• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.653-665
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• 2009

All the policies and plans need to be carried out at the proper times in order that they would work properly for what they are made for. It is will known that statistics are one of the most useful tools in deciding the proper times for the policies. In this paper we show how to use statistics in evaluating the policies already carried with respect to the time when they were executed in dealing with the population policy we had in 1983 when the total fertility rate hit the population replacement level 2.1. Two methods have been tried to show that the policy carried in 1983 missed the proper changing time. The one is to make forecasting only with the data possible before 1982 and show how close they can be to the real situation of today. The other is to show what would happen if the policies aiming to suppress population growth had been changed or abandoned. Both results from two methods give some quantified information about the population policy of 1983. Especially the prediction tells that we could have forecasted the problem of low fertility of this century in 1983.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.15-23
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• 2020

This study aimed to analyze effects of non-regular employment rate and female employment rate on fertility rate in OECD county. We adopted dynamic panel model after classifying OECD county to high and low fertility rate. The results of analysis showed that the higher non regular employment rate, the lower female employment rate, and the lower economy growth rate decrease fertility rate especially in low fertility rate country. While, only the higher house rental decrease in high fertility country. This results indicate that low fertility country including Korea should improve a labor policy such as strengthening employment security and encouraging female employment to increase fertility rate.

• The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.23-37
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• 2006

As the fertility rate of Korea has recently decreased to the lowest level in the world, the recognition of the needs for social support for the child-care has been increased. This resulted in the announcement of National Policy of Child-Rearing Support in 2004. This study attempted to propose the activation of the family child-care for the preparation of the introduction of the National Policy of Child-Rearing Support. Using literature review and interview, the following research questions were addressed. Firstly, the actual situation of the family child-care was compared with that of the other types of child-care. Secondly, the policies of child-rearing support and the family child-care systems in other countries such as United Kingdom, Sweden and Japan were introduced. Finally, activations of the family child-care were discussed in terms of the introduction of the National Policy of Child-Rearing Support. The results of this study implies that the family child-care in Korea is different from that of other countries as well as other types of child-care in Korea. Also, it suggests that key factors of the activation of the family child-care in Korea are to identify as the small, informal and family-like child-care, to differentiate as the infant-care and non-standard time child-care from other types of child-care, and to increase the level of professionalization. In conclusion, family child-care should become an alternative for the low fertility problem.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.229-263
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• 2019

The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.67-90
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to analyze factors to affect low fertility and to investigate its implications to social welfare. For the purpose, I surveyed 360 married women and men in Gyeongnam province, and employed multi-regression, logistic regression model to process the data. I analyzed factors to influence low fertility in three aspects: demographic feature, socio-economic status, and personal sense of value. The results of analysis can be summarized as follows: (1) the period of marriage in demographic feature, income level in social economic status, and the necessity of children in personal sense of value are important factors to affect the current fertility level, (2) period of marriage, total numbers of children, gender of the first child are determining the future childbirth in demographic feature. Secondly, income level is interrelated to the future childbirth in socio-economic status. Thirdly, in the aspect of personal values, how much one needs to get married, how much one prefers son to daughter, how much one relies on one's children to realize one's dream are interrelated to the future childbirth, (3) the cost of bringing up a child as well as he expense of private education, lacking of a day nursery, and economic difficulty are causes to make people to postpone or give up childbirth. These results suggest that development of population policy to promote women's social participation and to strengthen family welfare as well as social welfare is necessary. These also implicates that if we pursue integrated policies on women, childcare, and education, we can get much more effective population welfare policy.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.118-138
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• 1985

