• Title/Summary/Keyword: exponential failure model

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A Study on the Rectifying Inspection Plan & Life Test Sampling Plan Considering Cost (소비자 보호를 위한 선별형 샘플링 검사와 신뢰성 샘플링 검사의 최적설계에 관한 연구)

  • 강보철;조재립
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.74-96
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    • 2002
  • The objectives of this study is to suggest the rectifying sampling inspection plan considering quality cost. Limiting quality level(LQL) plans(also called LTPD plans) and outgoing quality(OQ) plans are considered. The Hald's linear cost model is discussed with and without a beta prior for the distribution of the fraction of nonconforming items in a lot. It is assumed that the sampling inspection is error free. We consider the design of reliability acceptance sampling plan (RASP) for failure rate level qualification at selected confidence level. The lifetime distribution of products is assumed to be exponential. MIL-STD-690C and K C 6032 standards provide this procedures. But these procedures have some questions to apply in the field. The cost of test and confidence level(1-$\beta$ risk) are the problem between supplier and user. So, we suggest that the optimal life test sampling inspection plans using simple linear cost model considering product cost, capability of environment chamber, environmental test cost, and etc. Especially, we consider a reliability of lots that contain some nonconforming items. In this case we assumed that a nonconforming item fail after environmental life test. Finally, we develope the algorithm of the optimal sampling inspection plan based on minimum costs for rectifying inspection and RASP. And computer application programs are developed So, it is shown how the desired sampling plan can be easily found.

Reasonability of Logistic Curve on S/W (로지스틱 곡선을 이용한 타당성)

  • Kim, Sun-Il;Che, Gyu-Shik;Jo, In-June
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2008
  • The Logistic cone is studied as a most desirable for the software testing effort. Assuming that the error detection rate to the amount of testing effort spent during the testing phase is proportional to the current error content, a software-reliability growth model is formulated by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Using this model the method of data analysis for software reliability measurement is developed. After defining a software reliability, This paper discusses the relations between testing time and reliability and between duration following failure fixing and reliability are studied SRGM in several literatures has used the exponential curve, Railleigh curve or Weibull cure as an amount of testing effort during software testing phase. However, it might not be appropriate to represent the consumption curve for testing effort by one of already proposed curves in some software development environments. Therefore, this paper shows that a logistic testing- effort function can be adequately expressed as a software development/testing effort curve and that it gives a good predictive capability based on real failure data.

Applying Conventional and Saturated Generalized Gamma Distributions in Parametric Survival Analysis of Breast Cancer

  • Yavari, Parvin;Abadi, Alireza;Amanpour, Farzaneh;Bajdik, Chris
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.1829-1831
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    • 2012
  • Background: The generalized gamma distribution statistics constitute an extensive family that contains nearly all of the most commonly used distributions including the exponential, Weibull and log normal. A saturated version of the model allows covariates having effects through all the parameters of survival time distribution. Accelerated failure-time models assume that only one parameter of the distribution depends on the covariates. Methods: We fitted both the conventional GG model and the saturated form for each of its members including the Weibull and lognormal distribution; and compared them using likelihood ratios. To compare the selected parameter distribution with log logistic distribution which is a famous distribution in survival analysis that is not included in generalized gamma family, we used the Akaike information criterion (AIC; r=l(b)-2p). All models were fitted using data for 369 women age 50 years or more, diagnosed with stage IV breast cancer in BC during 1990-1999 and followed to 2010. Results: In both conventional and saturated parametric models, the lognormal was the best candidate among the GG family members; also, the lognormal fitted better than log-logistic distribution. By the conventional GG model, the variables "surgery", "radiotherapy", "hormone therapy", "erposneg" and interaction between "hormone therapy" and "erposneg" are significant. In the AFT model, we estimated the relative time for these variables. By the saturated GG model, similar significant variables are selected. Estimating the relative times in different percentiles of extended model illustrate the pattern in which the relative survival time change during the time. Conclusions: The advantage of using the generalized gamma distribution is that it facilitates estimating a model with improved fit over the standard Weibull or lognormal distributions. Alternatively, the generalized F family of distributions might be considered, of which the generalized gamma distribution is a member and also includes the commonly used log-logistic distribution.

Modeling of the Failure Rates and Estimation of the Economical Replacement Time of Water Mains Based on an Individual Pipe Identification Method (개별관로 정의 방법을 이용한 상수관로 파손율 모형화 및 경제적 교체시기의 산정)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Kyu-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a heuristic method for identifying individual pipes in water pipe networks to determine specific sections of the pipes that need to be replaced due to deterioration. An appropriate minimum pipe length is determined by selecting the pipe length that has the greatest variance of the average cumulative break number slopes among the various pipe lengths used. As a result, the minimum pipe length for the case study water network is determined as 4 m and a total of 39 individual pipe IDs are obtained. The economically optimal replacement times of the individual pipe IDs are estimated by using the threshold break rate of an individual pipe ID and the pipe break trends models for which the General Pipe Break Prediction Model(Park and Loganathan, 2002) that can incorporate the linear, exponential, and in-between of the linear and exponetial failure trends and the ROCOFs based on the modified time scale(Park et al., 2007) are used. The maximum log-likelihoods of the log-linear ROCOF and Weibull ROCOF estimated for the break data of a pipe are compared and the ROCOF that has a greater likelihood is selected for the pipe of interest. The effects of the social costs of a pipe break on the optimal replacement time are also discussed.

Simplified Method for Estimation of Mean Residual Life of Rubble-mound Breakwaters (경사제의 평균 잔류수명 추정을 위한 간편법)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2022
  • A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.