• Title/Summary/Keyword: error characteristics

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Shipboard Fire Evacuation Route Prediction Algorithm Development (선박 화재시 승선자 피난동선예측을 위한 알고리즘 개발 기초연구)

  • Hwang, Kwang-Il;Cho, So-Hyung;Ko, Hoo-Sang;Cho, Ik-Soon;Yun, Gwi-Ho;Kim, Byeol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.519-526
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    • 2018
  • In this study, an algorithm to predict evacuation routes in support of shipboard lifesaving activities is presented. As the first step of algorithm development, the feasibility and necessity of an evacuation route prediction algorithm are shown numerically. The proposed algorithm can be explained in brief as follows. This system continuously obtains and analyzes passenger movement data from the ship's monitoring system during non-disaster conditions. In case of a disaster, evacuation route prediction information is derived using the previously acquired data and a prediction tool, with the results provided to rescuers to minimize casualties. In this study, evacuation-related data obtained through fire evacuation trials was filtered and analyzed using a statistical method. In a simulation using the conventional evacuation prediction tool, it was found that reliable prediction results were obtained only in the SN1 trial because of the conceptual and structural nature of the tool itself. In order to verify the validity of the algorithm proposed in this study, an industrial engineering tool was adapted for evacuation characteristics prediction. When the proposed algorithm was implemented, the predicted values for average evacuation time and route were very similar to the measured values with error ranges of 0.6-6.9 % and 0.6-3.6 %, respectively. In the future, development of a high-performance evacuation route prediction algorithm is planned based on shipboard data monitoring and analysis.

Characterizing Magnetic Properties of TA (Tofua Arc) 22 Seamount (23° 34′ S) in the Lau Basin, Southwestern Pacific (남서태평양 라우분지 TA 22 해저산(23° 34′ S)에서의 지자기 특성 연구)

  • Choi, Soon Young;Kim, Chang Hwan;Park, Chan Hong;Kim, Hyung Rae
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.67-81
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    • 2018
  • We acquired the magnetic and bathymetry data around the TA (Tofua Arc) 22 seamount in the Lau Basin for finding submarine hydrothermal deposits. From the data, we estimated the magnetic characteristics in the study area. The bathymetry shows that TA 22 seamount consists of the western and eastern summits. Each summit exhibits a caldera. The western caldera is smaller, but deeper than the eastern caldera. The slope gradients of the TA 22 are steeper around ~1000 m depth range and relatively gentle at the summit areas with the small difference of two calderas. The magnetic properties of TA 22 seamount present high anomalies at the summit and the vicinity of the caldera. Low magnetization zones appear over the outer flanks and center of the calderas. These magnetic patterns are similar to the previous studies which had represented high anomalies and low magnetization zones inside of the summit area or on the flank of the outside of the summit area. The results of the 2D magnetic forward modeling with seismic profiles show about 20 nT of RMSEs (root mean square error) between the modeled and observed values. The low RMSEs proposes a good correlation between the modeled 2D structure and the geophysical observation in this study area. Based on the modeling and magnetization distribution, hydrothermal deposits are predicted to be located at the inner area of the calderas or at small mounds around caldera rims.

Compact Design and Fabrication of 'Improved QS-MMI' Demultiplexer (Improved QS-MMI' 1.31/1.55μm 파장분리기의 최적화 설계 및 제작)

  • Kim, Nam-Kook;Kim, Jang-Kyum;Choi, Chul-Hyun;O, Beom-Hoan;Lee, Seung-Gol;Park, Se-Gun;Lee, El-Hang
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.248-253
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    • 2005
  • We designed and fabricated a compact multi-mode interference (MMI) wavelength demultiplexer using the concept of 'Improved Quasi-State' modes. The output power and extinction ratio were improved by utilizing modal phase error which is specially occurred in low-index contrast. For a designed demultiplexer, the mode propagation analysis with effective index approximation shows significant improvement of extinction ratio to -25 dB for both $1.31{\mu}m\;and\;1.51{\mu}m$ wavelength region and the split-length was reduced about 1/5 of other MMI devices. The fabricated device shows successful characteristics for both 1.31 and $1.55{\mu}m$ wavelengths. These results demonstrate the potential of low-index materials system and the embossing process for photonic integrated circuits.

