• Title/Summary/Keyword: event tree analysis

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Analyzing Chemical Reaction Routes of Explosion by a Mixed Acid - Focusing on Chemical Carriers - (혼산에 의한 폭발사고의 화학반응 경로 분석 - 화학물질 운반 선박을 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Yu Mi;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the chemical reaction pathway for explosion accident of mixed cargo. The analysis used a structural scenario using event-tree analysis. Structural scenarios were constructed by estimating various chemical reaction paths in the content of the mixed cargo accident recorded in the written verdict. The analytical method was applied to three kinds of analysis: chemical analysis based on chemical theory, quantitative analysis using chemical reaction formula, and probabilistic analysis through questionnaire. As a result of analysis, the main pathway of the accident occurred in three ways: the path of explosion due to the reaction of concentrated sulfuric acid with water, the path of explosion due to the reaction of metal and mixed acid, and the path of explosion by synthesizing with special substances. This result is similar to the path recorded in the validation, and it leads to thar the proposed path analysis method is valid. The proposed method is expected to be applicable to chemical reaction path estimation of various chemical accidents.

A Large Dry PWR Containment Response Analysis for Postulated Severe Accidents (가상적 중대사고에 대한 대형건식 가압경수로 격납용기의 반응해석)

  • Chun, Moon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.292-309
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    • 1987
  • A large dry PWR containment response analysis for postulated severe accidents was performed as part of the Zion Risk Rebaselining study for input to the U.S. NRC's "Reactor Risk Reference Document," NUREG-1150. The Methodologies used in the present work were developed as part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) at Sandia National Laboratory specifically for the Surry Plant, but they were extrapolated to Zion. Major steps of the quantification of risk from a nuclear power plant are first outlined. Then, the methodologies of containment response analysis for severe accidents used for Zion are described in detail: major features of the containment event tree (CET) analysis codes and CET quantification procedures are summarized. In addition, plant specific features important to containment response analysis are presented along with the containment loading and performance issues included in the present uncertainty analysis. Finally, a brief summary of the results of deterministic and statistical containment event tree analysis is presented to provide a perspective on the large dry PWR containment response for postulated severe accidents.accidents.

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The Risk Analysis for the Rail Transport of Explosives (폭약류의 철도수송에 따른 리스크 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Hean;Song, Dong-Woo;Lee, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2011
  • This study presented quantitative risk analysis in case of transporting explosive materials by railway. Accident types were classified into accidents of in station and in transit. And the study presented an initial value of accident frequency through derailment accident and crushing one according to each type, and drew the results of accident frequency through event tree analysis. Damage impact evaluation used TNT equivalent method and probit analysis method. As the result of risk evaluation, railway transportation of explosive materials passing through areas which are high in population density is appeared to be able to cause a large number of personnel injury when occurring accidents. Specially, the accident of explosive transportation combined with petroleum was forecasted as easily resulting in large explosive accident. Consequently, there is a necessity to reduce consequences by decreasing passage through areas where are high in population density, and take measures for lessening the risks in case of transporting dangerous explosive materials.

Development of a Method for Uncertainty Analysis in the Top Event Unavailability (고장수목 정점사상 이용 불능도의 불확실성 분석용 방법 개발)

  • Sang Hoon Han;Chang Hyun Chung;Kun Joong Yoo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 1984
  • A method and computer code for the uncertainty analysis in the top event unavailability are developed and tested by combining Monte Carlo Method and Moments method with fault tree reduction technique. Using system fault trees and unavailability data selected in WASH-1400, the efficiency of the proposed method is tested and these results are compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo method. It is shown that the results are sufficiently good in accuracy and computation time is considerably reduced compared with those by Monte Carlo method.

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Analysis of Leaf Node Ranking Methods for Spatial Event Prediction (의사결정트리에서 공간사건 예측을 위한 리프노드 등급 결정 방법 분석)

  • Yeon, Young-Kwang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2014
  • Spatial events are predictable using data mining classification algorithms. Decision trees have been used as one of representative classification algorithms. And they were normally used in the classification tasks that have label class values. However since using rule ranking methods, spatial prediction have been applied in the spatial prediction problems. This paper compared rule ranking methods for the spatial prediction application using a decision tree. For the comparison experiment, C4.5 decision tree algorithm, and rule ranking methods such as Laplace, M-estimate and m-branch were implemented. As a spatial prediction case study, landslide which is one of representative spatial event occurs in the natural environment was applied. Among the rule ranking methods, in the results of accuracy evaluation, m-branch showed the better accuracy than other methods. However in case of m-brach and M-estimate required additional time-consuming procedure for searching optimal parameter values. Thus according to the application areas, the methods can be selectively used. The spatial prediction using a decision tree can be used not only for spatial predictions, but also for causal analysis in the specific event occurrence location.

The Study on the Lifetime Estimation using Fault Tree Analysis in Design Process of LNG Compressor (천연가스 압축기 설계 단계에서 FTA를 이용한 수명 예측 연구)

  • Han, Yongshik;Do, Kyu Hyung;Kim, Taehoon;Kim, Myungbae;Choi, Byungil
    • Journal of Hydrogen and New Energy
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 2015
  • Fault Tree Analysis to predict the lifetime in the design process of LNG compressor is considered. Fault Trees for P & ID of the compressor are created. Individual components that comprise the compressor are configured with the basic event. The failure rates in the PDS and OREDA are applied. As results, the system failure rate and the reliability over time are obtained. Further, the power transmission and the shaft seal system is confirmed to confidentially importantly contribute to the overall lifetime of the system. These techniques will help to improve the reliability of design of large scale machinery such as a plant.

