• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation reliability

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Application of Inference Models for Estimating Parameters of a Catchment Modelling System (추론모델을 통한 강우-유출모형 매개변수의 간접추정법 적용)

  • Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.587-596
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    • 2003
  • Application of a catchment modelling system requires recorded information to ascertain the reliability and robustness of the predicted flow conditions. Where this recorded information is not available, the necessary information for reliable and robust predictions must be obtained from other available information sources. The alternative approach presented in this paper used inference models for getting this necessary information that is required to calibrate and validate the catchment modelling system for both an ungauged and a gauged catchments. In this study, inference models were developed for determination of control parameters of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), mainly based on landuse component of the catchment, which is a major factor to impact on quantity and quality of catchment runoff. Results from the study show that the new approach for determination of the spatially variable control parameters produced more accurate estimates than a traditional approach. Also, the number of control parameters estimated can be reduced significantly as the proposed method only requires determination of control parameters associated with each land use of the catchment while a traditional approach needs to assign a number of control parameters for a number of subcatchment.

The study on scheme for train position detection based on GPS/DR (GPS/DR기반의 차상열차위치검지방안 연구)

  • Shin, Kyung-Ho;Joung, Eui-Jin;Lee, Jun-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2006.11b
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    • pp.802-810
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    • 2006
  • For a thorough train control, the precise train position detection is necessarily required. The widely used current way for train position detection is the one of using track circuits. The track circuit has a simple structure, and has a high level of reliability. However trains can be detected only on track circuits, which have to be installed on all ground sections, and much amount of cost for its installation and maintenance is needed. In addition, for the track circuit, only discontinuous position detection is possible because of the features of the closed circuit loop configuration. As the recent advances in telecommunication technologies and high-tech vehicle-based control equipments, for the train position detection, the method to detect positions directly from on trains is being studied. Vehicle-based position detection method is to estimate train positions, speed, timing data continuously, and to use them as the control information. In this paper, the features of GPS navigation and DR navigation are analyzed, and the navigation filters are designed by constructing vehicle-based train position detection method by combining GPS navigation and DR navigation for their complementary cooperation, and by using kalman filter. The position estimation performance of the proposed method is also confirmed by simulations.

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Estimate Saliency map based on Multi Feature Assistance of Learning Algorithm (다중 특징을 지원하는 학습 기반의 saliency map에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Hyun-Ho;Lee, Gang-Seong;Park, Young-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose a method for generating improved saliency map by learning multiple features to improve the accuracy and reliability of saliency map which has similar result to human visual perception type. In order to overcome the inaccurate result of reverse selection or partial loss in color based salient area estimation in existing salience map generation, the proposed method generates multi feature data based on learning. The features to be considered in the image are analyzed through the process of distinguishing the color pattern and the region having the specificity in the original image, and the learning data is composed by the combination of the similar protrusion area definition and the specificity area using the LAB color space based color analysis. After combining the training data with the extrinsic information obtained from low level features such as frequency, color, and focus information, we reconstructed the final saliency map to minimize the inaccurate saliency area. For the experiment, we compared the ground truth image with the experimental results and obtained the precision-recall value.

Estimation of Heading Date for Rice Cultivars Using ORYZA (v3) (ORYZA (v3) 모델을 사용한 벼 품종별 출수기 예측)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.246-251
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    • 2017
  • Crop models have been used to predict a heading date for efficient management of fertilizer application. Recently, the ORYZA (v3) model was developed to improve the ORYZA2000 model, which has been used for simulation of rice growth in Korea. Still, little effort has been made to assess applicability of the ORYZA (v3) model to rice farms in Korea. The objective of this study was to evaluate reliability of heading dates predicted using the the ORYZA (v3) model, which would indicate applicability of the model to a decision support system for fertilizer application. Field experiments were conducted from 2015-2016 at the Rural Development Administration (RDA) to obtain rice phenology data. Shindongjin cultivar which is mid-late maturity type was grown under a conventional fertilizer management, e.g., application of fertilizer at the rate of 11 Kg N/10a. Another set of heading dates was obtained from annual reports at experiment farms operated by the National Institute of Crop Science and Agricultural Technology Centers in each province. The input files for the ORYZA (v3) model were prepared using weather and soil data collected from the Korean Meteorology Administration (KMA) and the Korean Soil Information System, respectively. Input parameters for crop management, e.g., transplanting date and planting density, were set to represent management used for the field experiment. The ORYZA (v3) model predicted heading date within 1 day for two seasons. The crop model also had a relatively small error in prediction of heading date for three ecotypes of rice cultivars at experiment farms where weather input data were obtained from a near-by weather station. Those results suggested that the ORYZA (v3) model would be useful for development of a decision support system for fertilizer application when reliable input data for weather variables become available.

