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Keyword Network Analysis for Technology Forecasting (기술예측을 위한 특허 키워드 네트워크 분석)

  • Choi, Jin-Ho;Kim, Hee-Su;Im, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.227-240
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    • 2011
  • New concepts and ideas often result from extensive recombination of existing concepts or ideas. Both researchers and developers build on existing concepts and ideas in published papers or registered patents to develop new theories and technologies that in turn serve as a basis for further development. As the importance of patent increases, so does that of patent analysis. Patent analysis is largely divided into network-based and keyword-based analyses. The former lacks its ability to analyze information technology in details while the letter is unable to identify the relationship between such technologies. In order to overcome the limitations of network-based and keyword-based analyses, this study, which blends those two methods, suggests the keyword network based analysis methodology. In this study, we collected significant technology information in each patent that is related to Light Emitting Diode (LED) through text mining, built a keyword network, and then executed a community network analysis on the collected data. The results of analysis are as the following. First, the patent keyword network indicated very low density and exceptionally high clustering coefficient. Technically, density is obtained by dividing the number of ties in a network by the number of all possible ties. The value ranges between 0 and 1, with higher values indicating denser networks and lower values indicating sparser networks. In real-world networks, the density varies depending on the size of a network; increasing the size of a network generally leads to a decrease in the density. The clustering coefficient is a network-level measure that illustrates the tendency of nodes to cluster in densely interconnected modules. This measure is to show the small-world property in which a network can be highly clustered even though it has a small average distance between nodes in spite of the large number of nodes. Therefore, high density in patent keyword network means that nodes in the patent keyword network are connected sporadically, and high clustering coefficient shows that nodes in the network are closely connected one another. Second, the cumulative degree distribution of the patent keyword network, as any other knowledge network like citation network or collaboration network, followed a clear power-law distribution. A well-known mechanism of this pattern is the preferential attachment mechanism, whereby a node with more links is likely to attain further new links in the evolution of the corresponding network. Unlike general normal distributions, the power-law distribution does not have a representative scale. This means that one cannot pick a representative or an average because there is always a considerable probability of finding much larger values. Networks with power-law distributions are therefore often referred to as scale-free networks. The presence of heavy-tailed scale-free distribution represents the fundamental signature of an emergent collective behavior of the actors who contribute to forming the network. In our context, the more frequently a patent keyword is used, the more often it is selected by researchers and is associated with other keywords or concepts to constitute and convey new patents or technologies. The evidence of power-law distribution implies that the preferential attachment mechanism suggests the origin of heavy-tailed distributions in a wide range of growing patent keyword network. Third, we found that among keywords that flew into a particular field, the vast majority of keywords with new links join existing keywords in the associated community in forming the concept of a new patent. This finding resulted in the same outcomes for both the short-term period (4-year) and long-term period (10-year) analyses. Furthermore, using the keyword combination information that was derived from the methodology suggested by our study enables one to forecast which concepts combine to form a new patent dimension and refer to those concepts when developing a new patent.

