• 제목/요약/키워드: end of the century

검색결과 507건 처리시간 0.035초

관측 자료와 RCP8.5 시나리오를 이용한 우리나라 극한기온의 월별 변화 (Monthly Changes in Temperature Extremes over South Korea Based on Observations and RCP8.5 Scenario)

  • 김진욱;권원태;변영화
    • 한국기후변화학회지
    • /
    • 제6권2호
    • /
    • pp.61-72
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, we have investigated monthly changes in temperature extremes in South Korea for the past (1921~2010) and the future (2011~2100). We used seven stations' (Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, Mokpo) data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the past. For the future we used the closest grid point values to observations from the RCP8.5 scenario of 1 km resolution. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)'s climate extreme indices were employed to quantify the characteristics of temperature extremes change. Temperature extreme indices in summer have increased while those in winter have decreased in the past. The extreme indices are expected to change more rapidly in the future than in the past. The number of frost days (FD) is projected to decrease in the future, and the occurrence period will be shortened by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century (2071~2100) compared to the present (1981~2010). The number of hot days (HD) is projected to increase in the future, and the occurrence period is projected to lengthen by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century compared to the present. The annual highest temperature and its fluctuation is expected to increase. Accordingly, the heat damage is also expected to increase. The result of this study can be used as an information on damage prevention measures due to temperature extreme events.

Accessing socio-economic and climate change impacts on surface water availability in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan with using WEAP model.

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
    • /
    • pp.407-407
    • /
    • 2019
  • According to Asian Development Bank report Pakistan is among water scarce countries. Climate scenario on the basis IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) revealed that annual mean temperature of Pakistan from year 2010-2019 was $17C^o$ which will rise up to $21C^o$ at the end of this century, similarly almost 10% decrease of annual rainfall is expected at the end of the century. It is a changing task in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan to meet the water demands of rapidly increasing population in a changing climate. While many studies have tackled scarcity and stream flow forecasting of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan, very few of them are related to socio-economic and climate change impact on sustainable water management of UIB. This study investigates the pattern of current and future surface water availability for various demand sites (e.g. domestic, agriculture and industrial) under different socio-economic and climate change scenarios in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan for a period of 2010 to 2050. A state-of-the-art planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) is used to analyze the dynamics of current and future water demand. The stream flow data of five sub catchment (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shoyke) and entire UIB were calibrated and validated for the year of 2006 to 2011 using WEAP. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficient and coefficient of determination is achieved ranging from 0.63 to 0.92. The results indicate that unmet water demand is likely to increase severe threshold and the external driving forces e.g. socio-economic and climate change will create a gap between supply and demand of water.

  • PDF

우리나라 인근과 유럽의 계절에 따른 강수와 기온의 관계 및 RCP8.5 시나리오에 기반한 미래 전망 (The Seasonal Correlation Between Temperature and Precipitation Over Korea and Europe and the Future Change From RCP8.5 Scenario)

  • 김진욱;부경온;심성보;권원태;변영화
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제27권1호
    • /
    • pp.79-91
    • /
    • 2017
  • It is imperative to understand the characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns under the climate system due to its impact on climatic factors. Thus this study focused on analyzing the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the relationship between precipitation and temperature regionally. Here we used monthly gridded observational data (i.e., CRU-TS3.2, NOAA-20CR V2c) and HadGEM2-AO climate model by RCP8.5, for the period of 1960~1999 and 2060~2099. The experiment results indicated that the negative relationship was presented over East Asia and Europe during summer. On the other hand, at around Korea (i.e. EA1: $31^{\circ}N{\sim}38^{\circ}N$, $126^{\circ}E{\sim}140^{\circ}E$) and Northwestern Europe (i.e. EU1: $48^{\circ}N{\sim}55^{\circ}N$, $0^{\circ}E{\sim}16^{\circ}E$) in winter, strong positive relationship dominate due to warm moist advection come from ocean related to intensity variation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. It was found that values of positive relation in EA1 and EU1 at the end of the 21st century is regionally greater than at the end of 20th century during winter since magnitude of variation of the EAWM and NAO is projected to be greater in the future as result of simulation with RCP 8.5. Future summer, the negative correlations are weakened in EA1 region while strengthened in EU1 region. For better understanding of correlations with respect to RCP scenarios, a further study is required.

RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 동아시아 지표복사에너지와 운량 변화 전망 (Future Changes in Surface Radiation and Cloud Amount over East Asia under RCP Scenarios)

  • 이철;부경온;심성보;변영화
    • 한국기후변화학회지
    • /
    • 제7권4호
    • /
    • pp.433-442
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this study, we examine future changes in surface radiation associated with cloud amount and aerosol emission over East Asia. Data in this study is HadGEM2-CC (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2, Carbon Cycle) simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6/4.5/8.5. Results show that temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmosphere $CO_2$. At the end of $21^{st}$ century (2070~2099) relative to the end of $20^{st}$ century (1981~2005), changes in temperature and precipitation rate are expected to increase by $+1.85^{\circ}C/+6.6%$ for RCP2.6, $+3.09^{\circ}C/+8.5%$ for RCP4.5, $+5.49^{\circ}C/10%$ for RCP8.5. The warming results from increasing Net Down Surface Long Wave Radiation Flux (LW) and Net Down Surface Short Wave Radiation Flux (SW) as well. SW change increases mainly from reduced total Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and low-level cloud amount. LW change is associated with increasing of atmospheric $CO_2$ and total cloud amount, since increasing cloud amounts are related to absorb LW radiation and remit the energy toward the surface. The enhancement of precipitation is attributed by increasing of high-level cloud amount. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension. Expansion of C3 grass and shrub is distinct over East Asia, inducing large latent heat flux increment.

지방 정기시장의 변화과정과 지역사회 - 장성 황룡장을 중심으로 - (Transformation of Local Community and Local Marketplace)

  • 홍성흡
    • 한국경제지리학회지
    • /
    • 제7권2호
    • /
    • pp.297-313
    • /
    • 2004
  • 이 글은 장성군 황룡장을 소재로 지방 장시의 변화과정을 구술과 기억자료에 의해 재구성한 것이다. 장시에 대한 기존연구는 대부분 역사학에서 이루어져 왔기 때문에 이 연구는 새로운 방법론을 검토하는 시도이다. 황룡장은 18세기 중엽에 장시가 처음 있었다는 것이 문헌으로 확인할 수 있다는 점 이외에 시장 출현의 구체적 원인에 대해서 규명할 수 있는 자료는 없는 상태이다. 조선 후기경 이미 인근 6개군의 주민들이 황룡장을 찾는 장시로 성립되어 있었고, 특히 우시장으로서 성가가 있었던 것으로 확인된다. 그러나 조선 후기를 거쳐 일제시대에 접어들어 장시가 번성하게 된 데에는 세금 징수와 1차 산품의 매집이라는 외부적 변수가 크게 작용했던 것으로 보인다. 이때가 황룡장으로서는 전성기였고 사회경제적인 측면에서뿐만 아니라 정치적, 문화적인 측면에서도 지역사회의 중심 고리 역할을 하고 있었다. 해방 이후의 정치적 혼란기에는 경제적 측면에서 시장의 경제적 기능은 약화되었지만 정치적 기능은 오히려 강화되었던 것으로 생각한다. 그 후 정치적 이유로 장터가 없어질 수 있는 위기를 맞기도 했지만 주민들과 시장 상인들의 힘으로 이를 저지시키면서 다시 장이 활성화되기도 하였다. 그렇지만 근대화라는 지금까지와는 전혀 다른 물결이 밀려 오면서 독자적인 상권을 유지하지 못한 채 광주권에 편입되어 쇄락을 길을 걷고 있는 상태이다. 특히 호남고속도로를 비롯한 각종 도로의 확충과 이농에 따른 농업의 기계화는 우시장으로서의 황룡장의 정체성이 흔들리게 되는데 결정적 타격을 입혔다. 지금은 인근에서도 규모가 작은 시골 장터로 변했고 개점휴업상태의 상설 상점들도 많은 상태이다. 앞으로 황룡장은 지역 축제 등의 이벤트성 행사라든지, 특산품의 유일한 유통 경로로 자리매김되는 등의 큰 변화가 발생하지 않는 한 지금의 추세는 멈추지 않을 것으로 보인다.

