• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.19-23
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• 1973

The method of forecasting advection fog at Busan area in July is developed using the Spreen's scatter-diagraam technique. The used Parameters are (1) air temperature (2) dew-point temperature, (3) sea surface temperature (4) resultantt wind direction (5) resultant wind speed in Busan. The skill score and the pcr cent correct based on 4 yeare of dependent data are 0.79 and 90.3% respectively.

• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.203-214
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• 2016

This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of stratospheric temperature and circulations in the Global Seasonal forecasting model version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast experiment over the period of 1996~2009. Both the tropical and extratropical circulations are considered by analyzing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex (NHPV). Their prediction skills are quantitatively evaluated by computing the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) and Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS), and compared with those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Stratospheric temperature is generally better predicted than tropospheric temperature. Such improved prediction skill, however, rapidly disappears in a month, and a reliable prediction skill is observed only in the tropics, indicating a higher prediction skill in the tropics than in the extratropics. Consistent with this finding, QBO is well predicted more than 6 months in advance. Its prediction skill is significant in all seasons although a relatively low prediction skill appears in the spring when QBO phase transition often takes place. This seasonality is qualitatively similar to the spring barrier of ENSO prediction skill. In contrast, NHPV exhibits no prediction skill beyond one month as in AO prediction skill. In terms of MSSS, both QBO and NHPV are better predicted than their counterparts in the troposphere, i.e., ENSO and AO, indicating that the GloSea5 has a higher prediction skill in the stratosphere than in the troposphere.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제56권9호
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• pp.529-541
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• 2023

기후변화에 따른 가뭄 등 극한 기상을 예측하기 위해, 최근 전 세계적으로 GCMs 모델에 기반하여 향후 7개월까지를 전망하는 계절 기상 전망(Seasonal Forecasts) 기술이 꾸준히 관심을 받고 있다. 그러나 국내에서의 연구 및 적용사례는 많지 않으며, 특히 유역단위에서 그 활용성에 대해서는 검증이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국내 12개 다목적댐 유역에 대해 2011년부터 2020년까지 계절 기상 전망의 정확성을 과거 45년간의 기상 자료(climatology)와 비교하여 평가하였다. 본 연구에서는 ECMWF에서 제공하는 계절 기상 전망의 인자로 향후 수문전망에 활용성이 높은 강수, 기온 그리고 증발산을 선정하였고, 앙상블 전망의 정확성 평가를 위해 Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) 기법을 적용하였다. 또한, 계절 기상 전망에 대해 선형 편의 보정기법(Linear scaling)을 적용하여 그 효과를 평가하였다. 연구결과, 계절 기상 전망이 향후 1개월 간은 climatology와 유사한 정확도를 보이나 전망 리드타임이 증가함에 따라 그 정확도가 크게 낮아지는 특성을 나타냈다. Climatology와 비교하여, 계절적으로는 Dry season보다는 Wet season이 더 나은 결과를 보였으며, 특히 건조했던 2015년과 2017년의 Wet season에서는 장기간에 걸친 전망 정확도가 모두 높게 나타났다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.399-410
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• 1996

Pusan is the largest coastal city with a population of about four mi18ion in Korea. Because of increased and confused traffic, photochemical air pollution become a major urban environmental problem recently. The photo-chemical air pollution weather forecasting method preciser than existing air pollution forecast method has been developed to forecast ozone episode days with meteorological conditions using the data measured at 7 air quality continuous monitoring stations from lune to September using 2 years (1994, 1995). The method developed in present study showed higher percentage correct and skill score than existing air pollution forecasting in KMA ( Korea Meteorological Administration).

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1388-1392
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• 2008

Water resources management depends on dealing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Dealing with these uncertainties remains a challenge. Streamflow forecasts basically contain uncertainties arising from model structure and initial conditions. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling provide an breakthrough for delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The approach here proposes integration and coupling of global climate models (GCM), multiple regional climate models, and numerous hydrological models to improve streamflow forecasting and characterize system uncertainty through generation of ensemble forecasts.

• 대기
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.479-490
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• 2018

This study assesses the prediction skill of regional scale model for the mean temperature anomaly over South Korea produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) chain. The initial and boundary conditions of WRF are derived from PNU CGCM. The hindcast period is 11 years from 2007 to 2017. The model's prediction skill of mean temperature anomaly is evaluated in terms of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC), root mean square error (RMSE) and skill scores which are Heidke skill score (HSS), hit rate (HR), false alarm rate (FAR). The predictions of WRF and PNU CGCM are overall similar to observation (OBS). However, TCC of WRF with OBS is higher than that of PNU CGCM and the variation of mean temperature is more comparable to OBS than that of PNU CGCM. The prediction skill of WRF is higher in March and April but lower in October to December. HSS is as high as above 0.25 and HR (FAR) is as high (low) as above (below) 0.35 in 2-month lead time. According to the spatial distribution of HSS, predictability is not concentrated in a specific region but homogeneously spread throughout the whole region of South Korea.

