• Title/Summary/Keyword: error estimates

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The Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Economic Growth: Centering The U. S. (재정분권화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구: 미국의 경우를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Won Ick
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2012
  • Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

Interference Cancellation Scheme of End-to-End Method in Power Line Communication System for Smart Grid (스마트 그리드 시스템을 위한 전력선 통신 시스템의 종단 간 방식의 간섭 제거 기법)

  • Seo, Sung-Il
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.41-45
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose the interference cancellation scheme of end-to-end method algorithm for power line communication (PLC) systems in smart grid. The proposed scheme estimates the channel noise information of receiver by applying a deep learning model at the receiver. Then, the estimated channel noise is updated in database. In the modulator, the channel noise which reduces the power line communication performance is effectively removed through interference cancellation technique. As an impulsive noise model, Middleton Class A interference model was employed. The performance is evaluated in terms of bit error rate (BER). From the simulation results, it is confirmed that the proposed scheme has better BER performance compared to the theoretical model based on additive white Gaussian noise. As a result, the proposed interference cancellation with deep learning improves the signal quality of PLC systems by effectively removing the channel noise. The results of the paper can be applied to PLC for smart grid and general communication systems.

Direct Position Determination Method with Improved Accuracy for Estimating Static Source Position (고정 신호원의 위치 추정을 위한 직접 위치 결정 기법의 정확도 향상 방법)

  • Lim, Jaehyuk;Lee, Seungjin;Song, Jong-In;Chung, Wonzoo;Lee, Jaehoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.29 no.11
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    • pp.884-890
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, an improved method of estimating static source location is proposed based on the direct position determination(DPD) method, which estimates a source position directly using received signals. When the source position is estimated using the conventional DPD method, the estimation accuracy and error depend on a pair of receivers: a reference receiver and one of the multiple moving receivers. Based on this, the weighting values of the estimating source location were obtained using the covariance matrix for the pair of receivers($S_1$, $S_{2i}$) and applied to the DPD algorithm. Finally, the source position was estimated using the proposed DPD algorithm, and it was verified that the estimation accuracy improved, compared to the conventional DPD algorithm.

Verification of Mid-/Long-term Forecasted Soil Moisture Dynamics Using TIGGE/S2S (TIGGE/S2S 기반 중장기 토양수분 예측 및 검증)

  • Shin, Yonghee;Jung, Imgook;Lee, Hyunju;Shin, Yongchul
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • Developing reliable soil moisture prediction techniques at agricultural regions is a pivotal issue for sustaining stable crop productions. In this study, a physically-based SWAP(Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant) model was suggested to estimate soil moisture dynamics at the study sites. ROSETTA was also integrated to derive the soil hydraulic properties(${\alpha}$, n, ${\Theta}_r$, ${\Theta}_s$, $K_s$) as the input variables to SWAP based on the soil information(Sand, Silt and Clay-SSC, %). In order to predict the soil moisture dynamics in future, the mid-term TIGGIE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) and long-term S2S(Subseasonal to Seasonal) weather forecasts were used, respectively. Our proposed approach was tested at the six study sites of RDA(Rural Development Administration). The estimated soil moisture values based on the SWAP model matched the measured data with the statistics of Root Mean Square Error(RMSE: 0.034~0.069) and Temporal Correlation Coefficient(TCC: 0.735~0.869) for validation. When we predicted the mid-/long-term soil moisture values using the TIGGE(0~15 days)/S2S(16~46 days) weather forecasts, the soil moisture estimates showed less variations during the TIGGE period while uncertainties were increased for the S2S period. Although uncertainties were relatively increased based on the increased leading time of S2S compared to those of TIGGE, these results supported the potential use of TIGGE/S2S forecasts in evaluating agricultural drought. Our proposed approach can be useful for efficient water resources management plans in hydrology, agriculture, etc.

Vision-based Food Shape Recognition and Its Positioning for Automated Production of Custom Cakes (주문형 케이크 제작 자동화를 위한 영상 기반 식품 모양 인식 및 측위)

  • Oh, Jang-Sub;Lee, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.24 no.10
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    • pp.1280-1287
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    • 2020
  • This paper proposes a vision-based food recognition method for automated production of custom cakes. A small camera module mounted on a food art printer recognizes objects' shape and estimates their center points through image processing. Through the perspective transformation, the top-view image is obtained from the original image taken at an oblique position. The line and circular hough transformations are applied to recognize square and circular shapes respectively. In addition, the center of gravity of each figure are accurately detected in units of pixels. The test results show that the shape recognition rate is more than 98.75% under 180 ~ 250 lux of light and the positioning error rate is less than 0.87% under 50 ~ 120 lux. These values sufficiently meet the needs of the corresponding market. In addition, the processing delay is also less than 0.5 seconds per frame, so the proposed algorithm is suitable for commercial purpose.