  • PDF

낙산사 공중 사리탑 복장직물의 조형특성 및 시기감정 (Characteristics of Textiles Found in the Pagoda at Naksan Temple)

  • 조효숙
    • 복식
    • /
    • 제59권6호
    • /
    • pp.29-40
    • /
    • 2009
  • On April 28th of 2006, a set of Buddha's reliquary was excavated from the pagoda in n Nacsan Temple. According to the record, the relics were put in the pagoda in the 18th year of King SookJong in the Chosun Dynasty (1692). The present paper examines ten pieces of wrapping clothes covering reliquary found in the pagoda. They are especially precious data in the history of textiles because they were blocked off from outside and was preserved in good condition with vivid colors still remaining after more than 300 years. Of the ten pieces of wrapping cloth, five were double-layered and the other five were single-layered. They include 15 pieces of silk fabric but, excluding repeated use of the same silk fabric, the total of 11 pieces of silk fabric were examined. All 11 kinds of silk fabric were patterned, 9 of which were Satin and the other 2 were Twill. Of the 9 Satin pieces, 8 pieces were 5-end satin which had the ground of 5-end warp satin with the figure of 5-end weft satin. The remaining 1 Satin piece were more splendid with prominent figures by using warp and weft of different colors. The 2 Twill pieces used twill weave-the ground was 3-end warp twill and the figures were 5-end weft twill. Both of the Twill pieces were weaved with character patterns, partly using wrapped gold thread as supplementary weft. The patterns of 11 pieces of silk fabric include flower, dragon/phoenix, cloud, and geometric patterns. Five were flower patterns, three were dragon/phoenix patterns, two were geometric pattern, and one was cloud pattern. In addition, various treasure patterns, character patterns were utilized as supplementary patterns. The flower and phoenix patterns reflect characteristics of the textiles of the 17th century whereas check pattern and cloud pattern were very unique.

근대 한국에 있어 일본제국에 의한 철도건설과 읍치의 변화에 관한 역사적 연구 (A Historical Study of the Railroad Construction by the Empire of Japan and the change of Eupchi in Modern Korea)

  • 김헌규
    • 건축역사연구
    • /
    • 제17권6호
    • /
    • pp.29-44
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper analyses the railroad trunk line constructed in the Korea since the end of the 19th century. The analysis consists of the following problematics. 1) The process of the decision of the railroad route 2) The relationship of the location of Eupchi and the stations By clarifying the above, the purpose of this paper is to clarify how the morphology of the city in Korea has been affected by the change in the relationship with Korea and Japan. The Empire of Japan has been reconnoitering the Korea since way before the formal contract for the railroad construction was signed. Therefore, the Empire of Japan had a very good understanding of the actual transportation system when it started the construction of the railroad. The railroad construction was used by the Empire of Japan to empower the control over the Korea. For this reason, the new railroad system was constructed as a different system from the former transportation system and the urban system was also affected. Also the relationship of the western powers and Japan around the turn of the 20th century defined the characteristic of the railway system as a pathway through the Korean peninsular to link Japan to the continent. Moreover, being apprehensive about the friction with the western, Japan located the railway stations to avoid the missionary land properties. This made it clear that the restraint relationship between Japan and the western affected the urban special structure.

