• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.384-398
• /
• 2015

In this paper, the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting/Noah-MultiParameterization (WRF/Noah-MP) modeling system is configured for the Cheongmicheon Farmland site in Korea (CFK), and its performance in land and atmospheric simulation is evaluated using the observed data at CFK during the 2014 special observation period (21 August-10 September). In order to explore the usefulness of turning on Noah-MP dynamic vegetation in midterm simulations of surface and atmospheric variables, two numerical experiments are conducted without dynamic vegetation and with dynamic vegetation (referred to as CTL and DVG experiments, respectively). The main results are as following. 1) CTL showed a tendency of overestimating daytime net shortwave radiation, thereby surface heat fluxes and Bowen ratio. The CTL experiment showed reasonable magnitudes and timing of air temperature at 2 m and 10 m; especially the small error in simulating minimum air temperature showed high potential for predicting frost and leaf wetness duration. The CTL experiment overestimated 10-m wind and precipitation, but the beginning and ending time of precipitation were well captured. 2) When the dynamic vegetation was turned on, the WRF/Noah-MP system showed more realistic values of leaf area index (LAI), net shortwave radiation, surface heat fluxes, Bowen ratio, air temperature, wind and precipitation. The DVG experiment, where LAI is a prognostic variable, produced larger LAI than CTL, and the larger LAI showed better agreement with the observed. The simulated Bowen ratio got closer to the observed ratio, indicating reasonable surface energy partition. The DVG experiment showed patterns similar to CTL, with differences for maximum air temperature. Both experiments showed faster rising of 10-m air temperature during the morning growth hours, presumably due to the rapid growth of daytime mixed layers in the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme. The DVG experiment decreased errors in simulating 10-m wind and precipitation. 3) As horizontal resolution increases, the models did not show practical improvement in simulation performance for surface fluxes, air temperature, wind and precipitation, and required three-dimensional observation for more agricultural land spots as well as consistency in model topography and land cover data.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.603-620
• /
• 2009

New Pochonka published in the eighteenth century of the Choson dynasty was composed of star-charts based on the new observations made by Jesuits in China and songs corrected a little bit from previous version of Pochonka. The asterisms in the previous Pochonka are listed in the same order to that in the Song dynasty's literature; while the asterisms in the new Pochonka are listed in accordance with Pu-tien-ko published in China after the Ming dynasty. The Chinese-style twelve-equatorial-section system is adopted in the new Pochonka, while in its song is adopted the zodiac system, which can be seen in the star-charts of previous version of Pochonka. The asterisms belonging to three or four neighboring lunar-mansions are drawn in one chart. Each chart covers asterisms not belonging to a certain range of right ascension, but to a certain lunar mansion. We estimate the forming era of the new Pochonka from the following facts; that the Ling-Tai-I-Hsiang-Chih was used to make charts and footnotes whose archetype can be found in the Chinese literature around A.D. 1700, that these Chinese books were imported into Choson in A.D. 1709, that the naming taboo to the emperor Khang-Hsi was used, that the order of Shen-Hsiu (參宿) was transposed with Tshui-Hsiu (자宿), and that the new Pochonka was substituted for the old version when the rules of Royal Astronomical Bureau was reformed in A.D. 1791. In conclusion, the parent sources of the charts and footnotes of the new Pochonka might be imported from the Ching dynasty around 1709 A.D. to form the new Pochonka between A.D. 1709 and A.D. 1791, and finally to be published in A.D. 1792. We discuss the possible future works to make a firm conclusion.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.43-52
• /
• 2012

