• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.24 no.7
• /
• pp.38-53
• /
• 2020

Purpose - A financial crash triggers asset fire sales by foreign investors and, as a consequence, the price of domestic assets severely decreases. Domestic investors take advantage of these low prices by replacing foreign assets with domestic assets, which helps to alleviate the liquidity shock caused by foreigners. However, is the amount of capital retrenchment by domestic investors sufficient to protect the Korean economy from capital stop by foreign investors during financial crisis? This paper answers this question and suggests the implications of this phenomenon for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We estimate the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and various financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises using the complementary log-log model. Specifically, we use data of gross capital flows to differentiate between the role of foreign and domestic investors in financial markets. Capital stop and retrenchment designate a sharp decrease in gross capital inflows and outflows, respectively. Findings - Capital stop is significantly associated with financial crises, especially currency and debt crises. This implies that increased risk aversion during times of financial turmoil encourages foreign investors to retrench their investments, worsening liquidity shocks. Conversely, capital retrenchment is not significantly associated with such crises. The results show that, although financial crises reduce gross capital outflows, the reduction is not as large as that with capital inflows. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, this study investigates how domestic investors behave during times of financial distress by studying gross capital flows-not net capital flows. Second, we concentrate on sharp changes in capital flows during crises. Third, we examine the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and financial crises in general, not specific events.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.44 no.4
• /
• pp.43-78
• /
• 2022

The arena of strategic competition between the US and China is expandable from international politics, trade and commerce to finance. What would happen if financial sanctions against China are imposed by the US? Would US financial sanctions lead to a sudden outflow of foreign capital and a liquidity crisis in China? We try to address these questions by estimating China's capital flows-at-risk with the CDS premium on Chinese sovereign funds. We follow Gelos et al. (2019) in setting up a quantile regression model from which China's foreign capital flow-at-risks are estimated. Based on our analysis of China's monthly capital flow data, we find that a rise in the CDS premium has statistically significant negative impacts on China's foreign capital flows-at-risk, mainly in banking flows. However, the analysis also found that due to favorable global conditions, an increase in the CDS premium is unlikely to trigger a shift to a sudden outflow of foreign capital at the moment. Meanwhile, this study found no statistically significant correlation between Korea's capital flows-at-risk and the CDS premium, suggesting that the negative impact of US financial sanctions on China would not increase the probability of capital flight from Korea in a significant manner.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.42 no.4
• /
• pp.59-90
• /
• 2020

U.S. monetary policy has been claimed to generate global spillover and to destabilize other small open economies. We analyze the effects of certain identified U.S. monetary shocks on gross capital flows in the Korean economy using the local projection method. Consistent with previous results on other small open economies, we initially confirm that U.S. interest rate hikes are dynamically correlated with foreign outflows and residents' inflows. That is, not only are they correlated with withdrawals by foreigners but they are also correlated with those by domestic (Korean) investors. The results are mostly driven by portfolio flows. Second, however, the marginal response to a U.S. monetary policy shock is, on average, subdued if we focus on the sample periods after the Global financial crisis of 2007-2008 (henceforth, global financial crisis). We conjecture a possible reason behind the change, an institutional change related to financial friction. If the degree of pledgeability of the value of net worth increases, the marginal responses by both investors would drop with a U.S. monetary policy shock, consistent with our findings.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.23 no.7
• /
• pp.113-127
• /
• 2019

Purpose - This paper investigates whether financial crises could be the indicators of capital outflow waves or vice versa in Korea. Korea has experienced two severe financial crises, which are the Asian Crisis and the global financial crisis. Although there were many variables associated with these two remarkable events, one notable variable was gross capital outflows, which had significantly increased around them. Motivated by existing literature which built theoretical frameworks explaining the relationship between capital flight and financial crises, we examine the empirical evidence for this relationship. Design/methodology - We use panel data from 61 countries including Korea from 1980 to 2009 to study the associations between capital flight and diverse financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises. To be specific, we use the complementary log-log model to see whether capital outflow waves are reliable indicators for domestic financial crises. Findings - The results show, first, that banking, currency, and inflation crises are associated with capital flight. Second, debt crises are also associated with capital flight, but the result is not robust to different specifications. And, third, the positive associations between capital flight and crises are mainly driven by banking flows rather than FDI and portfolio flows. Originality/value - This paper is one of a few studies that investigates domestic (not foreign) investors' behavior during financial turmoil. Furthermore, theoretical studies which provide contradictory explanations on the movements of gross capital outflows during financial crises emphasizes the importance of empirical evidence in this paper.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.11
• /
• pp.223-234
• /
• 2021