  • PDF

19세기 말 요코하마 외국인거류지의 공간특성 연구 (A Study on the Spatial Characteristic of Yokohama Foreign Concession in the end of 19th Century)

  • 송혜영;김도연;유재우
    • 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
    • /
    • 제34권1호
    • /
    • pp.63-70
    • /
    • 2018
  • The foreign concession of Yokohama was the first downtown formed through the open port of Yokohama. It became a stepping stone to the center of the market economy. Yokohama was regarded as the turning point of modernization in Japanese history and it reached the high light of modern city in Japan. In the nineteenth century the term "open port" which occurred in East Asia was directly connected with modernization. Nevertheless, there is not many researches on architectural history about the central space of the open port city. As the method of research, we examine the parcels and spatial changes that are based on the contents of maps and pictures in terms of architectural history. For the foreign concession that was set up in Yokohama and the first open port in Japan, the spatial scope was set for certain and the temporal range was also set from the setting of the concession in 1859 to the abolition in 1899. The purpose of this study is to consider the future research related to the study of the open port city from the perspective of comparative historical research.

창덕궁 후원의 경관에 관한 소고 -정조의 "상림십경(上林十景)"을 중심으로 (An Interpretation of Landscape of Ch'angdok Palace Rear Garden -Focused on the king Jongjo's "Sangrimshipkyong" Poem-)

  • 이수학
    • 한국조경학회지
    • /
    • 제28권1호
    • /
    • pp.92-108
    • /
    • 2000
  • The rear garden of the Ch'angdok Palace is considered to be representative of gardens of the 15th century to the end of Choson Dynasty in the early 20th century and is very well preserved. Therefore with its long history, it's been represented in various way. This study tried to interprete the rear garden of the Ch'angdok Palace in terms of 'text through king Jungjo's "Sangrimshipkyog". Jungjo's "Sangrimshipkyng" that describes scenery related to ten place of the rear garden of the Ch'angdok Palace was written when he was a crown prince. And the scenery of ten places can't be separated from their physical looks and those ten places were quite different from now. For that reason, to begin with, this study recomposed those ten places through maps and drawings that revived the current looks and rear garden. And what poems tried to tell and what meanings whey had in the literacy of that age that allowed "poem enchained ten scapes" were studied in the context of co-relationship with space. As a text it is very ancient and questions arise on how to correctly interpret the information it holds. But this interpretation is only one side of the various aspects that the rear garden of the Ch'angdok Palace has compared to its long history. In light of the present age an interpretation can have richer and more varied meanings, creating many new viewpoints. creating many new viewpoints.

  • PDF

조선 후기 한성부 상류주택의 반빗간 연구 (A Study on BanBitgan in High-Class Housing in Hanseong-bu (漢城府), Latter Part of the Joseon Dynasty)

  • 강인선;홍승재
    • 한국주거학회논문집
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study analyzed about Banbitgan of Anchae in High-Class Housing in Hanseong-bu (漢城府), Latter Part of Joseon Dynasty, by the drawings of Jangseogak Library. which were drawn the figure of house in Hanseong-bu (漢城府), during from the middle part of 17th Century to the end of 19th Century. These drawings were drawn in the form of Gangado ((間架圖), the layout and floor plan, the function of room of each houses can be examined. Focusing on drawings which the room name was written among those drawings, ascertainable form of Banbitgan. This Study has treated particular houses which houses were verified form of Banbitgan. As the result, it was investigated that Anchae of upper class housing in Hanseong-bu (漢城府), as the place where large-scaled housework was managed, its attached space has ever been developed. Especially, in this Study, by means of concretely research on the space organization of Anchae along with space composition and connection method of Banbitgan, the upper-class housing in Hanseong-bu (漢城府), it was quite examinable on the architectural figure of the upper-class housing in Hanseong-bu (漢城府), During the latter part of the Joseon Dynasty, which was not known well in the meanwhile.