A Development of Real Time Artificial Intelligence Warning System Linked Discharge and Water Quality (I) Application of Discharge-Water Quality Forecasting Model (유량과 수질을 연계한 실시간 인공지능 경보시스템 개발 (I) 유량-수질 예측모형의 적용)

  • Yeon, In-Sung;Ahn, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.7 s.156
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    • pp.565-574
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    • 2005
  • It is used water quality data that was measured at Pyeongchanggang real time monitoring stations in Namhan river. These characteristics were analyzed with the water qualify of rainy and nonrainy periods. TOC (Total Organic Carbon) data of rainy periods has correlation with discharge and shows high values of mean, maximum, and standard deviation. DO (Dissolved Oxygen) value of rainy periods is lower than those of nonrainy periods. Input data of the water quality forecasting models that they were constructed by neural network and neuro-fuzzy was chosen as the reasonable data, and water qualify forecasting models were applied. LMNN, MDNN, and ANFIS models have achieved the highest overall accuracy of TOC data. LMNN (Levenberg-Marquardt Neural Network) and MDNN (MoDular Neural Network) model which are applied for DO forecasting shows better results than ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System). MDNN model shows the lowest estimation error when using daily time, which is qualitative data trained with quantitative data. The observation of discharge and water quality are effective at same point as well as same time for real time management. But there are some of real time water quality monitoring stations far from the T/M water stage. Pyeongchanggang station is one of them. So discharge on Pyeongchanggang station was calculated by developed runoff neural network model, and the water quality forecasting model is linked to the runoff forecasting model. That linked model shows the improvement of waterquality forecasting.

Modeling Three-dimensional Free Surface Flow around Thin Wall Incorporation Hydrodynamic Pressure on δ-coordinate (δ-좌표계에서 동수압 계산 수중벽체 인근흐름 수치모형실험)

  • Kim, Hyo-Seob;Yoo, Ho-Jun;Jin, Jae-Yul;Jang, Chang-Hwan;Lee, Jung-Su;Baek, Seung-Won
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.327-336
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    • 2014
  • Submerged thin walls are extreme case of submerged rectangular blocks, and could be used for many purposes in rivers or coastal zones, e.g. to tsunami. To understand flow characteristics including flow and pressure fields around a specific submerged thin wall a numerical model was applied which includes computation of hydrodynamic pressure on ${\sigma}$-coordinate. ${\sigma}$-coordinate has strong merits for simulation of subcritical flow over mild-sloped beds. On the other hand ${\sigma}$-coordinate is quite poor to treat sharp structures on the bed. There have been a few trials to incorporate dynamic pressure in ${\sigma}$-coordinate by some researchers. One of the previous approaches includes process of sloving the Poisson equation. However, the above method includes many high-order terms, and requires long cpu for simulation. Another method SOLA was developed by Hirt et al. for computation of dynamic pressure, but it was valid for straight grid system only. Previous SOLA was modified for ${\sigma}$-coordinate for the present purpose and was adopted in a model system, CST3D. Computed flow field shows reasonable behaviour including vorticity is much stronger than the upstream and downstream of the structure. The model was verified to laboratory experiments at a 2DV flume. Time-average flow vectors were measured by using one-dimensional electro-magnetic velocimeter. Computed flow field agrees well with the measured flow field within 10 % error from the speed point of view at 5 profiles. It is thought that the modified SOLA scheme is useful for ${\sigma}$-coordinate system.

