• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제4권6호
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• pp.12-19
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary conditions in various failure pressure models published for the estimation of failure pressure. Furthermore, this approach is extended to the failure prediction with the aid of a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect in buried pipelines for long exposure period with unit of years. A failure probability model based on the von-Mises failure criterion is adapted. The log-normal and standard normal probability functions for varying random variables are adapted. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically investigated for the corrosion pipeline by using an adapted failure probability model and varying failure pressure model.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.7-13
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• 2011

A study on reliability estimation of sequential-ordered multiple failure modes, which are sequentially ordered between failure modes in a considering system, was performed. Especially, an approach to estimate the probabilities of failure modes has been proposed under an assumption that failure modes are mutually exclusive and sequentially ordered by only a critical variable. A feasibility of the proposed approach were studied by a practical example, which is a reliability estimation of passive safety systems for a probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) of a very high temperature reactor(VHTR) that is under development as a future nuclear system with enhanced safety features. It is difficult to define a robust failure state of this nuclear system because of its enhanced radiation release characteristics, so the new approach is a useful concept to estimate not only its safety but also a PSA. A feasibility study applied two failure modes(e.g., small and large release of radioactive materials) with considering the integrated behavior of this nuclear system. It is expected that the multiple release states for a practical estimation can be easily extended to the aforementioned example. It was found out that the proposed approach was a useful technique to cover the unfavorable features of this nuclear system as to performing a VHTR PSA.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제17권11호
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• pp.1281-1293
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• 2008

This study aims at the estimation of dam failure time and dam failure scenario analysis of and applied to Yeoncheon Dam which was collapsed August 1st 1999, using HEC-HMS, DAMBRK-FLDWAV simulation model. As the result of the rainfall-runoff simulation, the lancet flood amount of the Yeoncheon Dam site was $10,324\;m^3/sec$ and the total outflow was $1,263.90\;million\;m^3$. For the dam failure time estimation, 13 scenarios were assumed including dam failure duration time and starting time, which reviewed to the runoff results. The simulation time was established with 30 minutes intervals between one o'clock to 4 o'clock in the morning on August 1, 1999 for the setup standard for each case of the dam failure time estimation, considering the arrival time of the flood, when the actually measured water level was sharply raising at Jeongok station area of the Yeoncheon Dam downstream, As results, dam failure arrival time could be estimated at 02:45 a.m., August 1st 1999 and duration time could be also 30 minutes. Those results and procedure could suggest how and when dam failure occurs and analyzes.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.310-315
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.209-217
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• 2010

Reliability tools such as QFD and FMEA identify voice of customer related to product design, its use, how failures may occur, the severity of such failures, and the probability of the failure occurring. With these identified items, a development team can focus on the design process and the major issues facing the product in its potential use environment for the customer. The purpose of this research is to develop a reliability estimation process of agricultural machinery components using QFD, FMEA, and field failure data. Based on QFD method, customer requirements, engineering design elements and part characteristics were deployed. Using the field failure data, failures are investigated, and Weibull B10 life are estimated. This estimation process is useful for preparing the design input and planning the durability target.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.405-414
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• 2012

In this paper, we propose a reliability estimation method for DI&C systems. At the system level, a fault tree model is suggested and Boolean algebra is used to obtain the minimal cut sets. At the component level, an exponential distribution is used to model hardware failures, and Bayesian estimation is suggested to estimate the failure rate. Additionally, a binomial distribution is used to model software failures, and a recently developed software reliability estimation method is suggested to estimate the software failure rate. The overall system reliability is then estimated based on minimal cut sets, hardware failure rates and software failure rates.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.27-34
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 기존의 모르타르 충전식 슬리브 철근이음에 대한 부착강도식으로부터 유도한 이 철근이음의 파괴모드 추정방법을 이용하여, AIJ 규준에 의하여 평가한 이 슬리브 철근이음의 강성을 검토하였다. 이것을 위하여 261개 모르타르 충전식 슬리브 철근이음의 기존 실험자료를 채택하여 실험의 결과를 분석한 결과에 의하면 모르타르 충전식 철근이음의 파괴모드 추정방법은 돌기가 없는 강관 슬리브에 SD500 철근을 사용한 철근이음을 제외한 모르타르 충전식 슬리브 철근이음에 대한 강성을 효과적으로 평가할 수 있었다. 그리고 이 슬리브 철근이음의 파괴모드 추정방법에 적용하여 철근의 인장파단 영역에 있는 실험체 중에 주물 슬리브와 돌기가 있는 강관 슬리브를 사용한 실험체에서 SD400 철근을 사용한 경우는 98%, SD500 철근을 사용한 경우는 모든 실험체가 단조가력 시의 강성이 AIJ 규준의 A급 이상인 것으로 나타났고, 철근의 인장파단 영역에 있는 모든 실험체는 슬리브의 종류와 슬리브에 매입한 철근 종류에 관계없이 반복가력 시의 강성이 AIJ 규준의 A급 이상인 것으로 나타났다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.71-78
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• 1997

In this paper, we consider a hierarchical Bayes estimation of the parameter, the reliability and failure rate functions based on type-II censored samples from a Burr type-？ failure time model. The Gibbs sampler a, pp.oach brings considerable conceptual and computational simplicity to the calculation of the posterior marginals and reliability. A numerical study is provided.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.25-32
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• 2017

For repairable software systems, the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) is used as a measure of software system stability. Therefore, the evaluation of software reliability requirements or reliability characteristics can be applied MTBF. In this paper, we want to compare MTBF in terms of parameter estimation using Makeham life distribution. The parameter estimates used the least square method which is regression analyzer method and the maximum likelihood method. As a result, the MTBF using the least square method shows a non-decreased pattern and case of the maximum likelihood method shows a non-increased form as the failure time increases. In comparison with the observed MTBF, MTBF using the maximum likelihood estimation is smallerd about difference of interval than the least square estimation which is regression analyzer method. Thus, In terms of MTBF, the maximum likelihood estimation has efficient than the regression analyzer method. In terms of coefficient of determination, the mean square error and mean error of prediction, the maximum likelihood method can be judged as an efficient method.

• 한국복합재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국복합재료학회 2001년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.163-167
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• 2001

A two-dimensional progressive failure analysis method is presented for the strength characterization of the composite joints under pin loading. The eight-nodes laminated she]1 element is utilized based on the updated Lagrangian formulation. The criteria by Yamada-Sun, Tsai-Wu, and the maximum stress are used for the failure estimation. The stiffness of failed layer is degraded by the complete unloading method. No factor depending on test is included in the finite element analysis except for the material strength and stiffness. Total 20 plate specimens with and without hole are tested to validate the finite element prediction. The Tsai-Wu failure criterion most conservatively estimates the strength of laminate, and the maximum stress criterion yields the highest strength because it does not consider the coupling of the failure modes. The strength by Yamada-Sun method neglecting the matrix failure effect are located between other two methods and shows best agreement with test result for laminate with hole.