Korean Journal of Veterinary Research (대한수의학회지)

The Korean Society of Veterinary Science (대한수의학회)
권호 표지

A simulation model for evaluating serological monitoring program of Aujeszky's disease

확률모형을 이용한 오제스키병 혈청학적 모니터링 프로그램 평가

  • Chang, Ki-Yoon (Animal Health Division, Livestock Policy Bureau, Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries) ;
  • Pak, Son-Il (School of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Park, Choi-Kyu (National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service) ;
  • Lee, Kyoung-Ki (National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service) ;
  • Joo, Yi-Seok (National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service)
  • 장기윤 (축산정책단, 농림수산식품부) ;
  • 박선일 (강원대학교 수의학부대학 및 동물의학종합연구소) ;
  • 박최규 (국립수의과학검역원) ;
  • 이경기 (국립수의과학검역원) ;
  • 주이석 (국립수의과학검역원)
  • Accepted : 2009.06.01
  • Published : 2009.06.30
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze data from the planned national serological monitoring program for Aujeszky's disease (AD) using a simulation model to evaluate probable outcomes expected in the sample derived from the simulated herds at predefined within-herd prevalence and herd prevalence. Additionally, prevalence at animal- and herd-level estimated by the stochastic simulation model based on the distributions of the proportion of infected herds and test-positive animals was compared with those of data from a national serological survey in 2006, in which 106,762 fattening pigs from 5,325 herds were tested for AD using a commercial ELISA kit. A fixed value of 95% was used for test sensitivity, and the specificity was modeled with a minimum, most likely and maximum of 95, 97 and 99%, respectively. The within-herd prevalence and herd prevalence was modeled using Pert and Triang distributions, respectively with a minimum, most likely and maximum point values. In all calculations, population size of 1,000 was used due to lack of representative information. The mean number of infected herds and true test-positives was estimated to be 27 herds (median = 25; 95% percentile 44) and 214 pigs (median = 196; 95% percentile 423), respectively. When testing 20 pigs (mean of 2006 survey) in each herd, there was a 3.3% probability that the potential for false-positive reactions due to less than 100% specificity of the ELISA test would be detected. It was found that the model showed prevalence of 0.21% (99% percentile 0.50%) and 0.5% (99% percentile 0.99%) at animal- and herd-level, respectively. These rates were much similar to data from the 2006 survey (0.62% versus 0.83%). The overall mean herd-level sensitivity of the 2006 survey for fattening pigs was 99.9%, with only a 0.2% probability of failing to detect at least one infected herd.

Keywords

References

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