• Title/Summary/Keyword: error distribution

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Prediction of Chlorine Concentration in a Pilot-Scaled Plant Distribution System (Pilot 규모의 모의 관망에서의 염소 농도 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun Jun;Kim, Sang Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.861-869
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    • 2012
  • The chlorine's residual concentration prevents the regrowth of microorganism in water transport along the pipeline system. Precise prediction of chlorine concentration is important in determining disinfectant injection for the water distribution system. In this study, a pilot scale water distribution system was designed and fabricated to measure the temporal variation of chlorine concentration for three flow conditions (V = 0.88, 1.33, 1.95 m/s). Various kinetic models were applied to identify the relationship between hydraulic condition and chlorine decay. Genetic Algorithm (GA) was integrated into five kinetic models and time series of chlorine were used to calibrate parameters. Model fitness was compared by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between measurement and prediction. Limited first order model and Parallel first order showed good fitness for prediction of chlorine concentration.

Improvement and Application Effect in Fault Restoration Program based on Distribution Automation System of KEPCO (한전의 배전자동화 기반 배전선로 고장처리 프로그램 개선 및 적용 효과)

  • Park, So-Young;Shin, Chang-Hoon;Ha, Bok-Nam;Lee, Seong-Woo;Park, Min-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.267-271
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents the improvement and application effect in fault restoration program based on distribution automation system(DAS) of KEPCO. When a fault occurs, fault restoration program can detect fault section based on FI information of DAS, and calculate the best restoration solution by comparing the load capacity of outage area and the spare load capacity of connected distribution lines, and propose switch operating procedure for fault section isolation and outage restoration. Fault restoration program was applied to real field and it was verified that this program is applicable to diverse field cases. By using this fault restoration program to the field human error can be reduced and fault procedure can be more reliable, accurate, and fast.

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Process Design of Pulley for Automobile Airconditoner in Cold Forging (자동차 냉방기용 내부 풀리의 냉간 단조 공정 설계)

  • 김동진;정덕진;김병민;최재찬
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 1997
  • The inner pulley is an automobile component used as air conditioner clutch assembly. In cold forging of inner pulley, the design requirements are to keep the same height of the inner rib and outer one, and to make uniform the hardness distribution in the forged product. In industry, the design of forging processes is performed based on experience-oriented technology, that is, designers experience and expensive trial and error. Using the rigid-plastic finite element simulations. we design the optimal process conditions, which has a preforming operation. Also the final product configuration of forging has to be designed again in view of metal flow involved in the operation, derived from the finite element simulations. The forged pulley is investigated by checking the hardness distribution and it is noted that distribution has improved to be even and high enough for industrial application.

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Relative Power Density Distribution Calculations of the Kori Unit 1 Pressurized Water Reactor with Full-Scope Explicit Modeling of Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Kim, Jong-Oh;Kim, Jong-Kyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.375-384
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    • 1997
  • Relative power density distributions of the Kori Unit 1 pressurized water reactor are calculated by Monte Carlo modeling with the MCNP code. The Kori Unit 1 core is modeled on a three-dimensional representation of the one-eighth of the reactor in-vessel component with reflective boundaries at 0 and 45 degrees. The axial core model is based on half core symmetry and is divided into four axial segments. Fission reaction density in each rod is calculated by following 100 cycles with 5,000 test neutrons in each cycle after starling with a localized neutron source and ten noncontributing settle cycles. Relative assembly power distributions are calculated from fission reaction densities of rods in assembly. After 100 cycle calculations, the system converges to a k value of 1.00039 $\geq$ 0.00084. Relative assembly power distribution is nearly the same with that of the Kori Unit 1 FSAR. Applicability of the full-scope Monte Carlo simulation in the power distribution calculation is examined by the relative root moan square error of 2.159%.

