Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimations of flow rate and pollutant loading changes of the Yo-Cheon basin under AR5 climate change scenarios using SWA

SWAT을 이용한 AR5 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 섬진강 요천유역의 유량 및 오염부하량 변화 예측

  • Jang, Yujin (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Park, Jongtae (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Seo, Dongil (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University)
  • Received : 2018.01.03
  • Accepted : 2018.04.13
  • Published : 2018.06.15
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Two climate change scenarios, the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were applied in the Yocheon basin area using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate changes in flow rates and pollutant loadings in the future. Field stream flow rate data in Songdong station and water quality data in Yocheon-1 station between 2013~2015 were used for model calibration. While $R^2$ value of flow rate calibration was 0.85 and $R^2$ value of water qualities were in the 0.12~0.43 range. The total study period was divided into 4 sub periods as 2030s (2016~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The predicted results of flow rates and water quality concentrations were compared with results in calibrated periods, 2015s (2013~2015). In both RCP scenarios, flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) loadings were estimated to be in increasing trend while TN (Total Nitrogen) and TP (Total Phosphorus) loadings showed decreasing patterns. Also, flow rates and pollutant loadings showed larger differences between the maximum and the minimum values in RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5 scenarios indicating more severe effect of drought and flood, respectively. Dependent on simulation period and rainfall periods in a year, flow rate, TSS, TN and TP showed different trends in each scenario. This emphasizes importance of considerations on time and space when analyzing climate change impacts of each variable under various scenarios.