Analysis of Crop Survey Protocols to Support Parameter Calibration and Verification for Crop Models of Major Vegetables (주요 채소 작물 대상 작물 모형 모수 추정 및 검증을 지원하기 위한 생육 조사 프로토콜 분석)

  • Kim, Kwang Soo;Kim, Junhwan;Hyun, Shinwoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.68-78
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    • 2020
  • Crop models have been used to predict vegetable crop yield, which would have a considerable economic impact on consumers as well as producers. A small number of models have been developed to estimate growth and yield of vegetables due to limited availability of growth observation data in high-quality. In this study, we aimed to analyze the protocols designed for collection of the observation data for major vegetable crops including cabbage, radish, garlic, onion and pepper. We also designed the protocols suitable for development and verification of a vegetable crop growth model. In particular, different measures were proposed to improve the existing protocol used by Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) and Rural Development Administration (RDA), which would enhance reliability of parameter estimation for the crop model. It would be advantageous to select sampling sites in areas where reliable weather observation data can be obtained because crop models quantify the response of crop growth to given weather conditions. It is recommended to choose multiple sampling sites where climate conditions would differ. It is crucial to collect time series data for comparison between observed and simulated crop growth and yield. A crop model can be developed to predict actual yield rather than attainable yield using data for crop damage caused by diseases and pests as well as weather anomalies. A bigdata platform where the observation data are to be shared would facilitate the development of crop models for vegetable crops.

Study on Water Stage Prediction Using Hybrid Model of Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm (인공신경망과 유전자알고리즘의 결합모형을 이용한 수위예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yeo, Woon-Ki;Seo, Young-Min;Lee, Seung-Yoon;Jee, Hong-Kee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.721-731
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    • 2010
  • The rainfall-runoff relationship is very difficult to predict because it is complicate factor affected by many temporal and spatial parameters of the basin. In recent, models which is based on artificial intelligent such as neural network, genetic algorithm fuzzy etc., are frequently used to predict discharge while stochastic or deterministic or empirical models are used in the past. However, the discharge data which are generally used for prediction as training and validation set are often estimated from rating curve which has potential error in its estimation that makes a problem in reliability. Therefore, in this study, water stage is predicted from antecedent rainfall and water stage data for short term using three models of neural network which trained by error back propagation algorithm and optimized by genetic algorithm and training error back propagation after it is optimized by genetic algorithm respectively. As the result, the model optimized by Genetic Algorithm gives the best forecasting ability which is not much decreased as the forecasting time increase. Moreover, the models using stage data only as the input data give better results than the models using precipitation data with stage data.

A Study on the Estimation of Pedestrian Signal Timing (횡단보도 보행신호시간 산정에 관한 연구)

  • An, Gye-Hyeong;Kim, Eun-Jeong;Lee, Yong-Il;Jeong, Jun-Ha;Kim, Yeong-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents new pedestrian signal timings considering pedestrian demand Pedestrian characteristics, and land use which were obtained by Pedestrian characteristics field survey and pedestrian signal operation survey. Pedestrian signal timings suggested were compared to the existing pedestrian signal timings by using real field data. pedestrian characteristics field survey was conducted to collect pedestrian crossing speed data and reaction time data. Sixteen areas in Seoul were selected for the data collection. The average pedestrian crossing speed was 1.30m/sec and the 15th Percentile speed was 1.11m/sec. The average reaction time was 2.24 seconds. Pedestrian crossing speed differs by land use, road width. pedestrian age, sex, and number of Pedestrians. Reaction time also differs by road width, pedestrian age, and number of pedestrians. Statistical testing was performed to secure reliability of the collected data.

