• Title/Summary/Keyword: error characteristics

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A Study on the Predictability of the Number of Days of Heat and Cold Damages by Growth Stages of Rice Using PNU CGCM-WRF Chain in South Korea (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 남한지역 벼의 생육단계별 고온해 및 저온해 발생일수에 대한 예측성 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Hyun;Choi, Myeong-Ju;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Hur, Jina;Jo, Sera;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.577-592
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    • 2021
  • This study evaluates the predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages by growth stages of rice in South Korea using the hindcast data (1986~2020) produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (PNU CGCM-WRF) model chain. The predictability is accessed in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Standardized Deviations (NSD), Hit Rate (HR) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). For the purpose, the model predictability to produce the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are the variables used to define heat and cold damages for rice, are evaluated first. The result shows that most of the predictions starting the initial conditions from January to May (01RUN to 05RUN) have reasonable predictability, although it varies to some extent depending on the month at which integration starts. In particular, the ensemble average of 01RUN to 05RUN with equal weighting (ENS) has more reasonable predictability (RMSE is in the range of 1.2~2.6℃ and NSD is about 1.0) than individual RUNs. Accordingly, the regional patterns and characteristics of the predicted damages for rice due to excessive high- and low-temperatures are well captured by the model chain when compared with observation, particularly in regions where the damages occur frequently, in spite that hindcasted data somewhat overestimate the damages in terms of number of occurrence days. In ENS, the HR and HSS for heat (cold) damages in rice is in the ranges of 0.44~0.84 and 0.05~0.13 (0.58~0.81 and -0.01~0.10) by growth stage. Overall, it is concluded that the PNU CGCM-WRF chain of 01RUN~05RUN and ENS has reasonable capability to predict the heat and cold damages for rice in South Korea.

Development of seawater inflow equations considering density difference between seawater and freshwater at the Nakdong River estuary (해담수 밀도차를 고려한 낙동강하굿둑 해수유입량 산정식 개발)

  • Jeong, Seokil;Lee, Sanguk;Hur, Young Teck;Kim, Youngsung;Kim, Hwa Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2022
  • The restoration of the Nakdong River estuary is one of the most important projects of the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea. A real-scale experiment of gate operation was executed from 2019 to 2020, and a pilot operation was performed in 2021. The gate of Nakdong River Estuary Barrier (NEB) is supposed to be continuously opened based on the experiment results. Many critical decisions should be made immediately during the experiment based on the real-time measured data and numerical analysis considering the seawater inflows. The decision-making sequence was made systematically with the accurate estimation of seawater inflow. The estimation of seawater inflow is the main research objective and the equations of seawater inflow were developed, reflecting the structural characteristics of NEB. The inflow equations were developed in two forms, overflow and underflow. ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) was used to measure seawater inflow, check the accuracy of the developed equations, and derive the flow coefficient. The comparison error of the developed equations was about 3% compared to the measured data.

Burn-back Analysis for Propellant Grains with Embedded Metal Wires (금속선이 삽입된 추진제 그레인의 Burn-back 해석)

  • Lee, Hyunseob;Oh, Jongyun;Yang, Heesung;Lee, Sunyoung;Khil, Taeock
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.12-19
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    • 2022
  • Propellant grains with embedded metal wires have been used for enhancement of burning rate while maintaining high loading density. For the performance design of a solid rocket motor using propellant grain with embedded metal wires, burn-back analysis is required according to number, location, arrangement angle of metal wires, and augmentation ratio of the propellant burning rate near a wire region. In this study, a numerical method to quickly calculate a burning surface area was developed in response to the design change of the propellant grain with embedded metal wires. The burning surface area derived from the developed method was compared with the results of a CAD program. Error rate decreased as the radial size of the grid decreased. Analysis for characteristics of burning surface area was performed according to the number and location of metal wires, the initial and final phases were shortened and the steady-state phase was increased when the number of metal wires increased. When arranging the metal wires at different radii, the burning surface area rapidly increased in the initial phase and sharply decreased in the final phase compared to the case where the metal wires were disposed in the same radius.

