• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimate the future value

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The Application of Accommodative Facility Test in Accommodation Assessment (조절평가시 조절용이성 검사의 적용)

  • Park, Hyun-Ju;Cho, Young-Rae;Kim, Jai-Min
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.167-171
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    • 2004
  • The accommodative facility test can be use the very benetit in visual function test. The purpose of this study was mainly to check the binocular function and to estimate the amount of accommodation with the hand held flipper. It was measured as the subjective time needed to clear an accommodative target (20/20 letters) at 40 em through +/-2.00 D flipper(Bernell Corp., USA). The subjects have an irrespective of sex and no eye disease. Seventy five of youth applicants participated for the accommodative facility test. The reagents using the flipper had higher expected value than the other reagents. In test for the binocular function, the accommodative facility test is a important part due to a serviceable and simple examination. Therefore, these binocular checkup have to be developed through a survey of normative value in the near future.

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Development of Forecast Algorithm for Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Arrival Time Based on Propagation Tracking by Interplanetary Scintillation g-Value

  • Park, Sa-Rah;Jeon, Ho-Cheol;Kim, Rok-soon;Kim, Jong-Hyeon;Kim, Seung-Jin;Cho, Junghee;Jang, Soojeong
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2020
  • We have developed an algorithm for tracking coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation that allows us to estimate CME speed and its arrival time at Earth. The algorithm may be used either to forecast the CME's arrival on the day of the forecast or to update the CME tracking information for the next day's forecast. In our case study, we successfully tracked CME propagation using the algorithm based on g-values of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation provided by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE). We were able to forecast the arrival time (Δt = 0.30 h) and speed (Δv = 20 km/s) of a CME event on October 2, 2000. From the CME-interplanetary CME (ICME) pairs provided by Cane & Richardson (2003), we selected 50 events to evaluate the algorithm's forecast capability. Average errors for arrival time and speed were 11.14 h and 310 km/s, respectively. Results demonstrated that g-values obtained continuously from any single station observation were able to be used as a proxy for CME speed. Therefore, our algorithm may give stable daily forecasts of CME position and speed during propagation in the region of 0.2-1 AU using the IPS g-values, even if IPS velocity observations are insufficient. We expect that this algorithm may be widely accepted for use in space weather forecasting in the near future.

Estimations of flow rate and pollutant loading changes of the Yo-Cheon basin under AR5 climate change scenarios using SWA (SWAT을 이용한 AR5 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 섬진강 요천유역의 유량 및 오염부하량 변화 예측)

  • Jang, Yujin;Park, Jongtae;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-233
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    • 2018
  • Two climate change scenarios, the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were applied in the Yocheon basin area using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate changes in flow rates and pollutant loadings in the future. Field stream flow rate data in Songdong station and water quality data in Yocheon-1 station between 2013~2015 were used for model calibration. While $R^2$ value of flow rate calibration was 0.85 and $R^2$ value of water qualities were in the 0.12~0.43 range. The total study period was divided into 4 sub periods as 2030s (2016~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The predicted results of flow rates and water quality concentrations were compared with results in calibrated periods, 2015s (2013~2015). In both RCP scenarios, flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) loadings were estimated to be in increasing trend while TN (Total Nitrogen) and TP (Total Phosphorus) loadings showed decreasing patterns. Also, flow rates and pollutant loadings showed larger differences between the maximum and the minimum values in RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5 scenarios indicating more severe effect of drought and flood, respectively. Dependent on simulation period and rainfall periods in a year, flow rate, TSS, TN and TP showed different trends in each scenario. This emphasizes importance of considerations on time and space when analyzing climate change impacts of each variable under various scenarios.

A Study on System of Feasibility Study and Issues of Economic Analysis in Cultural Facility Construction: Focused on the National Museum of Contemporary Art(MMCA), Seoul (문화시설 건립 타당성조사의 체계와 경제성 분석에서의 쟁점 - 국립현대미술관 서울관 건립사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Sang-chul
    • Korean Association of Arts Management
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    • no.53
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    • pp.101-125
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents the problems and improvement methods in estimating demand and benefit, which have been controversial in the feasibility study of building cultural facilities. Although there are justifications for supplying cultural facilities by expanding leisure time and increasing income, the economic burden from the insolvent operation after construction is high. Feasibility studies can prevent these problems in advance. In order to estimate the demand for cultural facilities, similar facilities were selected and the gravity model was used to estimate the demand. In the future, it is necessary to prepare the criteria for setting the reference facility to increase the accuracy of the demand estimation. In addition, in the case of cultural facilities constructed through feasibility study, it is necessary to induce and enforce the disclosure of operational data and information, and to establish a database so that it can be used as a reference facility for demand estimation in future feasibility study on cultural facility. Accurate benefit estimation requires multiple CVM surveys. In addition to the current CVM survey, this paper suggest that supplementary online non-face-to-face surveys is considered. Furthermore, this research suggests that the use of video media for explanation of alternative materials for cultural facilities to be constructed because the WTP may be excessive due to lack of alternatives for survey respondents in the current CVM survey.

