• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.59-74
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• 2022

This study introduces a general reliability-based, performance-based design framework to design frames regarding their uncertainties and user-defined design goals. The Iterative-R method extracted from the main framework can designate a proper R (i.e., response modification factor) satisfying the design goal regarding target reliability index and pre-defined probability of collapse. The proposed methodology is based on FEMA P-695 and can be used for all systems that FEMA P-695 applies. To exemplify the method, multiple three-dimensional, four-story steel special moment-resisting frames are considered. Closed-form relationships are fitted between frames' responses and the modeling parameters. Those fits are used to construct limit state functions to apply reliability analysis methods for design safety assessment and the selection of proper R. The frameworks' unique feature is to consider arbitrarily defined probability density functions of frames' modeling parameters with an insignificant analysis burden. This characteristic enables the alteration in those parameters' distributions to meet the design goal. Furthermore, with sensitivity analysis, the most impactful parameters are identifiable for possible improvements to meet the design goal. In the studied examples, it is revealed that a proper R for frames with different levels of uncertainties could be significantly different from suggested values in design codes, alarming the importance of considering the stochastic behavior of elements' nonlinear behavior.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.275-286
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• 2013

It is well known that exposure to high level of PM (particulate matter) can adversely affect human health. However, little is known about health burden of PM considering the relationship, exposed level of PM, and health level in local communities. And, there is scarcely methodical assessment of uncertainty for application to policies of these assessment results. The scope of this study is divided into two parts: firstly to estimate the death burden of PM10 (particulate matter less then $10{\mu}m$ in diameter) in Seoul metropolitan region, and secondly to evaluate potential uncertainties in these estimates. To estimate the death burden of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region from 2005~2010, we firstly assessed the relationship between daily mean PM10 and daily death counts in Seoul from 2000~2010, and calculated the death burden of PM10 using BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). After that, we identified and characterized uncertainties to substantially influence the results of death burden. The daily mortality risk was increased 1.000227 times (p-value/0.001) associated with $1{\mu}g/m^3$ increase of daily mean PM10 for all ages population, Seoul. And, death burdens of PM10 in Seoul metropolitan region were estimated from 5.51 in 2005 to 5.12 in 2010 per 100,000 people. Finally, we categorized context, model, and input uncertainty and characterized these uncertainties in three dimensions (i.e. location, level, and nature) using uncertainty typology. In our study, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making, such as the establishment of air quality standards based on health burden of air quality.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2006년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1148-1154
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• 2006

Composite discharge capacity tests and smear effect tests are carried out to estimate the parameters for the reliability-based design of vertical drain method. Also the probabilistic and deterministic solutions of radial consolidation theory are presented. It compared to the result of reliability-based design and that of deterministic design using the tested and estimated parameters. The results indicated that the drain spacing is larger the deterministic method than the probabilistic method because the former is not considered the uncertainties in the properties of soil. The divergence of methods is dependent on the probability of achieving target degree of consolidation by a given time and the coefficient of variation(COV) of the coefficient of horizontal consolidation$(c_h)$.

• International Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology Speciallssue:Selected Papers
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.46-52
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• 2002

A robust nonlinear observer, utilizing the sliding mode concept, is developed for the dynamic positioning of ships. The observer provides the estimates of linear velocities of the ship and bias from slowly varying environmental loads. It also filters out wave frequency motion to avoid wear of actuators and excessive fuel consumption. The main advantage of the proposed observer is in its robustness. Especially, the observer structure with a saturation function makes the proposed observer robust against neglected nonlinearties, disturbances and uncertainties. Since the mathematical model of DP ships is difficult to obtain and includes uncertainties and disturbances, it is very important for the observer to be robust. A nonlinear output feedback controller is derives based on the developed observer using the observer backstepping technique, and the global stability of the observer and control law is shown by Lyapunov stability theory.. A set of simulation was carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed observer for dynamic positioning of ships.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.74-80
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• 2013

This study describes structural reliability analysis of actively-controlled structure for which random vibration analysis is incorporated into the first-order reliability method (FORM) framework. The existing approaches perform the reliability analysis based on the RMS response, whereas the proposed study uses the peak response for the reliability analysis. Therefore, the proposed approach provides us a meaningful performance measure of the active control system, i.e., realistic failure probability. In addition, it can deal with the uncertainties in the system parameters as well as the excitations in single-loop reliability analysis, whereas the conventional random vibration analysis requires double-loop reliability analysis; one is for the system parameters and the other is for stochastic excitations. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a numerical example where the proposed approach shows fast and accurate reliability (or inversely failure probability) assessment results of the dynamical active control system against random seismic excitations in the presence of parametric uncertainties of the dynamical structural system.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.427-430
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• 2006