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Comparative Analysis of regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall by Log-Pearson Type III and GEV Distribution (Log-Pearson Type III 및 GEV분포모형에 의한 강우의 지점 및 지역빈도 비교분석)

  • Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Lee, Soon-Hyuk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.443-446
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to draw design rainfall for the regional design rainfall derived by the optimal distribution and method of frequency analysis. The design rainfalls were calculated by the regional and at-site analysis for Log-Pearson type III and GEV distributions and were compared with Relative efficiency(RE) which is ratio of Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE) by the regional and at-site analysis for Log-Pearson type III and GEV distributions. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis for GEV distribution and design rainfall maps were drawn by GIS techniques.

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Tank Model using Kalman Filter for Sediment Yield (유사량산정을 위한 Kalman filter를 이용한 탱크모델)

  • Lee, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.1319-1324
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    • 2007
  • A tank model in conjunction with Kalman filter is developed for prediction of sediment yield from an upland watershed in Northwestern Mississippi. The state vector of the system model represents the parameters of the tank model. The initial values of the state vector were estimated by trial and error. The sediment yield of each tank is computed by multiplying the total sediment yield by the sediment yield coefficient. The sediment concentration of the first tank is computed from its storage and the sediment concentration distribution(SCD); the sediment concentration of the next lower tank is obtained by its storage and the sediment infiltration of the upper tank; and so on. The sediment yield computed by the tank model using Kalman filter was in good agreement with the observed sediment yield and was more accurate than the sediment yield computed by the tank model.

Estimation for generalized half logistic distribution based on records

  • Seo, Jung-In;Lee, Hwa-Jung;Kan, Suk-Bok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1249-1257
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we derive maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) and approximate MLEs (AMLEs) of the unknown parameters in a generalized half logistic distribution when the data are upper record values. As an illustration, we examine the validity of our estimation using real data and simulated data. Finally, we compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error (MSE) through a Monte Carlo simulation for various record values of size.

Reliability Estimation in an Exponentiated Logistic Distribution under Multiply Type-II Censoring

  • Han, Jun-Tae;Kang, Suk-Bok;Cho, Young-Seuk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1081-1091
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we derive the approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the scale parameter and location parameter in an exponentiated logistic distribution based on multiply Type-II censored samples. We compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error for various censored samples. We also propose and compare the estimators of the reliability function by using the proposed estimators of the parameters.

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Estimation of entropy of the inverse weibull distribution under generalized progressive hybrid censored data

  • Lee, Kyeongjun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.659-668
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    • 2017
  • The inverse Weibull distribution (IWD) can be readily applied to a wide range of situations including applications in medicines, reliability and ecology. It is generally known that the lifetimes of test items may not be recorded exactly. In this paper, therefore, we consider the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayes estimation of the entropy of a IWD under generalized progressive hybrid censoring (GPHC) scheme. It is observed that the MLE of the entropy cannot be obtained in closed form, so we have to solve two non-linear equations simultaneously. Further, the Bayes estimators for the entropy of IWD based on squared error loss function (SELF), precautionary loss function (PLF), and linex loss function (LLF) are derived. Since the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, we derive the Bayes estimates by revoking the Tierney and Kadane approximate method. We carried out Monte Carlo simulations to compare the classical and Bayes estimators. In addition, two real data sets based on GPHC scheme have been also analysed for illustrative purposes.

Statistical Analysis of Degradation Data under a Random Coefficient Rate Model (확률계수 열화율 모형하에서 열화자료의 통계적 분석)

  • Seo, Sun-Keun;Lee, Su-Jin;Cho, You-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2006
  • For highly reliable products, it is difficult to assess the lifetime of the products with traditional life tests. Accordingly, a recent approach is to observe the performance degradation of product during the test rather than regular failure time. This study compares performances of three methods(i.e. the approximation, analytical and numerical methods) to estimate the parameters and quantiles of the lifetime when the time-to-failure distribution follows Weibull and lognormal distributions under a random coefficient degradation rate model. Numerical experiments are also conducted to investigate the effects of model error such as measurements in a random coefficient model.