A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

A Study on the Construal Level and Intention of Autonomous Driving Taxi According to Message Framing (해석수준과 메시지 프레이밍에 따른 자율주행택시의 사용의도에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Seong Jeong;Kim, Min Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.135-155
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference of interpretation level and intention to use message framing when autonomous vehicle, which is emerging as the product of 4th industrial revolution, is used as taxi, Interpretation level refers to the interpretation of a product or service, assuming that it will happen in the near future or in the distant future. Message framing refers to the formation of positive or negative expressions or messages at the extremes of benefits and losses. In other words, previous studies interpret the value of a product or service differently according to these two concepts. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there are differences in intention to use when two concepts are applied when an autonomous vehicle is launched as a taxi. The results are summarized as follows: First, the message format explaining the gain and why should be used when using the autonomous taxi in the message framing configuration, and the loss and how when the autonomous taxi is not used. Messages were constructed and compared. The two message framing differed (t = 3.063), and the message type describing the benefits and reasons showed a higher intention to use. In addition, the results according to interpretation level are summarized as follows. There was a difference in intentions to use when assuming that it would occur in the near future and in the near future with respect to the gain and loss, Respectively. In summary, in order to increase the intention of using autonomous taxis, it is concluded that messages should be given to people assuming positive messages (Gain) and what can happen in the distant future. In addition, this study will be able to utilize the research method in studying intention to use new technology. However, this study has the following limitations. First, it assumes message framing and time without user experience of autonomous taxi. This will be different from the actual experience of using an autonomous taxi in the future. Second, self-driving cars should technical progress is continuing, but laws and institutions must be established in order to commercialize it and build the infrastructure to operate the autonomous car. Considering this fact, the results of this study can not reflect a more realistic aspect. However, there is a practical limit to search for users with sufficient experience in new technologies such as autonomous vehicles. In fact, although the autonomous car to take advantage of the public transportation by taxi is now ready for the road infrastructure, and technical and legal public may not be willing to choose to not have enough knowledge to use the Autonomous cab. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is that by assuming that autonomous cars will be commercialized by taxi you can do to take advantage of the autonomous car, it is necessary to frame the message, why can most effectively be used to find how to deliver. In addition, the research methodology should be improved and future research should be done as follows. First, most students responded in this study. It is also true that it is difficult to generalize the hypotheses to be tested in this study. Therefore, in future studies, it would be reasonable to investigate the population of various distribution considering the age, area, occupation, education level, etc. Where autonomous taxi can be used rather than those who can drive. Second, it is desirable to construct various message framing of the questionnaire, but it is necessary to learn various message framing in advance and to prevent errors in response to the next message framing. Therefore, it is desirable to measure the message framing with a certain amount of time when the questionnaire is designed.

Use of Numerical Simulation for Water Area Observation by Microwave Radar (마이크로웨이브 레이더를 이용한 수역관측에 있어서의 수치 시뮬레이션 이용)

  • Yoshida, Takero;Rheem, Chang-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.208-218
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    • 2012
  • Numerical simulation technique has been developed to calculate microwave backscattering from water surface. The simulation plays a role of a substitute for experiments. Validation of the simulation was shown by comparing with experimental results. Water area observations by microwave radar have been simulated to evaluate algorithms and systems. Furthermore, the simulation can be used to understand microwave scattering mechanism on the water surface. The simulation has applied to the various methods for water area observations, and the utilizations of the simulation are introduced in this paper. In the case of fixed radar, we show following examples, 1. Radar image with a pulse Doppler radar, 2. Effect of microwave irradiation width and 3. River observation (Water level observation). In addition, another application (4.Synthetic aperture radar image) is also described. The details of the applications are as follows. 1. Radar image with a pulse Doppler radar: A new system for the sea surface observation is suggested by the simulation. A pulse Doppler radar is assumed to obtain radar images that display amplitude and frequency modulation of backscattered microwaves. The simulation results show that the radar images of the frequency modulation is useful to measure sea surface waves. 2. Effect of microwave irradiation width: It is reported (Rheem[2008]) that microwave irradiation width on the sea surface affects Doppler spectra measured by a CW (Continuous wave) Doppler radar. Therefore the relation between the microwave irradiation width and the Doppler spectra is evaluated numerically. We have shown the suitable condition for wave height estimation by a Doppler radar. 3. River observation (Water level observation): We have also evaluated algorithms to estimate water current and water level of river. The same algorithms to estimate sea surface current and sea surface level are applied to the river observation. The simulation is conducted to confirm the accuracy of the river observation by using a pulse Doppler radar. 4. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image: SAR images are helpful to observe the global sea surface. However, imaging mechanisms are complicated and validation of analytical algorithms by SAR images is quite difficult. In order to deal with the problems, SAR images in oceanic scenes are simulated.