Performance Evaluation of Multi-Friction Dampers for Seismic Retrofitting of Structures (구조물 내진보강을 위한 다중 마찰댐퍼의 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Sung-Bae;Kwon, Hyung-O;Lee, Jong-Suk
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.54-63
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    • 2022
  • This paper is a study on the friction damper, which is one of the seismic reinforcement devices for structures. This study developed a damper by replacing the internal friction material with ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), a type of composite material. In addition, this study applied a multi-friction method in which the internal structure where frictional force is generated is laminated in several layers. To verify the performance of the developed multi-friction damper, this study performed a characteristic analysis test for the basic physical properties, wear characteristics, and disc springs of the material. As a result of the wear test, the mass reduction rate of UHMWPE was 0.003%, which showed the best performance among the friction materials based on composite materials. Regarding the disc spring, this study secured the design basic data from the finite element analysis and experimental test results. Moreover, to confirm the quality stability of the developed multi-friction damper, this study performed an seismic load test on the damping device and the friction force change according to the torque value. The quality performance test result showed a linear frictional force change according to the torque value adjustment. As a result of the seismic load test, the allowable error of the friction damper was less than 15%, which is the standard required by the design standards, so it satisfies the requirements for seismic reinforcement devices.

The Analysis of Change Detection in Building Area Using CycleGAN-based Image Simulation (CycleGAN 기반 영상 모의를 적용한 건물지역 변화탐지 분석)

  • Jo, Su Min;Won, Taeyeon;Eo, Yang Dam;Lee, Seoungwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.359-364
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    • 2022
  • The change detection in remote sensing results in errors due to the camera's optical factors, seasonal factors, and land cover characteristics. The inclination of the building in the image was simulated according to the camera angle using the Cycle Generative Adversarial Network method, and the simulated image was used to contribute to the improvement of change detection accuracy. Based on CycleGAN, the inclination of the building was similarly simulated to the building in the other image based on the image of one of the two periods, and the error of the original image and the inclination of the building was compared and analyzed. The experimental data were taken at different times at different angles, and Kompsat-3A high-resolution satellite images including urban areas with dense buildings were used. As a result of the experiment, the number of incorrect detection pixels per building in the two images for the building area in the image was shown to be reduced by approximately 7 times from 12,632 in the original image and 1,730 in the CycleGAN-based simulation image. Therefore, it was confirmed that the proposed method can reduce detection errors due to the inclination of the building.

Estimation of Spatial Distribution Using the Gaussian Mixture Model with Multivariate Geoscience Data (다변량 지구과학 데이터와 가우시안 혼합 모델을 이용한 공간 분포 추정)

  • Kim, Ho-Rim;Yu, Soonyoung;Yun, Seong-Taek;Kim, Kyoung-Ho;Lee, Goon-Taek;Lee, Jeong-Ho;Heo, Chul-Ho;Ryu, Dong-Woo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.353-366
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    • 2022
  • Spatial estimation of geoscience data (geo-data) is challenging due to spatial heterogeneity, data scarcity, and high dimensionality. A novel spatial estimation method is needed to consider the characteristics of geo-data. In this study, we proposed the application of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) among machine learning algorithms with multivariate data for robust spatial predictions. The performance of the proposed approach was tested through soil chemical concentration data from a former smelting area. The concentrations of As and Pb determined by ex-situ ICP-AES were the primary variables to be interpolated, while the other metal concentrations by ICP-AES and all data determined by in-situ portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) were used as auxiliary variables in GMM and ordinary cokriging (OCK). Among the multidimensional auxiliary variables, important variables were selected using a variable selection method based on the random forest. The results of GMM with important multivariate auxiliary data decreased the root mean-squared error (RMSE) down to 0.11 for As and 0.33 for Pb and increased the correlations (r) up to 0.31 for As and 0.46 for Pb compared to those from ordinary kriging and OCK using univariate or bivariate data. The use of GMM improved the performance of spatial interpretation of anthropogenic metals in soil. The multivariate spatial approach can be applied to understand complex and heterogeneous geological and geochemical features.

A Data-driven Classifier for Motion Detection of Soldiers on the Battlefield using Recurrent Architectures and Hyperparameter Optimization (순환 아키텍쳐 및 하이퍼파라미터 최적화를 이용한 데이터 기반 군사 동작 판별 알고리즘)

  • Joonho Kim;Geonju Chae;Jaemin Park;Kyeong-Won Park
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2023
  • The technology that recognizes a soldier's motion and movement status has recently attracted large attention as a combination of wearable technology and artificial intelligence, which is expected to upend the paradigm of troop management. The accuracy of state determination should be maintained at a high-end level to make sure of the expected vital functions both in a training situation; an evaluation and solution provision for each individual's motion, and in a combat situation; overall enhancement in managing troops. However, when input data is given as a timer series or sequence, existing feedforward networks would show overt limitations in maximizing classification performance. Since human behavior data (3-axis accelerations and 3-axis angular velocities) handled for military motion recognition requires the process of analyzing its time-dependent characteristics, this study proposes a high-performance data-driven classifier which utilizes the long-short term memory to identify the order dependence of acquired data, learning to classify eight representative military operations (Sitting, Standing, Walking, Running, Ascending, Descending, Low Crawl, and High Crawl). Since the accuracy is highly dependent on a network's learning conditions and variables, manual adjustment may neither be cost-effective nor guarantee optimal results during learning. Therefore, in this study, we optimized hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization for maximized generalization performance. As a result, the final architecture could reduce the error rate by 62.56% compared to the existing network with a similar number of learnable parameters, with the final accuracy of 98.39% for various military operations.