A Study of Comparison of outflow characteristics of pollutants by rainfall event of forest area near Juam lake basin (주암호 유역의 강우사상에 따른 오염물질의 유출특성)

  • Kim, Nam-Joung;Shin, Dae-Yewn
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.87-104
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to estimate the load of pollutants caused from the forest area among non-point pollutants within the Juam lake. The surveyed forest area was classified into broad-leaved, conifer, mixed and herbage area by forest tree type. Water quality and flux were investigated under rainfall and non-rainfall, respectively. Then, pollutant loading was evaluated by using the values of unit pollutant loading factor of each point and area of forest zone. Water quality analysis results of runoff by forest tree types were as follows. - Annual BOD, $COD_{Mn}\;and\;COD_{Cr}$ concentration of runoff in conifer area was high, and particle and biological recalcitrant compounds were flowed highly. - SS, T-N and T-P concentration was high in runoff from broad-leaved area, and biological degradable compounds was flowed. - Water quality of water from valley was maintained good under non-rainfall and could be utilized as fresh drinking water. Through water quality standard investigation, a countermeasure establishment was necessary to secure a good quality of drinking water - BOD, $COD_{Mn},\;and\;COD_{Cr}$ concentration of Bo-sung river was higher 1.5 times than other 2 streams, and because of high T-N, and T-P concentration in Songgwang stream, the management for this was necessary.

Safety Assessment for PCS of Photovoltaic and Energy Storage System Applying FTA (FTA를 적용한 태양광 발전 및 ESS 연계형 PCS의 안전성 평가)

  • Kim, Doo-Hyun;Kim, Sung-Chul;Kim, Eui-Sik;Nam, Ki-Gong;Jeong, Cheon-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents a safety assessment based approach for the safe operation for PCS(Power Conditioning System) of photovoltaic and energy storage systems, applying FTA. The approach established top events as power outage and a failure likely to cause the largest damage among the potential risks of PCS. Then the Minimal Cut Set (MCS) and the importance of basic events were analyzed for implementing risk assessment. To cope with the objects, the components and their functions of PCS were categorized. To calculate the MCS frequency based on IEEE J Photovolt 2013, IEEE Std. 493-2007 and RAC (EPRD, NPRD), the failure rate and failure mode were produced regarding the basic events. In order to analyze the top event of failure and power outage, it was assumed that failures occurred in DC breaker, AC breaker, SMPS, DC filter, Inverter, CT, PT, DSP board, HMI, AC reactor, MC and EMI filter and Fault Tree was drawn. It is expected that the MCS and the importance of basic event resulting from this study will help find and remove the causes of failure and power outage in PCS for efficient safety management.

Analysis of PD Distribution Characteristics and Comparison of Classification Methods according to Electrical Tree Source in Power Cable (전력용 케이블 시편에서 전기트리 발생원에 따른 부분방전 분포 특성 및 발생원 분류기법 비교)

  • Park, Seong-Hee;Jeong, Hae-Eun;Lim, Kee-Joe;Kang, Seong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2007
  • One of the cause of insulation failure in power cable is well known by electrical treeing discharge. This is occurred for imposed continuous stress at cable. And this event is related to safety, reliability and maintenance. In this paper, throughout analysis of partial discharge(PD) distribution when occurring the electrical tree, is studied for the purpose of knowing of electrical treeing discharge characteristics according to defects. Own characteristic of tree will be differently processed in each defect and this reason is the first purpose of this paper. To acquire PD data, three defective tree models were made. And their own data is shown by the phase-resolved partial discharge method (PRPD). As a result of PRPD, tree discharge sources have their own characteristics. And if other defects (void, metal particle) exist internal power cable then their characteristics are shown very different. This result Is related to the time of breakdown and this is importance of cable diagnosis. And classification method of PD sources was studied in this paper. It needs select the most useful method to apply PD data classification one of the proposed method. To meet the requirement, we select methods of different type. That is, neural network(NN-BP), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and PCA-LDA were applied to result. As a result of, ANFIS shows the highest rate which value is 98 %. Generally, PCA-LDA and ANFIS are better than BP. Finally, we performed classification of tree progress using ANFIS and that result is 92 %.

Reliability Analysis of the Reactor Protection System Using Markov Processes (마코프 프로세스를 이용한 원자로 보호계통의 신뢰도 분석)

  • Jo, Nam-Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.279-291
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    • 1987
  • The event tree/fault tree techniques used in the current probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants are based on the binary and static description of the components and the system. While these techniques Bay be adequate in most of the safety studies, more advanced techniques, e.g., the Markov reliability analysis, are required to accurately study such problems as the plant availability assessments and technical specifications evaluations that are becoming increasingly important. This paper describes a Markov model for the Reactor Protection System of a pressurized water reactor and presents results of model evaluations for two testing policies in technical specifications.

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