As experiential education services are growing, the need for proper management is increasing. Considering that adequate measures are an essential factor for achieving success in managing something, it is important for managers to use a proper system of metrics to measure the performance of experiential education services. However, in spite of this need, little research has been done to develop a valid and reliable set of metrics for assessing the quality of experiential education services. The current study aims to develop a multi-item instrument for assessing the service quality of experiential education. The specific procedure is as follows. First, we generated a pool of possible metrics based on diverse literature on service quality. We elicited possiblemetric items not only from general service quality metrics such as SERVQUAL and SERVPERF but also from educational service quality metrics such as HEdPERF and PESPERF. Second, specialist teachers in the experiential education area screened the initial metrics to boost face validity. Third, we proceeded with multiple rounds of empirical validation of those metrics. Based on this processes, we refined the metrics to determine the final metrics to be used. Fourth, we examined predictive validity by checking the well-established positive relationship between each dimension of metrics and customer satisfaction. In sum, starting with the initial pool of scale items elicited from the previous literature and purifying them empirically through the surveying method, we developed a four-dimensional systemized scale to measure the superiority of experiential education and named it "Experiential Education PERFormance" (EEPERF). Our findings indicate that students (consumers) perceive the superiority of the experiential education (EE) service in the following four dimensions: EE-empathy, EE-reliability, EE-outcome, and EE-landscape. EE-empathy is a judgment in response to the question, "How empathetically does the experiential educational service provider interact with me?" Principal measures are "How well does the service provider understand my needs?," and "How well does the service provider listen to my voice?" Next, EE-reliability is a judgment in response to the question, "How reliably does the experiential educational service provider interact with me?" Major measures are "How reliable is the schedule here?," and "How credible is the service provider?" EE-outcome is a judgmentin response to the question, "What results could I get from this experiential educational service encounter?" Representative measures are "How good is the information that I will acquire form this service encounter?," and "How useful is this service encounter in helping me develop creativity?" Finally, EE-landscape is a judgment about the physical environment. Essential measures are "How convenient is the access to the service encounter?,"and "How well managed are the facilities?" We showed the reliability and validity of the system of metrics. All four dimensions influence customer satisfaction significantly. Practitioners may use the results in planning experiential educational service programs and evaluating each service encounter. The current study isexpected to act as a stepping-stone for future scale improvement. In this case, researchers may use the experience quality paradigm that has recently arisen.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.25-36
• /
• 1995

It is important to separate the compostables from waste for successful operation of composting plant, since various compositions are mixed in it. For the separation of compostables, it is necessary to estimate total amounts of compostables from several sources. Based on it, required capacity and number of composting plant as well as proper waste collection and transportation system can be determined. So, amounts of garbage, major target material for composting. were estimated in this study. In survey of unit garbage generation(UGG). different estimation results would be obtained depending on the basis of its measurement. However, previous researches did not consider it. In this paper, the correlations between area and the number of user of garbage source were analyzed to find the related equations which were apllyed to estimation of total generation. Obtained results are as the following. Relative variations of measured UGG based on area and custumer are 62.5 and 52.8, respectively. In linear regression, related equation between area and custumer was Y=0.244X+59.0 (X=area, Y=custumer). The correlation factor r is 0.904. Equation Y=616.5X/(X+1215.4) was also obtained from linear regression using Monod equation (r=0.720). From the first order equation and measured data of UGG based on custumer, amounts of garbage generation from restaurant in Seoul and the whole country were calculated to 2043.9 ton/d and 9014.0 ton/d, respectively. But, the values calculated from measured data of UGG based on area were as low as 821.3 ton/d Cin Seoul) and 3821.0 ton/d(in the whole country). Consequently, the measurement of unit garbage generation based on the number of custumer was more favorable to lessen the points of survey and to guarantee the representative values. Especially, it would fit well on restaurant having statistics of area.

• Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.245-252
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of glide path on canal centering ratio after instrumentation with different single file systems; WaveOne and Reciproc. Reciproc R25 (VDW), WaveOne Primary (Dentsply Maillefer) and PathFile #13, 16, 19 (Dentsply Maillefer) were used in this study. In no glide path groups, Reciproc files and WaveOne files used for canal preparation without glide path. In glide path groups, the PathFile were used before canal preparation. Methylene blue dye was introduced into the canal to obtain a clear pre-instrumentation image. Pre-instrumentation images and post-instrumentation images were scanned using Epson Perfection V700 Photo scanner (Epson, Nagano, Japan). Transparencies of post-instrumentation images were changed and superimposed on pre-instrumentation images using Adobe Photoshop CS 3 (Adobe Systems Incorporated, San Jose, CA, USA). The centering ratio was calculated for each instrumented canal using the following formula: CR=|X1-X2|/Y. It was statistically analyzed using two-way ANOVA at 95% confidential level. The centering ratio in glide path groups were significant less than it in no glide path groups at 3, 4, 5 and 6 mm level. Except 1 and 6 mm level, WaveOne groups had significant less centering ration than Reciproc groups. At 6 mm level, there was no significant difference between WaveOne and Reciproc. In the limitation of this study, creation of a previous glide path before reciprocating motion instrumentation in curved canal appears to be appropriate and WaveOne system can be used for preparation of curved canal without severe aberrations.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.69-91
• /
• 1990

A major change in tariff rates was made in January 1989 in Korea. The benchmark tariff rate, which applies to about two thirds of all commodity items, was lowered to 15 percent from 20 percent. In addition, the variation in tariff rates among different types of commodities was reduced. This paper examines the economic impact of the tariff reform using a multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Korean economy which was introduced by Lee and Chang(1988), and by Lee(1988). More specifically, this paper attempts to find the changes in imports, exports, domestic production, consumption, prices, and employment in 31 different sectors of the economy induced by the reform in tariff rates. The policy simulations are made according to three different methods. First, tariff changes in industries are calculated strictly according to the change in legal tariff rates, which tend to over-estimate the size of the tariff reduction given the tariff-drawback system and tariff exemption applied to various import items. Second, tariff changes in industries are obtained by dividing the estimated tariff revenues of each industry by the estimated imports for that industry, which are often called actual tariff rates. According to the first method, the import-weighted average tariff rate is lowered from 15.2% to 10.2%, while the second method changes the average tariff rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. In the third method, the tariff-drawback system is internalized in the model. This paper reports the results of the policy simulation according to all three methods, comparing them with one another. It is argued that the second method yields the most realistic estimate of the changes in macro-economic variables, while the third method is useful in delineating the differences in impact across industries. The findings, according to the second method, show that the tariff reform induces more imports in most sectors. Garments, leather products, and wood products are those industries in which imports increase by more than 5 percent. On the other hand, imports in agricultural, mining and service sectors are least affected. Domestic production increases in all sectors except the following: leather products, non-metalic products, chemicals, paper and paper products, and wood-product industries. The increase in production and employment is largest in export industries, followed by service industries. An impact on macroeconomic variables is also simulated. The tariff reform increases nominal GNP by 0.26 percent, lowers the consumer price index by 0.49 percent, increases employment by 0.24 percent, and worsens the trade balance by 480 million US dollars, through a rise in exports of 540 million US dollars and a rise in imports of 1.02 billion US dollars.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.1-21
• /
• 1974