The research for the yachting development of Korean Marina operation plans (요트 발전을 위한 한국형 마리나 운영방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong Jong-Seok;Hugh Ihl
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.28 no.10 s.96
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    • pp.899-908
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    • 2004
  • The rise of income and introduction of 5 day a week working system give korean people opportunities to enjoy their leisure time. And many korean people have much interest in oceanic sports such as yachting and also oceanic leisure equipments. With the popularization and development of the equipments, the scope of oceanic activities has been expanding in Korea just as in the advanced oceanic countries. However, The current conditions for the sports in Korea are not advanced and even worse than underdeveloped countries. In order to develop the underdeveloped resources of Korean marina, we need to customize the marina models of advanced nations to serve the specific needs and circumstances of Korea As such we have carried out a comparative analysis of how Austrailia, Newzealand, Singapore, japan and Malaysia operate their marina, reaching the following conclusions. Firstly, in marina operations, in order to protect personal property rights and to preserve the environment, we must operate membership and non-membership, profit and non-profit schemes separately, yet without regulating the dress code entering or leaving the club house. Secondly, in order to accumulate greater value added, new sporting events should be hosted each year. There is also the need for an active use of volunteers, the generation of greater interest in yacht tourism, and the simplification of CIQ procedures for foreign yachts as well as the provision of language services. Thirdly, a permanent yacht school should be established, and classes should be taught by qualified instructors. Beginners, intermediary, and advanced learner classes should be managed separately with special emphasis on the dinghy yacht program for children. Fourthly, arrival and departure at the moorings must be regulated autonomically, and there must be systematic measures for the marina to be able, in part, to compensate for loss and damages to equipment, security and surveillance after usage fees have been paid for. Fifthly, marine safety personnel must be formed in accordance with Korea's current circumstances from civilian organizations in order to be used actively in benchmarking, rescue operations, and oceanic searches at times of disaster at sea.

The Accidents Analysis for Safety Training in The Container Terminal (컨테이너터미널에서 안전교육이 사고에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Cha, Sang-Hyun;Noh, Chang-Kyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2016
  • Our country, which relies on maritime transport a majority of import and export trade volume and faced with unexpected accidents, it is difficult to operate the normal function of container terminal. It also caused by reliability issue raised is likely to be given a blow to the new volumes to attract and maintain existing volumes. Under this views, the container terminal is a situation that highlights the role of the harbor workers and cope with aggressive work to provide the best quality services to customers 365 days. On these grounds, the heavy work burden is passed on to the harbor workers and caused accidents every year. The study was analyzed the safety status of the container terminal under the real following the conditions as disaster status analysis, insufficient safety training circumstances and safety training from 2012 year to 2015 in the target current K.Y terminal. As a result of equipments safety training analysis, it shows that 2012 year happened 45 cases and 31 cases in 2013 year until not practicing the training over the Gantry Crane equipment. One hand 23 cases took place in 2014 while preparation training and the other intensive training period of 2015, 8 cases occurred. it shows that 2012 year happened 13 cases and 19 cases in 2013 year until not practicing the training over the Transfer Crane equipment. One hand 12 cases took place in 2014 while preparation training and the other intensive training period of 2015, 8 cases occurred. it shows that 2012 year happened 9 cases and 9 cases in 2013 year until not practicing the training over the Yard Tractor equipment. One hand 9 cases took place in 2014 while preparation training and the other intensive training period of 2015, 4 cases occurred. Because safety training of the container terminal was given to greatly impact on the mandatory safety training, self-educational enforcement and specified equipments safety training, hence the container terminal is to strengthen the safety education to prevent accidents in advance.

Modern approach of the discourse on viscera and bowels and retrogressive disorder (사상의학(四象醫學) 장부론(臟腑論)의 현대적 접근과 퇴행성질환의 조건)

  • Cho, Hwang-sung
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.84-100
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    • 2000
  • Are the body and th spirit to different things? How individual ability and feeling displays in a human being and what correation between the two lise physiologically? Namely, what determines the external and the internal world? By what physiological functions and circulations, it makes possible to indciate individual's characteristic? These kinds of questions in constitutional medicine is able us lead to the following approach.

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A Study on the Strategies of Growth in Small & Medium Construction Firms (강원지방 중소건설업의 성장전략에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Beom-Jin;Cho, Chang-Jin
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.53-80
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    • 2006
  • This research has been accomplished to build up the growth strategies of Kangwon district's small & medium-sized construction firms. For this purpose, we made an investigation of the present situation and status for existing regional small & medium construction firms by analyzing data. Based on the results from this study, the following growth strategies are suggested to gain their competitive advantages. Firstly, most of all, the role of the top manager is the most important factor since most of the top manager for the small & medium-sized construction firms coincide with the owner the firms. Secondly, the specialization strategy is to establish. Above all they concentrate their business capacities on core business. Then, this growth strategy should be based on the selective escalation of functions in order to maintain an appropriate level of construction works. Thirdly, the specialized skills and skilled workers are ensured for competitive advantages. For human resource development, they should train workers to be multi-functioned on the assumption the they could stay at firm until they wish to retire. Finally, the government must also spare no effort to encourage the small & medium-sized construction firms to build up it's competitive power and cultivate it's spontaneous generation power though the reformation of system related whit the small and medium construction industry.

