• Title/Summary/Keyword: equivalent probabilistic model

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A meso-scale approach to modeling thermal cracking of concrete induced by water-cooling pipes

  • Zhang, Chao;Zhou, Wei;Ma, Gang;Hu, Chao;Li, Shaolin
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.485-501
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    • 2015
  • Cooling by the flow of water through an embedded cooling pipe has become a common and effective artificial thermal control measure for massive concrete structures. However, an extreme thermal gradient induces significant thermal stress, resulting in thermal cracking. Using a mesoscopic finite-element (FE) mesh, three-phase composites of concrete namely aggregate, mortar matrix and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) are modeled. An equivalent probabilistic model is presented for failure study of concrete by assuming that the material properties conform to the Weibull distribution law. Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient introduced by the statistical method is incorporated into the Weibull distribution formula. Subsequently, a series of numerical analyses are used for investigating the influence of the correlation coefficient on tensile strength and the failure process of concrete based on the equivalent probabilistic model. Finally, as an engineering application, damage and failure behavior of concrete cracks induced by a water-cooling pipe are analyzed in-depth by the presented model. Results show that the random distribution of concrete mechanical parameters and the temperature gradient near water-cooling pipe have a significant influence on the pattern and failure progress of temperature-induced micro-cracking in concrete.

Probabilistic Reliability Based Grid Expansion Planning of Power System Including Wind Turbine Generators

  • Cho, Kyeong-Hee;Park, Jeong-Je;Choi, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.698-704
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    • 2012
  • This paper proposes a new methodology for evaluating the probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of composite power system including the Wind Turbine Generators. The proposed model includes capacity limitations and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. It proposes to handle the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines, transformers and wind resources of WTG, etc.) by a Composite power system Equivalent Load Duration Curve (CMELDC)-based model considering wind turbine generators (WTG). The model is derived from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on an effective nodal load model including WTGs. Several scenarios are used to choose the optimal solution among various scenarios featuring new candidate lines. The characteristics and effectiveness of this simulation model are illustrated by case study using Jeju power system in South Korea.

Probabilistic Production Costing Model based on Economic Load Dispatch (경제급전방식에 의한 확률적 운전비계산 모델)

  • Shim, Keon-Bo;Lee, Bong-Yong;Shin, Chung-Rin;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1987.07a
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    • pp.640-643
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    • 1987
  • A probabilistic production costing model based on the economic load dispatch has been developed. Objective function is composed of fuel cost which is a function of generation output and the failure cost. Coefficients of the failure cost is determined from the known equivalent generation cost. The model is compared with other existing methodolgies and the excellent results are obtained.

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Non-Gaussian approach for equivalent static wind loads from wind tunnel measurements

  • Kassir, Wafaa;Soize, Christian;Heck, Jean-Vivien;De Oliveira, Fabrice
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.589-608
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    • 2017
  • A novel probabilistic approach is presented for estimating the equivalent static wind loads that produce a static response of the structure, which is "equivalent" in a probabilistic sense, to the extreme dynamic responses due to the unsteady pressure random field induced by the wind. This approach has especially been developed for complex structures (such as stadium roofs) for which the unsteady pressure field is measured in a boundary layer wind tunnel with a turbulent incident flow. The proposed method deals with the non-Gaussian nature of the unsteady pressure random field and presents a model that yields a good representation of both the quasi-static part and the dynamical part of the structural responses. The proposed approach is experimentally validated with a relatively simple application and is then applied to a stadium roof structure for which experimental measurements of unsteady pressures have been performed in boundary layer wind tunnel.

A Basic Study on Relationship between Reliability and Congestion Cost of Composite Power System (복합전력계통의 신뢰도와 혼잡비용과의 상관관계성에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Choi, J.S.;Tran, T.T.;Kwon, J.J.;Jeong, S.H.;Bo, Shi;Mount, Timothy;Thomas, Robert
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.275-278
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    • 2006
  • This paper describes a probabilistic annual congestion cost assessment of a grid at a composite power system derived from a model. This probabilistic congestion cost assessment simulation model includes capacity limitation and uncertainties of the generators and transmission lines. In this paper, the proposed probabilistic congestion cost assessment model is focused on an annualized simulation methodology for solving long-term grid expansion planning issues. It emphasizes the questions of "how should the uncertainties of system elements (generators, lines and transformers, etc.) be considered for annual congestion cost assessment from the macro economic view point"? This simulation methodology comes essentially from a probabilistic production cost simulation model of composite power systems. This type of model comes from a nodal equivalent load duration curve based on a new effective load model at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new simulation model are illustrated by several case studies of a test system.

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An Equivalent Fatigue Load Model for Prestressed Concrete Bridges Girders (프리스트레스트 콘크리트 교량거더의 등가피로하중모델)

  • 김지상
    • Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.148-158
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    • 1994
  • The goal of this study is to develop an equivalent fatigue load model for prestressed concrete composite girder bridges in Korea. To meet this goal, the probabilistic characteristics of traffics which cause fatigue damage in bridges are properly modeled. An equivalent fatigue load inodel for prestressed concrete composite girder bridges with constant. amplitude and frequency is established. The model proposed in this paper is very simple to use and gives fairly good results.