Development of Estimation Model of Trip Generation Model and Trip Distribution Model Reflecting Coefficient of Accessibility (접근성 변수를 반영한 통행발생 및 통행분포모형 개발)

  • Jeon, Yong-Hyun;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Jang, Jun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.576-584
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    • 2017
  • Traffic demand prediction result is a primary factor for decision making such as the traffic planning and operation. The existing traffic demand prediction 4-step model only covers the trip between the origin and the destination, and not the demand followed by the accessibility improvement, due to the characteristic of this model. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to improve the limitations of the existing model by developing the inter-city trip generation and trip distribution model with more accessibility. After calculating of the trip generation and trip distribution model with more accessibility, the sign of the accessibility coefficient was positive. Commuting was the most insensitive indicator, affected by external factors among the other trip purposes. The leisure trip was the most sensitive, affected by the trip fee. According to the result of comparison with each of estimated model and observational data, it was certain that the reliability and assumption of the model have been improved by discovering the reduced weighted average error rate, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and total error through the model with more accessibility compared with the existing one.

Comparison of Approximate Nonlinear Methods for Incremental Dynamic Analysis of Seismic Performance (내진성능의 증분동적해석을 위한 비선형 약산법의 비교 검토)

  • Bae, Kyeong-Geun;Yu, Myeong-Hwa;Kang, Pyeong-Doo;Kim, Jae-Ung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2008
  • Seismic performance evaluation of structure requires an estimation of the structural performance in terms of displacement demand imposed by earthquakes on the structure. Incremental Dynamic Analysis(IDA) is a analysis method that has recently emerged to estimate structural performance under earthquakes. This method can obtained the entire range of structural performance from the linear elastic stage to yielding and finally collapse by subjecting the structure to increasing levels of ground acceleration. Most structures are expected to deform beyond the limit of linearly elastic behavior when subjected to strong ground motion. The nonlinear response history analysis(NRHA) among various nonlinear analysis methods is the most accurate to compute seismic performance of structures, but it is time-consuming and necessitate more efforts. The nonlinear approximate methods, which is more practical and reliable tools for predicting seismic behavior of structures, are extensively studied. The uncoupled modal response history analysis(UMRHA) is a method which can find the nonlinear reponse of the structures for ESDF from the pushover curve using NRHA or response spectrum. The direct spectrum analysis(DSA) is approximate nonlinear method to evaluate nonlinear response of structures, without iterative computations, given by the structural linear vibration period and yield strength from the pushover analysis. In this study, the practicality and the reliability of seismic performance of approximate nonlinear methods for incremental dynamic analysis of mixed building structures are to be compared.

Accuracy Assessment of the Satellite-based IMERG's Monthly Rainfall Data in the Inland Region of Korea (한반도 육상지역에서의 위성기반 IMERG 월 강수 관측 자료의 정확도 평가)

  • Ryu, Sumin;Hong, Sungwook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.533-544
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    • 2018
  • Rainfall is one of the most important meteorological variables in meteorology, agriculture, hydrology, natural disaster, construction, and architecture. Recently, satellite remote sensing is essential to the accurate detection, estimation, and prediction of rainfall. In this study, the accuracy of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) product, a composite rainfall information based on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite was evaluated with ground observation data in the inland of Korea. The Automatic Weather Station (AWS)-based rainfall measurement data were used for validation. The IMERG and AWS rainfall data were collocated and compared during one year from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. The coastal regions and islands were also evaluated irrespective of the well-known uncertainty of satellite-based rainfall data. Consequently, the IMERG data showed a high correlation (0.95) and low error statistics of Bias (15.08 mm/mon) and RMSE (30.32 mm/mon) in comparison to AWS observations. In coastal regions and islands, the IMERG data have a high correlation more than 0.7 as well as inland regions, and the reliability of IMERG data was verified as rainfall data.