A considerable change of the Korean nursing system has been made during the last decade not only in its philosophy but also in its function and structure to meet political and scientific need of the modern society. The main purpose of this study is to develope the new concept of comprehensive nursing care, both its Philosophy and ethics, as the basic of modern clinical nursing theory and practice. Comprehensive nursing care is the concept of human centered nursing care, and it helps a man to meet the basic physical, psychological, environmental, socioeconomic and teaching needs. It also helps him to help himself to meet these needs. This concept starts from the individualized nursing care and its ultimate goal is to improve a man to have a better position in his own community so that he may able to have a meaningful life. To accomplish this goal, an individualized nursing care plan as a nursing diagnosis and problem solving method should be set up for different patients with similar diagnosis to meet their needs, because each patient has a different social background. from this viewpoint, nursing is a science as well as abstruse humanity. The performance of comprehensive nursing care is a goal and issue of modern clinical nursing care. If nursing is a science and a profession for man, it should have ethics which recognize the dignity of man and offers infinite service voluntarily, and should be able to show leadership in carrying out the nursing responsibility. This leadership finds a person's potential and encourages him to utilize it. Such concepts should develop into a nursing ideology and this ideology should become a priority in comprehensive nursing care. The following statements are the conclusion of this study. 1) Modern nursing has been developed from disease centered nursing care to comprehensive nursing care based on humanity. The primary principle of nursing was to assist in the treatment of disease, but it has been changed to the professional nursing system independently. 2) The concept of nursing is one of continuous or endless scope of dispersion. It proves that nursing is grasping the professional responsibility to be able to coordinate scientific principles Patient health problems are according to scientific principles rather than adhering to nursing technical discipline as a daily work. 3) In chapter I and Ⅱ, the philosophy and ideology of nursing have been discussed and the flow of concept of clinical nursing and the rate of progress which emerges from naturalizing performance of the concept of comprehensive nursing in clinical nursing studied. The discussion developed the theory that a nurse should be to embody nursing ideas and objectives by establishing definite conviction of professions and study. 4) In chapter lil, nursing planning based on nursing diagnosis as a method to attain ideal nursing care for humanity with a definite idea of establishing philosophy of nursing was presented. 5) From the result of survey on patient needs about treatment and nursing, it was observed that all patient had emotional stress from unknown factors. Therefore it was concluded that nurses should not only educate the patient but also give them the opportunity to communicate freely their needs and anxieties. Furthermore complaints and doubts of the patient should be carefully noted and must be considered to meet these needs. 6) Patient teaching is the most important part of comprehensive nursing care. In chapter, Ⅲ, the important of patient teaching was emphasized by demonstrating the effect of patient teaching for diabetic patient. 7) In Chapter Ⅳ, from the result of the study on nurses attitudes to comprehensive nursing care, it was pointed that the evolution of nursing education and the establishment of a complete concept and value of comprehensive nursing was necessary.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.506-525
• /
• 1992

Older people, because of the psychological and physiological changes related to the aging process are more vulnerable to experiencing powerlessness than any other age group. This self destructive cycle of depression in older people related to the experience of continued and long term powerlessness can lead even to death. The purpose of this study was to measure powerlessness and resources to increase power in older people, and to measure the effectiveness of a psychological rehabilitation program for reducing powerlessness. The research methodology used was a two step process. In the first step, a survey was done of perceived powerlessness and power resources comparing four groups of elderly people ; those living at home, those in hospital, those living in nursing homes and those attending educational programs for the elderly. The total sample size was 236. In the second step, a psychological rehabilitation program was carried out, pre and post measurements were taken related to this program. The sample consisted of 29 residents in a nursing home. The results of the study are as follows : 1. Powerlessness was classified as cognitive, emotional, activity and learning. The lowest score for powerlessness was in the area of activity, that is the people in the sample felt more power concerning their activities. The highest score was in the area of cognition where they felt they had less power. 2. When the different groups of elderly were compared, it was found that the residents of the nursing home had the highest score on perceived powerlessness and the group who were living at home had the lowest score. 3. Among the general characteristics, the factors influencing the powerlessness score were age, sex, level of education, financial resources and health status. In the interaction effects among these factors, it was found that level of education and health status were factors influencing perceived powerlessness. The elderly with lower education and poorer health status had the higher scores for perceived powerlessness. 4. The power resources could be classified into the following areas : physical strength, emotional strength, positive self-image, energy, knowledge, motivation and belief system. Belief system was given the highest score among the power resources and energy, knowledge and motivation were given low scores. 5. The group participating in an educational program for the elderly had the highest score for power resources while the group made up of residents of a nursing home had the lowest score as well as the highest score for perceived powerlessness. 6. The factors influencing the power resource scores were sex, level of education, financial resources and health status. In the analysis of the interaction effect among the factors, it was found that sex, level of education and financial resources were the factors that influenced the power resource score, that is, women, those with a low level of education and those with poor financial resources reported a lower level of power resources. 7. There was a negative correlation between perceived powerlessness and power resources in the elderly in this study. Since power resources explainded 49% of the variance for powerlessness, it can be concluded that the power resources can be used to reduce powerlessness. 8. The psychological rehabilitation program was carried out with the nursing home residents over a period of five weeks. No statistically significant difference was found in the scores on powerlessness between the pre and post tests, but there was a slight decrease in the raw scores on the post test for emotional, activity and learning powerlessness. There was a statistically significant increase in the power resource scores for emotional strength, positive self-image, energy, knowledge and motivation in the post test as compared to the pre test. In conclusion, the study indicates that a psychological rehabilitation program for the elderly could be effective in increasing power resources and this in turn could lead to a decrease in perceived powerlessness.

