• Title/Summary/Keyword: ensemble mean

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Enhancement of Evoked Potential Waveform using Delay-compensated Wiener Filtering (지연보상 위너 필터링에 의한 유발전위 파형개선)

  • Lee, JeeEun;Yoo, Sun K.
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.12
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the evoked potential(EP) was represented by additive delay model to comply with the variational noisy response of stimulus-event synchronization. The hybrid method of delay compensated-Wiener filtered-ensemble averaging(DWEA) was proposed to enhance the EP signal distortion occurred during averaging procedure due to synchronization timing mismatch. The performance of DWEA has been tested by surrogated simulation, which is composed of synthesized arbitrary delay and arbitrary level of added noise. The performance of DWEA is better than those of Wiener filtered-ensemble averaging and of conventional ensemble averaging. DWEA is endurable up to added noise gain of 7 for 10 % mean square error limit. Throughout the experimentation observation, it has been demonstrated that DWEA can be applied to enhance the evoked potential having the synchronization mismatch with added noise.

A Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting - Evaluation by Typhoon Bolaven Case - (풍력예보를 위한 단순 앙상블예측시스템 - 태풍 볼라벤 사례를 통한 평가 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Kang, Yong-Heack;Yun, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Ji-Young;Lee, Jun-Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2016
  • A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.

Comparative characteristic of ensemble machine learning and deep learning models for turbidity prediction in a river (딥러닝과 앙상블 머신러닝 모형의 하천 탁도 예측 특성 비교 연구)

  • Park, Jungsu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2021
  • The increased turbidity in rivers during flood events has various effects on water environmental management, including drinking water supply systems. Thus, prediction of turbid water is essential for water environmental management. Recently, various advanced machine learning algorithms have been increasingly used in water environmental management. Ensemble machine learning algorithms such as random forest (RF) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) are some of the most popular machine learning algorithms used for water environmental management, along with deep learning algorithms such as recurrent neural networks. In this study GBDT, an ensemble machine learning algorithm, and gated recurrent unit (GRU), a recurrent neural networks algorithm, are used for model development to predict turbidity in a river. The observation frequencies of input data used for the model were 2, 4, 8, 24, 48, 120 and 168 h. The root-mean-square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) of GRU and GBDT ranges between 0.182~0.766 and 0.400~0.683, respectively. Both models show similar prediction accuracy with RSR of 0.682 for GRU and 0.683 for GBDT. The GRU shows better prediction accuracy when the observation frequency is relatively short (i.e., 2, 4, and 8 h) where GBDT shows better prediction accuracy when the observation frequency is relatively long (i.e. 48, 120, 160 h). The results suggest that the characteristics of input data should be considered to develop an appropriate model to predict turbidity.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

The Influences of Factors on Turbulence Intensity in Combustion Chamber (연소실내의 난류강도에 미치는 각종 인자의 영향)

  • 한성빈;이상준;이종태;이성열
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.793-804
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    • 1994
  • Turbulence intensity caused by piston movement was almost as same tendency as the piston speed. The turbulence intensity was increased from 0.39m/s to 0.79m/s when mean piston speed increased from 2.33m/s to 4.67m/s. In this case the maximum turbulence intensity caused by piston speed was decreased about 82 percent near the top dead center at the end of compression stroke. The maximum turbulence intensity was created from 12m/s to 22m/s when inlet flow velocity was increased from 22m/s to 45m/s. Also turbulence intensity caused by inlet flow velocity was linearly increased from 0.97m/s at top dead center at the end of compression stroke. The ratio of turbulence intensity and mean inlet flow velocity was about 3 percent for inlet flow velocity.

Analysis of ensemble streamflow prediction effect on deriving dam releases for water supply (용수공급을 위한 댐 방류량 결정에서의 앙상블 유량 예측 효과 분석)