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Clinical Analysis of the Results following Meniscal Suture (반월상 연골 파열환자에서 봉합술 후 결과 분석)

  • Bae, Dae-Kyung;Yoon, Kyoung-Ho;Jeong, Ki-Woong;Kwon, Chang-Hyeok;Shin, Neung-Choel
    • Journal of the Korean Arthroscopy Society
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : To clinically analyze 62 patients who had meniscal repair and compare the results according to methods of repair. Materials and Methods : Between May 1997 and June 1998, we repaired 68 torn menisci in 68 patients. There were 52 male and 10 female with an average age of 26.9 years(ranging from 6 to 51 years). We used Linvatec suture in 46 knees(group A)and meniscal arrow in 16 knees(B group). In six knees we used Linvatec and meniscal arrow both. These 6 knees were excluded and 62 of 68 repaired meniscus were analyzed in this study. Average follow-up period was 18.5 months(ranging 12 to 26 months). We evaluated clinical results by Tapper and Hoover's grading system and subjective symptoms of the patients. Results : There were excellent in 47 cases$(76\%)$, good in 12$(19\%)$ and fair in 3$(5\%)$. In group A, there were excellent in 35 cases$(76\%)$, good in 9$(20\%)$ and fair in 2$(4\%)$. In group B, there were excellent in 12 cases$(75\%)$, good in 3$(19\%)$ and fair in 1$(6\%)$. There was no significant differences in clinical results between two groups. But mean operative time taken for meniscus repair was 40 minutes in group A and 25 minutes in group B. Conclusion : We can obtain good clinical results with short operation time in meniscal repair by proper selection of methods of repair according to the type, location, and size of meniscal tear and associated lesions.

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The Actual Conditions and Improvement of the Eco-Forests Mater Plan, South Korea (우리나라 생태숲조성 기본계획 실태 및 개선방향)

  • Heo, Jae-Yong;Kim, Do-Gyun;Jeong, Jeong-Chae;Lee, Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.235-248
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to the actual conditions and improvement of the eco-forests master plan in South Korea, and suggested its problems and improvement direction. Results from survey and analysis of limiting factors or constraints in the construction plans of eco-forests in Korea revealed that there were highly frequent problems involving site feasibility, topographic aspect, and existing vegetation. The results of survey on the status of land use indicated that the average ratio of the use of private estate was 29.7%, so then it was estimated that a great amount of investment in purchase of eco-forest site would be required. Results from survey on major introduced facilities showed that there was high frequency of introduction of infrastructure, building facility, recreational facility, convenience facility, and information facility, and that there was low frequency of introduction of plant culture system, ecological facility, structural symbol and sculpture, and the likes. There was just one eco-forest park where more than 500 species of plants grew, and the result of investigation indicated that the diversity of plant species in 11 eco-forest parks was lower than the standards for construction of eco-forest. Results from analysis of the projects costs revealed that investment cost in facilities was higher than planting costs, and that a large amount of investment was made in the initial stage of the project. There was no planned budget for the purpose of cultivating and maintaining the plants and vegetation after construction of eco-forest. The basic concepts in construction of eco-forests were established according to the guidelines presented by the Korea Forest Service; however, the detailed work of the project was planned with its user-oriented approach. Then the construction of eco-forest was being planned following the directions, which would lead to development of a plant garden similar to arboretum or botanical garden. Therefore, it is required that the architect who designs eco-forest as well as the public officer concerned firmly establish the concepts of eco-forest, and that, through close analysis of development conditions, a candidate site to fit the purpose of constructing eco-forest be selected, and also a substantive management plan be established upon completion of construction of eco-forest.