• Journal of Home Health Care Nursing
• /
• v.6
• /
• pp.5-18
• /
• 1999

This study was attempt to encourage for developing on rehabilitation delivery system and programs as a substitute service instead of hospitalization for accident patients at work, such as hospital based home health care nursing service. It needs vary substitutes service of hospitalization to curtail the length of stay for inpatients who were hospitalized with workers compensation insurance. It focused on developing an estimation of early discharge day of accident inpatients based on a detail statement of treatment for 115 inpatients who were hospitalized at General Hospital in 1997. This study has four specific purpose as follows. First, to find out the status of health service utilization. Second, to estimate the early discharge days and income increasing effect based on the early discharge for those patients. Third, to identify the factors to affect total medical expenditure and the length of stay for those inpatients. Forth, to figure out the need of utilizing home health care nursing service for accident patients. In order to analyze of the length of stay and medical expenditure for inpatients who were hospitalized due to the accident, the authors conducted with micro-analysis and macroanalysis from medical records and medical expenditure records. Micro-analysis was done by nominal group discussion of 4 expertise with the critical criteria. such as a decrease in the amount of treatment after surgery, treatments, tests, drugs and changes in the tests consistency, drug methods, vital signs, start of ROM exercise, doctor's order, patient's outside visiting ability, stable conditions. In addition to identify affected variables for medical expenditure. the length of stay and income effect due to early discharge day, the data was analyzed with multiple regression analysis and linear regression analysis model by SPSS-PC for windows and Excell program. Results of this study as follows. First, the mean length of stay was 37.1 days, whereas the mean length of stay due to early discharge was 28.2 days at the hospital. The estimation of early discharge days were shown that depends on the length of stay. The longer length of stay, the longer length of early discharge days, such as under 7 days length of stay patients was to estimated the mean length of stay was 4.9 days and early discharge days was 4.6. whereas the mean length of stay was 122.6 days and early discharge days was 92.0 respectively. The mean medical expenditure per day were found to be 133.409 Won. whereas the mean medical expenditure per day was shown negative linear trends according to the length of stay at the hospital. The estimation results of the income effect due to 11 early discharge days per bed was around 2,150,000 won. However, it means not the real benefits from early discharge, but the income increasing amount without considering medical prime cost in general hospital. Therefore, it needs further analysis on the cost containments and benefits under the considering as well turn over rates per bed as the medical prime costs. The length of stay was most significant and the sign was positive to the total medical expenditure, as expected. Surgery and patient's residential area also an important variable in explaining medical expenditure. The level of complications was most significant variable in explaining the length of stay. The level of the needs on horne health care nursing service which can be used for early discharge accident patients were shown very high. The needs distribution varied from 65.5% of patients and 88.9% of caregivers, to 96.4% of doctors, and 99.1% of nurses. In addition horne health nurse responded that they can be managed the accident inpatients from early discharge. From these research findings. the following suggestions has been drawn it needs to develop strategies on rehabilitation delivery system in order to focused on consumer's side which is planned for 21 century health policy in Korea. Vary intermediate facilities and horne health care would have been developed in the community based for comprehensive rehabilitation services as a substitutes of hospitalization for shortening the length of stay of hospitalizations. In hospital based horne health care nursing service, it's available immediately to utilize for the patients who wanted rehabilitation services as a substitutes of hospitalization under the cooperations with workers compensation insurance company.