• 대한수의학회지
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.149-155
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• 2009

The objective of this study was to analyze data from the planned national serological monitoring program for Aujeszky's disease (AD) using a simulation model to evaluate probable outcomes expected in the sample derived from the simulated herds at predefined within-herd prevalence and herd prevalence. Additionally, prevalence at animal- and herd-level estimated by the stochastic simulation model based on the distributions of the proportion of infected herds and test-positive animals was compared with those of data from a national serological survey in 2006, in which 106,762 fattening pigs from 5,325 herds were tested for AD using a commercial ELISA kit. A fixed value of 95% was used for test sensitivity, and the specificity was modeled with a minimum, most likely and maximum of 95, 97 and 99%, respectively. The within-herd prevalence and herd prevalence was modeled using Pert and Triang distributions, respectively with a minimum, most likely and maximum point values. In all calculations, population size of 1,000 was used due to lack of representative information. The mean number of infected herds and true test-positives was estimated to be 27 herds (median = 25; 95% percentile 44) and 214 pigs (median = 196; 95% percentile 423), respectively. When testing 20 pigs (mean of 2006 survey) in each herd, there was a 3.3% probability that the potential for false-positive reactions due to less than 100% specificity of the ELISA test would be detected. It was found that the model showed prevalence of 0.21% (99% percentile 0.50%) and 0.5% (99% percentile 0.99%) at animal- and herd-level, respectively. These rates were much similar to data from the 2006 survey (0.62% versus 0.83%). The overall mean herd-level sensitivity of the 2006 survey for fattening pigs was 99.9%, with only a 0.2% probability of failing to detect at least one infected herd.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.751-758
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• 2013

본 논문에서 공복혈당장애군의 식품섭취빈도와 당뇨병군의 식품섭취빈도를 대조군과 Pearson 상관계수 산출방법을 통해 두 가지의 식품섭취빈도에서의 상관관계에 따른 공복혈당장애 유병율과 당뇨병 유병율 수치를 분석함으로써 특정 질병군과 유사한 식품섭취빈도가 유병율에 미치는 영향을 보고자 하였다. "국민건강영양조사"의 제 4기(2007-2009) 자료를 이용하여 공복혈당장애군의 식품섭취빈도 평균과 당뇨병군의 식품섭취빈도 평균을 산출하여 30-59세 대상자들과의 상관관계 비교 후 유사도 집단별 공복혈당장애와 당뇨병 유병율을 산출하였다. 또한 집단별 식품섭취빈도 평균차를 통해 식품섭취빈도 유사도 집단별 다빈도 섭취식품을 분석하였다. 공복혈당장애군과 유사한 식품섭취빈도군은 공복혈당장애는 유의하지 않았으나 당뇨병 유병율에서는 가장 유사한 집단이 가장 비유사한 집단에 비해 높은 유병율이 산출되었다. 당뇨병군에서 역시 공복혈당장애의 유병율은 유의하지 않았으나, 당뇨병 유병율에서는 유의한 결과를 산출하였다. 본 논문의 분석방법을 통해 국가표본조사 데이터를 이용하여 특정 질병을 가진 집단의 식품섭취빈도와 유사할 경우 특정 질병의 유병율의 경향을 보임으로써 식품섭취의 관계 연구에 기여할 수 있다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.219-227
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• 2014

Background: Current trends in Korea population aging with advances in public health and clinical medicine foretell rises in the prevalence of not only chronic diseases but also patients with multimorbidity. One important aspect in analyzing multimorbidity is to define the list of chronic diseases included when calculating multimorbidity index. The objective of this study is to describing the effect of multimorbidity on healthcare cost in Korea using US Office of the Assistant Secretary of Health (OASH) list. Methods: We analyzed the Korea Health Panel Data representing non-institutionalized Korean adult populations aged 20 and more. We calculated multimorbidity index based on OASH list and estimated the prevalence and healthcare cost for each OASH chronic disease. Results: In 2011, 15.2 million (39.6%) Koreans aged 20 and more were living with chronic condition. The health care cost due to chronic diseases, accounted for 80.2% of the overall healthcare costs and the prevalence of chronic conditions, the prevalence of multimorbidity and healthcare cost increased with ages. In the analysis using OASH list, 40% of the adult population over the age of 20 and 66.7% of the population over the age of 65 was affected with multimorbidity. In most of diseases in OASH list, prevalence of mulitmorbidity was high and healthcare cost increased with multimorbidity. Conclusion: OASH chronic disease list that accounts for 72.4% of prevalence and 86.7% of healthcare cost of persons with chronic conditions in Korea. OASH chronic disease list would be a useful and representative indicator for studying multimorbidity.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• 제52권6호
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• pp.621-629
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• 2014

