• Title/Summary/Keyword: flood warning model

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Estimation of Flash Flood Guidance considering Uncertainty of Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려한 돌발홍수기준)

  • Lee, Keon-Haeng;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2010
  • The flash flood is characterized as flood leading to damage by heavy rainfall occurred in steep slope and impervious area with short duration. Flash flood occurs when rainfall exceeds Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). So, the accurate estimation of FFG will be helpful in flash flood forecasting and warning system. Say, if we can reduce the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff relationship, FFG can be estimated more accurately. However, since the rainfall-runoff models have their own parameter characteristics, the uncertainty of FFG will depend upon the selection of rainfall-runoff model. This study used four rainfall-runoff models of HEC-HMS model, Storage Function model, SSARR model and TANK model for the estimation of models' uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we derived the confidence limits of rainfall-runoff relationship by four models on 95%-confidence level.

Real-Time Forecast of Rainfall Impact on Urban Inundation (강우자료와 연계한 도시 침수지역의 사전 영향예보)

  • KEUM, Ho-Jun;KIM, Hyun-Il;HAN, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.76-92
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to establish database of rainfall inundation area by rainfall scenarios and conduct a real time prediction for urban flood mitigation. the data leaded model was developed for the mapping of inundated area with rainfall forecast data provided by korea meteorological agency. for the construction of data leaded model, 1d-2d modeling was applied to Gangnam area, where suffered from severe flooding event including september, 2010. 1d-2d analysis result agree with observed in term of flood depth. flood area and flood occurring report which maintained by NDMS(national disaster management system). The fitness ratio of the NDMS reporting point and 2D flood analysis results was revealed to be 69.5%. Flood forecast chart was created using pre-flooding database. It was analyzed to have 70.3% of fitness in case of flood forecast chart of 70mm, and 72.0% in case of 80mm flood forecast chart. Using the constructed pre-flood area database, it is possible to present flood forecast chart information with rainfall forecast, and it can be used to secure the leading time during flood predictions and warning.

Scenario Analysis of Flood Travel Time using Hydraulic Model in Downstream of Nakdong River (수리학적 모형을 이용한 낙동강 하류구간에서의 홍수도달시간 시나리오 분석)

  • Choi, Hyungu;Lee, Eulrae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2015
  • Modification of travel time is necessary in all Nakdong river basin because hydrological conditions of Nakdong river basin were changed after major rivers project. Also calculation of flood travel time at between sections of weirs is necessary. In this study, flood travel time was calculated using hydraulic model and the latest topographical data from Changnyeong-Haman weir to Nakdong river estuary bank. Analysis of discharge and stage conditions were carried out. 84 of the scenarios were organized according to flow rate, discharge type, boundary conditions, and tributary conditions. Flood travel time of initial and peak were calculated with discharge and stage conditions, respectively. The results of this study will be available in practical business work such as flood forecast warning and weir operation on algae removal.

Flow Assessment and Prediction in the Asa River Watershed using different Artificial Intelligence Techniques on Small Dataset

  • Kareem Kola Yusuff;Adigun Adebayo Ismail;Park Kidoo;Jung Younghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.95-95
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    • 2023
  • Common hydrological problems of developing countries include poor data management, insufficient measuring devices and ungauged watersheds, leading to small or unreliable data availability. This has greatly affected the adoption of artificial intelligence techniques for flood risk mitigation and damage control in several developing countries. While climate datasets have recorded resounding applications, but they exhibit more uncertainties than ground-based measurements. To encourage AI adoption in developing countries with small ground-based dataset, we propose data augmentation for regression tasks and compare performance evaluation of different AI models with and without data augmentation. More focus is placed on simple models that offer lesser computational cost and higher accuracy than deeper models that train longer and consume computer resources, which may be insufficient in developing countries. To implement this approach, we modelled and predicted streamflow data of the Asa River Watershed located in Ilorin, Kwara State Nigeria. Results revealed that adequate hyperparameter tuning and proper model selection improve streamflow prediction on small water dataset. This approach can be implemented in data-scarce regions to ensure timely flood intervention and early warning systems are adopted in developing countries.

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Comparison of the Rainfall-Runoff Models for Flood Forecasting in Watershed (하천 수계의 홍수 예측을 위한 강우-유출 모형의 비교)

  • 심순보;박노혁
    • Water for future
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.237-247
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    • 1996
  • In this study two rainfall-runoff models, the NWS-PC model and the Storage Function Model (SFM), were compared to see their applicability in the flood forecasting at the river system. The SFM has been adopted in the flood-forecasting and warning system for the major rivers in Korea since 1974, and the NWS-PC model, a physically based model, has been developed to simulate soil moisture changing as well as the surface and subsurface flow at the watershed and in the river streams. Case studies were carried out using flood event data observed at the Mihochun watershed in Geum-river basin during 1985 to 1995. Simulated results from both models were compared with the observed data with respect to the RMS errors and relative errors for peak flow discharges and total runoff volumes to show the advantages and disadvantages of both models and to suggest the way to improve their performances.