• 대기
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.215-227
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• 2021

The necessity of the prediction on the Seasonal-to-Subseasonal (S2S) timescale continues to rise. It led a series of studies on the S2S prediction models, including the Global Seasonal Forecasting System Version 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. By extending previous studies, the present study documents sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill around the Korean peninsula in the GloSea5 hindcast over the period of 1991~2010. The overall SST prediction skill is about a week except for the regions where SST is not well captured at the initialized date. This limited prediction skill is partly due to the model mean biases which vary substantially from season to season. When such biases are systematically removed on daily and seasonal time scales the SST prediction skill is improved to 15 days. This improvement is mostly due to the reduced error associated with internal SST variability during model integrations. This result suggests that SST around the Korean peninsula can be reliably predicted with appropriate post-processing.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.273-282
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• 2021

본 연구는 급격한 기술 변화의 흐름 속에서 IT서비스업 분야의 스킬 미스매칭에 대해 살펴보는 것을 목적으로 한다. 전문가 집단에 대한 심층 인터뷰 방식으로 연구가 진행되었다. 숙련노동의 수요자인 기업이 바라보는 IT 산업의 현황과 숙련노동의 공급과 관련된 교육자들이 바라보는 시각에 일부 차이가 있었다. 숙련에 대한 분석 도구로 중요도와 만족도에 대해 5점 척도를 사용하였다. 매칭이 이루어진 경우 주어진 항목들에 대한 중요도의 평균은 3.7점이었고, 만족도의 평균은 3.4점으로, 채용한 인력에 대해 어느 정도의 차이가 존재한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 한편 비전공자 교육생의 숙련도 수준에 대해서는 중요도의 평균이 3.79점이었으나, 만족도의 평균은 3.12점이었다. 학력, 학점, 자격증, 수상경력, 어학능력에 대해서는 중요도를 낮게 평가하는 공통점이 있었다. 전공역량의 중요도에 대해서는 매칭 전 집단에 대한 만족도보다는 매칭이 이뤄진 집단에서의 만족도가 평균 대비 높게 나타났다. 기업이 원하는 숙련은 다차원적인 역량을 포함하며, 주로 soft-skill 항목들과 관련이 높았다. IT 서비스업에 속한 기업들은 숙련 미스매치의 원인으로 산업의 인력구조가 세분화되어 있지 않은 것을 이유로 들었고, 교육기관에서는 시간의 불일치를 꼽았다. 전문가 집단들은 모두 향후 미스매치 갭이 확대될 것으로 보고 있었다. 숙련의 공급은 기술이 변해가는 속도를 따라가지 못할 것이라는 전망이었다. 갭의 해결 방안으로 전문가 모두 산학연 과정을 뽑았으며, 장기적인 안목에서 인력을 육성할 방안을 모색해야 한다고 했다.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.307-327
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• 2015

This study attempts to develop a methodology that analyzes patent applications to identify future skills, in particular in the sector of information security, recently into the spotlight. Matching skill elements from the International Patent Classification (IPC) with skill units from job analysis, the study tries to track trends in the skills needs based on IPC time-pattern. It then verifies the validity of the outlook for future skills needs by addressing the situation through the use of patents. The research assesses the usability of patent information for this type of analysis. While this study is limited to the information security sector by using Korean patent information, it can be expanded in the future to other areas and patents in the United States and Europe.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• 제24권E2호
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• pp.92-101
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• 2008

The objective of this study is to evaluate and improve the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating fog and visibility in local airports over Korea. The WRF model system is statistically evaluated for the 48-fog cases over Korea from 2003 to 2006. Based on the 4-yr evaluations, attempts are made to improve the simulation skill of fog and visibility over Korea by revising the statistical coefficients in the visibility algorithms of the WRF model. A comparison of four existing visibility algorithms in the WRF model shows that uncertainties in the visibility algorithms include additional degree of freedom in accuracy of numerical fog forecasts over Korea. A revised statistical algorithm using a linear-regression between the observed visibility and simulated hydrometeors and humidity near the surface exhibits overall improvement in the visibility forecasts.