 respectively, over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020). Future air temperatures under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 increased up to 0.32℃ 1.18℃, 2.14℃, and 3.51℃, respectively. An increasing water temperature could dissolve more minerals from the surrounding rock and will therefore have a higher electrical conductivity. It is the opposite when considering a gas, such as oxygen, dissolved in the water. Water temperature also governs the kinds of organisms that can live in rivers and lakes. Fish, insects, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and other aquatic species all have a preferred temperature range. As temperatures get too far above or below this preferred range, the number of individuals of the species decreases until finally there are none. Therefore, changes of water temperature that are induced by climate change have important implications on water supplies, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems of a watershed.

Reliability Analysis of the GCM Data Downscaling Methods for the Climate-Induced Future Air Temperature Changes in the Coastal Zone (연안 해역의 미래 기온변화 예측을 위한 GCM 자료 Downscaling 기법의 신뢰수준 분석)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Cho, Beom-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.34-41
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    • 2008
  • Future impact of anthropogenic climate-induced change on ecological regime has been an issue and information on water temperature is required for estimating coastal aquatic environment. One way to induce water temperature is to relate water temperature to air temperature and GCM is able to provide future air temperature data to do this. However, GCM data of low spatial resolution doesn't incorporate local or sitespecific air temperature in need of application, and downscaling processes are essential. In this study, a linear regression is used to relate nationally averaged air temperature to local area for the time period of 2000-2005. The RMSE for calibration (2000-2005) is 1.584, while the RMSE for validation is 1.675 for the year 2006 and 1.448 for the year 2007. The NSC for calibration (2000-2005) is 0.962, while the NSC for validation is 0.955 for the year 2006 and 0.963 for the year 2007. The results show that the linear regression is a good tool to relate local air temperature to nationally averaged air temperature with $1.0{\sim}2.0^{\circ}C$ of RMSE. The study will contribute to estimate future impact of climate-induced change on aquatic environment in Korean coastal zone.

Projection of water temperature and stratification strength with climate change in Soyanggang Reservoir in South Korea (기후변화에 따른 소양호 수온 및 성층강도 변화 예측)

  • Yun, Yeojeong;Park, Hyungseok;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.234-247
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    • 2019
  • In a deep lake and reservoir, thermal stratification is of great importance for characteristics of hydrodynamic mixing of the waterbody, and thereby influencesvertical distribution of dissolved oxygen, substances, nutrients, and the phytoplankton community. The purpose of this study, was to project the effect of a future climate change scenario on water temperature, stratification strength, and thermal stability in the Soyanggang Reservoir in the Han River basin of South Korea, using a suite of mathematical models; SWAT, HEC-ResSim, and CE-QUAL-W2(W2). W2 was calibrated with historical data observed 2005-2015. Using climate data generated by HadGEM2-AO with the RCP 4.5 scenario, SWAT predicted daily reservoir inflow 2016-2070, and HEC-ResSim simulated changes in reservoir discharge and water level, based on inflow and reservoir operation rules. Then, W2 was applied, to predict long-term continuous changes of water temperature, in the reservoir. As a result, the upper layer (5 m below water surface) and lower layer (5 m above bottom) water temperatures, were projected to rise $0.0191^{\circ}C/year$(p<0.05) and $0.008^{\circ}C/year$(p<0.05), respectively, in response to projected atmospheric temperature rise rate of $0.0279^{\circ}C/year$(p<0.05). Additionally, with increase of future temperature, stratification strength of the reservoir is projected to be stronger, and the number of the days when temperature difference of the upper layer and the lower layer becomes greater than $5^{\circ}C$, also increase. Increase of water temperature on the surface of the reservoir, affected seasonal growth rate of the algae community. In particular, the growth rate of cyanobacteria increased in spring, and early summer.

Measurement of Irrigation Water Temperature and Preventive Measure against Cold Watter Damage to Paddy Rice (벼의 냉수피해 감소를 위한 관개수온 조사와 대책수립)

  • 정상옥
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 1999
  • Paddy rice is semi-tropical crop and requires warmirrigation water. If mean water temperature at the water source during the growing period is below 18$^{\circ}C$, sime kinds of water warming mechanism should be taken. In this study irrigation water temperature is measured and preventive measures to cold water damage on paddy rice are suggested. Field observations were performed at 100ha field area downtream of the Unmoon reservoir during the growing season of 1997. Land use, canal system, water temperature at irrigation canals. reservoir, and paddy fields were observed. In addition, growth and yield of the rice at selected plots were observed. Accordingly to the record, cold water damage occurred in this area due to the cold irrigation water supply in 1996. It did not occur because of the effective irrigation water management practice in 1997. However, several preventive measures such as pontoon intake system, using existing weir and construting a new warming pond, are suggested to prevent cold water damage in the future. If a new warming pond is construted to raise irrigation water temperature by 2 $^{\circ}C$, a pond area of 2.94 ha is required.

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Adaptive Characteristics of the Longtooth Grouper Epinephelus bruneus according to Stocking Density and Water Temperature (사육밀도와 수온에 따른 자바리(Epinephelus bruneus)의 적응특성)

  • Yang, Sang Geun;Ji, Seung Cheol;Moon, Tae Seok;Son, Maeng Hyun;Kim, Kyong Min;Hur, Sung Pyo;Lee, Chi Hoon;Lee, Young Don
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.847-852
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    • 2014
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of stocking density and water temperature in the rearing of the longtooth grouper Epinephelus bruneus. Juvenile fish [mean body weight (BW)=$6.9{\pm}1.1g$] were raised for 6 weeks, in four density groups of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1 individuals/L. There were no significant differences in weight gain (WG) or specific growth rate (SGR) among the density groups; however, both WG and SGR tended to be higher in the low density group. After 6 weeks of rearing in temperature-controlled water ($23.6{\pm}0.8^{\circ}C$) and ambient temperature water ($19.6{\pm}1.8^{\circ}C$), there were no significant differences in WG or SGR values, but both tended to be higher in the temperature controlled water. The feed efficiency (FE) and daily feed intake (DFI) and WG values were also higher in the temperature-controlled water than in the ambient temperature water. WG values were lower at lower water temperatures. The same pattern was observed for SGR, FE, and FI, all of which exhibited lower values at lower temperatures. In particular, WG, SGR, and FE values all tended to decrease at the $16^{\circ}C$ water temperature. The effects of water temperature on 1-year fish (mean BW = $387.6{\pm}30.2g$) and 3-year fish (mean BW = $1,338.3{\pm}73.8g$) were similar to those of the juvenile fish (0-year fish).