Keywords

References

  1. Ambrose, R.B. Jr., Wool, T.A., and Barnwell, T.O. (2009). Development of Water Quality Modeling in the United States, Environ. Eng. Res., 14(4), 200-210. https://doi.org/10.4491/eer.2009.14.4.200
  2. Brown, L.C. and Barnwell, T.O. Jr. (1987). The enhanced stream water quality models QUAL2E and QUAL2E-UNCAS documentation and user manual, EPA document, EPA/600/3-87/007, 1-204.
  3. Gassman, P.W., Reyes, M.R., Green, C.H. and Arnold, J.G. (1998). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions, Transaction of the ASABE, 50(4), 1211-1250. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23637
  4. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104.
  5. IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151.
  6. Jang, J.H., and Ahn, J.H., (2012). Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic and Water Quality Components in Nakdong River Basin, J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc., 45(11), 1121-1130. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.11.1121
  7. Jeonbuk Ilbo (2013). http://www.jjn.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=585338, (March 3, 2013).
  8. Jang, N.J., Kim, B.G., Cho, H.J., and Kwak, D.H., Jeonbuk Institute. (2016). Current State of Non-point Source Pollutants and Management Plan in Sum-jin River Basin, Jthink-2016-PR-03, 7-117.
  9. Kim, J.Y., Seo, D.I., and Lee, T.E. (2017). Effectiveness of Settling Treatment System to Reduce Urban Nonpoint Source Pollutant Load by First Flush, J. Korean Soc. Environ. Eng., 39(3), 140-148. https://doi.org/10.4491/KSEE.2017.39.3.140
  10. Kim, N.W., Shin, A.H. and Lee, J.W. (2009). Effect of Improved Runoff Module in SWAT on Water Quality Simulation, J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc., 42(4), 297-307. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.4.297
  11. Korea Meteorological Administration. (2018). http://www.climate.go.kr/home/snr_greeting/rcp.php (June 14, 2018).
  12. Korea Meteorological Administration. (2012). Korea Climate Change Prospect Report. 11-1360000-000861-01, 15-111.
  13. Lee, E.H. and Seo, D.I. (2011). Flow Calibration and Validation of Daechung Lake Watershed, Korea Using SWAT-CUP" J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc., 44(9), 711-720. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.9.711
  14. Lee, T.S. (2016). Assessment of Sediment and Total Phosphorus Loads using SWAT in Oenam watershed, Hwasun, Jeollanam-do, J. KARG, 22(1), 240-250.
  15. Luzio, M.D., Srinivasan, R., Arnold, J.G, and Neitsch. S.L., Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service Blackland Research Center, Texas. (2002). ArcView Interface for SWAT2000 User's Guide, TR-193, 1-340.
  16. Ministry of Environment. (2014). http://water.nier.go.kr/main/mainContent.do (January 2, 2018).
  17. Ministry of Environment. (2016). https://egis.me.go.kr/main.do (January 2, 2018).
  18. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. (2016). http://www.wamis.go.kr/ (January 2, 2018).
  19. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs. (2001). Water Vision 2020, 5-11.
  20. National Institute of Environmental Research. (2016). http://wems.nier.go.kr/population.do?method=main_pop&gubun=view&no=3, National Institute of Environmental Research. (2016). http://wems.nier.go.kr/population.do?method=main_pop&gubun=view&no=3 (January 2, 2018).
  21. Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R., and Williams, J.R., Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service Blackland Research Center, Texas. (2011). Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2009. TR-406, 1-565.
  22. Park, J.T., Jang, Y.J., and Seo, D. (2017). Water Quality Prediction of Inflow of the Yongdam Dam Basin and its Reservoir using SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 Models in Series to Climate Change Scenarios, J. Korean Water Resour. Assoc., 50(10), 703-714.
  23. Park, J.T., Jang, Y.J., and Seo, D. (2017). Water Quality Prediction of Inflow of the Yongdam Dam Basin and its Reservoir using SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 Models in series to Climate Change Scenarios, J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc., 50(10), 703-714. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.10.703
  24. Park, S. C., Roh, K. B., Jung. H. and Moon, B. S. (2010). Study on Water Quality prediction using Qual2k in Seonjin Basin, Master's Thesis, Dongshin University, Korea. 1-62.
  25. Seo, D., Kim, J.S. and Chang, E.M. (2007). Application of Medium Class Land Cover Maps to AVSWAT2000 for the Prediction of Inflow, CBOD, TN and TP for Yongdam Lake, Korea, Water Sci. Technol., 55(1-2), 513-518. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2007.011
  26. Seo, D., and Kim, J.Y. (2016). Reduction of Pollutant Concentrations in Urban Stormwater Runoff by Settling, J. Korean Soc. Environ. Eng., 38(4), 210-218. https://doi.org/10.4491/KSEE.2016.38.4.210
  27. USEPA CEAM(Center for Exposure Assessment Modeling). (2018). Surface Water Models to Assess Exosures, https://www.epa.gov/exposure-assessment-models/surface-water-models (January 2, 2018).
  28. Walters, D.N., Best, M.J., Bushell, A.C., Copsey, D., Edwards, J.M., Falloon, P.D., Harris, C.M., Lock, A.P., Manners, J.C., Morcrette, C.J., Roberts, M.J., Stratton, R.A., Webster, S., Wilkinson, J.M., Willett, M.R., Boutle, I.A., Earnshaw, P.D., Hill, P.G., MacLachlan, C., Martin, G.M., Moufouma-Okia, W., Palmer, M.D., Petch, J.C., Rooney, G.G., Scaife, A.A. and Williams, K.D. (2011). The Met office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 Configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1213-1271. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-4-1213-2011
  29. Williams, J.R., (1969). Flood routing with variable travel time or variable storage coefficients, Trans. ASAE, 12(1), 100-103. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.38772
  30. Yi, H.S., Kim, D.S., Hwan, M.H., and An, K.G. (2016). Assessment of Runoff and Water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam Dam Watershed, J. Korean Soc. Water Environ., 32(2), 173-182. https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2016.32.2.173

Cited by

  1. 기후변화에 따른 도당천 유역 미래 물순환율 평가 vol.62, pp.4, 2018, https://doi.org/10.5389/ksae.2020.62.4.099