Prediction of SWAT Stream Flow Using Only Future Precipitation Data (미래 강수량 자료만을 이용한 SWAT모형의 유출 예측)

  • Lee, Ji Min;Kum, Donghyuk;Kim, Young Sug;Kim, Yun Jung;Kang, Hyunwoo;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lee, Gwan Jae;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2013
  • Much attention has been needed in water resource management at the watershed due to drought and flooding issues caused by climate change in recent years. Increase in air temperature and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change are affecting hydrologic cycles, such as evaporation and soil moisture. Thus, these phenomena result in increased runoff at the watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been used to evaluate rainfall-runoff at the watershed reflecting effects on hydrology of various weather data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed. For bias-correction of RCP data, at least 30 year data are needed. However, for most gaging stations, only precipitation data have been recorded and very little stations have recorded other weather data. In addition, the RCP scenario does not provide all weather data for the SWAT model. In this study, two scenarios were made to evaluate whether it would be possible to estimate streamflow using measured precipitation and long-term average values of other weather data required for running the SWAT. With measured long-term weather data (scenario 1) and with long-term average values of weather data except precipitation (scenario 2), the estimate streamflow values were almost the same with NSE value of 0.99. Increase/decrease by ${\pm}2%$, ${\pm}4%$ in temperature and humidity data did not affect streamflow. Thus, the RCP precipitation data for Hongcheon watershed were bias-corrected with measured long-term precipitation data to evaluate effects of climate change on streamflow. The results revealed that estimated streamflow for 2055s was the greatest among data for 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. However, estimated streamflow for 2085s decreased by 9%. In addition, streamflow for Spring would be expected to increase compared with current data and streamflow for Summer will be decreased with RCP data. The results obtained in this study indicate that the streamflow could be estimated with long-term precipitation data only and effects of climate change could be evaluated using precipitation data as shown in this study.

Development of Systematic Process for Estimating Commercialization Duration and Cost of R&D Performance (기술가치 평가를 위한 기술사업화 기간 및 비용 추정체계 개발)

  • Jun, Seoung-Pyo;Choi, Daeheon;Park, Hyun-Woo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.139-160
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    • 2017
  • Technology commercialization creates effective economic value by linking the company's R & D processes and outputs to the market. This technology commercialization is important in that a company can retain and maintain a sustained competitive advantage. In order for a specific technology to be commercialized, it goes through the stage of technical planning, technology research and development, and commercialization. This process involves a lot of time and money. Therefore, the duration and cost of technology commercialization are important decision information for determining the market entry strategy. In addition, it is more important information for a technology investor to rationally evaluate the technology value. In this way, it is very important to scientifically estimate the duration and cost of the technology commercialization. However, research on technology commercialization is insufficient and related methodology are lacking. In this study, we propose an evaluation model that can estimate the duration and cost of R & D technology commercialization for small and medium-sized enterprises. To accomplish this, this study collected the public data of the National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS) and the survey data provided by the Small and Medium Business Administration. Also this study will develop the estimation model of commercialization duration and cost of R&D performance on using these data based on the market approach, one of the technology valuation methods. Specifically, this study defined the process of commercialization as consisting of development planning, development progress, and commercialization. We collected the data from the NTIS database and the survey of SMEs technical statistics of the Small and Medium Business Administration. We derived the key variables such as stage-wise R&D costs and duration, the factors of the technology itself, the factors of the technology development, and the environmental factors. At first, given data, we estimates the costs and duration in each technology readiness level (basic research, applied research, development research, prototype production, commercialization), for each industry classification. Then, we developed and verified the research model of each industry classification. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. Firstly, it is reflected in the technology valuation model and can be used to estimate the objective economic value of technology. The duration and the cost from the technology development stage to the commercialization stage is a critical factor that has a great influence on the amount of money to discount the future sales from the technology. The results of this study can contribute to more reliable technology valuation because it estimates the commercialization duration and cost scientifically based on past data. Secondly, we have verified models of various fields such as statistical model and data mining model. The statistical model helps us to find the important factors to estimate the duration and cost of technology Commercialization, and the data mining model gives us the rules or algorithms to be applied to an advanced technology valuation system. Finally, this study reaffirms the importance of commercialization costs and durations, which has not been actively studied in previous studies. The results confirm the significant factors to affect the commercialization costs and duration, furthermore the factors are different depending on industry classification. Practically, the results of this study can be reflected in the technology valuation system, which can be provided by national research institutes and R & D staff to provide sophisticated technology valuation. The relevant logic or algorithm of the research result can be implemented independently so that it can be directly reflected in the system, so researchers can use it practically immediately. In conclusion, the results of this study can be a great contribution not only to the theoretical contributions but also to the practical ones.