Improvement of the Method using the Coefficient of Variation for Automatic Multi-segmentation Method of a Rating Curve (수위-유량관계곡선의 자동구간분할을 위한 변동계수 활용기법의 개선)

  • Kim, Yeonsu;Kim, Jeongyup;An, Hyunuk;Jung, Kwansue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.807-816
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    • 2015
  • In general, the water stage-discharge relationship curve is established based on the assumptions of linearity and homoscedasticity. However, the relationship between the water stage and discharge is affected from geomorphological factors, which violates the basic assumptions of the water stage-discharge relationship curve. In order to reduce the error due to the violations, the curve is divided into several sections based on the manager's judgement considering change of cross-sectional shape. In this research, the objective-splitting criteria of the curve is proposed based on the measured data without the subjective decision. First, it is assumed that the coefficient of variation follows the normal distribution. Then, if the newly calculated coefficient of variation is outside of the 95% confidential interval, the curve is divided. Namely, the groups is divided by the characteristics of the coefficient of variation and the reasonable criteria is provided for establishing a multi-segmented rating curve. To validate the proposed method, it was applied to the data generated by three artificial power functions. In addition, to confirm the applicability of the proposed method, it is applied to the water stage and discharge data of the Muju water stage gauging station and Sangegyo water stage gauging station. As a result, it is found that the automatically divided rating curve improves the accuracy and extrapolation accuracy of the rating curve. Finally, through the residual analysis using Shapiro-Wilk normality test, it is confirmed that the residual of water stage-discharge relationship curve tends to follow the normal distribution.

Development of Runoff Hydrograph Model for the Derivation of Optimal Design Flood of Agricultural Hydraulic Structures(II) (농업수리구조물의 적정설계홍수량 유도를 위한 유출수문곡선 모형의 개발(II))

  • 이순혁;박명근;맹승진
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.112-126
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    • 1996
  • This study was conducted to develop an optimal runoff bydrograph model by comparison of the peak discharge and time to peak between observed and simulated flows derived by four different models, that is, linear time-invariant, linear time-variant, nonlinear time-invariant and nonlinear time-variant models under the conditions of heavy rainfalls with regionally uniform rainfall intensity in short durations at nine small watersheds. The results obtained through this study can be summarized as follows. 1. Parameters for four models including linear time-invariant, linear time-variant, nonlinear time-invariant and nonlinear time-variant models were calibrated using a trial and error method with rainfall and runoff data for the applied watersheds. Regression analysis among parameters, rainfall and watershed characteristics were established for both linear time-invariant and nonlinear time-invariant models. 2. Correlation coefficients of the simulated peak discharge of calibrated runoff hydrographs by using four models were shown to be a high significant to the peak of observed runoff graphs. Especially, it can be concluded that the simulated peak discharge of a linear time-variant model is approaching more closely to the observed runoff hydrograph in comparison with those of three models in the applied watersheds. 3. Correlation coefficients of the simulated time to peak of calibrated runoff hydrographs by using a linear time-variant model were shown to be a high significant to the time to peak of observed runoff hydrographs than those of the other models. 4. The peak discharge and time to peak of simulated runoff hydrogaphs by using linear time-variant model are verified to be approached more closely to those of observed runoff hydrographs than those of three models in the applied watersheds. 5. It can be generally concluded that the shape of simulated hydrograph based on a linear time-variant model is getting closer to the observed runoff hydrograph than those of three models in the applied watersheds. 6. Simulated hydrographs using the nonlinear time-variant model which is based on more closely to the theoritical background of the natural runoff process are not closer to the observed runoff hydrographs in comparison with those of three models in the applied watersheds. Consequently, it is to be desired that futher study for the nonlinear time-variant model should be continued with verification using rainfall-runoff data of the other watersheds in addition to the review of analyical techniques.

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A Study on Evaluation of Floor Vibration for Steel Frame Modular Housing (철골 조립식주택 바닥판 진동 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Sung;Jo, Min-Joo;Kim, Seung-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.104-111
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    • 2016
  • The steel frame modular housing of which the research and development has been actively carried out recently cannot be constructed through monolithic placement like the reinforced concrete deck of general structure due to the characteristics of construction method of production in the factory and assembly on the site. And floor vertical vibration and deflection caused by inhabitants' activities may become an important issue in the aspect of usability evaluation due to a decrease in the section size of member, a decrease in weight, and so on. Therefore, this study evaluated the vibration performance of deck by using formula of AISC Design Guide 11(hereinafter AISC formula) which was practically used in general for modules where a stud was and wasn't installed at the center of beam in the longitudinal direction in the modular housing to be studied, and examined the applicability of AISC formula through comparison with the results of analysis using a general-purpose analysis program. On the basis of this, a structural cause for an error to occur between analysis result and AISC formula in the deck of module in which a stud was installed was analysed, and measures for considering this were suggested. Besides, an analysis model with the variables of measures for improving the floor vibration performance of modular housing to be studied was established. And measures having excellent vibration performance and economic feasibility were suggested through vibration response analysis and economic evaluation.