This study aims to examine whether operating cash flows influence banks' financial stability in Pakistan. The study employed annual panel data collected from annual reports of 20 commercial banks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange for the year 2011 to 2019. Free cash flow yield was taken as the dependent variable while cash flow ratio was selected as the independent variable, and net interest margin, income diversification, asset quality, financial leverage, the cost to income ratio, advance net of provisions to total assets ratio, capital ratio, financial performance, breakup value per share and bank size were taken as control variables. The study performed ordinary least square technique, random and fixed effects models, Hausman test, Lagrange multiplier test, descriptive and correlation analysis. Results showed that operating cash flows and net interest margin significantly and positively influenced banks' financial stability while the cost to income ratio and advances net of provisions to total assets ratio significantly and negatively associated with banks' financial stability. To improve financial stability, banks should become more cost-effective and enhance their liquidity levels by lowering lending activities. In the future, it would be useful to compare commercial and investment banks, also Islamic and conventional banks in the same research setting.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.183-193
• /
• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of global uncertainty on gross and net capital flows in Korea. Design/methodology/approach - We conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of global uncertainty on the net and gross capital flows in korea. To investigate the impacts, we incorporate linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Findings - We find global uncertainty has negative impacts on the gross and net capital flows. But this impact is nonlinear. The negative global uncertainty shocks are bigger than the positive global uncertainty shocks on capital flows in Korea. And we find this relationship is noticeable in gross capital inflows. We also find interest rate difference between the US and Korea is the main driving source in capital flow after the Global financial crisis. Research implications or Originality - The results of this study suggest that the negative impacts of global uncertainty are noticeable. This means that economic players in financial markets should be more concerned about the bad news.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.75-87
• /
• 2020

This paper aims to not only investigate the nature of financial security and its measurement, but also to compare financial security level in 629 listed companies divided into four different industries (materials, industrials, health care, and consumer goods) before building a theoretical framework and regression models to examine the determinants of financial security. By gathering 2,167 financial statements published in Vietnamese Stock Exchange during eight years from 2012 to 2019, with the support of STATA, the research results indicate that six different internal factors, which are liquidity, profitability, firm size, debt management ratios, asset management ratios, and cash flows, explain 77.7% the change of financial security ratio and 3.4% the change in sustainable growth ratio. Specifically, while firm size has a positive impact on sustainable growth ratio but a negative impact on financial security ratio, deb management and profitability have an insignificant influence on the financial security level. Furthermore, an increase in asset management ratios would result positively in both two dependent variables whereas a rise in sustainable growth and a decline in financial security ratio are expected to witness if there is an increase in cash flows.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.263-276
• /
• 2021

This study examines the effect of international capital flows on corporate capital structures in Vietnam by analyzing panel data from all non-financial listed firms from 2005 to 2014 using pooled ordinary least square (OLS) with a variance estimator. The analysis includes a comparison of the signs and significance of the variable coefficients from the perking order and static trade-off theories to the empirical results to determine the optimum approach to the corporate capital structure given Vietnam's high-inflation environment. The results indicate that international capital flows have a positive relation to the debt ratio in the long term, and the relationship is more robust for 2005-2009 than for 2010-2014. Corporate capital structures adjusted to changes in the business environment in different sub-periods (2005-2009 and 2010-2014). When the economic environment became more favorable, the pecking order theory's predictive power increased, and that of trade-off theory lessened. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms required different capital structure decisions to fuel their operations and grow under foreign competition. The analysis demonstrates that firms should intensify their use of long-term debt relative to the availability of capital, which is an implication not only for firms in particular but also for industrial innovation overall.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.195-205
• /
• 2020

This study investigates the effects of financial development on the foreign direct investment (FDI) flow in host countries. Using bilateral FDI data from 34 OECD source countries to 146 host countries, we performed panel data analysis based on a gravity FDI equation. We hypothesized that the financial development would increase the volume of FDI flows. The results suggest that the well-functioning finance market of source countries as well as a better accessable financial market of host countries contribute to the increase in FDI of OECD in their partner countries. We found also that the financial development effects of source countries are larger than those of host countries. This result shows that the financial development can play a crucial role to impact the FDI inflows as push factor in source country than as a pull factor in host countries.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2013.01a
• /
• pp.467-474
• /
• 2013

Construction contactors must continuously seek to improve their cash flows, which reside at the heart of their financial success. They require careful planning, analysis, and optimization to avoid the risk of bankruptcy, remain profitable, and secure long-term growth. Sources of cash include bank loans and retained earnings, which are conceptually similar in that they both incur a cost of capital. Financial management therefore requires accurate yet customizable modeling capabilities that can quantify all expenses, including said cost of capital. However, currently existing cash flow models in construction engineering and management have strongly simplified the manner in which interest is assessed, which may even lead to overstating it at a disadvantage to contractors. The variable nature of cash balances, especially in the early phases of construction projects, contribute to this challenging issue. This research therefore extends a new cash flow model with an accurate interest calculation. It utilizes singularity functions, so called because of their ability to flexibly model changes across any number of different ranges. The interest function is continuous for activity costs of any duration and allows the realistic case that activities may begin between integer time periods, which are often calendar months. Such fractional interest calculation has hitherto been lacking from the literature. It also provides insights into the self-referential behavior of compound interest for variable cash balances. The contribution of this study is twofold; augmenting the corpus of financial analysis theory with a new interest formula, whose strengths include its generic nature and that it can be evaluated at any fractional value of time, and providing construction managers with a tool to help improve and fine-tune the financial performance of their projects.