A Study on The Effects of Long-Term Tidal Constituents on Surge Forecasting Along The Coasts of Korean Peninsula (한국 연안의 장주기 조석성분이 총 수위 예측에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jiha, Kim;Pil-Hun, Chang;Hyun-Suk, Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.222-232
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    • 2022
  • In this study we investigated the characteristics of long-term tidal constituents based on 30 tidal gauge data along the coasts of Korea and its the effects on total water level (TWL) forecasts. The results show that the solar annual (Sa) and semiannual (Ssa) tides were dominant among long-term tidal constituents, and they are relatively large in western coast of Korea peninsula. To investigate the effect of long-term tidal constituents on TWL forecasts, we produced predicted tides in 2021 with and without long-term tidal constituents. The TWL forecasts with and without long-term tidal constituents are then calculated by adding surge forecasts into predicted tides. Comparing with the TWL without long-term tidal constituents, the results with long-term tidal constituents reveals small bias in summer and relatively large negative bias in winter. It is concluded that the large error found in winter generally caused by double-counting of meteorological factors in predicted tides and surge forecasts. The predicted surge for 2021 based on the harmonic analysis shows seasonality, and it reduces the large negative bias shown in winter when it subtracted from the TWL forecasts with long-term tidal constituents.

Soil moisture estimation using the water cloud model and Sentinel-1 & -2 satellite image-based vegetation indices (Sentinel-1 & -2 위성영상 기반 식생지수와 Water Cloud Model을 활용한 토양수분 산정)

  • Chung, Jeehun;Lee, Yonggwan;Kim, Jinuk;Jang, Wonjin;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.211-224
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a soil moisture estimation was performed using the Water Cloud Model (WCM), a backscatter model that considers vegetation based on SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI (Multi-Spectral Instrument) images of a 40 × 50 km2 area including the Yongdam Dam watershed of the Geum River were collected for this study. As vegetation descriptor of WCM, Sentinel-1 based vegetation index RVI (Radar Vegetation Index), depolarization ratio (DR), and Sentinel-2 based NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were used, respectively. Forward modeling of WCM was performed by 3 groups, which were divided by the characteristics between backscattering coefficient and soil moisture. The clearer the linear relationship between soil moisture and the backscattering coefficient, the higher the simulation performance. To estimate the soil moisture, the simulated backscattering coefficient was inverted. The simulation performance was proportional to the forward modeling result. The WCM simulation error showed an increasing pattern from about -12dB based on the observed backscattering coefficient.

Deep Learning based Estimation of Depth to Bearing Layer from In-situ Data (딥러닝 기반 국내 지반의 지지층 깊이 예측)

  • Jang, Young-Eun;Jung, Jaeho;Han, Jin-Tae;Yu, Yonggyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2022
  • The N-value from the Standard Penetration Test (SPT), which is one of the representative in-situ test, is an important index that provides basic geological information and the depth of the bearing layer for the design of geotechnical structures. In the aspect of time and cost-effectiveness, there is a need to carry out a representative sampling test. However, the various variability and uncertainty are existing in the soil layer, so it is difficult to grasp the characteristics of the entire field from the limited test results. Thus the spatial interpolation techniques such as Kriging and IDW (inverse distance weighted) have been used for predicting unknown point from existing data. Recently, in order to increase the accuracy of interpolation results, studies that combine the geotechnics and deep learning method have been conducted. In this study, based on the SPT results of about 22,000 holes of ground survey, a comparative study was conducted to predict the depth of the bearing layer using deep learning methods and IDW. The average error among the prediction results of the bearing layer of each analysis model was 3.01 m for IDW, 3.22 m and 2.46 m for fully connected network and PointNet, respectively. The standard deviation was 3.99 for IDW, 3.95 and 3.54 for fully connected network and PointNet. As a result, the point net deep learing algorithm showed improved results compared to IDW and other deep learning method.