The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence from Korean Panel Data (주택가격과 기초경제여건의 장기 관계: 우리나라의 패널 자료를 이용하여)

  • Sim, Sunghoon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.3-27
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    • 2012
  • This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.

Novel nomogram-based integrated gonadotropin therapy individualization in in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection: A modeling approach

  • Ebid, Abdel Hameed IM;Motaleb, Sara M Abdel;Mostafa, Mahmoud I;Soliman, Mahmoud MA
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2021
  • Objective: This study aimed to characterize a validated model for predicting oocyte retrieval in controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) and to construct model-based nomograms for assistance in clinical decision-making regarding the gonadotropin protocol and dose. Methods: This observational, retrospective, cohort study included 636 women with primary unexplained infertility and a normal menstrual cycle who were attempting assisted reproductive therapy for the first time. The enrolled women were split into an index group (n=497) for model building and a validation group (n=139). The primary outcome was absolute oocyte count. The dose-response relationship was tested using modified Poisson, negative binomial, hybrid Poisson-Emax, and linear models. The validation group was similarly analyzed, and its results were compared to that of the index group. Results: The Poisson model with the log-link function demonstrated superior predictive performance and precision (Akaike information criterion, 2,704; λ=8.27; relative standard error (λ)=2.02%). The covariate analysis included women's age (p<0.001), antral follicle count (p<0.001), basal follicle-stimulating hormone level (p<0.001), gonadotropin dose (p=0.042), and protocol type (p=0.002 and p<0.001 for short and antagonist protocols, respectively). The estimates from 500 bootstrap samples were close to those of the original model. The validation group showed model assessment metrics comparable to the index model. Based on the fitted model, a static nomogram was built to improve visualization. In addition, a dynamic electronic tool was created for convenience of use. Conclusion: Based on our validated model, nomograms were constructed to help clinicians individualize the stimulation protocol and gonadotropin doses in COS cycles.

Long-gap Filling Method for the Coastal Monitoring Data (해양모니터링 자료의 장기결측 보충 기법)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Lee, Gi-Seop;Lee, Uk-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.333-344
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    • 2021
  • Technique for the long-gap filling that occur frequently in ocean monitoring data is developed. The method estimates the unknown values of the long-gap by the summation of the estimated trend and selected residual components of the given missing intervals. The method was used to impute the data of the long-term missing interval of about 1 month, such as temperature and water temperature of the Ulleungdo ocean buoy data. The imputed data showed differences depending on the monitoring parameters, but it was found that the variation pattern was appropriately reproduced. Although this method causes bias and variance errors due to trend and residual components estimation, it was found that the bias error of statistical measure estimation due to long-term missing is greatly reduced. The mean, and the 90% confidence intervals of the gap-filling model's RMS errors are 0.93 and 0.35~1.95, respectively.

ESTIMATION OF NITROGEN-TO-IRON ABUNDANCE RATIOS FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

  • Kim, Changmin;Lee, Young Sun;Beers, Timothy C.;Masseron, Thomas
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2022
  • We present a method to determine nitrogen abundance ratios with respect to iron ([N/Fe]) from molecular CN-band features observed in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra obtained by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST). Various tests are carried out to check the systematic and random errors of our technique, and the impact of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of stellar spectra on the determined [N/Fe]. We find that the uncertainty of our derived [N/Fe] is less than 0.3 dex for S/N ratios larger than 10 in the ranges Teff = [4000, 6000] K, log g = [0.0, 3.5], [Fe/H] = [-3.0, 0.0], [C/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], and [N/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], the parameter space that we are interested in to identify N-enhanced stars in the Galactic halo. A star-by-star comparison with a sample of stars with [N/Fe] estimates available from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) also suggests a similar level of uncertainty in our measured [N/Fe], after removing its systematic error. Based on these results, we conclude that our method is able to reproduce [N/Fe] from low-resolution spectroscopic data, with an uncertainty sufficiently small to discover N-rich stars that presumably originated from disrupted Galactic globular clusters.

A Comparison Study on the Semi-empirical Analysis Approach for the Flight Characteristics of a Light Airplane (경비행기의 비행특성 분석 및 준경험적 분석 방법 비교)

  • Lee, Jung-hoon
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • In this study, for development of the MDO (Multi Disciplinary Optimization) framework, the flight dynamic characteristic parameters of the ChangGong-91, a light aircraft, were extracted by an analytical method based on various semi-empirical methods, and the flight test method was compared and evaluated. The semi-empirical analysis methods for comparative subjects were the Perkins method, McCormick method, and Smetana method. The major stability/control derivatives and dynamic factors were calculated, using each method. As the comparison criteria, the flight test derivative estimates and dynamic factors were processed, using the output error method. Additionally, the flight characteristics of the light aircraft were analyzed and evaluated according to the provisions of the Korean Airworthiness Standard (KAS) of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and MIL-F-8785C for the U.S. military.