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A Study on the Predictability of the Number of Days of Heat and Cold Damages by Growth Stages of Rice Using PNU CGCM-WRF Chain in South Korea

PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 남한지역 벼의 생육단계별 고온해 및 저온해 발생일수에 대한 예측성 연구

  • Kim, Young-Hyun (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Choi, Myeong-Ju (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Shim, Kyo-Moon (National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, RDA) ;
  • Hur, Jina (National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, RDA) ;
  • Jo, Sera (National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, RDA) ;
  • Ahn, Joong-Bae (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
  • Received : 2021.08.22
  • Accepted : 2021.10.28
  • Published : 2021.12.31
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Abstract

This study evaluates the predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages by growth stages of rice in South Korea using the hindcast data (1986~2020) produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model-Weather Research and Forecasting (PNU CGCM-WRF) model chain. The predictability is accessed in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Standardized Deviations (NSD), Hit Rate (HR) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). For the purpose, the model predictability to produce the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are the variables used to define heat and cold damages for rice, are evaluated first. The result shows that most of the predictions starting the initial conditions from January to May (01RUN to 05RUN) have reasonable predictability, although it varies to some extent depending on the month at which integration starts. In particular, the ensemble average of 01RUN to 05RUN with equal weighting (ENS) has more reasonable predictability (RMSE is in the range of 1.2~2.6℃ and NSD is about 1.0) than individual RUNs. Accordingly, the regional patterns and characteristics of the predicted damages for rice due to excessive high- and low-temperatures are well captured by the model chain when compared with observation, particularly in regions where the damages occur frequently, in spite that hindcasted data somewhat overestimate the damages in terms of number of occurrence days. In ENS, the HR and HSS for heat (cold) damages in rice is in the ranges of 0.44~0.84 and 0.05~0.13 (0.58~0.81 and -0.01~0.10) by growth stage. Overall, it is concluded that the PNU CGCM-WRF chain of 01RUN~05RUN and ENS has reasonable capability to predict the heat and cold damages for rice in South Korea.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 성과물은 농촌진흥청 연구사업(세부과제번호: PJ01489102)의 지원에 의해 이루어진 것임.

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