Probabilistic Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Structures considering Joint Fastening and Tolerance (체결부 및 공차를 고려한 구조물의 확률기반 동적 특성 연구)

  • Won, Jun-Ho;Kwang, Kang-Jin;Choi, Joo-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2010
  • Structural vibration is a significant problem in many multi-part or multi-component assemblies. In aircraft industry, structures are composed of various fasteners, such as bolts, snap, hinge, weld or other fastener or connector (collectively "fasteners"). Due to these, prediction and design involving dynamic characteristics is quite complicated. However, the current state of the art does not provide an analytical tool to effectively predict structure's dynamic characteristics, because consideration of structural uncertainties (i.e. material properties, geometric tolerance, dimensional tolerance, environment and so on) is difficult and very small fasteners in the structure cause a huge amount of analysis time to predict dynamic characteristics using the FEM (finite element method). In this study, to resolve the current state of the art, a new approach is proposed using the FEM and probabilistic analysis. Firstly, equivalent elements are developed using simple element (e.g. bar, beam, mass) to replace fasteners' finite element model. Developed equivalent elements enable to explain static behavior and dynamic behavior of the structure. Secondly, probabilistic analysis is applied to evaluate the PDF (probability density function) of dynamic characteristics due to tolerance, material properties and so on. MCS (Monte-Carlo simulation) is employed for this. Proposed methodology offers efficiency of dynamic analysis and reality of the field as well. Simple plates joined by fasteners are taken as an example to illustrate the proposed method.

A stochastic adaptive pushover procedure for seismic assessment of buildings

  • Jafari, Mohammad;Soltani, Masoud
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.477-492
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the adaptive nonlinear static analysis method has been widely used in the field of performance based earthquake engineering. However, the proposed methods are almost deterministic and cannot directly consider the seismic record uncertainties. In the current study an innovative Stochastic Adaptive Pushover Analysis, called "SAPA", based on equivalent hysteresis system responses is developed to consider the earthquake record to record uncertainties. The methodology offers a direct stochastic analysis which estimates the seismic demands of the structure in a probabilistic manner. In this procedure by using a stochastic linearization technique in each step, the equivalent hysteresis system is analyzed and the probabilistic characteristics of the result are obtained by which the lateral force pattern is extracted and the actual structure is pushed. To compare the results, three different types of analysis have been considered; conventional pushover methods, incremental dynamic analysis, IDA, and the SAPA method. The result shows an admirable accuracy in predicting the structure responses.

Seismic response distribution estimation for isolated structures using stochastic response database

  • Eem, Seung-Hyun;Jung, Hyung-Jo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.937-956
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    • 2015
  • Seismic isolation systems decouple structures from ground motions to protect them from seismic events. Seismic isolation devices have been implemented in many full-scale buildings and bridges because of their simplicity, economic effectiveness, inherent stability, and reliability. It is well known that the most uncertain aspect for obtaining the accurate responses of an isolated structure from seismic events is the seismic loading itself. It is needed to know the seismic response distributions of the isolated structure resulting from the randomness of earthquakes when probabilistic designing or probabilistic evaluating an isolated structure. Earthquake time histories are useful and often an essential element for designing or evaluating isolated structures. However, it is very challenging to gather the design and evaluation information for an isolated structure from many seismic analyses. In order to evaluate the seismic performance of an isolated structure, numerous nonlinear dynamic analyses need to be performed, but this is impractical. In this paper, the concept of the stochastic response database (SRD) is defined to obtain the seismic response distributions of an isolated structure instantaneously, thereby significantly reducing the computational efforts. An equivalent model of the isolated structure is also developed to improve the applicability and practicality of the SRD. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is numerically verified.

Methodology for Reliability-based Assessment of Capacity-Rating of Plate Girder Railroad Bridges using Ambient Measurement Data (상시 계측 데이터를 이용한 신뢰성에 기초한 판형 철도교의 내하력 평가법)

  • Cho, Hyo Nam;Choi, Hyun Ho;Lee, Sang Yoon;Sun, Jong Wan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.187-196
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    • 2003
  • Today, the Working Stress Rating (WSR) is being widely used for the capacity-rating and the safety assessment of railroad steel bridges. Since it cannot incorporate the uncertainties, several studies have been carried out in order to get over the incompleteness of the conventional capacity-rating and safety assessment. A system reliability-based equivalent capacity-rating method, which can evaluate the capacity of existing bridges, has been recently proposed. For more efficient reliability analysis, probabilistic parameters of the random variables in the limit-state models should be reasonably evaluated. Especially, uncertainties for live load effects must be realistically included. In this study, an improved limit-state model was used for the system reliability-based equivalent strength method. This model can incorporate the probabilistic parameters obtained from ambient measurement data. To demonstrate the applicability of the improved system reliability-based equivalent capacity rating method, this was applied to the existing steel plate girder bridge for comparison with the conventional capacity-rating and safety assessment.