Allometric Equations of Crown Fuel Biomass and Analysis of Crown Bulk Density for Pinus densiflora (소나무 수관 부위별 연료량 추정식 개발 및 수관연료밀도 분석)

  • Lee, Byung-Doo;Won, Myoung-Soo;Kim, Seon-Young;Yoon, Suk-Hee;Lee, Myung-Bo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.3
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    • pp.391-396
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    • 2010
  • To analyze the characteristics of canopy fuel in Pinus densiflora stand, which is essential to assess the crown fire hazard, allometric equations for estimation of crown fuel biomass were developed by subjectively categorized crown fuel component and crown bulk density was analyzed by available fuel component categories. Ten trees were destructively sampled at Pinus densiflora stand in Mt. Palgong in Daegu and their crown fuels were weighed separately for each fuel category by size classes and by living and dead. Regression equations that estimate crown fuel load by diameter at breast height(D) or additional total height(H) were derived. The adjusted coefficient of determination values were the highest (${R^2}_{adj}$=0.835-0.996) and standard error of estimate were the lowest (SEE=0.074-0.638) in the allometric equation lnWt=${\alpha}+{\beta}lnD+{\gamma}lnH$ in average. However, in needles and small branches categories, the differences in ${R^2}_{adj}$ and SEE between equations were not significant. Crown bulk density (CBD), which was calculated by crown fuel load divided by crown volume, was 0.067 kg/$m^3$ in average when only needles were considered as available crown fuel and 0.097 kg/$m^3$ when needles and branches (0-0.5 cm diameter) were considered. The increments of CBD of needles and small branches were little even when diameter at breast height increased.

Multi-Modal Controller Usability for Smart TV Control

  • Yu, Jeongil;Kim, Seongmin;Choe, Jaeho;Jung, Eui S.
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.517-528
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    • 2013
  • Objective: The objective of this study was to suggest a multi-modal controller type for Smart TV Control. Background: Recently, many issues regarding the Smart TV are arising due to the rising complexity of features in a Smart TV. One of the specific issues involves what type of controller must be utilized in order to perform regulated tasks. This study examines the ongoing trend of the controller. Method: The selected participants had experiences with the Smart TV and were 20 to 30 years of age. A pre-survey determined the first independent variable of five tasks(Live TV, Record, Share, Web, App Store). The second independent variable was the type of controllers(Conventional, Mouse, Voice-Based Remote Controllers). The dependent variables were preference, task completion time, and error rate. The experiment consist a series of three experiments. The first experiment utilized a uni-modal Controller for tasks; the second experiment utilized a dual-modal Controller, while the third experiment utilized a triple-modal Controller. Results: The first experiment revealed that the uni-modal Controller (Conventional, Voice Controller) showed the best results for the Live TV task. The second experiment revealed that the dual-modal Controller(Conventional-Voice, Conventional-Mouse combinations) showed the best results for the Share, Web, App Store tasks. The third experiment revealed that the triple-modal Controller among all the level had not effective compared with dual-modal Controller. Conclusion: In order to control simple tasks in a smart TV, our results showed that a uni-modal Controller was more effective than a dual-modal controller. However, the control of complex tasks was better suited to the dual-modal Controller. User preference for a controller differs according the Smart TV functions. For instance, there was a high user preference for the uni-Controller for simple functions while high user preference appeared for Dual-Controllers when the task was complex. Additionally, in accordance with task characteristics, there was a high user preference for the Voice Controller for channel and volume adjustment. Furthermore, there was a high user preference for the Conventional Controller for menu selection. In situations where the user had to input text, the Voice Controller had the highest preference among users while the Mouse Type, Voice Controller had the highest user preference for performing a search or selecting items on the menu. Application: The results of this study may be utilized in the design of a controller which can effectively carry out the various tasks of the Smart TV.