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Development of a shot noise process based rainfall-runoff model for urban flood warning system (도시홍수예경보를 위한 shot noise process 기반 강우-유출 모형 개발)

  • Kang, Minseok;Yoo, Chulsang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2018
  • This study proposed a rainfall-runoff model for the purpose of real-time flood warning in urban basins. The proposed model was based on the shot noise process, which is expressed as a sum of shot noises determined independently with the peak value, decay parameter and time delay of each sub-basin. The proposed model was different from other rainfall-runoff models from the point that the runoff from each sub-basin reaches the basin outlet independently. The model parameters can be easily determined by the empirical formulas for the concentration time and storage coefficient of a basin and those of the pipe flow. The proposed model was applied to the total of three rainfall events observed at the Jungdong, Guro 1 and Daerim 2 pumping stations to evaluate its applicability. Summarizing the results is as follows. (1) The unit response function of the proposed model, different from other rainfall-runoff models, has the same shape regardless of the rainfall duration. (2) The proposed model shows a convergent shape as the calculation time interval becomes smaller. As the proposed model was proposed to be applied to urban basins, one-minute of calculation time interval would be most appropriate. (3) Application of the one-minute unit response function to the observed rainfall events showed that the simulated runoff hydrographs were very similar to those observed. This result indicates that the proposed model has a good application potential for the rainfall-runoff analysis in urban basins.

Establishment and Application of Flood Forecasting System for Waterfront Belt in Nakdong River Basin for the Prediction of Lowland Inundation of River. (하천구역내 저지대 침수예측을 위한 낙동강 친수지구 홍수예측체계 구축 및 적용)

  • Kim, Taehyung;Kwak, Jaewon;Lee, Jonghyun;Kim, Keuksoo;Choi, Kyuhyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.294-294
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    • 2019
  • The system for predicting flood of river at Flood Control Office is made up of a rainfall-runoff model and FLDWAV model. This system is mainly operating to predict the excess of the flood watch or warning level at flood forecast points. As the demand for information of the management and operation of riverside, which is being used as a waterfront area such as parks, camping sites, and bike paths, high-level forecasts of watch and warning at certain points are required as well as production of lowland flood forecast information that is used as a waterfront within the river. In this study, a technology to produce flood forecast information in lowland areas of the river used as a waterfront was developed. Based on the results of the 1D hydraulic analysis, a model for performing spatial operations based on high resolution grid was constructed. A model was constructed for Andong district, and the inundation conditions and level were analyzed through a virtual outflow scenarios of Andong and Imha Dam.

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Synthetic storm sewer network for complex drainage system as used for urban flood simulation

  • Dasallas, Lea;An, Hyunuk;Lee, Seungsoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.142-142
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    • 2021
  • An arbitrary representation of an urban drainage sewer system was devised using a geographic information system (GIS) tool in order to calculate the surface and subsurface flow interaction for simulating urban flood. The proposed methodology is a mean to supplement the unavailability of systematized drainage system using high-resolution digital elevation(DEM) data in under-developed countries. A modified DEM was also developed to represent the flood propagation through buildings and road system from digital surface models (DSM) and barely visible streams in digital terrain models (DTM). The manhole, sewer pipe and storm drain parameters are obtained through field validation and followed the guidelines from the Plumbing law of the Philippines. The flow discharge from surface to the devised sewer pipes through the storm drains are calculated. The resulting flood simulation using the modified DEM was validated using the observed flood inundation during a rainfall event. The proposed methodology for constructing a hypothetical drainage system allows parameter adjustments such as size, elevation, location, slope, etc. which permits the flood depth prediction for variable factors the Plumbing law. The research can therefore be employed to simulate urban flood forecasts that can be utilized from traffic advisories to early warning procedures during extreme rainfall events.

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A study on the estimation of the downstream arrival time with the upstream flow by utilizing u-IT equipments (u-IT 장비를 활용한 상류 유하량에 따른 하류지점 도달시간 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Chang-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.3594-3602
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is complementing existing flood-reaching timetable by theoretically determined numerical model and suggesting techniques for calculating the exact arrival time of flood. For this, according to the discharge of Namhan River, arrival time measurements, using u-IT technology applied sensor buoys, were performed. Based on the results of measurements, this study proposed complementary relation of average reach time by the discharged water considering tributary inflow, which was not considered established expression. With this study, u-IT based actual technology that is complementing the existing flood forcasting-warning data was developed. Applying this technology to the average reach time calculation by the discharged water, it is expected to reduce flood-oriented damage.

Two-Dimensional Model for the Prediction of Inundation Area in Urbanized Rivers (도시하천에서의 홍수범람도 작성을 위한 2차원 모형의 개발)

  • 한건연;박재홍
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 1995
  • Two-dimensional diffusion and kinematic hydrodynamic models have been studied for preparing the flood inundation map. The models have been tested by applying to one-dimensional dam-break problem. The results have good agreements compared with those of dynamic wave model. The diffusion wave model produces the mass conservation error close to zero. Floodwave analyses for two-dimensional floodplain with obstruction and channel-floodplain show both stable and efficient results. The model presented in this study can be used for flood inundation map and flood warning system.

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