A Study on the Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation Frequency Factor in Korea (우리나라의 최대하강수량 빈도계수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • No, Jae-Sik;Lee, Won-Hwan;Lee, Gil-Chun
    • Water for future
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.249-258
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the PMP frequency factor for evaluation of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) in Korea. The value of PMP is the criterion of the determination of design rainfall in Planning and designing hydraulic structures, and water resources management. To obtain the object, 12 key stations were selected in which have the automatic rain0recording paper of 20 years, and the annual maximum rainfall values were calculated for each 7 durations(10 min., 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 24 hr.). The statistics(mean, standard deviation)were estimated, and diagram which shows the relationship between mean annual maximum rainfall($$) and frequency factor for each durations were drawn. PMP was estimated by statistical method using the PMP frequency factor obtained from the diagram and statistics($$, Sn). The PMP-Duration Equation was derived from the envelope curve in order to obtain the PMP for an arbitrary duration. The isohyetal map of 24 hours PMP and PMP. DAD curve for the whole of Korea were drawn in accordance with the point PMP values.

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A Proposal of Repair Cost Estimating Criteria for Persistent Defects in Apartment Houses

  • Lee, Hae-Jin;Lim, Nam-Gi
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.597-608
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    • 2011
  • It has been often noted as a problem that as there are no objective and clear criteria for the repair cost estimate of persistent defects, when a claim arises in relation to an apartment construction, significantly different amounts of compensation may be given for similar defects based on the experience and tendencies of the construction experts asked to make a judgment. For this reason, this research aims to present defect managers with a more reasonable and objective estimation criteria and a system to determine the repair cost of defects based on an analysis of relevant factors. The research findings show that the historical cost system is applied first, and then a standard of estimation is used to estimate the cost for the items that are not included in the historical cost system. The criteria for the repair cost for each defect is as follows: the repair cost for defects arising from a regulation violation is determined by calculating the reconstruction cost of the parts in question after demolishing them; the repair cost for progressive defects is determined based on a contribution ratio proportional to the age of the building; the repair cost for repetitive defects is calculated by considering an alternative to maximize the intended function of the defective parts; and the repair cost for value depreciation defects is determined based on the ratio of the warranty period to the lapsed years. However, repair cost estimation for dual value depreciation defects should be studied in future research.

A Study on The Velocity Distribution in Closed Conduit by Using The Entropy Concept (엔트로피 개념을 이용한 관수로내의 유속분포에 관한 연구)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Ok, Chi Youl;Kim, Jin Won;Maeng, Seung Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.4B
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    • pp.357-363
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    • 2009
  • When yields the mean velocity of the closed conduit which is used generally, it is available to use Darcy Weisbach Friction Loss Head equation. But, it is inconvenient very because Friction Loss coefficient f is the function of Reynolds Number and Relative roughness (${\varepsilon}$/d). So, it is demanded more convenient equation to estimate. In order to prove the reliability and an accuracy of Chiu's velocity equation from the research which sees hereupon, proved agreement very well about measured velocity measurement data by using Laser velocimeter which is a non-insertion velocity measuring equipment from the closed conduit (Laser Doppler Velocimeter: LDV) and an insertion velocity measuring equipment and the Pitot tube which is a supersonic flow meter (Transit-Time Flowmeters). By proving theoretical linear-relation between maximum velocity and mean velocity in laboratory flume without increase and decrease of discharge, the equilibrium state of velocity in the closed conduit which reachs to equilibrium state corresponding to entropy parameter M value has a trend maintaining consistently this state. If entropy M value which is representing one section is determinated, mean velocity can be gotten only by measuring the velocity in the point appearing the maximum velocity. So, it has been proved to estimate simply discharge and it indicates that this method can be a theoretical way, which is the most important in the future, when designing, managing and operating the closed conduit.

Economic Assessment for Flood Control Infrastructure under Climate Change : A Case Study of Imjin River Basin (기후변화를 고려한 홍수방재시설물의 경제성분석 : 임진강 유역사례)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok;Oh, Seungik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2017
  • In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.