Malaria is one of the most widespread infectious diseases of tropical countries with an estimated 207 million cases globally. In India, there are endemic pockets of this disease, including Aligarh. Hundreds of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax cases with severe pathological conditions are recorded every year in this district. The aim of this study is to find out changes in liver enzymes and kidney markers. Specific diagnosis for P. falciparum and P. vivax was made by microscopic examination of Giemsa stained slides. Clinical symptoms were observed in both of these infections. Liver enzymes, such as AST, ALT, and ALP, and kidney function markers, such as creatinine and urea, were estimated by standard biochemical techniques. In Aligarh district, P. vivax, P. falciparum, and mixed infections were 64%, 34%, and 2%, respectively. In case of P. falciparum infection, the incidences of anemia, splenomegaly, renal failure, jaundice, and neurological sequelae were higher compared to those in P. vivax infection. Recrudescence and relapse rates were 18% and 20% in P. falciparum and P. vivax infections, respectively. Liver dysfunctions and renal failures were more common in P. falciparum patients, particularly in elderly patients. Artesunate derivatives must, therefore, be introduced for the treatment of P. falciparum as they resist to chloroquine as well as sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine combinations.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.428-436
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• 2019

Background: Metalworking fluids (MWFs) are mixtures with inhalation exposures as mists, dusts, and vapors, and dermal exposure in the dispersed and bulk liquid phase. A quantitative risk assessment was performed for exposure to MWF and respiratory disease. Methods: Risks associated with MWF were derived from published studies and NIOSH Health Hazard Evaluations, and lifetime risks were calculated. The outcomes analyzed included adult onset asthma, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, pulmonary function impairment, and reported symptoms. Incidence rates were compiled or estimated, and annual proportional loss of respiratory capacity was derived from cross-sectional assessments. Results: A strong healthy worker survivor effect was present. New-onset asthma and hypersensitivity pneumonitis, at 0.1 mg/㎥ MWF under continuous outbreak conditions, had a lifetime risk of 45%; if the associated microbiological conditions occur with only 5% prevalence, then the lifetime risk would be about 3%. At 0.1 mg/㎥, the estimate of excess lifetime risk of attributable pulmonary impairment was 0.25%, which may have been underestimated by a factor of 5 or more by a strong healthy worker survivor effect. The symptom prevalence associated with respiratory impairment at 0.1 mg/㎥ MWF was estimated to be 5% (published studies) and 21% (Health Hazard Evaluations). Conclusion: Significant risks of impairment and chronic disease occurred at 0.1 mg/㎥ for MWFs in use mostly before 2000. Evolving MWFs contain new ingredients with uncharacterized long-term hazards.

• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.422-426
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• 2011

For a national survey in which wide geographic region or an entire country is targeted, multi-stage sampling approach is widely used to overcome the problem of simple random sampling, to consider both herd- and animallevel factors associated with disease occurrence, and to adjust clustering effect of disease in the population in the calculation of sample size. The aim of this study was to establish sample size for estimating bovine tuberculosis (TB) in Korea using stratified two-stage sampling design. The sample size was determined by taking into account the possible clustering of TB-infected animals on individual herds to increase the reliability of survey results. In this study, the country was stratified into nine provinces (administrative unit) and herd, the primary sampling unit, was considered as a cluster. For all analyses, design effect of 2, between-cluster prevalence of 50% to yield maximum sample size, and mean herd size of 65 were assumed due to lack of information available. Using a two-stage sampling scheme, the number of cattle sampled per herd was 65 cattle, regardless of confidence level, prevalence, and mean herd size examined. Number of clusters to be sampled at a 95% level of confidence was estimated to be 296, 74, 33, 19, 12, and 9 for desired precision of 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. Therefore, the total sample size with a 95% confidence level was 172,872, 43,218, 19,224, 10,818, 6,930, and 4,806 for desired precision ranging from 0.01 to 0.06. The sample size was increased with desired precision and design effect. In a situation where the number of cattle sampled per herd is fixed ranging from 5 to 40 with a 5-head interval, total sample size with a 95% confidence level was estimated to be 6,480, 10,080, 13,770, 17,280, 20.925, 24,570, 28,350, and 31,680, respectively. The percent increase in total sample size resulting from the use of intra-cluster correlation coefficient of 0.3 was 22.2, 32.1, 36.3, 39.6, 41.9, 42.9, 42,2, and 44.3%, respectively in comparison to the use of coefficient of 0.2.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.83-90
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• 2017