This paper is aimed to analyse the recent changes in family planning as a step in an evaluation of the results of the population control policy which has been strenuously pursued by the government since December 1981. The data used in this analysis comes from the 1985 national fertility and family planning survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) in May 1985. According to the 1985 survey data, there have been great changes in both the contraceptive practice and fertility rates since the strengthening of the government's population control policy in 1 981. The contraceptive practice rate for married women aged 15-44 has increased from 57.7% in 1982 to 70.3% in 1985, an increase of 12.6% points in the short span of only 3 years. During the same period, the total fertility rate has declined from 2.7 in 1982 to the population replacement level which was planned to achieve by 1 988. More than 80% of women aged over 30 or with two children or more are practicing contraception, while the practice rates of women with 0-1 children are 14.0% and 45.1% respectively. The survey has revealed that the increase of contraceptive practice rate during 1982-1985 has mainly attributed to the high acceptance of sterilization procedures which practice rate of the married women has increased from 28.1% to 40.3% for the period. Also, the survey data shows that 24.7% of those women with only one child is practicing contraception for thepurpose of fertility termination. The government, taking into account of rapid changes in contraceptive practice and fertility rates, is formulating a population plan during the sixth fiveyear economic and social development plan (1987-1991) to achieve 1% ofpopulation growth rate by 1993, which was planned to realize by 2000. In order to meet this demographic goal, the existing population control policy measures should be improved to be suited to the recent contraceptive use and fertility changes. From this standpoint, the following considerations should be put forth; 1) improvement of the current program management systems including target allocation and evaluation schems for recruiting new acceptors in the young 20s groups to use contraceptives for birth spacing and to increase high continuation rates through the strengthening of follow-up services for the acceptors, 2) increase of self-supporting contraceptive users by promoting commercial advertisements on contraceptives through mass media including T.V. and radio, 3) development of social support policies including incentive schems, and strengthening of IE & C activities for increasing the proportion of the one-child family, 4) strengthening of population and family planning education in and out school youth, and 5) strengthening of management capabilities at the provincial and local program managers.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.27-54
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.31-52
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of policies in response to low fertility in Korea. Using a recent nationwide survey on marriage and fertility, this study analyzes the effect of low fertility policies on plan of further birth among young married women according to the number of their children. Awareness of polices in response to low fertility is relatively high, showing the great differences among policy measures. In contrast, the degree of polices in response to low fertility is very low. ranging from 2.0% to 27.6%. The distribution of awareness and experience is different according to the number of children. The results of logistic regression analysis show that awareness of polices in response to low fertility such as economic support, promotion of equality of the sexes significantly affects on plan of further birth. However, this effects disappear when we apply parity specific approach. For example, the plan for first child is quite universal as no difference is found by their awareness of policies in response to low fertility. Similar results are found in married women having plan for second child and third child. With respect to the degree of experience of policies in response to low fertility, the results show that economic support, work-family coexistence, and promotion of equality of the sexes significantly affects the plan of further birth. Like awareness of policies in response to low fertility, these effects disappear as we apply parity specific approach. The results indicate that the effect of policies in response to low fertility differs by the current number of children. Thus, consideration of such difference would help us deepen our understanding of fertility behaviors and polices in response to low fertility.

• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.59-87
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• 2006

This paper explores the effects of the 1997 economic crisis on the pattern of socioeconomic differentials in fertility. Based on analysis of data from the 2003 Korea National Fertility Survey, this study focuses on recent changes in the level of fertility according to socioeconomic status of the couple including educational level, occupation, working status, income, etc. Results reveal that the level of fertility of those with the highest education, most prestigious occupation, and employer status are higher than those of the next group in the socioeconomic hierarchy. These findings imply that the straight line inverse pattern of socioeconomic differentials in CEB yielded to a reversed J-shaped curve. However, recent differentials of fertility after the economic crisis were found to contrast with the pattern above. Decrease in fertility has been most drastic among those with a high level of fertility, and relatively slow for those with a low level of fertility. The level of recent fertility turns out to be highest among those with upper-middle socioeconomic status, followed by those with the highest socioeconomic status and those with the lowest status. Policy implications and some comments on current population policies of the Korean government are also presented in this paper.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.337-361
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• 2005

This study seeks the implications for the Korean family welfare policies after examining the characteristics of fertility rates and family welfare policies of advanced OECD countries, and comparatively analyzing the fertility rates among clusters of countries having similar family welfare policies. The fertility rates of most advanced OECD countries declined below the population replacement level in the 1970s, and continuously declined slowly after that period. But in the 1990s the fertility rate of some countries increased, on the other hand that of other countries declined. Such a difference of fertility rates suggests that there is some correlation between the fertility rate and the family welfare policy of each country. Advanced countries became concerned about the decline of fertility rate, established the government Population Issues Committee in order to deal with population problems, and increased family welfare supports. But the level and pattern(focusing on maternal employment supports or child-rearing supports) of each country's family welfare policies are differently developed according to its political ideology, cultural and historical background, and economic environments. A comparative assessment of the fertility rate among clusters of countries having similar family welfare policies demonstrates that the higher the level of family welfare supports is and the level of maternal employment supports in comparison with that of maternal child-rearing supports is, the higher of fertility rate is. And a comparative assessment of the fertility rate changes among clusters of countries also shows that the higher the level of family welfare supports is and the level of maternal employment supports in comparison with that of maternal child-rearing supports is, the higher the increase of fertility rate is or the lower the decrease of fertility rate is. The implications for the Korean family welfare policies are summarized as follows. First, it is necessary to establish the government Population Issues Committee which can study systematically fertility rates and population problems, and provide comprehensive population measures. Second, family welfare supports should be expanded through the establishment of family allowances, the prolongation of maternity leave and child-care leave and the upward readjustment of child-care leave benefits, and the extension of public child-care facilities. Third, maternal employment supports such as public child-care facilities and maternity leave should be given more weight than maternal child-rearing supports such as family allowance. Fourth, it is required to prepare social environments which can provide the youth with the hope that child-rearing is not difficult and gives them happiness.