Uncertainty is one of the key issues of the water quality management. Uncertainty occurs in the course of all water quality management stages including monitoring, modeling, and regulation enforcement. To reduce uncertainties of water quality monitoring, manualized monitoring methodology should be developed and implemented. In addition, long-term monitoring is essential for acquiring reliable water quality data which enables best water quality management. For the water quality management in the watershed scale, fate of pollutant including its generation, transport and impact should be considered while regarding each stage of water quality management as an unit process. Uncertainties of each stage of water quality management should be treated properly to prevent error propagation transferred to the next stage of management for successful achievement of water quality conservation.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제20권8호
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• pp.910-916
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• 1999

A current interest in chemistry concerns traceability of analytical measurements to the International System of Units (SI) and the proper estimation of their uncertainties in accordance with the internationally agreed guide provided by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). Isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) is regarded as a primary method, which make the measurement results traceable to SI units without significant empirical correction factors. Our laboratory, as the national standards institute of Korea, participated in an intercomparison of environmental analysis, pp'-DDE in corn oil, which was organized by the CCQM under supervision of the CIPM to test feasibility of IDMS as a primary method for the trace analysis of organic compounds. In this report, we provide basic equations used for the calculation of the concentration of the analyte in a sample and a precise description of the processes for the evaluation of the uncertainties of the measurement results. Also, we report the experimental conditions adopted to improve the accuracy of the IDMS measurement. The principles contained in ？？Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement'' provided by ISO are followed for the uncertainty evaluation.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.174-178
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• 2015

This paper presents a new method for forecasting construction project cost and time at completion or at any intermediate time horizon of the project duration. The method is designed to overcome identified limitations of current applications of earned value method in forecasting project cost and time. The proposed method usesfuzzy set theory to model uncertainties associated with project performance and it integrates the earned value technique and the contractors' judgement. The fuzzy set theory is applied as an alternative approach to deterministic and probabilistic methods. Using fuzzy set theory allows contractors to: (1) perform risk analysis for different scenarios of project performance indices, and (2) perform different scenarios expressing vagueness and imprecision of forecasted project cost and time using a set of measures and indices. Unlike the current applications of Earned Value Method(EVM), The proposed method has a numberof interesting features: (1) integrating contractors' judgement in forecasting project performance; (2) enabling contractors to evaluate the risk associated with cost overrun in much simpler method comparing with that of simulation, and (3) accounting for uncertainties involved in the forecasting project cost.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.343-350
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• 2015

천해역에서의 해상풍력터빈의 기초 형식으로 모노파일, 트라이포드, 재킷 등의 고정식 기초 사이의 최적의 지지구조물 선별에 대한 논의가 세계적으로 활발하게 되어왔다. 다양한 기초 형식 가운데 어떤 기초를 최종 선택하기 위해서는 경제성과 함께 동적설계 측면에서의 검토도 필요하다. 이 연구에서는 고정식 기초를 해상풍력터빈의 기초로 적용하는 경우 전체 구조물의 고유주파수에 미치는 하중 및 지반 물성치의 불확실성의 영향을 정량적으로 검토하였다. 연구결과, 모노파일의 고유주파수의 변동이 가장 심한 것을 알 수 있었고, 따라서 모노파일 기초를 설계에 반영하는 경우에는 지반 물성치의 불확실성을 최소화시키는 것이 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

• 환경분석과 독성보건
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.209-219
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• 2018

In the areas of RoHS, WEEE, ELV and REACH, reinforcement of environmental regulations against harmful substances is a global trend not only in EC but also in all over the world. In the fields of Korea's major export products such as material parts, electrical and electronic products and automobile parts, we are responding to these regulations consistently. To develop reference material for analyzing lead and cadmium in paints, the candidate materials were produced through the screening process which separated shapes and sizes. To secure the traceability of the candidate materials produced, the characteristics and uncertainties are estimated by ICP-AES analysis using the primary reference material. The short-term and long-term stabilities also are evaluated in parallel. In order to calculate the final certification value of the candidate material, the verification were carried out by the performance evaluation through the comparison among the KOLAS (Korea Laboratory Accreditation Scheme) laboratories, and the CRM was produced in accordance with ISO Guide 35. The certified values and uncertainties of Pb and Cd of the final paint standard, determined according to the joint analysis among laboratories, are Pb [($191.4{\pm}3.1$) mg/kg, ($944.1{\pm}5.6$) mg/kg] and Cd [($45.0{\pm}2.6$) mg/kg, ($225.5{\pm}3.5$) mg/kg]. These standard materials were developed to enhance the reliability of measurement analysis, including the validity and traceability of measurement results. Also it is expected that the CRM will be used as QCM (quality control material) for the product design and the process monitoring, so that regulation and management of hazardous heavy metals can be systematically implemented.