  • Kim, Yeonju;Kim, Gi Joo;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.969-980
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    • 2023
  • Since the 2000s, ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) has been actively utilized in South Korea, primarily for hydrological forecasting purposes. Despite its notable success in hydrological forecasting, the original objective of enhancing water resources system management has been relatively overlooked. Consequently, this study aims to demonstrate the utility of ESP in water resources management by creating a simple hypothetical exercise for dam operators and applying it to actual multi-purpose dams in South Korea. The hypothetical exercise showed that even when the means of ESP are identical, different costs can result from varying standard deviations. Subsequently, using sampling stochastic dynamic programming (SSDP) and considering the capacity-inflow ratio (CIR), optimal release patterns were derived for Soyang Dam (CIR = 1.345) and Chungju Dam (CIR = 0.563) based on types W and P. For this analysis, Type W was defined with standard deviation equal to the mean inflow, and Type P with standard deviation ten times of the mean inflow. Simulated operations were conducted from 2020 to 2022 using the derived optimal releases. The results indicate that in the case of Dam Chungju, more aggressive optimal release patterns were derived under types with smaller standard deviations, and the simulated operations demonstrated satisfactory outcomes. Similarly, Soyang Dam exhibited similar results in terms of optimal release, but there was no significant difference in the simulation between types W and P due to its large CIR. Ultimately, this study highlights that even with the same mean values, the standard deviation of ESP impacts optimal release patterns and outcomes in simulation. Additionally, it underscores that systems with smaller CIRs are more sensitive to such uncertainties. Based on these findings, there is potential for improvements in South Korea's current operational practices, which rely solely on single representative values for water resources management.

Application of Artificial Neural Network Ensemble Model Considering Long-term Climate Variability: Case Study of Dam Inflow Forecasting in Han-River Basin (장기 기후 변동성을 고려한 인공신경망 앙상블 모형 적용: 한강 유역 댐 유입량 예측을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Taereem;Joo, Kyungwon;Cho, Wanhee;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2019
  • Recently, climate indices represented by quantifying atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns have been widely used to predict hydrologic variables for considering long-term climate variability. Hydrologic forecasting models based on artificial neural networks have been developed to provide accurate and stable forecasting performance. Forecasts of hydrologic variables considering climate variability can be effectively used for long-term management of water resources and environmental preservation. Therefore, identifying significant indicators for hydrologic variables and applying forecasting models still remains as a challenge. In this study, we selected representative climate indices that have significant relationships with dam inflow time series in the Han-River basin, South Korea for applying the dam inflow forecasting model. For this purpose, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) method was used to identify a significance between dam inflow and climate indices and an artificial neural network(ANN) ensemble model was applied to overcome the limitation of a single ANN model. As a result, the forecasting performances showed that the mean correlation coefficient of the five dams in the training period is 0.88, and the test period is 0.68. It can be expected to come out various applications using the relationship between hydrologic variables and climate variability in South Korea.

Multi-Time Window Feature Extraction Technique for Anger Detection in Gait Data

  • Beom Kwon;Taegeun Oh
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we propose a technique of multi-time window feature extraction for anger detection in gait data. In the previous gait-based emotion recognition methods, the pedestrian's stride, time taken for one stride, walking speed, and forward tilt angles of the neck and thorax are calculated. Then, minimum, mean, and maximum values are calculated for the entire interval to use them as features. However, each feature does not always change uniformly over the entire interval but sometimes changes locally. Therefore, we propose a multi-time window feature extraction technique that can extract both global and local features, from long-term to short-term. In addition, we also propose an ensemble model that consists of multiple classifiers. Each classifier is trained with features extracted from different multi-time windows. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed feature extraction technique and ensemble model, a public three-dimensional gait dataset was used. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble model achieves the best performance compared to machine learning models trained with existing feature extraction techniques for four performance evaluation metrics.

Characteristics of Tip Vortex by Blade Loading (Blade Loading에 의한 팁와류의 특성)

  • Yoon, Yong Sang;Song, Seung Jin
    • 유체기계공업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2002.12a
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    • pp.273-278
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    • 2002
  • The characteristics of tip vortex within a blade tip region were examined experimentally in various flow coefficients by the way of changing tip clearance and blade stagger angle in an axial Low Speed Research Compressor(LSRC). The objective was to identify the unsteady pressure distribution in the blade passage by ensemble average technique acquired from high-frequency response pressure transducers and the tip vortex by root mean square value(RMS value). Data were reduced statistically using phase-lock technique for detailed pressure distributions.

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Study on Control Model Based on Signal Processing In End-Milling Process (엔드밀 공정에서의 신호처리에 따른 제어모델에 관한 연구)

  • 양우석;이건복
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.192-196
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    • 2001
  • This work describes the modeling of cutting process for feedback control based on signal processing in end-milling. Here, cutting force is used to design control model by a variety of schemes which are moving average, ensemble average, peak value, root mean square and analog low-pass filtering. It is expected that each model offers its own peculiar advantage in following cutting force control.

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