Objectives: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.170-175
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• 2018

Purpose: Lactose intolerance (LI) is perceived to be frequent in Asia and has been reported to have considerable impact on dietary intake, nutritional status and the quality of life. We aimed to gather information from healthcare professionals on the perceived incidence, diagnosis and management of LI in 1 to 5 year old children in Southeast Asia. Methods: An anonymous electronic survey was sent randomly among healthcare professionals registered in the database of the pediatric societies in Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore between June and October 2016. Results: In total, 259 health care professionals responded of which 45.5% (n=118) were from Thailand, 37.4% (n=97) from Indonesia and 16.9% (n=44) from Singapore. Of the participants who responded (n=248), primary LI prevalence among children 1 to 3 years of age was estimated to be less than 5% by 56.8%. However, about 18.9% (n=47) answered they did not know/unsure. Regarding secondary LI, 61.6% of respondents (n=153) estimated the prevalence to be less than 15%. But again, 10.8% (n=27) answered they did not know or unsure. Rotavirus gastroenteritis was ranked as the top cause for secondary LI. There was considerable heterogeneity in the diagnostic methods used. The majority of respondents (75%) recommended lactose-free milk to manage primary and secondary LI. Conclusion: More education/training of pediatricians on this topic and further epidemiological studies using a more systematic approach are required.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.901-910
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• 2008

국내 삼일열 말라리아는 1990년대 중반부터 급격히 증가하여 2000년대에는 연평균 1600여명이 발병하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이미 알려진 잠복기 분포와 2001년부터 2006년까지의 발병자수 자료에 바탕하여 후향연산식을 활용하여 국내 삼일열 말라리아의 감염분포를 최소제곱법으로 추정하였다. 추정된 감염분포는 평균이 207일이고 표준편차가 30.7일인 정규분포를 이루었다. 이를 이용하여 연간 유병자수 분포를 산출한 결과, 말라리아의 하루 평균 유병자수는 628.8명 이었다.

• 한국동물위생학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.45-50
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• 2010

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is major cause of chronic respiratory disease in chickens. M. synoviae (MS) most frequently occurs a subclinical upper respiratory infection but may result in airsacculitis and synovitis in chickens and turkeys. Both mycoplasmas induce economic losses by triggering chronic respiratory signs, airsacculitis and decreased egg production. For prevention of the infections, live attenuated andinactivated vaccines are commercially used for prevention of MG but not MS in Korea. Serum plate agglutination (SPA) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) have been commonly used for serological diagnosis for MG and MS. Recently, it is believed that MS spread in chickens is very seriously in Korea and respiratory infection with MS causes substantial loss in poultry farms. In this study, we investigated the serological prevalence of MG and MS in unvaccinated chickens between 2008 and 2009. The overall seroprevalence of MG was 24% of 2,094 for individual chickens and 24% of 189 farms. The overall seroprevalence of MS was 36% in 2,095 chickens and 39% in 198 farms. The results show that seropositive ratio of MS is higher than MG. The geographical prevalence of MG has been estimated in following sequence; Gangwon, Jeolla, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, and Chungcheong. The geographical prevalence of MS has been estimated as follows; Gangwon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, and Jeolla. Seasonal seroprevalencewas also examined, and it found that seroprevalence in spring, fall and winter was higher than that in summer in MG, but not in MS. No significant difference was shown in seroprevalence according to breed. Future study about pathogenicity of MS isolates would be needed and economical losses by MS outbreaks should be analyzed. Moreover, we compared sero-positivity obtained with SPA and ELISA. The kappa value of MG between SPA and ELISA was 0.8061 and the kappa value of MS between SPA and ELISA was 0.7649.